Yang Hengjun: Will Kim Jong-un be the Architect of Reform and Opening for the DPRK?

Fascinating blog post by Chinese-Australian spy novelist Yang Hengjun.

 Trump as America’s non-ideological president and the opportunity for change in the relationship with the DPRK that that presents.

Like Mr. Spock said in Star Trek V, “We have a saying on Vulcan.  Only Nixon could go to China.”  In the case of the U.S., Secretary of State Madeleine Albright went to Pyongyang in 2000, but shortly thereafter there was a change of Administration from Clinton to Bush and the moment passed.

http://www.yanghengjun.com/?action-viewnews-itemid-1444

Will Kim Jong-un by the Architect of Reform and Opening for the DPRK?

Summary: DPRK may change course not because of Trump’s threats but because within those threats was the implicit promise, unlike previous US presidents, that the US would no longer be dedicated to the destruction of the DPRK regime. In Trump, Kim saw a non-ideological US president with whom he could do business.

Yang notes that a recent US think tank session, it was clear that none of the US scholars saw that. Certainly all US presidents have been committed to the ultimate goal of the destruction of the DPRK regime. Probably Trump himself does not realize just why he is making a breakthrough.

Not the only reason, China and Russia are also pressuring him to make peace with the US. The important thing here is to find a way forward for the 20 million people of North Korea who are isolated from the world and need to move towards reform and opening. This may be the best way for all the countries involved to help push/guide/tempt the DPRK on this way ahead for which there is no alternative.

End summary


金正恩,朝鲜“改革开放”的总设计师?

排行榜 收藏 打印 发给朋友 举报来源: 杨恒均的独立博客 发布者:杨恒均

热度88票时间:2018年3月30日 07:31

【央视新闻报道金正恩在同中国领导人会面时的谈话,给我两个印象,此人讲话有条不紊,逻辑挺强的,有改他上台八年来沉默带给外界的负面印象,可谓八年不鸣,一鸣惊人;从他简单的陈述中,可以感觉到他很可能已经准备好打开国门,实行更积极的接触外交政策,甚至不排除他可能带领朝鲜搞小平式的“改革开放”,这些迹象已经非常明显,当然也有变数……】

 

首先要回答的问题是:什么原因让金正恩突然走向前台,释放出同美国接触,实现无核化,并有让朝鲜“改革开放”的意愿呢?

 

有人说,是因为美国的武力威胁升级,他顶不住了。其实,并非如此,朝鲜就是在美国的威胁中长大的,特朗普的威胁并没有更多实际的内容。而真正让这位八零后萌生接触与放开念头的,恰恰是特朗普上台后多次强烈威胁言辞之下隐藏的不以改变朝鲜政权为目的的潜台词!

 

毋庸置疑,朝鲜之所以发展核武器,就是担心别人推翻金家政权,而特朗普之前所有的美国总统,不管是否明言,几乎都是以推翻金家独裁、在朝鲜半岛实现韩国式民主为终极目标的。关于这个结论,历史历历在目:过去近百年,以美国为首的西方确实以其政治、经济和社会实力和影响力,演变了近百个独裁政权,更有德国、日本、伊拉克等为数不少的国家是美国等直接出兵占领、颠覆的。

 

在这种历史的前车之鉴下,折腾了大半个世纪的朝鲜三代领导人,无论是自我孤立,封闭国门还是勒紧裤腰带发展核武,终极目标都是为了不被以美国为首的西方推翻——确保白头山精神与金家统治。聪明的金正恩不可能感觉不到,就在很多人认为特朗普加大了威胁力度之时,金正恩却看出来,特朗普才是他可以打交道的美国总统——这位抛弃意识形态,不以和平演变或武力改变他国政权、主张建墙的商人总统,是可以坐下来讨价还价,谈谈生意的。这其实同上个世纪七十年代末八十年代初的中国有些类似——设想一下,如果当初美国总统都像对付苏联一样,高喊要推翻“邪恶莫斯科”,我想,即便是邓小平,也没有那个胆量打开国门,拥抱一个要推翻自己政权的美国吧?

