2022 Transcript: Li Keqiang at Special Economy Stabilization Conference

This transcript circulated online the day of the May 25th special conference on stabilizing the Chinese economy. It appears to be authentic. It gets much more into detail than the vague summaries of important conferences than the Xinhua press agency usually puts out.

I’ve noticed that with the exception of the work reports that the PRC premier at the center and leaders at lower levels give as well to their provincial people’s congresses, senior leader statements seem not much reported verbatim at the time but are only reported in summary form. Sometimes the speech comes out a few months later; perhaps it takes a few months for the speech to be revised and scrubbed into canonical form. This is the process described by Professor Zhang Xuebo of the Central Party School in 2017 Zhang Xuebo: Observations on the History of Rule by Document 1982-2017 .

The transcript appears to be complete albeit with garbles and omissions in several places. Perhaps it is an amateur effort using voice transcription software done without thorough editing. Anyways, the absence of details and the pervasiveness of broad ideological generalities here is refreshing, even though it ends with a ritual genuflection towards Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics in the New Era. I suppose it would be easy for someone to record the conference on their smartphone and then generate a transcript.

Nah, No Xi – Li Power Struggle

With Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping’s increasing repression over the past decade, choking off even more free discussion in Chinese media, academia and online, expelling wetern journalists, analysis on China increasingly retreats to the Kremlinology deciphering-the-great-riddle-approach. People seem very ready to make small details carry the weight of a big story. Miscues and visions of false dawns are a great hazard perhaps even more so these days with the eyeball-grabbing orientation of many websites. (Not to say that Sino-Kremlinology did not have its triumphs — it depends upon close study of context and systems. See Alice Miller’s “Valedictory: Analyzing the Chinese Leadership in an Era of Sex, Money, and Power“)

I don’t think it is surprising that Li Keqiang rather than Xi Jinping gave this speech. Li Keqiang is the head of government — Xi’s position in the PRC state as Chair of the State Council is ceremonial. Xi’s post as Communist Party General Secretary is his power position. Another reason why Li gives this high profiles speech is that top leaders sometimes like lower officials to deliver bad news. After a week of rage following the 1999 US bombing of the PRC Embassy in Belgrade, Jiang Zemin threw his annointed successor Hu Jintao in front of the TV cameras to say “Let’s transform our anger into strength!” putting an end to demonstrations and calling for life to return to normal. An officer in the US Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) told me years ago that if after a disaster somewhere in the USA the federal government will offer emergency assistance, the White House makes the announcement. If the disaster is not so serious, the annoucement about denying assistance is made not be the White House but by FEMA.

My Idle Speculation

While Premier Li Keqiang in his speech didn’t announce any massive support for the economy,  his discussion his priorities for the economy — preserving the resilience of the economy, keeping people employed since with unemployment protecting people’s livelihood and intervening to help would be much more difficult, keeping the economy operating in the “reasonable range”, sounds very similar to the reasoning behind quantitative easing in the USA that began in 2020. 

Li compares the  quantitative easing of “some countries” saying China didn’t do that since it raised its broad money just 10% last year, and says it caused inflation  (according to Milton Friedman’s sacred text ““Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.”) 

Li also talked about food production concerns and how China has to choose between bad choices.  That Li brought up direct payments suggests it was not dismissed out of hand, and that since employment and keeping the economy stable is the bottom line, I would conclude from that that direct payments and raising the M2 Broad Money Supply. From the tenor of Premier Li’s speech, expanding the money supply even at the risk of inflation is a live options if things get worse.

I got welcome corrections when it was explained to me that that may not be actually quantitative easing since that would be the purchase of longer term securities by the central bank (the People’s Bank of China); the PBOC has been making many loans and rolling them over. And that while the PRC M2 is outpacing slower economic growth so far no strong indicators of overall inflation although food prices rose sharply in April following a decline in March. Something the PBOC is doing has been reducing the reserves that banks are required to hold. While this does enable them to make more loans, it does put them at greater risk in adverse circumstances. Xinhua on May 26 wrote about a reduction of the average reserve requirement ratio for Chinese financial institutions down to 9.6%.

Interlude: Maybe Some Bankers Haven’t Decided What Their Leaders Think Yet?? Or the Leaders Haven’t Decided Yet?

I just saw a May 26 Xinhua report about the reserve ratio requirements reduction for Chinese banks.  

The article was updated on May 26, the day after Premier Li’s speech.  Perhaps a microadjustment to stay in line with the central leadership. 

As life is always interesting, when I tried to bring the article below up on the Xinhua website I got a note that it was outdated.  A search for it on Xinhua News https://english.news.cn/home.htm didn’t turn it up either, although it remains on the China Daily website. https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202005/26/WS5eccd8aca310a8b241158998.html

But maybe I am looking for too much drama and some things really are just coincidences.

I looked around in China and did find another article on similar lines, apparently dated May 28, quoting the PBOC Deputy saying that there is still plenty of room to further reduce the RRR, saying it  the RRR 8.4%​  (I suppose a financial journalist would have to get their numbers right!? They couldn’t have just published the wrong number???)  

I tried looking the article up in Chinese. Didn’t find that article but did find a simiar one. That one was deleted too! The Google search engine still has the title and first two lines:

央行副行长刘国强:存款准备金率进一步调整空间变小但仍有 …

https://www.shanghui-sz.com › shanghui  (URL  https://xueqiu.com/8476758876/217161019 )

2天前 — 降准之后,当前金融机构平均存款准备金率是8.4%,这个水平已经不高了,无论是与其他发展中经济体还是与我们历史上的存款准备金率相比,应该说存款准备金率的水平都不高 ..

[Translation of search engine summary snippet of removed financial news:

Liu Guoqiang, Deputy governor of the central bank: the room for further adjustments in deposit reserve ratio has become smaller but there is still some space left …

2 days ago – After the rate reduction, the current average reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions is 8.4%, no longer a high one, either compared to other developing economies or to our historical reserve requirement ratios, it should be said that the level of the reserve requirement ratio is not high ]

I clicked on Google’s reactionary search engine and got  

商汇网 – 404 – Not Found

Somehow I must learn to curb my suspicious nature!  Though I don’t know how a central bank could possible have a secret reserve requirement ratio!  And a secret one 1 percentage point less than the one Xinhua reported and deleted two days earleri?  Perhaps the bankers haven’t figured out what they think yet.  Or the Center hasn’t told the bankers what they think yet.  Or they just can’t say yet.   In 2005 in Chengdu I had a funny experience talking with the manager of a local bank in a rural district near Chengdu. I asked him about his bank, whether the difficulties of the township and village industries had hurt his bank.  He told me that his bank was in excellent financial health.  When I get up to thank him for the nice visit I happened to see some documents on the wall behind me — it was a document from the Ministry of Finance (as I recall)  detailing schedule of coming fund transfers to the bank to recapitalize it because of loans that had gone bad.  When I asked the bank manager about it, he answered, “Don’t tell anyone! It’s a secret.”   So sometimes I still wonder about the many possible dimenstions of bank secrecy even in this latter day enlightened age!

Maybe I am too suspicious. Or things are just too fluid in China right now?

End Interlude

A difficult choice either way since social stability as economic stability could be threatened either way.  China had serious inflation, especially in food prices, as well as political discontent, in the runup to the 1989 unpleasantness, which Li also mentioned “However we achieved positive growth for the year of 2.3% later adjusted to 2.2%.  In the 40 years of the reform and opening up policy,  it was the years 1989 and 1990 years that our economy was affected by factors of which you are well aware was resulting in a 2% growth rate for China and 3% in the cities.” 

I found the thinking imbued in Premier Li Keqiang’s important speech very interesting, reflecting that some Chinese economists have been going to the same schools as Western economists and studying the same textbooks in Chinese translation.  Some differences though in the tools available including the important role of state-owned enterprises in the Chinese economy which is still significant. State intervention through stimulus there might be the easiest to effect, though I wonder if we might hear more of the refrain about the economy common in the years after 2008   state-owned enterprises are doing well, private enterprises are failing.   Guó jìn mín tuì  国进民

A question I would have based on Friedman’s sacred text is that if the broad money supply M2 remains on trend (same as in high growth years) while the economy has slowed down considerably or is even contracting, are they doing quantitative easing already?    I remember reading when I was in Chengdu a discussion on an economics online bulletin board about economics on the Renmin University website saying that China actually did more quantitative easing relative to GDP than the USA did.  Yet I didn’t see that reflected in the PRC M2 broad money supply when I looked at online economic data.   Maybe I am confused or maybe it is that analysts outside of China must rely on the data that China provides and while trying to correct it to make it more reliable are necessarily potential victims of their own assumptions as they try to massage the figures back towards ‘reality’.  I am no economist so just a question from the back rows!

China’s rising debt relative to its GDP, especially corporate debt, lately rising due to massive support to state-owned enterprises after the 2008 global financial crisis, may constrain interventions to protect the economy today. See:

Press reports on Li Keqiang’s speech at the economic stabilization video/telephone conference:

The reports from the China do get into more specifics than usual.

China Economy Stabilization Conference recording transcript

Original text: Stabilization of the Economy major speech recording – Longbridge Longbridge (googleusercontent.com) 372

Comrades, thank you for convening the national stabilization of the economy of the general television and telephone conference, the theme of this meeting education is guided by Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics in the New Era, the implementation of the Central Economic Work Conference and the Government’s work report, as well as the deployment arrangements of the Central Committee Politburo meeting, analysis of the current economic situation, the study and deployment of the national stabilization of the economy of the general work. The Party Central Committee and State Council attach great importance to this meeting. Premier Li Keqiang is attending the meeting and will make an important speech.

