翻译摘要:中国电力发展要给子孙留条活路

中国电力发展要给子孙留条活路

2008-3-24 作者: 孙向方 来自:

“两会”期间,全国政协委员、国家统计局原局长李德水在谈到我国基础设施、基础产业发展时,肯定了电力工业发展的成就。他以发电装机增长为例指出,到去年年底,我国发电装机总容量突破7亿千瓦,相当于英、法、德、意、日五个国家发电装机的总和。

诚如李德水所言,2002年电力体制改革以来,我国发电装机容量一直保持快速发展的势头,从2002年的3.53亿千瓦连续跨跃4、5、6、7亿四大台阶,截至2007年底,我国电力装机已经达到7.13亿千瓦,翻了一番还要多,并且先进机组较多,成就有目共睹。

但我们应该有一个清醒的认识,电力工业是基础产业,而不是支柱产业,电力发展以适度超前,满足经济发展的需求为宜,而不能不顾一切地做大。

电力应该按科学发展的电量需求发展,不能按过去那样大量发展高耗能产业的畸形需求。目前,五大发电集团公司、地方发电集团都把做大作为第一要务,但如果把公用事业、基础产业当作支柱产业盲目发展是很危险的。

目前,电力投资严重过热,电力过剩问题已经显现,然而,“十一五”、“十二五”期间,包括国有五大发电集团公司、地方发电集团都提出了很高的发展目标,由于缺乏资源、环境、运力支撑,很多发展项目是不切合实际的。

电力装机结构也在恶化。到2007年底,全国火力发电装机达5.54亿千瓦,占总装机容量的77.73%,比2002年的2.642亿千瓦增长一倍还要多,火力发电比例明显过高,已经超出了资源支撑和环境承载能力。

我国的能源资源结构是富煤、少气、贫油。但“富煤”仅是相对而言,我国约有1886亿吨的煤炭可采储量,2000年,我国的煤炭产量是10亿吨, 2007年,我国煤炭产量为25.23亿吨,7年时间增加产量近16亿吨,这个数字是惊人的,是大量消耗能源资源、不可持续的发展方式,与科学发展观是相背离的。如果以这样的增长速度,中国的煤炭资源将很快枯竭。

事实上,近年来出现的煤炭紧张已经为火电机组的盲目发展敲响了警钟。以目前的电力结构看,以煤为主的电力结构并没有改变,短时间内也难以改变,已经成为电力可持续发展、经济社会可持续发展的重大挑战。

有一个被普遍认可的观点:随着经济社会发展对电力需求的增加,电力仍然要保持快速发展。笔者认为,这种观点不够全面。电力发展的规模一要统筹考虑能源资源、环境容量约束;二要考虑产业结构调整、节能减排、需求侧管理实施使得能源消耗降低,而不是单纯以经济增长简单地推算电力需求。

首先,要考虑能源资源和环境的支撑能力。

国土资源部2004年统计数据显示,中国共有1886亿吨的煤炭可采储量,每年消耗18亿吨,能用100年,但按照目前的消耗进度,30年也保证不了。笔者早就提出,能源消费不能背离国情,这个国情就是我们有13亿人口,看起来很大的储量,除以13亿就是极度短缺。老百姓有句话,穿衣吃饭量家当,不看我们的家底,盲目发展肯定不行,1886亿吨的煤炭可采储量那经得起7年增产17亿吨这样折腾。这样下去,我们的后代子孙怎么办?

以目前的情况看,以煤为主体的电力产业结构越来越难以支撑,从环境容量看,由于大量使用石化燃料,排放大量温室气体、污染物,环境容量越来越难以支撑,按照目前的消耗速度,再过12年,中国的煤炭产量要达到40亿吨,不要说我们不可能有那么大的产能,即使有,也是极大的灾难,到时候中国将被煤工业污染得没有一片净土。

第二,必须在科学发展观的指导下搞电力规划。

究竟是什么导致2002年严重缺电,至今很多人根本就没有搞明白。说是中国三年不上常规火电发展慢了,经济增长太快了,可这种结论是完全错误的!

