PRC academics on “Temporal evolution and mechanism of Sino-US geopolitical influence in South Asia”

This recent article in a Chinese geography journal,  Acta Geographica Sinica,  Temporal evolution and mechanism of Sino-US geopolitical influence in South Asia [中美在南亚地缘影响力的时空演变及机制 online in Chinese at   http://www.geog.com.cn/article/2015/0375-5444/36567 ] examines how changing US and China soft and hard power perceptions in South Asia are affecting the relative influence of the US and China in the region.

The author collects a variety of hard and soft power data for five South Asian countries over the past decade and sees China moving ahead.  The authors note a reversal of this trend in 2012 when US influence in the region increased more than China’s.   The data is fuzzy but the trends are interesting.

I copied below a Google Translate translation of the article (in Chinese at http://www.geog.com.cn/article/2015/0375-5444/36567 ).    This article is written in fairly simple declarative sentences so it is particularly suited for a machine translation.   Skim it for the useful parts, the robot grammatical infelicities aren’t too serious here.

Aside from the information presented, one can see Chinese assumptions about a declining US since 2008.  This is likely one of those extrapolations that often lead academics astray, especially considering more recent economic trends and growing security concerns about Chinese bullying.   Looking at the sources of information is interesting too, including how foreign ideas about soft power and even public diplomacy are influencing China.  The endnotes reflect the fact that Xi Jinping’s one belt one road strategy has been inspiring a great deal of current research on Chinese influence and strategy in Chinese academic journals.

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The figure above shows PRC influence in the South Asia region exceeding that of the US after 2003.

Section 4.2 relating to soft power and increasing Chinese stress on public diplomacy is especially interesting.  I’ll copy it up top here; the full translated text is just below.

4.2 Soft Power

Hard strength to provide the material basis for the development of soft power, and hard power soft power to enhance the spirit of giving guidance. Both are serving to enhance the international image and geopolitical influence in a country [26 ]. With the changing times, the traditional hard power in the realization of national interests and international influence in expanding the role played by the increasingly restricted 27 ], and the role of soft power in enhancing the country’s external influence in the increasingly prominent. In the 1990s, the famous American political scientist, former Assistant Secretary of Defense Joseph Nye of the “soft power” and “smart power” concept, becoming the axis of the Obama administration’s diplomatic strategy. Joseph believes Soft power is an integral part of national foreign strategy is one source of national influence, the expansion of foreign influence can play an important role 28 , 29 ]. Chinese strategists also generally agreed that soft power is an important indicator of a country’s international status and influence. Countries need hard power to soft power also need to be flexible and internationally competitive edge in the international political arena 30 ].

Through public diplomacy, to “attract” and “agenda-setting” behavior in recent years, America’s soft power has been increasing. American popular culture is open, flexible, pluralism, individualism, populism and liberal values ​​and other elements to attract a lot of people’s eyes in the world, and to help the United States achieve a number of major foreign policy objectives 31 ]. That is the core values ​​of American federalism, democracy and open markets are the soft power of external radiation, enhance the attractiveness of the important resources 32 ]. In foreign policy, the United States promote the common values ​​of democracy and human rights, in order to obtain approval of the world.

In recent years, soft power has played an active role in the expansion of China’s geopolitical influence in South Asian countries and regions in. Culturally, China’s traditional culture gradually into the global epidemic Circle. Each year the number of overseas students studying in China increasing, foreign tourists also increased significantly. Chinese around the world to establish 471 Confucius Institutes and 730 Confucius Classrooms, distributed in 125 countries (regions) 33 ].China Radio International broadcasts in English increases. Also strengthen investment in outreach areas, Xinhua News Agency also created a 24-hour news channel. Diplomatically, China “bringing harmony, security and prosperity to neighbors” peripheral diplomacy as well as establish a “rational, loving, responsible and non-dilated,” the international image, easing fears the rise of China’s neighboring countries to correct the international community wrong understanding of China, and expand the positive influence of China’s foreign 34 ].


Shufang, Geyue Jing, Liu Yuli Sino-US geopolitical influence in South temporal evolution and mechanism 70 (6):.. 864-878 [Shufang WANG, Yuejing GE, Yuli LIU The spatio-temporal evolution and driving mechanism of geopolitical influence of China and the US in South Asia [J] “Geographical Journal” editorial department, 70 (6): 864-878]

Temporal evolution and mechanism of Sino-US geopolitical influence in South Asia

Shufang 1, 2  , Ge Yuejing 1  , Liu Yuli 1 

Summary

Key words: geopolitical influence; temporal and spatial variation; evolution mechanism; South Asia; China; USA

The spatio-temporal evolution and driving mechanism of geopolitical influence of China and the US in South Asia