The principal participants in today’s conference are the State Council leading comrades, the State Council organs, members of the State Council Party group, the State Council units concerned, the responsible comrades of relevant financial institutions and central enterprises are participating in the conference from another venue. 

The provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities plan units, Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, cities, counties, all comrades in charge of the people’s government and comrades in charge of the main departments, here is the agenda for this meeting.  First we will ask the National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Finance, the People’s Bank of China, the main comrades in charge of the main venue to speak, then we will ask Premier Li Keqiang to deliver an important speech.

Now we ask National Development and Reform Commission Director Comrade He Lifeng to speak.

Premier and leaders, thus far this year, under the firm leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core, all regions and departments make the word “stability” their top priority.  Stable progress, powerful coordination of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development. China’s economic operation in general to achieve a smooth start. However, since March, the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic and the crisis in Ukraine has led to greater risks and challenges, the complexity of China’s economic development environment, uncertainties have increased, and the economy faces both contractions in demand and supply shocks. These triple pressures are increasing, slowing significantly growth in the manufacturing industry, return to work and production has been slow and there are still constraints on the smooth operation of the industrial supply chain. .

In April, the industrial value added of large enterprises dropped by 2.9% year-on-year, and electricity power consumption of the whole society dropped by 1.2% year-on-year, so the recovery in real estate and consumption faced major constraints. There was a 7.1% year-on-year drop in total retail sales of consumer goods in April, the manufacturing purchasing manager index and the non-manufacturing business activity index were 47.4% and 41.9% respectively, which remains below the Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) line, making it difficult to stabilize exports. The difficulty in stabilizing exports has increased, market players, especially small, medium and micro enterprises and individual entrepreneurs, have more difficulties in production and operation, and employment problems of key groups such as college graduates have become more pronounced in April.

The national urban unemployment survey rate was 6.1%, and the urban unemployment survey rate in 31 major cities was 6.7%, with key regions being hit harder, and fiscal revenue in some regions is declining.  In April, the national fiscal revenue, after deducting the retained tax refunds, similarly fell by 5.9%.  International commodity prices are running high, leading to increased pressure of imported inflation.  Stable growth, stable employment and stable prices face new and serious challenges. Downward pressure on the economy continues to increase, and nownew contradictions and problems have appeared. 

The National Development and Reform Commission, working in conjunction with the relevant parties to implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and the deployment of the Government’s work report, is focusing on stabilizing the macroeconomy, strengthening the coordination of macro policies, and actively launching policies conducive to economic stability, the introduction and implementation of policies and measures to promote the steady growth of the industrial economy, the property sector to resume the development of industries in difficulty, and focus on stabilizing the market actors to engage in employment, and solidly promote economic and social development.

The next step of the National Development and Reform Commission will be, in accordance with the decisions and deployments made by Party Central Committee and the State Council, to work together with institutions of higher education to coordinate epidemic prevention and control, economic  and social development, to pay close attention to effectiveness of economic stabilization measures and focus on the following tasks:

First, to increase the regulation of macroeconomic policies, to put greater emphasis on stabilizing growth, on implementing a positive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, to accelerate the implementation of the 33 policies in six areas that have been identified, to further strengthen economic construction, forecasting and early warning with previous authorized policies held in reserve in case of contingencies, on implementing the optimization and improvement of policy mix, to improve the mechanism for evaluating policy documents, to promote the newly introduced policies and macroeconomic policy orientation, to maintain policy consistency, to strengthen the interpretation of policies and guidance of expectations, and to take the initiative to respond to social concerns, stabilize expectations and enhance confidence.

Second, give full play to the key role of effective investment, strengthen infrastructure construction, promote the implementation of the 102 major projects of the 14th Five-Year Program in a strong, orderly and effective manner, strengthen the protection of land and energy ranking, etc., and promote a number of major projects that have been proven to be ripe after many years of evaluation to start construction, so that they can be accelerated as much as possible, to speed up the issuance of investment plans for the central budget, accelerate the issuance and use of special bonds for local governments, and to expand the areas of support, guide the effective connection between credit funds and special bond funds, and strive to form more physical workload as soon as possible.

Third, to ensure the stability of the food, energy, security, and industry supply chains, further strengthen monitoring of prices of products important to the livelihood of the people, improve food procurement storage and its capacity to intervene, improve its mechanisms for intervention so that it can immediately release stocks to the market if necessary, improve supplies to the market, and ensure basic price stability.  Increase the national chemical fertilizer reserves, adhere to the premise of the first example after the change in ensuring the safe, clean and bring online high quality coal quality production capacity in an orderly and efficient manner, accelerate the promotion of desert, semi-desert and wasteland areas as the focus of large wind power photovoltaic base construction, strengthen the construction of crude oil, coal and other energy reserves capacity, play a better role in maintaining a stable supply chain coordination mechanism, focus on breaking the outstanding bottlenecks in industry chains, and increase support for civil aviation and railroads which are are enterprises that are still particularly seriously affected by the epidemic. 

Fourth, do an effective job on important livelihood commodities to ensure supply and stabilize prices, further strengthen the monitoring of prices of important livelihood commodities, enhance the ability to regulate reserves, improve the regulatory mechanism, put stores held in reserve in a timely manner to increase market supply so as to ensure basically stable prices. Takes the initiative to promptly provide social assistance. Ensure a mechanism that links standards and prices. Ensure the comprehensive release of subsidies to protect the basic livelihood of low-income groups. National Development and Reform Commission will be in accordance with the spirit of today’s meeting and the requirements of Premier Li Keqiang’s important speech, to further increase the work, take the initiative, play an active role, ensure economic stabilization, strive to promote economic operation within a reasonable range, and strive to achieve the anticipated global economic and social development goals.

Now I invite Comrade Liu Kun, Minister of Finance, to speak.

Leaders, this year, under the firm leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, the financial sector is conscientiously implementing the decision and the policies deployed by the Party Central Committee and the State Council, in accordance with the positive fiscal policy to enhance the effectiveness, pay more attention to the precise and sustainable requirements, strengthen cross-cycle and counter-cyclical adjustments, be forward-leaning and to take the initiative in redoubling of effort.

From January to April, national fiscal expenditures rose by 5.9%, which was significantly faster than the increase in revenue, as the scale of tax rebates exceeded expectations. As of May 23, the cumulative tax rebate is about 1.15 trillion yuan, which directly increased enterprise cash flows and the issuance of local government special bonds for special projects. As of May 23, the cumulative issue of new special bonds was 1.67 trillion yuan.  This strongly supports the expansion of effective investment.

According to the latest changes in the situation, the State Council Standing Committee meeting has recently deployed a package of 33 policy measures in six areas to solidly stabilize the economy. We will unswervingly implement these fiscal policies.

First, we will further increase the strength of the VAT retention tax refund policy, implement full retention tax refunds in more industries for both stock and incremental amounts, increase tax refunds by over 140 billion yuan, and reduce tax refunds by a total of about 2.64 trillion yuan for the whole year, and will handle tax rebates from the State Taxation Administration urgently, while strengthening the prevention of tax rebate risks and strictly punishing tax evasion and tax fraud.

Second, accelerate fiscal spending efforts, supervise and guide local departments to speed up budget execution, promote the progress of project implementation, increase efforts to revitalize the stock of funds, recover the balance carryover funds as required to coordinate and use support economic and social development, while strengthening fund scheduling and payment monitoring to ensure that the grassroots Three Guarantees [Note: Guarantee basic livelihood, wages, and operating expenses.] are carried out. 

Third, accelerate the use of local government special bonds issued and expand the scope of application. To ensure that the 3.45 trillion yuan for project construction, that amount of local government special bonds by the end of June will have been issued, and strive to have these funds essentially all used in place by the end of August. At the same time will be special online knowledge areas to expand to new infrastructure new energy projects to urge localities to accelerate the progress of special bond spending, in conjunction with the National Development and Reform Commission to guide localities, to do a good job of project reserves and funding needs to declare the work to prevent full and other projects to improve the effectiveness of the use of funds, as soon as possible to form the physical workload.

Fourth, through the financing guarantee government procurement, support the development of small and medium-sized micro enterprises to relieve their difficulties, create a new national financing guarantee fund, re-guarantee cooperation business with more than 1 trillion RMB, support to help relieve the financing difficulties of small and medium-sized micro enterprises individual entrepreneurs, increase government procurement support, raise the price deduction ratio for small and medium-sized enterprises to 10 ~ 20%, lower the threshold for small and medium-sized enterprises to participate in government procurement projects, and create a set-aside for them for government procurement. This year’s interim policy increases funding for this work by over 40%. 

Fifth, increase support for civilized workplaces in big industrial parks, in order to ensure that the social insurance treatment on time and in full payment of the premise, the small and medium-sized enterprises, individual entrepreneurs and five special hardship industries to return to pay pensions and other three insurance premiums policy phased implementation until the end of this year, and expand the scope to the epidemic by the serious impact of the industry in a large area of enterprise production and operation difficulties, in line with the national industrial policy guidance for special hardship industries, the rotation of large enterprises.  Increase the job rotation and return to original job restitution ratio 30% to 50%, and broaden the scope of unemployment insurance by the work subsidy beneficiary.

The Ministry of Finance will be in accordance with the spirit of today’s meeting and the requirements set forth in  Premier Li Keqiang , grasp the refinement of the relevant fiscal policy, and actively support the implementation of other measures with the relevant departments, to ensure that in the stabilization of the economy, strive to alleviate difficulties, to protect people’s livelihood and other key areas, as early as possible to produce greater and more positive policy effects, solid stabilization of the economy, and efforts to promote economic operation in a reasonable range, and strive to achieve the expected goals of economic and social development for the year.