深层次的原因是我国在2002年左右,违背科学发展观,大量上许多国家50年代就已经停止生产的高能耗、高污染的项目,造成电力需求的暴发式增长,笔者曾写过一篇《是谁拉紧了电力紧张之弦》,对此进行了全面分析。下一步的电力规划,绝对不能按“十五”的电力需求速度来测算,而要在科学发展观的指导下,考虑我国产业结构调整后,电力需求增速放慢的趋势来测算,否则,这个规划,不仅违背科学发展观,也会造成极大的偏差,导致大量设备闲置和银行严重的金融风险,这不是危言耸听。

中国装机容量为英、法、德、意、日五个国家发电装机的总和,这不值得骄傲。要知道,我国的经济总量目前与德国也就是不相上下,但我们的装机容量是德国的近10倍。在国际分工中,我国产业结构中多以初级产品为主,附加值很低,企业盈利能力差,员工收入低,盲目投资,产能过剩,同行又缺乏协作、过剩后竞相压价,价格暴跌,消耗着宝贵的不可再生能源,污染着环境,却没有赚到钱,这样的路子还能再走吗?

第三,经济增长并不意味着能源消费增长。

很多人一说经济增长就要带来能源消费的增长,这是完全错误的!有两个例子可以说明。

丹麦以农业立国,第二次世界大战后,逐步从农业国发展为工业国。1973年的第一次全球石油危机爆发后,丹麦调整其能源战略,尤其在节能和提高能源利用率方面采取了许多措施,一方面对工业耗电、耗能效率提出限制和高效利用率指标,一方面通过立法、限制以及提高技术等方式,提高电厂的能源使用率。30年来,丹麦经济持续稳定增长,工业化程度上升到90%,人均GDP增长50%,石油消耗量却降低50%,丹麦从能源进口国变成石油和天然气的出口大国。

美国是世界上的第一大能源消费国,但能源的浪费主要体现在消费环节上,美国极为重视生产中的资源利用效率。美国2000年人均GDP比1973年增长了74%,而能源消费并没有增长。据美国能源部预测,到2020年,需要新增发电装机4亿千瓦,但美国计划采用需求侧管理,预计可以减少2.6亿千瓦装机,这对我们应该是一个重大的启示。

在未来电力规划中,我们要充分考虑节能减排和需求侧管理的作用,为什么这样讲,因为我们有巨大的节能潜力,目前,我国能源浪费消耗极大,每万美元消耗矿产资源是日本的7.1倍,美国的5.7倍,甚至是印度的2.8倍。加强需求侧管理能相当于建设几亿千瓦的装机。

综上所述,中国的能源安全面临的形势十分严峻,必须全面综合统筹考虑电力发展问题,改变目前火电一家独大的产业结构,大力发展可再生能源,并给予可再生能源的项目更大的优惠政策;同时,要将推进需求侧管理作为国家行动,大幅度降低能源消耗。否则,可持续发展无法实现,我们也无法向后代子孙交待。

中国电力发展要给子孙留条活路

http://www.315wqchina.com/newsDetail.asp?id=820

China’s Electric Power Development Path Needs to Bear Our Grandchildren in Mind

By Sun Xiangfang, a Xinhua Press Agency journalist who has followed the PRC electric power industry for ten years.

Summary: The director of the National Bureau of Statistics of China Li Deshui in March 2008 announced that China’s electric power generation capacity now equaled the combined electric power generation capacity of the UK, France, Germany, Italy and Japan. China’s electric power generation capacity more than doubled from 353 million kilowatts in 2002 to 713 million kilowatts in 2007.