Shufang WANG 1, 2  , Yuejing GE 1  , Yuli LIU 1 

Abstract

Keyword: geopolitics influence; spatio-temporal changes; evolution mechanism; South Asia; China; the US

Show Figures

1 Introduction

Today the international community has entered the era of the centers of power shift and power structure adjustment, “the strength to become a more transformative weaker, less mandatory, tends to be more intangible” 1 ].Focus political attention gradually from external influence state power steering state. South Asia, the US and China is an important geostrategic region: on the one hand, South brink of China’s important maritime transport channel “Indian Ocean” and the western border areas of China, for China’s economic and trade development as well as security and stability have underestimated the role; the other On the one hand, the US economic recession and maintain strategic intent global hegemony and promote the implementation of the United States’ Asia-Pacific rebalancing “strategy to boost its own economic growth, while enhancing its presence and influence in Asia. In addition, the two countries as an important SAARC observer countries affects cooperation and development in South Asia. So how will the country of influence with fuzzy quantitative manner shown, to provide a new perspective of a country’s external capacity analysis? Proposed the concept of geopolitical influence of contemporary international relations conforms to the trends in the power structure, will be the measure of the national and international an important indicator of the image. It covers the hard power, soft power and interdependent forces  ( word comes from Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye co “power and interdependence.” Authors believe asymmetric interdependence is a source of power. the degree of asymmetric interdependence determines the size of the other party influence, thus referred to herein as interdependent force.), it is a comprehensive reflection of the country’s external competence. Therefore, geopolitical influence of external research to understand the actual capacity of countries today, analyzes the strengths and weaknesses of the country’s external projection of power, and provide a reference for the country’s image-building.

National influence is the ability to play the role of a country to other countries or regions, the emphasis is the ability to change. And geopolitical influence is massing geopolitical body capacity under moment the combined effect of geopolitical body between manifested 2 ], we have stressed the comprehensive national strength, but also taking into account the inter-state physical distance and national-friendly distance. The latter is based on the former basis, taking into account the degree of association between each other regional countries and nations. In the 1990s, Harvard University political science professor Joseph Nye number of issues related to influence, namely the ever-changing international environment to understand how changes in national influence? After the Cold War, in the new international environment, the United States What kind of tools needed and the ability to maintain influence in the world 3 , 4 ]? Are influential countries can be quantified and measured, can be assessed and forecast? These academic research has become a topic of concern. Fu Mengzi that the international influence of the state is real and tangible, but the state more influence is a vague concept, difficult to quantitatively, because the analysis of the influence of the State need to consider many factors, such as strength, power, domestic and foreign Information, Policy and effectiveness 5 ]. – Wu Tiechuan considers that the national influence from hard power and soft power, hard power which is manifested as economic, military, science and technology, which can be quantified; and soft power is invisible to influence his country’s willingness to spiritual power, is uncontrollable, unpredictable and non-quantitative 6 , 7 ]. Some scholars believe that the influence of the State depends on a country’s total population, economic size, military strength and the breadth and depth of historical and cultural ties and the like. These factors can be measured, and lists the formula to measure the influence of the country 10 ]. In 2008, the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and the Korea Institute of East Asian way through the questionnaire scoring quantification of soft power in Asia launched a poll. The results show that most people believe that China’s influence in Asia rising and produced a “positive” effect 8 ]. China’s influence in the international arena gradually increased, the impact on other emerging economies is increasing 9 ].

Geopolitical influence in the country comes from hard power, soft power and interdependent forces. Hard power as a material force, the efficiency of a country’s development is the external manifestations, is the cornerstone of a country’s external influence force; and soft power as a spiritual force, is the core foundation of a country’s culture and institutions [19 ]. Interdependence is neither force nor hard power soft power, are interrelated mutual penetration among countries. Interdependence force is through trade and investment between economies reflect, to some extent reflects a country’s geopolitical influence in his country or region.

From reading the literature shows that the State can not influence is not quantitative, some scholars and research institutions try to soft power and influence national study to quantify. Other literature relevant national influence, mainly from the political and economic 11 , 12 ], national and ethnic cultures 13 , 14 ], the national image 15 , 16 ] and the international spread of 17 , 18 ] analyzed the perspectives unfold.

Although the current literature to try from the perspective of different disciplines and different entry points to influence national study done some positive and beneficial to explore, but existing research has not yet formed a clear theoretical framework, there is no unique theoretical interpretation. Qualitative research methods using a static description and horizontal comparison, the main disciplinary perspectives research in international relations and political science, research focused discussion of comprehensive national strength and national influence one aspect. Existing research has the following disadvantages: first, a single perspective, the perspective of the lack of cross-disciplinary integration, such as national relations and geopolitics cross, political science and geography of the cross; and second, the current study used static, qualitative Analysis Method of hard power, soft power and interdependent forces, the lack of dynamic, quantitative analysis, it is difficult to fully and timely grasp of the national reality of geopolitical influence characteristics and trends; and third, research focuses on the internal single-factor analysis of national strength, the lack of Comprehensive analysis of the elements, but also the lack of national strength, to explore the influence of national and geopolitical influence relations.