Now I ask Comrade Yi Gang, Governor of the People’s Bank of China to speak.

Leaders, colleagues, this year, under the firm leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, the People’s Bank of China has firmly implemented the decisions and policies deployed by the Party Central Committee and the State Council.  The PBOC has been forward-leaning, strengthening financial support to stable growth, adopting a  comprehensive permissive forward-learning policy on remittances to higher levels, on retained profits, so as to free up liquidity over the long term. The PBOC has twice guided the 

loan market to revise downwards their interest rate quotes, launched in a timely manner universal micro and small loans support tools along with scientific and technological innovations, and has given special consideration to pensions, special loans for transportation and logistic and other structural policy tools. The PBOC has also launched 23 initiatives to support the prevention and control of the epidemic,  economic and social development, and to  improve real estate financial policy.

At the end of April, the broad money supply M2, the magnitude of social financing and loan balances all had a year-on-year growth of 10%. The average interest rate for new loans issued to enterprises from January to April was 4.39%, the lowest since statistical records have been kept.

PRC Money Supply M2 via tradingeconomics.com

According to the decisions and policies deployed by the Party Central Committee Politburo meeting and the State Council Standing Committee, and in accordance with the work requirements of the State Council Financial Stability and Development Committee, the PBOC recently held a meeting to analyze the monetary and credit policies of branch banks and, together with the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, held a meeting with 24 major financial institutions to deploy local corporate financial institutions and national financial institutions to expand volume and stabilize the stock of loans, and make every effort to achieve a reasonable growth of new loans in May, so as to maintain a steady growth of credit throughout the year.

The next step of the People’s Bank of China shall be to follow the decisions and policies deployed by the Party Central Committee and the State Council, and to adopt multiple measures to handle well the next phase of monetary and credit policy, focusing on the following aspects:

First, to ensure that sufficiently strong monetary policy efforts are in place to ensure that total liquidity is maintained at a slightly higher level than reasonable abundance, the early completion of the annual settlement profits. While ensuring that the total monetary policy amount is abundant, play a positive role in structural optimization, doubling the amount and support ratio of this year’s reserve for small and micro loan support tools, increasing the balance of general-purpose small and micro loans to local corporate financial institutions, raising the proportion of support funds from 1% to 2%, increasing the amount of support for agriculture and for small loans, to guide small and medium-sized financial institutions to increase their efforts to invest in loans for small and micro business, and to encourage the large state-owned Banks this year to add 1.6 trillion RMB of small and medium-sized loans for the general public, promote the implementation of good carbon emission reduction tools and support for clean and efficient coal, the use of science and technology innovations, give special consideration to pensions. Provide special refinancing for transportation and logistics and other structural tools; the volume refinancing funds to be provided will exceed 1.4 trillion RMB.

Second, highlight the key areas of financial support, guide financial institutions to speed up the release of loans already approved. We intend to add a policy development credit line of 800 billion RMB, strengthen the construction of infrastructure such as transportation, energy, water conservancy, etc. Together with relevant departments we will decide upon a list of enterprises and projects, guide financial institutions to provide long-term loans in a market-oriented manner, increase the emergency loans for civil aviation by 150 billion RMB, support the civil aviation industry through a 200 billion RMB bond issue.  We urge financial institutions to adhere to the “Two Unswervings” [Note: To “unswervingly consolidate and develop the public economy” and to  “unswervingly encourage, support and guide the development of the non-public economy”] , increase support for private enterprises, and correct the credit contraction in private housing enterprises as soon as possible. Support reasonable housing demand with city-specific policies, maintain the stable operation of the real estate market, guide the healthy development of the platform economy, and in conjunction with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other relevant departments, establish a white-list system for platform enterprises in terms of protecting people’s livelihood, employment and technological innovation, and give relevant financing support.

Third, suitably increase the macro leverage ratio, increase counter-cyclical adjustments, support financially sustainable enterprises to properly increase their leverage, residential household sector promote stabilization of leverage, support financial institutions to make loans small and medium-sized enterprises and individual business as well as to support loans to truck drivers, for vehicles and personal housing and consumer loans since these have been severely affected by the epidemic, defer payment of principal and interest payments during the year, and continue to promote the reduction of comprehensive financing costs of enterprises, making concessions to the real economy.

Fourth, to enhance policy foresight and continuity, taking into account long-term and short-term factors, the overall internal and external balance, respect for the objective laws of the economy, timely pre-adjustment and fine-tuning, to maintain the medium and long-term broad money supply and the growth rate needed to meet the needs of the scale of social financing needed, to basically stay in step with the nominal economic growth rate.

Fifth, to do a good job of guiding expectations, in responding to market concerns in a timely manner, strengthening propaganda on policy,  organizing the assessment of organizational guidance, using practical case examples to boost market confidence and mobilize the enthusiasm of all parties. The People’s Bank will follow the spirit of this meeting and the requirements of Premier Li Keqiang’s important speech, continue to take the initiative to respond, be forward-leaning, to further increase the implementation of sound monetary policy, create a good monetary and financial environment, and provide stronger support for the real economy report. End.

Now I ask Premier Li Keqiang to give an important speech. 

Comrades, today the State Council held a national television and telephone conference to stabilize the economy, the main task to Xi Jinping thought of socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era as a guide, to implement the central economic work conference and government work reports and other deployments, arrangements in accordance with the epidemic to prevent, the economy to stabilize, the development of security requirements, unified thinking, awareness, solid responsibility, and make concerted efforts to maintain the second quarter economic operation reform operation.

Just now the main responsible comrades of the Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, and the People’s Bank of China reported on relevant work initiatives. I would like to make the following three points.

First, the current smooth operation of the economy faces serious challenges, we must rise to the occasion and promote bringing the economy back to normal. Since the beginning of this year, in the face of the complex and changing situation at home and abroad, under the firm leadership of Comrade Xi Jinping at the core of the Party Central Committee, all regions and departments are conscientiously implemented the decisions and plans of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, adhering to the general theme of seeking progress in a stable manner, coordinating the prevention and control of the epidemic and economic and social development. This will help us in dealing with difficult challenges. They have done a great deal of effective work.

China’s economic operation in general got off to a smooth start this year reflected in the main economic indicators for January and February.  However,  a new round of the epidemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and other unexpected factors, have since March, and especially in April, made economic indicators drop significantly. The value added of large industrial enterprises in April had 53% year-on-year growth but it  actually declined by 2.9% compared with March this year.  The service sector production index fell 6.1% and total retail sales of consumer goods fell 11.1%, a double-digit decline compared with the March decline by an additional  7.6 percentage points.  This is the first such drop we have seen since we began keeping statistics on consumption. Four new construction projects, that could be slowed down suddenly, that began in April were also put off. Import and export growth of only 0.1%, of which the export growth acceleration rate in March fell 11 percentage points.  Overall electric power consumption increased by 3.5% in March only to fall by 1.2% in April. The economic effects of all this have already begun to batter our most important sources of fiscal revenue. 

In April, we did a large tax rebate which localities matched. However, a study by the Center found that deducting that portion of the tax rebate remaining in the localities instead of being remitted to the Center, the national fiscal revenue in April fell 5.9% and local fiscal revenue fell even faster, declining by 6.6%. Especially the Yangtze River Delta region which had the largest decline in their net contribution to the Central revenue –  32%. That drop exceeds the average drop for the entire country.  I’m talking about 5, [? sic, garbled] decline in one of our main sources of tax revenue.

Of course the first few months of local income is also affected by the real estate market. Land use rights concession revenue fell by 29.8%.  Are not many local financial conflicts now increasing? Recently several provinces have made reports to the State Council and are asking to borrow money. 

I am here to tell you clearly that before making this year’s government work, we had already made adjustments to the budget.  This year’s transfer payments to localities is the largest in many years.  These changes had been approved by the National People’s Congress.  We have to continue to increase the tax rebates and tax cuts and these have been mainly the financial burden of the  Center. 

We need to ensure that there will be no problems with this year’s expenditures on the military and national defense, and compulsory education. So I’ve come here to give you a bottom line. That is, unless we face a major natural disaster, there are still some reserves in the Premier’s special fund. The localities will be responsible for the remainder needed.

Since the beginning of April and since the beginning of May, with the epidemic gradually coming under control in some places, work and production resumed and the economy began to recover. This economic trend is still fairly fragile.  The growth rate of physical volume targets still has not begun. Now to January 20, [sic, garbled] and the first two periods of May , the amount of power generation and transmission along with new loan emissions were negative. Judging from the current situation, we want to correct this trend so that we will not see a decline for the month of May as a whole. This will require a great effort. So our intention in holding this meeting is to say that there is no time to lose. 

We must all take a variety of effective measures to reverse the economic index downturn, because now there is a danger of China’s economy slipping outside its reasonable range of operation. As I have repeatedly said at meetings, China has such a large economy, once its has slipped out of its reasonable operating range, pulling it back inside that range without paying a huge price and it taking a long time to do so is very difficult.  Therefore we now must clearly ask all relevant departments and localities to take measures to strive to stabilize the economy and see growth in June so that we can see some signs of recovery. 

Here at this meeting to give you an indicator.  Strive to ensure that in the second quarter  China’s economy has positive economic growth. That is not a lofty goal. This falls far below or is clearly less than the 5.5% growth target we proposed at the beginning of the year.  We need to set forth, however, from the situation before us and that is what we must do.

Because the second quarter of China’s GDP, the annual labor accounts for ¼ or more the year’s economic effort, if the second quarter to the first half of this year, although the first quarter we are grew at 4.8%, but the overall amount was small, then the first half of the situation will not look unattractive,  it brings  a series of problems.  Judging from the current situation, our market participants which are the microeconomic base of the market economy will have endured two years of repeated buffeting by the epidemic.  Many small and medium-sized enterprises and individual entrepreneurs have felt pressure from  long-term rising costs, sluggish demand, and falling profits. 