China’s electric power industry, we must remember, is the foundation of the economy and not merely its pillar. It needs to run in advance of demand, but not just grew for the sake of growing.  There has been too much investment in electric power and excess capacity is beginning to appear. The structure of electric power generation has deteriorated. As of the end of 2007, China’s fossil fuel powered power generation capacity totaled 554 million kilowatts or 77.3% of total capacity.

This is more than double the fossil fuel powered electric power generation capacity of 264 million kilowatt capacity of 2002. The proportion of fossil fuel powered electric power generation capacity in the mix is already too great and exceeds what our resources and environment can support.

China is rich in coal but poor in natural gas and petroleum. China has 188.6 billion tons of exploitable coal resources. In 2000, China mined 1 billion tons of coal. In 2007 it mined 2.523 billion tons of coal. In just seven years, coal production grew by 1.6 billion tons. This big expenditure in energy resources is not sustainable and not in accord with the scientific development concept. If China’s coal consumption continues to increase like this, it will quickly exhaust its coal reserves.

In fact, the shortages of coal seen over the past several years have sounded the alarm about the unbridled increase in fossil fuel powered electric power generation capacity. If China does soon change the structure of its electric power generating capacity which chiefly relies on fossil fuels for electric power generation, it will become a severe challenge to the development of electric power, the economy and society.

The prevailing view is that electric power generation must develop rapidly to meet the demand of rapid social and economic development. I believe that this misses the full picture. The development of electric power must consider energy resource and environmental constraints, consider how the structure of industry can be adjusted, energy conservation and emissions reductions, demand management to reduce energy consumption. Simply looking at economic growth to calculate electric power demand is not correct.

First, Consider Resources and the Carrying Capacity of the Environment

The PRC Ministry of Land and Resources 2004 statistics show that China has a total of 188.6 billion tons of exploitable coal reserves. If China mines 1.8 billion tons of coal every year, the reserves will last 100 years. But at the current rate of increase, we can’t even be certain that they will last 30 years. Energy consumption has to take national conditions into account. China has a population of 1.3 billion. If our coal consumption keeps climbing the way it has over the past seven years, what will our grandchildren do?

The current structure of electric power production will become harder and harder to sustain.  From an environmental capacity perspective, using more fossil fuels will result in more greenhouse gas emissions and pollution. At the current rate, in another 12 years China’s coal production will reach 4.0 billion tons annually. Not that it would be impossible to mine that much coal, but if we did, every single bit of China will be covered by industrial pollution.

The deep cause is that in 2002 China built many projects using technologies that other countries had stopped using in the 1950s, blindly building to demand projections rather than considering energy savings possible with industrial restructuring. Although China’s installed electric power generating capacity matches the total of the UK, France, Germany, Italy and Japan, we should not be proud of that. China has about the same size economy as Germany but ten times the electric power generating capacity. In the international division of labor, China is characterized by production of primary products with a low value added, low enterprise profits, low wages, unrestrained investment, excess production capacity, poor cooperation with industries, and price crashes due to excess capacity, and a polluted environment.

Some countries have achieved significant GDP growth while reducing energy consumption. Over the past 30 years, Denmark’s per capita GDP has grown by 50% while oil consumption has halved. The U.S. economy is much more energy efficient than in was in 1973.  China has a great potential to achieve energy conservation since for every 10,000 U.S. dollars in GDP, Japan is seven times as efficient and the U.S. is 5.7 times as efficient as China. The Indian economy is 2.8 times as energy efficient as the PRC economy.

This entry was posted in Economy 经济, Environment 环境, Society 社会 and tagged , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

One Response to 翻译摘要:中国电力发展要给子孙留条活路

  1. Yaxley Y. says:

    Wow,never imagined a foreign guy proficient in Mandarin(and C-E Translation)!
    I gotta prepare my weekly english speech training,in which electricity shortage is the next topic to present(then comes the serendipity,vous~).
    like those so-called social focus we need to deal with(3-minute-speech and question answering)are all economic and political pandemonium…
    I should say I’m somehow dying to know ya~~haha
    C’est tres cool!

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