In this paper, geography, international relations and political science perspective, the use of mathematical modeling method of Sino-US geopolitical influence in South temporal variation and evolution mechanism. Research aimed at retaining the form of the language on formal models, trying to help modeling approach national geopolitical realities influence the evolution of the real track, explore the scientific method and model of a national geopolitical influence evaluation.

2 study area and methods

2.1 Regional

South Asia, including India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and the Maldives seven countries ( Figure 1 ), with a total area of about 5.03 million km 2, the total population of over 1.6 billion (2012). From the geographical point of view, South Asia is the outer edge of Eurasia crescent in the middle, the guardian of the Asia and Oceania leading maritime transport routes in Europe and Africa, near the Persian Gulf oil-producing region, overlooking the East-West major oil channel, its strategic position is very important, is directly related to China’s “energy channel security” 20 ].From border security point of view, the situation in South Asia that is directly related to China’s southwestern border of Xinjiang and Tibet of security, stability and development 21 ]. Based on the above two considerations, paper selects South Asia, for example, study the evolution of the past 10 years in South China and the US geopolitical influence. In the Select time series, taking 2003 as a starting point, once every two years is estimated a total of six years to forget geopolitical influence, generally reflects the dynamic changes in South China and the US geopolitical influence.

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Figure 1 position in South Asia schematic Fig. 1 Location of South Asian countries

2.2 Research Methods

Geopolitical factors influence the selection of the index system 2.2.1 Indicators used in all levels of experience to judge selected and logical reasoning. Selection of indicators, including a hard power, soft power and interdependent forces.On the basis of outstanding dominant factors and operational principles, selection indicators draw hard power and comprehensive national strength reference Klein’s calculations, including the basic strength, economic strength, military strength and technological strength. Indicators have selected the soft power lies outside of attraction and radiation 22 ],were selected policy and institutional, national image and cultural exchanges three indicators. Interdependence of nations forces index reference “Power and Interdependence” 9 ], a book of international trade and direct investment to expression ( Table 1 ).

Table 1 constitute Tab geopolitical influence index system. 1 The index system of geopolitical influence

Construction of potential difference and potential of spatial interaction model is 2.2.2, and various forms of “force” the important reasons and key drive. Behind geopolitical influence is inseparable position and influence potential inherent differences in countries and regions in which the area. Based on this, a reference for a potential model for the region, combined with geopolitical influence index system constructed geopolitical influence model:

P i = ( H j + S j + M j ) e – r i j (1)

Where: i represents a country geopolitical influence in another country or region i’s; H j j represents the country hard power; j represents soft power; j represents interdependent force. ij represents a country to an integrated distance j i region. This equation shows that a country’s geopolitical influence in certain areas subject to two aspects: First, the power of the size of the country itself; the second is a specific region of the distance from the National friendliness and diplomacy.

Referring to Klein’s comprehensive national assessment framework, the basic strength of the A j, economic strengthA j, military strength A j, scientific and technological strength A j set different weights index  ( weight value is set to take twenty-two Index Comparison of heavy weight discriminant analysis method, with the expertise and experience of the comparative advantages of rational pairwise relative importance of indicators and judgment.), respectively, 1 / 5,2 / 5,3 / 10 and 1/10.

H i = 1 5 A 1 j + 2 5 A 2 j + 3 10 A 3 j + 1 10 A 4 j (2)

Where: A j represents national population and area; A j represents the gross domestic product; A j represents national military strength; A 4j represents national scientific and technological strength. j represents the soft power mainly by policy and institutional B j, B j image of the country and cultural exchanges B j, constitute.

S j = B 1 j + B 2 j + B 3 j (3)

Where: B j represents national policies and institutions, with the stability of the national development model and self-tuning capabilities to represent; B j represents the country’s image, the number of times indicated by the amount of official development assistance and foreign peacekeeping operations; B j representatives of cultural transmission and attractive, with exports and the number of overseas students Filmography represented.

Interdependence power of a country depends on the formation of an asymmetric dependence on another country’s trade and the importance of bilateral trade relations 23 ]. Therefore, under the authority of interdependence measure the following formula:

M j = φ j 1 – φ ji % ) + I ji (4)

Where: j represents power in asymmetrical interdependence in country j obtained; φ j J represents the country’s total trade; φ ji J i represents the country and the country’s total trade volume of trade accounted for the proportion of country j; I ji J represents a total investment of country i States.