I went down to the localities to do some research. Many small and medium-sized micro enterprises at all levels of industry and trade told me that they are in crisis, in fact on the knife edge of success or failure or the point of deciding whether to close their business.

We all know that China’s market participants have maintained a relatively high growth rate and markets are like that: some businesses succeed while others fail. What is different from ten years ago is that at that time there were under 50 million participants in the market. This has now grown to the current 150 million participants. This increase was not easy to come by. In April of this year, this figure showed a  year-on-year decline of 12.8%. The number of business registration cancellations also rose by 23.1%. This issue is not just the falling growth rate. Not on a falling growth rate but also these cancellations, that is to say, less black ink and more red ink and the number of those caught between the scissors of low incomes and high prices. And that keeps getting worse. Over the years, this has been an unusual situation for us. We say that we want to keep the economy running in a reasonable range in order to get into a positive growth mechanism. The latter has two important children we need to take care of. One of them is  employment. As I have repeatedly said, as long as there is relatively full employment and steadily rising incomes, stable prices with economic growth acceleration a bit high, we can manage with that. However, if the economic growth rate is too low, it will directly impact our employment rate pushing it steadily upwards. 

In April, the national urban survey unemployment rate rose 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, reaching 6.1%, especially in 31 large cities, the survey unemployment rate reached 6.7%, especially the 16 to 24 years old youth survey [garble:事故 accident? ] Our college students comprise 18.2% of this category.  For rural migrant workers in the city, the employment rate is the highest  since we began keeping this statistic. [Garbled text :升好。在吗 ]

China is still a developing country, and adheres to the household contract responsibility system since those pieces of land still can support people. However, as more towns and cities are permitted to be established, the consequences of a sharp rise in unemployment becomes a more serious problem. It can be managed in the short term. However, over the long term, we need to make decisions based on results, that is we don’t expect to solve four big problems in one quarter. We need to be clear that that won’t work.  Over the long term what counts is real progress. We need to have positive growth and declining unemployment in the second quarter. If we can’t achieve that, then at that point we’ll have to decide what to do. 

At the worst point of the epidemic shock in 2020, the unemployment rate reached 6.6% or more. It came down in the next quarter. So if the unemployment rate continues to climb and if we take into consideration that we will have the highest number of college graduates in history — over 10 million this year. Everyone focuses on our economic growth rate.  We say that we can’t look at things in such a one-sided way.  We need to work hard on reducing the unemployment rate. 

This year, due to the change of circumstances in this period, the outside world, especially international organizations, has been lowering our GDP growth estimate. Some even think that it may be below three percent for the whole year.  When can we not accept a growth rate below three percent? We had only one quarter of a deep decline of 6.8%  when the epidemic hit us suddenly in 2020. However we achieved positive growth for the year of 2.3% later adjusted to 2.2%.  In the 40 years of the reform and opening up policy,  it was the years 1989 and 1990 years that our economy was affected by factors of which you are well aware was resulting in a 2% growth rate for China and 3% in the cities.  This did not affect the unemployment rate at the time. The employment survey indicates that in fact China’s situation this year will not lead to a large increase in unemployment.  

PRC GDP Annual Growth via World Bank

Another aspect, of course, we also have confidence that prices are still under control, although there remains pressure.  In April consumer prices of residents rose by 2.1 points and the upper limit on the price band was raised last month expanded by 0.6 points.

Two years ago, at the most serious point of the epidemic, we did not make a major reversal of course. We did not excessively expand the money supply. We are still operating based on the bottom line we decided upon earlier.  Now some developed countries and even some developing countries, have serious inflation. Has not the Russia-Ukraine Conflict had some impact? Some countries are energy-independent. Why even in those countries did they still have such high inflation even before the Russia-Ukraine Conflict began?  This phenomenon is not unrelated to last year’s stimulus combined with two years of quantitative easing.  We did not do that.

PRC, US M2 Broad Money Supply Trends Compared (via tradingeconomics.com)

On the contrary, once the economy began to recover in 2020 we stored some things for two years; that is to say that we still have tools to cope with the downward pressure on the economy, because we still have some control over the prices of basic materials.  Everybody knows that the most important aspect of the market economy is that it is most sensitive when it operates without restrictions. Once the economy suffers a severe blow, it seriously affects the lives of the people and especially people with low incomes. As I just said, keeping the economy operating in the reasonable range one of the things we need to do is to ensure that the incomes of the people keep increasing. This year we will maintain the common wealth for all.  Given a stable situation, if the incomes and employment of the people can be ensured through the market, The average income of the people is the principal indicator that our economy is operating in the reasonable range. 

Meeting with you this year to talk about the second level, I will also talk about the responsibility of the provinces, the responsibility of each place, the responsibility of each department. But in general, we must see that China is still a developing country.  Development is the basis for solving all the problems our country has, whether it be ensuring employment, ensuring people’s livelihood; all these things depend upon development. Keep doing a good job of epidemic prevention and control.  You also must maintain financial and material security. If the economy slips out of its reasonable operating range, even for a fairly short period of time and over the long term contradictions accumulate and various risks and hidden dangers also grow.  Therefore I think that according to our analysis, the main difficulty now before us is development. We need to take care to protect the hard work and wisdom of hundreds of millions of our country, our million market innovators. We must protect their resilience.  There is a proposal for directly issuing money to people because their own consumption pattern is not smooth. China is very unbalanced because it is so very large. There are rural areas where decisions are made from a city perspective, we need to see that these decisions fall within norms.

But from a national perspective, only limited funds can be used on the knife’s edge to protect market players. You engage in some experience and  we crowd out some of the first-class policy tools. We should act mainly in accordance with the Central Economic Work Conference and the Government’s work report which clarified the general idea, policy orientation and implementation. Here I want to emphasize that this year is very important in the process of the development of the Party and the state.  During the second half of the year the Party will hold its 20th Congress therefore it is essential that we  keep the economy running smoothly. We must create a good development environment for the Party’s 20th Congress. This is not just an economic issue.  It is also a major political issue.

So all regions and departments must understand the seriousness of our current situation. They need to further ensure that their work measures are effective and make efforts to get the economy back to normal. Of course, we are in the process of promoting the full implementation of the new development for next year. However these will not be big initiatives. We need to shape our policy to meet the needs of the present. This is based on our current needs, but will also be beneficial over the long run. I think we are now past the sudden and unexpected shock of 2020.

Now some comrades say looking at the current situation that somehow some aspects of it may be more serious than in 2020.  This is perhaps true for some aspects of certain industries, but speaking about it overall,  we now have the benefit of two and a half years of experience.  We should have confidence that despite the sudden difficulties we are encountering, we actually achieved the only positive growth among the major economies of the world. Now we should also overcome the difficulties before us and achieve positive growth and a decline in unemployment during the second quarter.  I’m not going to talk to you about finance here.

The Center financial department is looking for ways and means. You yourselves should be preoccupied with ensuring your situation as well. As long as we do that, then we can  accomplish the main tasks of economic and social development for the whole year. One of the foundations for that is the methods we adopt at key junctures. Everyone should understand clearly why it was necessary for us to hold this meeting now. 

My second point: take strong measures to stabilize the most important aspects of the market, to protect employment, to protect people’s livelihood, and the economy. In fact, in last year’s Central Economic Work Conference and this year’s government work report, we addressed outstanding contradictions facing economic development, the introduction of a series of major policy initiatives, but also allowed flexibility in policy options to address the possible emergence of greater risks. In view of the recent extreme changes in the economic situation, the State Council, following the basic thinking in the Central Economic Work Conference and the government work report,  introduced a package of economic stabilization initiatives addressing six areas including 33 projects that are most likely to serve to get the economy back to normal. 

Not only did the Central Economic Work Conference and the government’s work report make clear the major arrangements for the various policy initiatives, the recent State Council executive meeting to determine the 33 policy measures in six areas, and what to urgently prioritize and to focus on helping market players to solve their difficulties.

As I said earlier, we now have 158 individual million market actors and over one hundred million in industry and business. This is the resilience of our Chinese economy, its very foundation.  We still need to focus on these market actors, adhere to the reform and opening approach to support stability and growth. Addressing today the market and the principal aspects of the market means not only large enterprises but also small and medium-sized micro enterprises. Farmers and merchants at all levels can not be ignored. Currently the most difficulties affect small and medium-sized micro enterprises and financial, and manufacturing industries that suffer from industrial supply chains that are not flowing properly. For industries in particular difficulty, such as the banking industry, we also need to give support, but in general we need to address the principal market players as we implement fiscal and monetary policy.

We should treat state-owned enterprises, private enterprises, foreign enterprises, and all kinds of markets the same way. We should use the approach of opening and reform to create initiative to stabilize and invigorate them and solve these problems. You have already heard about this but let me say that the April rebates were done very quickly. I visited some localities to investigate.  Local comrades said the account calculations are right, although the localities also provide support, the central government’s proportion of support reached 80% or even 85%. Their calculations are about what the next year will bring and so I take 15 – 20% today instead of next year’s 55% and the VAT is 50%.  The Center shares the burden with the localities, especially enterprises thought that they had struck it rich in the market but now many local businesses are in difficulty, sales revenue decline.  We have the policy of tax reduction, but we reduce the turnover tax, our main tax income is from the Value Added Tax (VAT).  The didn’t have turnover, no sales, so if you simply reduce the tax he doesn’t benefit from a tax reduction. So a tax refund based on ten-some years of old accounts is made to tide the market over these difficult times.  