 

这两天参加美国智库会议,我发现美国人至今都没有搞清楚为什么金正恩突然选择要同那个威胁他最离谱的特朗普会谈,要知道,无论美国历任总统释放多少善意,金家三代领导人从来没有萌生出要会会美国总统的想法——你哪一个总统不是把终极目标定在推翻金家政权的高度上?不讲政治,尤其不讲“政治正确”的特朗普自己可能都没有搞清楚为什么突然收获了一份如此的政治大礼。特朗普在心中比谁都清楚,他只是想阻止朝鲜发展核武器,弄得他在国内的舆论中被动,至于金家是否统治朝鲜,用什么方式统治,从特朗普的意识形态和商人本质来看,他不但不介意,甚至心中还很有些羡慕东亚的终身制呢……

 

金正恩当然不只是依靠特朗普一个人来作出决定的,他最亲密的战友中国和俄国,尤其是两国领导人,也是促使他向美国伸出橄榄枝、走出国门,展现朝鲜无核化诚意,以及流露要加强同外部交流的意愿。我们只举俄国的例子:普京的再次当选,几乎意味着他要终老在俄罗斯总统的职位上,既然连俄罗斯都可以搞变相的终身制,朝鲜年轻八零后有什么理由对自己搞终身制、世袭制难为情,紧张兮兮,以自绝于外部世界的方式躲避他国干涉与世界人民的侮辱呢?金家八零后完全可以堂堂正正地走向世界!

 

当然,还有更多原因,但以上是最主要的,足可以解释为什么大半个世纪沉浸在反美狂热中不能自拔的朝鲜最高领导人,突然向美国伸出橄榄枝,主动提出要见特朗普。但金大帅并没有改弦易辙,依然以维系政权为唯一目标。不过,此时此刻,如果中国、美国等捕捉住这样的机会,完全可以顺势而为,让朝鲜走上中国四十年前走过的“改革开放”之路,那个我们嘲讽了八年之久的金大帅,携两千万超人气朝鲜人铁粉团,摇身一变而成为国家的领路人,“改革开放”的总设计师……

 

【好了,我知道你们怎么想,我知道你们此时此刻一定对那个家伙——“代购小贩”老杨头,充满了疑惑、不解和怀疑,甚至还有愤怒,怀疑他是不是继“美分”与“五毛”之后,连朝鲜的“朝元”都拿,潜伏八年之久,小骂大帮忙,最后是为了金大帅摇旗呐喊……哎,思密达!你这样想我也没办法,可难道还有更好的办法吗?你知道我在看朝鲜问题时一直只有一个坐标系吗?和其它人都不同,不是东亚和平、政权更换、中国利益、美国战略、金家前途等等……我唯一的参照坐标是那两千万与世隔绝,也被世人遗忘了的朝鲜民众,而在目前的情势下,迫使、诱导、引导朝鲜走上“改革开放”之路,可能是代价最小,也是让美、中、朝、日、俄等都能获益的不二之路……】

 

杨恒均 2018/3/30 纽约

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About 高大伟 David Cowhig

Worked 25 years as a US State Department Foreign Service Officer including ten years at US Embassy Beijing and US Consulate General Chengdu and four years as a China Analyst in the Bureau of Intelligence and Research. Before State I translated Japanese and Chinese scientific and technical books and articles into English freelance for six years. Before that I taught English at Tunghai University in Taiwan for three years. And before that I worked two summers on Norwegian farms, milking cows and feeding chickens.
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2 Responses to Yang Hengjun: Will Kim Jong-un be the Architect of Reform and Opening for the DPRK?

  1. dbarbiero says:

    David, this is the only way I could find to contact you. I’d like to ask your permission to use an image of yours of a detail of Giacometti’s Invisible Object for an article I’m writing. If you would, please contact me at mautunsq@gmail.com. Thank you!

    Like

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