Table 2 Evolution of the United States in the South Asian countries of geopolitical influence Tab. 2 The geopolitical influence of China and the US in South Asian countries

Integrated distance into account both the physical distance between countries, but also takes into account the distance between the friendly countries. Physical distance is the actual distance between the countries, represented by the distance between the center of gravity of the country; the distance between the friendly countries refers to the degree of intimacy between the two countries, with 1 to 9 means “friendship between countries distance” between the two countries, of which 9 represents the most hostile 1 represents the closest.

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2 the United States in South Asia geopolitical influencediagram evolution Fig. 2 The evolution of geopolitical influence of China and the US in South Asian countries

Because of the geographic impact indicators system, the physical meaning of the indicators are different, so this original value of the non-dimensional data processing. In the original values ​​are normalized, respectively, after measure out hard power and soft power interdependence of the overall strength of the force, or the like, then consider a combination of the distance between the countries, come to influence a country’s geopolitical value in a particular country or region.

2.2.3 Data Sources This selection reflected the basic strength, economic strength, military strength, policies and institutions, national image, cultural exchange, foreign trade and investment data. Data from the official website and related statistical yearbook, including South Asian Studies database (South Asia Archive), World Bank public databases (www.worldbank.org.cn), People’s Republic of China National Bureau of Statistics website (www.stats.gov.cn/ tjsj / ndsj), Chinese Ministry of Commerce website (http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/), Chinese Association of Higher Education Foreign Students Education Administration Branch (www.cafsa.org.cn/index.php?mid=6&tid= 603), US Department of Commerce website (http://www.commerce.gov/), the US National Bureau of Statistics Web site (http://www.census.gov/), the US Bureau of Economic Analysis website (http: // www. bea.gov/), the United Nations peacekeeping website (www.un.org/zh/peacekeeping), UNESCO website (www.uis.unesco.org/Pages/default.aspx), “China’s foreign aid” white paper Wait.

Table 3 nearly 10 years of Sino-US geopolitical influence in South Asia Tab. 3The geopolitical influence of China and the US in the South Asian region over the past decade

3 temporal evolution of Sino-US geopolitical influence in South Asia

3.1 Sino-US space-time evolution of the South Asian countries geopolitical influence

From the space perspective, the past 10 years, China in the geopolitical Pakistan influential in India and Sri Lanka to a small margin of influence; and US geopolitical India influential, edge influence in Sri Lanka and the Maldives to the more small. From the time point of view, China geopolitical influence in South Asian countries can be divided into two phases as a whole.

The first phase (2003-2007). During this period, China geopolitical influence in South Asia rises slowly. 2003 Chinese in Pakistan (8.93) is the largest geopolitical influence, while in Sri Lanka (5.15) and the Maldives (5.15) of geopolitical influence is minimized. 2007, China’s largest country in South Asia geopolitical influence is still in Pakistan, to enhance value from 8.93 to 10.08, rose to a lesser extent, while in Sri Lanka geopolitical influence lowest (6.76).

The second phase (2008-2012). Although affected by the global financial crisis, China’s geopolitical influence in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and the Maldives have ups and downs, but the geopolitical influence of China in South Asia overall upward trend, enhance the rate larger than the previous stage. 2012 China’s influence in South Asia, seven countries are descending Pakistan (14.88), Nepal (12.18), Bhutan (11.59), Bangladesh (11.03), the Maldives (9.49), India (9.03), Sri Lanka ( 9.03). Apart from India, the 2012 China geopolitical influence in South Asia than in other countries the United States is high. Chinese influence in Pakistan rose from 8.93 in 2003 to 14.88 in 2012. China’s influence in India, from 2003 5.69 2012 9.03 all the way up, but still lower than the US 1.32.

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3 Sino-US geopolitical influence in South Asia FIG overall change Fig. 3 The changes of geopolitical influence of China and the US in the South Asian region

US geopolitical influence in South Asia can be divided into three stages in general.

The first phase (2003-2007). During this period, in addition to outside Pakistan and Bhutan, US geopolitical influence in other South Asian countries showed a slow upward trend. 2003, US geopolitical influence in Pakistan, the largest (10.1), geopolitical influence in the Maldives the smallest (6.9).

The second phase (2008-2009). US geopolitical influence in South Asia is still an upward trend. 2009 US influence in Pakistan to the edge of the largest (9.53), and geopolitical influence in the Maldives, the smallest (7.20).

The third phase (2010-2012). During this period, US geopolitical influence in South Asian countries began to decline.In 2011 the biggest drop, then began to rise.2012, US influence in South Asia, seven countries are descending India (10.35), Pakistan (9.85), Bangladesh (9.37), Nepal (8.91), Bhutan (8.65), Sri Lanka (7.52), Maldives (7.44). US influence in India, rose from 7.48 in 2003 to 10.35 in 2012, in Pakistan’s influence, from 10.10 in 2003 declined slightly to 9.85 in 2012.