Not only that, we also deferred social security contributions to the end of this year. Small and medium-sized enterprises and individual businesses and five spatial mapping industries, the five spatial mapping industries, include a number of large enterprises. Adding up these categories, means that we are making a stronger intervention than we made in 2020. In  2020 our social security premium exemption is 1.7 trillion RMB, plus tax cuts is a total of 2,500 billion RMB, now issue tax rebates 16,000  reduce tax rebates 25,000 RMB, plus 3,000 billion RMB in social security premiums, and some other data, not less than 3 trillion RMB , to support the market, to see if we can put the policy We will see if we can implement this policy. 

For example, I have talked with many of the market players, they think that these market players, especially small, medium and micro enterprises, individual entrepreneurs, our income level has not yet reached what it was in  2019, if we can return to the level of 2019, they will feel very satisfied. Our people are very good-natured and are still full of hope for the future. So we today if we put 3 trillion RMB now say around, may be the next step above, our central finance is continuing to collect the first two years of while the current certain specific balance or to keep the market players, to keep things going well, in the future the localities will be involved in implementing these policies so all of you here should understand them clearly. 

Another is credit.   What our monetary policy has faced these past two years we’d have to say is the gold bug test [金字虫考验] .  Even at the worst point of difficult times,  we did not excessively expand the money supply. The monetary problem we face now is the financial institution loan growth report is financial institutions loan growth report, in April month loans were down by 820 billion RMB.  Social financing was down from the previous year.  That is not good. Where did the banks get their money? Deposits come in and you have to pay interest, and the money goes out as loans, this is the basic means, of course, there are other means.  The result of the loan is less money on hand at the bank. People today are willing to deposit money in the bank. We are now concerned that the number of depositors in financial difficulty will increase and so there will be less money to loan out.  This would not only affect economic development, but will also bring risks to the financial sector. So we are determined to increase the financial support of key investment projects. I visited water conservancy projects in some localities for which hundreds of billions of RMB in investment have been certified for more than a decade. If there is not enough money, they get treasury bonds issued with special bonds  by the People’s Bank of China as well.  Long-term loans must be in support of these long-term and income-generating projects.  Measures should also be taken to support consumer loans. Since then localities noticed that our car enterprises get central enterprise loans.  These loans are given to individual car owners through financing arrangements. They need to repay those loans. The central enterprises just recently made a decision  to lend to the actual car buyer on behalf of the car manufacturer through the means of loans on behalf of the car to individual drivers, they have to repay, just as regards the Central-owned enterprises to handle both issues as a package and that in the coming six months there will be no reduction in the Personal Income Tax of Chauffeured Car Drivers.  Now there are serious difficulties so there will be a slow down in the first six months. Let’s wait half a year and then revisit the issue. 

In other words, how do we get the  various financial and fiscal measures just right?  Second, expand employment by any means possible.  We all know that employment and people’s livelihoods are the top priority, but also an important pillar of a stable economy.  People need income from employment to create wealth. We did not set an economic growth target or an employment growth target for 2020, what we want to do is to create structure to achieve the desired result. Therefore  we still have to do everything possible to expand employment and especially market-oriented socialization. This year’s college graduates for the first time exceeded ten million. The current employment contract rate of college graduates is higher than in previous years.  We will need to pay close attention to.  Many college students come from rural areas and often from families in more difficult circumstances.  We recently have gotten more concerned about these loans, but many families some migrant workers work hard to pay for their children to go to school, can not go to school, graduated and lost their jobs, so we must find ways to take a variety of measures To support college students experience in this way, we put the year’s unemployment insurance fund balance, there are 320 billion RMB, money policy in the Center, money in the local.  This fund will first and foremost be used to support enterprises in absorbing college graduates. The decision to use the surplus in this year’s unemployment insurance fund to subsidize enterprises this way is a resolute one.  

Of course we still have 290 million migrant workers in our country. Their income is still largely dependent on [Note: apparent omission in text.]  so you should take various measures to start the transformation of water and transportation infrastructure and town facilities, and even use the public idle funds to provide more jobs and employment.   What other measures to affect our purpose of protecting the main body of the market, but also to protect employment. The third is to find food, energy and industrial supply chains. Our country I have just said, during these two years there has been no excessive expansion of the money supply.  We do not know what we will do if we face too much pressure on this issue.  However, if the pressure becomes too great, with our population of 1.4 billion people, food issues will still be the key price indicator.

So this year must ensure that our harvest cannot be lower than last year’s. That was our request at the  beginning of the year and the area sown can not be lower than last year. We issued agricultural subsidies through field management to stimulate the enthusiasm of farmers. [Garbled text] So here I especially emphasize that this year’s summer grain should be a bumper crop. It will take a  whole year to give the market a tranquilizer pill and stabilize prices. So we must see to it that the sowing to harvest chain must not be broken. We may have now started from Hubei, from the south to the north machine harvesting, harvesting with specialized equipment, we have grown accustomed to that over the past few years. Every locality must ensure that this harvesting is successful no matter what happens. Do it right. Get harvested wheat into storage right away. This is most important. There can be no slacking on this point, do it even at the cost of restricting travel.  every locality must ensure that this is done even if it means restricting travel.  Today many food items are becoming more expensive day-by-day. China’s food supply is very stable. It must be or there would be great problems. 

So even if during harvesting, an epidemic arises, no matter what the harvest must go on. This is the most important responsibility of your local party committees and government, if you can’t stabilize production, then you must be held accountable. If the grain can’t be harvested and get it into storage in a timely manner, then, and this I especially stress, get out there and follow up on the problem right away. You see we now have 33 policy measures and are doing a second reissue of financing support. There is also the issue of energy security.  China is both an industrializing and an urbanizing country.  Food is one of the core indicators of prices, the other is energy.  If we can’t ensure energy then industry will not be able to develop. This will also lead to higher food prices. 

China still largely relies on coal for its energy supply.  Accordingly, we are developing large coal mines, especially those that have met the conditions of production, to simplify the approval process as soon as possible.  For a variety of reasons, of course, there is also a rise in international oil prices. It is bound to drive up coal prices as well. From the current projections, even if our economy has not resumed growth, this summer there will still be an energy shortfall. So in addition to allocating our resources as scientifically as possible,  we will also take advantage of modernized facilities that meet interim requirements. Coal mines should open, and should quickly make reforms.  This is not just about some large regions. Every area with coal mines that can operate safely should open them.  You should ensure a reliable energy supply; there should be no blackouts or power usage restrictions. You should ensure the industrial supply chain. The economy runs on a succession of links.  If there is no flow of goods through the marketplace then there is no economy.  If there is no circulation through the great arteries of the markets then the economy cannot operate.  

We saw this in 2020. Some localities blocked the highway.  A notice immediately went out forbidding this.  Nonetheless, that  also occurred in some places this year, for example,  affecting basic services linked to the livelihood of the people such as express services not being allowed to go from the factory to residential districts. This causes difficulties in the lives of the people and creates obstacles to the recovery of industry.  We now ask some places to resume production.  Some say this is unfair and say what do we do if they have kids at home?  As we understand the overall situation, some provinces only have one-third of their workers on the job.  So today we put forward the request that in the short term 80% should be back at work.  Innovation in the automotive industry has not recovered.  Just now Honda is prepared to again reduce its after sales vehicle fees. The after sales vehicle fees come to 60 billion yuan.  The Central Finance continues to provide support and funding to the transportation sector which is very difficult.  We can simply give out a prescription. Simply increasing consumption is no good either. If production is not restored, then there can be no supply. If there is no supply, then how can big products be promoted?  We engaged in point-to-point, green channel, contactless distribution in 2020.  These methods are effective. Our work needs to be based on the actual situation. This includes protecting the industrial supply chain.  This must be done since our national manufacturing industry is different from some developed countries where services are more important than manufacturing.  Our basic industrial technology products create employment for two or three hundred million people. So we must open up the supply chain industry, defense work and opening up the industrial chain, ensuring smooth coordinated circulation throughout the supply chain is difficult. If there is nothing difficult under Heaven, then what should we be doing?

Doing things on an individual basis is the easiest. We who do work in leadership positions, no matter which industry you do, you have the whole picture in mind, you need to act in a way that is conducive to progress in the big picture. You will certainly face dilemmas in your work. How about our economic work.  What was our bottom line in 2020? That was a choice between two bad alternatives. We only managed to sell exports worth 2 trillion RMB, a big drop. What was to blame? Many people at home thought that the economy cannot avoid serious damage.  We however make use of mechanisms through large market players.  The results were very effective. So consider that when we do things we are faced with choices between bad alternatives. Our comrades at all levels and departments should manage the dilemmas of choice as far as possible to maximize benefits and avoid harm. 

Fourth, to promote the recovery of consumption and expand effective investment, consumption is still the main driver of our economic growth. The epidemic affected not only the lives of the people but also consumption linked services involving human contact. That link caused a big economic shortfall. Many stores and small stores were left without business income, reducing local consumption and damaging the quality of life. Our comrades at all levels and departments should manage the dilemmas of choice as far as possible to maximize benefits and avoid harm. 

We must create a good development environment for the Party’s 20th Congress, which is not just an economic issue, but is also a major political issue.

So all regions and departments to see the severity of the current situation, but also to further to protect the effective work measures, efforts to promote the economy back to normal. Of course, we are in the process of promoting the full implementation of the new development work for the next year. We won’t be looking to do something big. We must make our policy conducive to both the current situation but also to be beneficial over the long run. I think the unexpected great shocks of 2020 are well past us by now.