Overall, 2003-2012 10 years, Sino-US geopolitical influence in South Asian countries showed a slowly rising trend in slight fluctuations in. 2003 – 2007, China’s geopolitical influence in South Asia increased slightly, from 10% to 38%; and 2007–2012 years, growth expanded at between 15% to 48%. US geopolitical influence in the South Asian countries of the slow improvements in slight fluctuations. In 2003, the US geopolitical influence in the South Asian countries are higher than in China; in 2007 and 2011 are the two low periods, geopolitical influence declined, somewhat elevated in 2009, 2012 continue to rise.

3.2 Sino-US space-time in the South Asian region as a whole geopolitical influence in the evolution of

The past 10 years, China geopolitical influence in South Asia increased year by year, increased from 7.31 in 2003 to 11.59 in 2012, up 58.55 percent ratio. US geopolitical influence in South Asia despite slight fluctuations, but also slowly rising, increased from 7.86 in 2003 to 8.31 in 2012, an increase ratio of 5.73%. From the growth rate to see, in 2003–2012 years, China geopolitical influence in South Asia, growth was much faster than in the United States. From the comparison between the two, the Sino-US geopolitical influence in South Asia can be divided into three stages.

The first phase (2003-2004) US geopolitical influence in South Asia than in China large. In 2003, the US geopolitical influence in South Asia to 7.86, China is 7.31.

The second phase (2005-2009) China geopolitical influence in South Asia than in the US large gap is widening. In 2005, China geopolitical influence in South Asia is 8.62, the United States is 7.79. In 2009, China’s influence is 12.08, the United States is 7.42. Chinese geopolitical influence in rising, while the United States has declined, the gap between the two geopolitical influence gradually increases.

The third phase (2010-2012) China geopolitical influence in South Asia than in the US large gap has narrowed. 2011, China geopolitical influence in South Asia 11.12, 7.73 US; in 2012, the Sino-US geopolitical influence are rising, China geopolitical influence to increase slightly to 11.59, the United States rose to 8.31.

4 Analysis of the Sino-US geopolitical influence in South Asia, the evolution of the factors

National geopolitical influence the strength is affected by many factors, mainly depends on hard power, soft power, interdependence and friction. Among them, the hard power and soft power is the dominant factor in geopolitical influence, from the pull effect; interdependent forces are secondary factors geopolitical influence, from the thrust; and friction factor is the weakening of geopolitical influence, from the reverse force . The four together, causing the evolution of Sino-US geopolitical influence in South Asia.

4.1 hard power

Hard power is the country’s own geopolitical weight (including land area, population, economy, military affairs and science and technology) is a comprehensive reflection, is an important support national geopolitical influence. The size of the hard power of the State to determine the status of a country in the international community, the role and voice of 24 ]. In today’s international arena, there is not enough hard power support, the state is difficult to have the right to speak and international influence.

The early 1990s, after the Cold War, the United States as the world’s only superpower, the GDP has been ranked first in the world. 2012, US GDP $ 16.24 trillion; China $ 8.23 ​​trillion GDP is 50.65 percent of the total US economy; India’s $ 1.86 trillion GDP, the United States 11.44%; Maldives GDP 22.22 billion US dollars, the United States 0.137 % 25 ].Hard power with a strong foundation, America’s global geostrategic influence in the world. So, nearly 10 years, the US geopolitical influence in South Asian countries and regions, the rise in the small vibration. While China since the reform and opening up, the economy has been in a rapid growth trend. Especially since the 21 century, China’s economic development into the fast lane, hard power quickly enhance overall national strength growing geopolitical influence is also rising, especially in China’s neighboring countries and regions.

4.2 Soft Power

Hard strength to provide the material basis for the development of soft power, and hard power soft power to enhance the spirit of giving guidance. Both are serving to enhance the international image and geopolitical influence in a country [26 ]. With the changing times, the traditional hard power in the realization of national interests and international influence in expanding the role played by the increasingly restricted 27 ], and the role of soft power in enhancing the country’s external influence in the increasingly prominent. In the 1990s, the famous American political scientist, former Assistant Secretary of Defense Joseph Nye of the “soft power” and “smart power” concept, becoming the axis of the Obama administration’s diplomatic strategy. Joseph believes Soft power is an integral part of national foreign strategy is one source of national influence, the expansion of foreign influence can play an important role 28 , 29 ]. Chinese strategists also generally agreed that soft power is an important indicator of a country’s international status and influence. Countries need hard power to soft power also need to be flexible and internationally competitive edge in the international political arena 30 ].