Now some comrades say that the situation that is happening now, somehow some aspects may be more serious than in 2020, perhaps in some aspects of certain industries, but overall speaking we have two and a half years of experience.  We should be confident that despite the sudden difficulties we confronted, we actually achieved the only positive growth among the major economies of the world. Now we should also overcome the difficulties before us and achieve positive growth and a decline in unemployment during the second quarter of 2022. I’m not going to talk to you about finance here.

Financial central government is trying to find a way, you yourselves, to keep themselves, we have to do these two, then we can try to complete the main tasks of economic and social development for the whole year. One of the bases is now the key moment method. We opened this meeting with the need for everyone to be able to hear clearly.

I speak of the second point: take strong measures to stabilize the main market, to protect employment, to protect people’s livelihood, and the economy is approved. In fact, last year’s Central Economic Work Conference and this year’s government work report, the outstanding contradictions facing economic development of the problem, the introduction of a series of major policy initiatives, but also for the possible emergence of greater risk reserved policy space. In view of the recent positive changes in the economic situation, the State Council, according to the Central Economic Work Conference and the basic ideas of the government work report, introduced a package of economic stabilization initiatives 6 areas, the 33 measures of the maximum possible to strive to return the economy to normal.

Not only the central economic work conference and the government’s work report made clear the major arrangements for the various policy initiatives and the recent State Council executive meeting to determine the 33 policy measures in 6 areas, to do so urgently first or to focus on helping market players to solve their difficulties.

As I have said earlier, we now have 158 million market entrepreneurs, business households more than 100 million. This is the resilience of our Chinese economy, the foundation, facilities, we still need to focus on the market subjects, adhere to the reform and opening approach to stabilize the rise. Currently to do the market, market subjects, whether you are large enterprises, or small and medium-sized micro enterprises, farmers and merchants at all levels, can not be ignored but currently the most difficult are small and medium-sized micro enterprises and financial, and manufacturing industries to create the problem of poor industrial chain. For special difficult industries, such as the banking industry, we also need to give support, but in general are around the market players to implement fiscal and monetary policy.

So even in the process of harvesting stores, if found to have an epidemic, how to pull away, the harvest process must not stop. The basic responsibility of your local party committees and governments, if you can’t stabilize production, then you have to be  accountable, if you can’t harvest the grain into storage in a timely manner, and then I especially emphasize, and then draw two yards down, we have to hurry to follow down in a timely manner. You see we now 33 policy inside the second reissue financing level, and then is the security of energy, China is in the industrialization urbanization technology, food is the core indicator of prices, the other is energy energy energy does not ensure that this industry is difficult to develop, and it will also lead to price increases.

Including we now still have over 10 million rural people moving into our cities every year.  There is a steady demand for housing, we insist on preventing quite a few, at the same time to follow the requirements of the economic work conference and government work report, stable price, stable house prices, stable support, or to support rigid and improved housing demand. The policy now can make corresponding adjustments to boost consumption, to maintain the stable and healthy development of the real estate market and real estate industry.

Another is the infrastructure, in  technology there is actually a lot of room for investment.  We are still developing , we are still a development, all our investment over the years to focus has focused on what is visible and of course these things have been very beneficial to the people. However, like some water conservancy projects,  diversion of waters for  irrigation, and old neighborhood renovation projects, and some general transportation projects are also important. Don’t just focus on the fast like  high-speed rail. We need more ordinary railroads, we opened more mileage than the largest developed countries but we  are still far from matching the developed countries in this area.  However I do hope that  these projects will move along smoothly.  I hope that the relevant departments taking part in this telephone and television conference will promote online product approval processes especially on long approval processes.  Seize the moment to make good use of national long-term debt, local bonds.  We will introduce other policy and commercial measures to promote long-term loans.

Now promoting investments that lead to other projects are a strong engine for economic growth. Some localities focus on how many projects they are starting. Perhaps they have 100 and 200 projects starting up at the same time.  This is not necessary, these projects should be handled according to their particular provisions.  Start when they should start.  Some earlier than others depending upon the procedures involved. Why should they all start at the same time? You do not be preoccupied with formalities, but must be through a variety of measures, including cooperating with people in U.S. society, and with the military districts to make adjustments based on your own situation. Fifth, efforts to stabilize foreign trade, foreign investment basically last year are the reason why our economy grew 8.1%, in addition to the previous year’s foundation, the important position of import and export to achieve great benefits. This year we encountered a wide range of serious and increased difficulties but to see that 70% of our manufacturing industry depends upon imported components, imports that bring in  key equipment.  China’s imports are indirectly and directly related to 180 million jobs.

In any case, we also have  to open up  international markets, to promote the core imports that I mentioned. The Center has two direct taxes, it shares revenues from the others with the localities. The largest tax is the tariff.  If the ports are full but the goods are not unloaded, then we don’t get to collect that tariff.  The central tariff is mainly used for national security.  To be honest with you, as far as national defense is concerned, this direct tax of the Center is in the Center’s pocket, that cannot be denied.  So we must open up international routes, we have to orderly increase the number of domestic and international flights, the development of foreign enterprises to facilitate the movement of people out, we also have to continue to create a market-oriented, legal, internationalized state. The first is to effectively protect people’s livelihood, livelihood which is our most basic system. We should recognize the reality that the effects of the epidemic on the income of the residents has brought serious difficulties, in particular to low-income people who now face more difficulties in flexible employment. Therefore, governments at all levels should listen to the people’s voices and do a good job in protecting people’s livelihood with care and effort.

China still has more than 40 million low-income people and special special hardship supporters, these difficult groups, and poverty alleviation. We consolidate the results, we have to put them in mind, put in mind, must protect their basic livelihood. I told you that unemployment insurance benefits, we use to subsidize college students’ employment to us to rotate jobs, but the central and local  need to go all out, using their various  funds to protect the minimum incomes for the very poor and support for people with special circumstances.  We must have confidence that we can accomplish this. When I say we need to go all out on this issue, I mean that the government must be frugal. Take money from the appropriate funds. This task must be done properly. If you are not paying attention to this, it will not get done.  Of course, there is also the problem of medical care and medical insurance during the epidemic. From the materials that I have seen, I should say that medical insurance plays a big role. The protests about inadequate coverage of tests and vaccines by medical insurance may be because medical insurance was rolled out in some but not all localities and that some localities where medical insurance had not been rolled some localities had already stopped paying for medical insurance from public funds. In the current situation, do not casually reduce these payments. This is an issue important for calming the hearts of  the people.  Previously we set the reimbursement ratio previously reported by how much was reported, now the reimbursement is based on the product used.  Earlier we defined the scope and you were not able to expand it, now we also have to reimburse varieties, previously set what the scope or what, you can not afford to expand, but can not ensure the basic livelihood of the people which must be protected.

Finally, I will talk about the third issue, all regions and departments must effectively fulfill their responsibilities to stabilize the economy and promote measures to tighten  implementation. We want to implement and intelligent economic  strategy I just mentioned in  the second quarter.  We want to bring the unemployment rate back down and to stabilize price. But this is not easy. This can’t be just talk.  You must act. The policy of the Center, based on the Economic Work Conference and the Government Work Report, the State Council Standing Committee adopted 33 policies. . Each department will devise specific measures to implement these policies. Local governments must be on board with these policies and measures if they are to be successful.

For example, on tax rebates, if the localities do not support them, then a mechanism to prevent tax evasion will not operate properly.  If this is so, then there will be much tax evasion and in the end it will harm our policies.  So the localities must be on board with this. You must find a way to support the money in place, no matter how difficult your own finances are. The market will be the first to push back. Local market players, especially small and micro enterprises and individual entrepreneurs, are likely to be on the edge of  collapse.  Your localities  need to find a way to follow policy, not only local taxes, like water and electricity rent, in addition to state-owned enterprises, there are also private enterprises that we can not just pay their rent. Watch subsidies and utilities,  figure out how to stabilize them, so that the eastern coastal areas can promote the resumption of work and production. Just now I said at least 80% back to work and production.  Try to get people back to work full time. This is also related to some areas in the center and the west which also have large industrial centers.

State-owned enterprises also want to put this year’s fiscal revenue down some, I just said in April, but measures to promote the strength of the relatively large, short-term decline is inevitable. Deduct this factor in the decline, to this extent how to do? Each local government must find ways to increase incomes and cut costs.  Those of you who can do so should use the money so that along with the government over the next  few months funds can be used, to protect the market and to protect employment.  Increasing incomes and cutting costs are actually the same thing.  This is a kind of revolution within the government: don’t see the people as merely a  source of income. If you do have that attitude, then things will certainly be bad for the people.   I was in a locality, and saw the measures that the relevant departments were taking. I made changes to correct those documents  this time, so that our work takes shape.  Advancing 4 meters this month, and then advancing 4.2 meters the next.  I asked him, what is this about?

I told him that because there are obstacles imposed from above you can not advance, you can’t advance without paying a fee, do you understand? Don’t think small, think big.  In fact, people are angrily grinding away their garlic.  I spoke with 17 households.  They are certainly not enjoying holidays these days. But I said that they are doing well,  I told them,  and he told me how the husband and wife worked away from home and sent money back home. how he gave the couple two working outside, have a sports car, and then earn money as much as possible to send home. At home are two elderly people with two children, the oldest child also has two children, I said you are having a difficult time yet you have filial piety sending money home as you do.  He had angry words for me.  We must consider the  livelihood of the people and their great difficulties in earning a living.  All relevant parties also need to coordinate closely.  We have already set out 33  policies and designated the responsible lead departments. The localities must be on board with the plan and coordinate with higher levels.  We must also make allowances for some local particularities that we at the Center may not be acquainted with.  

In a word, the Party Central Committee and State Council clearly set forth policies  to stabilize the economy, stabilize the basic economic situation, but also the Six Guarantees  [Note: The “six guarantees” refer to ensuring the employment of residents, the basic livelihood of the people, the main market players, food and energy security, the stability of the industrial chain supply chain, and the operation of the grassroots. End note]   to ensure, especially the first three to ensure that the main market, to ensure employment to ensure the name, you go around to understand the specific situation, and timely measures. Here I clearly said that in order to speed up the implementation of policy, the State Council decided to send out twelve  inspection teams, headed by comrades in charge of the relevant departments. Today we also asked the head of the inspection team at the meeting to go around to understand and supervise the implementation of the Center’s policy implemented by the State Council. Your own supporting policies and related implementation to analyze whether we can achieve our goals, make specialized reports, and so we will make policy adjustments based on the actual situation. 

I would like to talk about the main economic indicators for  the second quarter of this year, the state to be from the National Bureau of Statistics as the law stipulates.  This year, however,  because of special circumstances, in fact, we are doing it the same way as every year. These statistics are being assembled by the provinces from which we will calculate  the GDP in the second quarter of this year, the experimental deduction of tax rebates after the fiscal revenue situation, divided among the provinces where their officials seek to benefit the entire society.  We need to benefit all the people, I want to implement this without being ashamed of myself in front of the masses. In the second half of the steady growth around the market, to protect the main body of the market, to protect employment, to protect people’s livelihood,  We must report to the State Council and report to the Party Central Committee so we must view this task even more urgently  and enhance the sense of responsibility.

My last point of emphasis, but also to coordinate the development and security, effective prevention of major corruption cases. In this year’s strictly complex and severe domestic and international environment, all regions and departments must enhance their  awareness of secure  development, and focus on the bottom line.  We need to seriously check for risks and hidden dangers, especially the secure production and storage cannot be relaxed. We must strive to seek out and learn lessons from information we obtain. We should absorb lessons from information, learn lessons from aviation accidents, from  self-built housing accidents  and other safety accidents. in-depth investigation of key areas of safety hazards, and resolutely prevent  the recurrence of major accidents. This year, China began the flood season half a month early.  To face up to this challenge, I went to Tibet and found that there was a 30% increase in hydropower.  This will factor into our power generation.  Everything has two sides to it;, it is possible to bring to go so must be based on the prevention of large floods, prevention of large risks, save the disaster, effective prevention of major floods and typhoons and other natural disasters, to ensure the safety of people’s lives and property. Food and medicine are directly related to the health of the people, but also to strengthen supervision, to keep the quality and safety of the bottom line, but also to maintain the overall situation of society.

Comrades, the difficulties we face is indeed special, you are grim, but we must have firm confidence and rise to the occasion, I believe that under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core, with Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for the New Era as the guide, all regions and departments to conscientiously implement the decisions and plans of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, we have the ability to  stabilize the economy,  to maintain the operation of the economy within a reasonable range, the economic operation to maintain a reasonable range and to take practical actions to prepare for the meeting of the 20th Party Congress. I conclude here. 


Premier Li Keqiang just made an important speech, an in-depth analysis of the current difficulties and challenges facing China’s economic operation, a profound exposition of the importance of stabilizing the economy, the next phase of work to make a comprehensive deployment and scoring.

Currently another variety of pneumonia is feared by all. As a result China’s economic development is facing growing risks and uncertainties.  Ensuring stable growth, stable employment, stable prices are all becoming more difficult. All regions and departments should be guided by Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese characteristics in the New Era.  We should conscientiously implement the decisions and policies deployed by the Party Central Committee and the State Council, implement the spirit of today’s meeting and the spirit of Premier Li Keqiang’s important speech. Premier Li Keqiang in his speech stressed  preventing epidemics, stabilizing the economy, and meeting the requirements for secure development, working together with colleges and universities on epidemic prevention and control. He also called on economic and social cadres to do a solid job to help enterprises to promote distress, resuming work and production to reach production, to maintain the industrial chain supply chain stability, to protect food and energy security and stability, to expand employment, and to ensure the grassroots Three Guarantees  and other work. In a word, maintain the operation of the economy within a reasonable range.

After today’s meeting, please attend the meeting of the governors and mayors and autonomous regions as  the chairman of the provincial and municipal party committee secretary to make their reports conveying the spirit of today’s meeting to the provinces, municipalities directly under the Central Government, autonomous regions, to the Standing Committees of the Party Committee conveying the spirit of the meeting working jointly grasp on its implementation. This afternoon’s meeting will be held here. Adjourned.






总理、各位领导,今年以来,在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下,各地区各部门坚持稳字当头,稳中求进,有力统筹疫情防控和经济社会发展。我国经济运行总体实现平稳开局,但 3 月份以来,新冠肺炎疫情和乌克兰危机导致风险挑战增多,我国经济发展环境的复杂性、严峻性不确定性上升,需求收缩,供给冲击一体转弱,三重压力进一步加大,提高制造业发展速度明显放缓,复工复产企业生产负荷整体偏低,畅通产业链供应链仍然有制约。

4 月份规模以上工业增加值同比下降 2.9%,全社会用电量同比下降 1.2%,物业和消费恢复面临比较大的制约。4 月份社会消费品零售总额同比下降 7.1%,制造业采购经理指数,非制造业商务活动指数分别为 47.4% 和 41.9%,继续处于荣沽线以下,稳定出口难度有所上升,市场主体特别是中小微企业和个体工商户生产经营困难增多,高校毕业生等重点群体就业问题更加突出 4 月份。

全国城镇调查失业率为 6.1%,31 个大城市城镇调查失业率为 6.7%,重点地区受冲击比较大,有的地区财政收入下滑,4 月份全国财政收入扣除留底退税之后,同口径下降 5.9%,国际大宗商品价格高位运行,导致输入性通货膨胀压力加大,稳增长、稳就业、稳物价面临新的严峻挑战。经济下行压力持续加大,现在经济运行中新出现的突出矛盾和问题。



一是加大宏观政策的调节力度,把稳增长放在更加突出的位置,实施好积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策,加快落实已经确定的 6 方面 33 项一揽子措施,进一步加强经济建设、预测预警和政策的议员储备,实施优化完善政策组合,健全政策文件的评估机制,推动新出台政策与宏观政策取向保持一致,加强政策的解读和预期的引导,主动回应社会关切,稳定预期,增强信心。

二是充分发挥有效投资的关键作用,全面加强基础设施建设,有力有序有效的推进十四五规划 102 项重大工程的实施,强化土地用能排名等保障,抓紧推动一批论证多年条件成熟的重大项目开工建设,做到应开尽开能开尽开,加快下达中央预算的投资计划,加快地方政府专项债券发行使用,并扩大支持领域,引导做好信贷资金与专项债券资金的有效衔接,力争尽快形成更多的实物工作量。





1~4 月全国财政支出增长 5.9%,明显快于收入增幅,到规模退税超预期。截至 5 月 23 日,累计退税约 1.15 万亿元,直接增加企业现金流,地方政府专项债券集中发力,截至 5 月 23 日,累计发行新增专项债券 1.67 万亿元,有力支持扩大有效投资。

根据形势最新变化,国务院常务会议近期及时部署了扎实稳固经济的六方面 33 项一揽子措施,我们将不折不扣抓好财政相关政策的落实。

一是进一步加大增值税留抵退税政策力度,在更多行业实施存量和增量全额留底退税,增加退税千四百多亿元,全年退税减税总量约 2.64 万亿元,会从税务总局抓紧办理退税,同时加强退税风险防范,严惩偷税骗税。


三是加快地方政府专用债券发行使用,并扩大适用范围。要确保用于项目建设的 3.45 万亿元,地方政府专项债券额度 6 月底前基本发行完毕,力争在 8 月底前基本使用到位。同时将专项在线知识领域扩大到新型基础设施新能源项目的督促地方加快专项债券支出进度,会同发展改革委指导地方,抓紧做好项目储备和资金需求申报工作,防止全等项目提高资金使用效益,尽快形成实物工作量。

四是通过融资担保政府采购,支持中小微企业舒困发展,落实新增国家融资担保基金,再担保合作业务规模 1 万亿元以上,支持缓解中小微企业个体工商户融资困难,加大政府采购支持力度,将面向小微企业的价格扣除比例提高至 10~20%,降低中小企业参与政府采购工程门槛,将预留采购份额,今年阶段性提高到 40% 以上。

五是加大园区文岗支持力度,在确保各项社会保险待遇按时足额支付的前提下,将中小微企业,个体工商户和 5 个特困行业返缴养老等 3 项保险费政策阶段性实施至今年底,并扩围至受疫情严重冲击行业内大面积出现企业生产经营困难,符合国家产业政策导向的其他特困产业,将大型企业轮岗返岗返还比例由 30% 提至 50%,拓宽失业保险由工补助受益范围。



各位领导,各位同事,今年以来在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下,人民银行坚决贯彻落实党中央国务院决策部署,靠前发力,加大金融支持稳增长力度,全面降准靠前上缴,也存利润,释放长期流动性。两次引导贷款市场报价利率下行,及时推出普惠小微贷款支持工具和科技创新、普惠养老、交通物流专项贷款等结构性政策工具,推出 23 条举措,支持疫情防控和经济社会发展,完善房地产金融政策。
4 月末,广义货币供应量、M2、社会融资规模、贷款余额同比增长均保持在 10% 以上。1~4 月,企业新发放的贷款平均利率 4.39,是有统计记录以来的低位。