Through public diplomacy, to “attract” and “agenda-setting” behavior in recent years, America’s soft power has been increasing. American popular culture is open, flexible, pluralism, individualism, populism and liberal values ​​and other elements to attract a lot of people’s eyes in the world, and to help the United States achieve a number of major foreign policy objectives 31 ]. That is the core values ​​of American federalism, democracy and open markets are the soft power of external radiation, enhance the attractiveness of the important resources 32 ]. In foreign policy, the United States promote the common values ​​of democracy and human rights, in order to obtain approval of the world.

In recent years, soft power has played an active role in the expansion of China’s geopolitical influence in South Asian countries and regions in. Culturally, China’s traditional culture gradually into the global epidemic Circle. Each year the number of overseas students studying in China increasing, foreign tourists also increased significantly. Chinese around the world to establish 471 Confucius Institutes and 730 Confucius Classrooms, distributed in 125 countries (regions) 33 ].China Radio International broadcasts in English increases. Also strengthen investment in outreach areas, Xinhua News Agency also created a 24-hour news channel. Diplomatically, China “bringing harmony, security and prosperity to neighbors” peripheral diplomacy as well as establish a “rational, loving, responsible and non-dilated,” the international image, easing fears the rise of China’s neighboring countries to correct the international community wrong understanding of China, and expand the positive influence of China’s foreign 34 ].

4.3 interdependence force

Interdependence of state power in the formation of the strength determines the size of the national and international influence. In world politics, interdependence means that interactions between countries or between the situation in different countries actors 9 ]. Constructivists believe interactive practice between countries so that they produce a mutual experience, mutual expectations and mutual recognition, mutual recognition of such a country to determine the identity of other countries with respect to positioning 35 ] that a State other countries degree of influence. Thomas Schelling pointed out that interdependence is actually a mixed motive game, conflict and harmony are the full performance, and power is inherent interdependent factors 36 ]. Neoliberal representative Keohane and Nye also emphasized asymmetrical interdependence is a source of power. Dependent small actors often interdependent as a power source, bargaining on certain issues or other issues so as to affect 9 ]. It can be seen that power is interdependent core, and the powers in the interdependence of the formation of a source of national geopolitical influence.

The past 10 years, Sino-US trade and investment in the South Asian countries continues to increase, while South Asia and Central America asymmetric interdependence is increasing. In this process, China and the US geopolitical influence in South Asian countries showed a slow upward trend in the slight fluctuations, indicating the influence of the United States in the form of asymmetric interdependence is also improving.

4.4 friction

Friction is hindered relative motion of objects (or relative motion trends) of force, contrary to the direction of relative motion of the object. Distance is a source of friction friction generated. Friction distance by the physical distance and the distance between the composition of a friendly country. Geopolitical influence in the country and friction inversely proportional to distance. The longer the distance and the greater physical distance between the friendly countries, the greater the friction distance, the less geopolitical influence; and vice versa. This suggests that the influence of geopolitical subject physical distance, was the spatial distribution of distance attenuation. Meanwhile, relations between countries are determined closeness national geopolitical influence the strength to some extent.

China in the Maldives and Sri Lanka lower geopolitical influence, partly by limiting physical distance. Seven South Asian countries, India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan and the Chinese territory bordering the closer the physical distance between countries; and Sri Lanka and the Maldives are China’s coastal country, distance. The Chinese in Pakistan, US geopolitical influence in India is higher, to a large extent due to the distance between countries is small and friendly.

5 mechanism of Sino-US geopolitical influence in South Asia, evolution

Sino-US geopolitical influence in South Asia whether evolution inevitability? What is the mechanism of evolution is? Which driving force to promote the evolution of geopolitical influence? How are among the driving forces interact. Geopolitical influence of evolutionary mechanisms of revealing and understanding conducive to clear and accurate understanding of the changes in China and the US geopolitical influence in South Asia, and help make a preliminary judgment on the trends.

In the evolution of Sino-US geopolitical influence in South Asia, geopolitical location, the result of geopolitical, geo-economic and geo-cultural nonlinear interaction of various systems ( Figure 4 ). Geographical location where the country’s geopolitical influence in the evolution of constraints force is the dominant geopolitical power, is the driving force of the geo-economic, geopolitical culture is radiation. Geo-political, geo-economic and geo-cultural constraints in the development of mutually promote each other. Geo-location is the geographical basis geo-economic development is the geo-cultural genes “soil.”

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4 Country geopolitical influence diagram evolution mechanism Fig. 4 The driving mechanism of geo-influenceevolution

5.1 Geographical Location – restricting force

Country where the location reveals the extent of the relationship and influence between countries in space 10 ].Geopolitical location of the country determines the physical distance between countries distance, thereby affecting the degree of inter-country geo-economic cooperation. Geographically, if relations between adjacent countries, and in the unnatural barrier zone, normal political dealings, then the time from the distance between the national economy and economic cooperation on the short, geo-economic cooperation opportunities to many.

From the geopolitical location, near China South Asia, more than the United States has geographical advantages.Seven South Asian countries, India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh and neighboring China, the physical distance is shorter, relatively low commodity transportation costs. Since the state geographical proximity, the late 1990s, China put forward economic cooperation in areas of India, Burma and Bangladesh. For the common economic interests, with complementary resources and products, trying to build symbiotic economic sectors 37 ], while China played a leading role. Bangladesh economic corridor in India and Burma is on the use of China’s capital, the economy mode, infrastructure and technology to speed up the transportation and infrastructure, India, Myanmar, Bangladesh region, to carry out traffic interconnection, investment, border trade, infrastructure construction, labor export cooperation 38 ]. Through the promotion of China and India, Myanmar and Bangladesh, three pragmatic cooperation in neighboring countries to obtain economic benefits and gradually “spillover” to the political arena, and ultimately the regional economic and social development and stability. Therefore, geographical location at a specific time and space environment to determine the size of the country’s geopolitical influence.

5.2 Geopolitics – Leading Force

The past 10 years, China in Pakistan’s geopolitical influential, and geopolitical influence in India is small. US geopolitical influence in India is large, and geopolitical influence in the Maldives is small. Explore the causes behind the phenomenon, difficult to find, geopolitics played a significant role.

Fig. 5

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5 Figure 2013 GDP of the world’s major countries and regions (one trillion US dollars) Fig. 5 The GDP in the Major Countries and Regions in 2013 (trillion Dollars)

With the rapid economic development in East Asia, the United States announced in 2011 the strategic focus eastwards from Europe, the Middle East and the Gulf region, the implementation of “Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy” 8] . United States strengthened economic ties with India. Currently, the US has become India’s largest trading and investment partner. With the improvement of the investment environment in India, US capital investment in India will be a substantial increase, especially business processing and outsourcing. In contrast, economic cooperation, regional economic integration and India development process is very slow. Sino-Indian bilateral trade is very unbalanced. According to Chinese Customs statistics, bilateral trade volume in 2013 more than 65 billion US dollars. Among them, India’s exports to China of $ 14.5 billion, imports amounted to $ 513.7, trade deficit of nearly $ 40 billion 47 ] . After the financial crisis, the Indian trade protectionism, anti-dumping on Chinese goods policy, bilateral economic and trade relations impact.

China and Pakistan, the two sides in the economic, commercial and cultural fields to carry out all-round exchanges and cooperation to build a highly effective, practical and flexible framework, promote pragmatic cooperation, bilateral economic and trade cooperation has improved continuously. 2012 bilateral trade volume reached 12.4 billion US dollars, an increase of 17.6%. Chinese investment in Pakistan in terms of infrastructure, energy and mineral resources to maintain steady growth. May 2013, Prime Minister Li Keqiang build a “China-Pakistan economic corridor”, provides a strong platform for cooperation and interoperability dynamic economic development of China and Pakistan. It is foreseeable that China geopolitical influence in Pakistan will not be weakened, but growing. This from a geo-economic point of view the interpretation of the causes of the United States in India, China, Pakistan’s geopolitical influence in the higher force.

5.4 Geoculture – radiation

Different values ​​and ideologies between the two countries, South Asian countries had a different appeal, appeal and identity. In the government, the South Asian countries and the United States political system similar. South Asia, except Bhutan parliamentary system of constitutional monarchy, the other six countries are democratic republic, in which India, Bangladesh, Nepal, implementing a parliamentary republic, while Pakistan, Sri Lanka, the Maldives is a presidential republic implemented. Culturally, American popular culture, such as the basic elements of freedom, leisure, vitality, liberation, modern, vibrant 32 ] and other South Asian countries, people, especially the younger generation has a strong appeal.

Between China and South Asian countries have deep historical and cultural roots, it has a similar history of development orientation, have similar geopolitical objective, which constitutes a solid foundation for closer exchanges between China and South Asia 48 ] . Chinese and South Asian Cultural Exchange began in the Western Han Dynasty Han Dynasty.Eastern Han Dynasty, Buddhism from India into China. Look at the world from a civilized process, India close cultural ties, with the same structure and complementary 49 ] . Cultural interaction caused by the spread of Buddhism also extends to the mathematics, literature, linguistics, architecture, medicine and music, and other fields. In addition, China launched a civilization contemporary charm “radiation diplomacy”, the act of state of China’s rise, soften civilized behavior 47 ] . In order to build a harmonious and prosperous surrounding regions, China is committed to the establishment of a “harmonious but different” new order of international culture 50 ] , respect for cultural differences, different cultures expand “homogeneity.” To this end, China from a strategic height and the overall perspective of the surrounding cultural diplomacy work system design and three-dimensional layout, a series of cultural exchange activities, there are exchanges of religion, adding the Confucius Institute, China increased student funding, culture Friendship Year established organized activities and Friendship Association, the Chinese image in the South Asia region has been greatly improved, thus gradually enhance China’s cultural influence in South Asia 3 ] . As of October 2014, in Asia, China Confucius Institutes across 32 countries (regions) a total of 102, including South Asia, 7; 14 Confucius Classrooms opened throughout the KMT and 58, including South Asia, there are five ( Table 4 ).

Table 4 South Asian countries opened Confucius Institutes and Confucius Classrooms case Tab. 4 The Confucius Institutes and Confucius Classrooms in South Asia
  1. Conclusions and Outlook

By constructing geopolitical influence index system and mathematical model of the evolution in time and space in South China and the United States and geopolitical influence in South Asia, and resolve the factors affecting the evolution of geopolitical influence and driving mechanism, draw the following conclusions:

(1) in the last 10 years, the Sino-US geopolitical influence in South Asia showed an increasing trend in the slight fluctuations. From the growth rate, China’s geopolitical influence in South Asia, the growth rate faster than the United States. In 2012, China geopolitical influence in Pakistan’s largest, geopolitical influence in Sri Lanka and India, the minimum; US geopolitical influence in India’s largest, while in the Maldives geopolitical influence is minimized. Apart from India, China geopolitical influence in other South Asian countries than the United States is high.

(2) National geopolitical influence evolution is a slow process. 2003–2012 years, the Sino-US geopolitical influence in South Asian countries and regions, although the change, but change slightly.Evolution and world power structure geo influential centers of power transfer, is a gradual process. This answers the famous American political scientist Joseph from one side. Nye in the changing international environment, how to understand the influence of changes in national problems 2 ] .

(3) the main factors in South Asia, China and the US geopolitical influence in the evolution of hard power, soft power, interdependence and friction. Among them, the hard power and soft power is the dominant factor in geopolitical influence, from the pull effect; interdependent forces are secondary factors play a role thrust; and the frictional force is weakening factor, plays a reverse force. Currently, there are some scholars believe that the State can not influence quantification and measurement 11 , 12 , 14 ] , because of many factors to be considered, there is no one formula or model can include these “hard” and “soft” factors. Some scholars believe that the influence of the State depends on demographic, economic, military and cultural history of the country, and to quantify these factors to calculate the value of national influence 10 ] . The article is extracted the main factors affecting the evolution of geopolitical influence, and try to factors indicators of decomposition, quantitative estimation by formula Sino-US geopolitical influence change in South Asia. The conclusions Although not accurately portray the objective reality, but in line with reality.

(4) the driving force of China-US geopolitical influence in South Asia, including the evolution of geo-location, geo-political, geo-economic and geo-culture. Geo location national geopolitical influence the evolution of constraints force, geopolitics is the dominant force, is the driving force of the geo-economic, geopolitical culture is radiation.Among them, the geopolitical location determines the friction of physical distance; geopolitics in political philosophy, foreign policy, as well as the breadth and depth of the geo-cultural cultural appeal and cultural ties reflected the connotation of soft power; geopolitical location of the land and geo-economic area in GDP, science and technology constitute important elements of hard power; geo-economic trade and investment in the form of interdependent power sources. 4 major factors driving the four aspects of the evolution of a common geopolitical influence. Existing literature, there Mechanism Arctic route geopolitical pattern evolving 51 ] , studies have geopolitical pattern and BARYCENTER mechanism of the World’s oil supply 52] , but also the evolution and mechanism on energy geopolitics pattern 53 ] , but not inquiry appears geopolitical influence in the evolution of the national mechanism theoretical literature.

(5) National Hard power is not equal to geopolitical influence, countries hard strength and do not represent their external geopolitical influence is high. The two are not the same proportional change, but non-linear relationship.2003–2012 years, the US hard power index higher than China, but the United States in South Asia’s geopolitical influence change size but staggered ups and downs. Because the strength of geopolitical influence determinants, in addition to hard power, as well as soft power, interdependence and friction, four kinds of mutual restraint forces, which work together in order to determine the level of geopolitical influence. Although hard power plays a dominant role, but it does not determine the influence of changing geopolitical strength and speed.This is different from people’s thinking, but that the State hard strength, national influence is high. Study confirmed some plausible logic is not the truth.

In this paper, although the use of quantitative methods to try estimates state geopolitical influence, analyze their evolution in time and space, and to explore the factors and drive mechanism, but there are still some deficiencies, such as not to influence factors weights assigned did not specify the physical distance The value of rationality. National geopolitical influence further research questions are: ① how to geopolitical influence measurement results to test and evaluate ②how to trigger geopolitical influence in the evolution of various factors quantitative analysis and evaluation ③ how geopolitical relations, geopolitical structure?? and research into the effects of geopolitical geopolitical influence in the past? ④ how interrelated scales between geopolitical influence thinking study for?

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

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