根据中央政治局会议和国务院常务会议的决策部署,按照国务院金融委的工作要求,近日人民银行召开了分支行货币政策和信贷政策分析会,会同银保监会召开了 24 家主要金融机构的会议,部署地方法人金融机构和全国性金融机构扩增量,稳存量,全力以赴实现 5 月份新增贷款的合理增长,保持全年信贷平稳增长。


一是确保货币政策力度到位,将流动性总量保持在较合理充裕略高的水平,提早完成全年上缴结算利润。在确保货币政策总量充裕的同时,发挥好结构优化的作用,将今年储备小微贷款支持工具的额度和支持比例增加一倍,对地方法人金融机构普惠小微贷款余额的增量,支持的资金比例由 1% 提高到 2%,增加支农支小再贷款的额度,引导中小金融机构加大为小微贷款的投放力度,推动国有大型银行今年新增普惠小微贷款投放 1.6 万亿元,实施好碳减排工具和支持煤炭清洁高效,利用科技创新、普惠养老、交通物流专项再贷款等结构性工具,预计提供再贷款资金超过 1.4 万亿元。

二是突出金融支持重点领域,引导金融机构加快已授信贷款的放款进度,拟新增政策性开发性信贷额度 8,000 亿元,加强交通、能源、水利等基础设施建设,会同相关部门梳理企业和项目清单,引导金融机构按市场化方式提供长期贷款,增加 1,500 亿民航应急贷款,支持民航业发行 2,000 亿元的债券,督促金融机构坚持两个毫不动摇,加大对民营企业的支持力度,尽快矫正对民营房企信贷收缩的行为。因城施策支持合理住房需求,维护房地产市场的平稳运行,引导平台经济健康发展,会同工信部科技部等相关部门,在保民生、就业科技创新方面建立平台企业的白名单制度,给予相关的融资支持。








我国经济运行总体实现平稳开局,一二月份主要指标,但是新一轮疫情多发和俄乌冲突等超预期因素影响,3 月份以来,特别是 4 月份,经济指标明显下滑,4 月份规模以上工业增加值由 3 月份同比增长 53% 月份实际上已经放缓了转为下降 2.9%,服务业生产指数下降 6.1%,降幅比 3 月份扩大了 5.2 个百分点,社会消费品零售总额下降 11.1%,两位数的下降不仅比 3 月份扩大了 7.6 个百分点,而且这是我们有统计消费以来,能够速度下降过快的约 4 场 4 月份新开工的项目也在回笼,当月进出口仅增长 0.1%,其中出口增速比 3 月份回落了 11 个百分点,全社会用电量由 3 月份增长 3.5% 转为下降 1.2%,经济的影响已经开始冲击我们的财政收入。

4 月份我们的确进行了大规模的退税,地方也做了配套,但主要是中央考察,其结果是扣除留底退税的因素,4 月份全国财政收入从口径下降 5.9%,尤其是地方财政收入下降更快,下降 6.6%。特别是长三角地区,这些地方都是对中央收入净贡献的,大幅度最大的降幅到 32%,小的也是在超过了全国的平均降幅,我说的是 5、收折这几个我们主要的税收来源。

当然前几个月地方的收入还受到房地产市场的影响,土地使用权出让收入下降 29.8%,很多地方财政矛盾是不是在加大?最近已经有几个省给国务院打报告,提出来要借钱。



进入 4 月份以来,进入 5 月份以来,随着一些地方疫情逐步得到控制,复工复产开始推进,经济运行有所恢复,但是势头还是比较脆弱,实物量目标增速仍然没有转成。现在到 1 月 20 号,5 月份的前两局,发电量运输量和新增贷款量都是负的,所以从现在情况看,5 月份当月要改变负增长的情况,要下很大的力量,所以今天开这个会的意思就是刻不容缓。

大家要采取各种有效的措施,指数经济下滑的情况,因为现在有我国经济滑出合理区间的危险,我多次在会上讲过,中国作为这么一个大的经济体,一旦运行滑出合理区间,要想再拉回来,不付出巨大代价和更长时间是很难做到的。所以现在要明确要求各有关部门和各地方要采取措施,争取 6 月份能够稳定上升,有所恢复。

我在这里讲这个会议给大家提一个指标,努力确保二季度我国经济正增长,这个目标不高,比我们年初提出 5.5 的增长目标差得太远,或者明显的差,但是从实际出发的也必须这样做。

因为二季度在我国 GDP 当中,全年劳动了账 1/4 以上,如果二季度的到今年上半年,虽然一季度我们正增长 4.8,但是总量小,上半年的情况不是不好看的,它会带来一系列的问题,从目前情况看,我们市场主体这是市场经济的微观基础,有两年来疫情反复冲击,很多中小微企业个体工商长期承受成本上升,需求乏力,利润下降的多重压力。


我们大家知道我国市场主体一直保持着较快的增长速度,市场如此,有生有死,但是从 10 年前的不到 5,000 万户到现在的 1 亿 5,000 万,这是来之不易。在今年 4 月份的同比下降了 12.8%,企业注销数量也增长了 23.1%,不光是增速下降,注销的也就是说深的少了,紫的多了,而且剪刀差还在扩大。多年来少有的情况,我们说保持经济运行在合理区间实现正增长机制。后面有两个最重要的孩子,一个就是就业,我多次讲过,只要有比较充分的就业和不断增长的收入,稳定的物价经济增速高一点,第一点可以接受,但是经济增速过低了,它直接会冲击现在我们的失业率在连续攀升。

4 月份全国城镇调查失业率环比上升 0.3 个百分点,已经达到 6.1%,特别是 31 个大城市,调查失业率高达 6.7%,尤其是 16 岁到 24 岁青年调查事故,这里面就说我们的大学生为 18.2%,有这项统计以来,最高值的外来农村人口的职业率也在上升好。在吗?

我们还是作为发展中国家,坚持家庭承包责任制那块地还是能养的,但是城镇就越认可,失业率的大幅攀升带来的后果是严重的,特别是短时间还可以长时间,我说的长时间实际上是以进度为算,比如我超过一个季度 4 个问题,所以这里边要明确提出不行,二季度要正增长,二季度的失业率要下去,不能再判断。

我们在 2020 年疫情冲击最严重的时候,也就是 6.6 以上这个水平,一个季度以后就都下来了。所以如果说失业率继续攀升,再叠加到我们今年大学毕业生是历史最高 1,000 万人以上带来的后果。大家理想实际上跟我们的经济增速是相关的,我们说我们不片面追求警惕,但是不是不要紧逼,跟失业率直接相关。

今年由于这一段情况的变化,外界特别是国际组织在纷纷调低我们的 GDP 的增长,甚至认为可能会在全年在三以下,我们不能接受三以下是什么时候?我们在 2020 年疫情突如袭来冲击的时候,只有一个季度深度的跌到了 6.8,但是全年实现了正增长。
2.3,后来调整是 2.2,改革开放 40 年来,也就是 89 90 年,因为大家都知道的影响那个时候在 2% 左右,3% 那个城所以还有导致了当时我们没有失业率,调查指标实际上导致失业情况较大的中国在今年的情况下不能回去。

另外一个方面,当然我们也有信心,这个信息目前物价还在可控范围之内,当前物价上涨虽然有压力,将 4 月份居民的消费价格上涨到 2.1,涨幅上线,上个月扩大了 0.6 分。


而相反我们在 2020 年经济一有恢复,就储存了一些特定的事物,储存了两年,这个是我们手工还仍然有应对经济下行压力的工具,因为不至于不能控制住基本的物价。大家都知道,市场经济最重要的最灵敏的型号还是不加,一旦发生严重打败的生活之一,并且严重影响人民群众,特别是低收入,我刚才讲到经济林在合理区间,其中有一项是保持居民收入不断的增长,我们今年保持共享,在稳定的状况下,居民的收入如果通过市场主体和就业能够稳住。让我们平均收入基本是我们的经济应该合理区间的主要指标。

跟大家开会讲今年讲二级,我后面还要讲各省的责任,各地的责任,各部门的责任。但是总的来讲,一定要看到我们国家还是发展中国家,发展是解决我国一切问题的基础关键,不管是保就业、保民生都需要发展。持续做好疫情防控,你也得有财力和物质保障。如果经济滑出合理区间,甚至有一段时间和长期积累的矛盾和各种风险隐患也被集中暴露,所以我想不发展是最大的,当前的主要困难我们都分析了,我们要看到我国亿万人民群众勤劳智慧,我们现在有 1.5 亿市场创新,一定要保护住他们的韧性,有建议说给老百姓直接发钱,自己消费而消费不畅。中国这么大很不平衡,有的地方从城市角度采取一些措施,我们规范。


所以各地区各部门要看到当前形势的严峻性,同时又要进一步以保障有效的工作措施,努力推动经济回归正常。当然我们在推动过程当中是全面的贯彻新发展明年不搞大事,还是使我们的政策既有利于当前,立足当前,也有利长远。我想 2020 年我们突发突如其来的一局冲击都过去了。

现在有些同志说现在发生的情况,某种程度上某些方面比 2020 年可能还严重,也许在某些行业中有些方面是这样,但总体讲我们有两年半的经验,应该有信心,突如其来的困难都过来了,我们居然实现了当年世界主要经济当中的唯一正增长。现在我们也应该克服眼前的困难,实现二季度的正增长,实现二季度失业率的下降。我这里就不跟你们讲财政。


我讲第二点,采取有力措施,稳市场主体、保就业、保民生,经济批准了。实际上去年的中央经济工作会议和今年政府工作报告,对经济发展面临的突出矛盾的问题,出台了一系列重大的政策举措,也为可能出现了更大风险预留的政策空间。鉴于近期经济形势出现积极性变化,引起国务院根据中央经济工作会议和政府工作报告的基本思路,又出台了一揽子的稳经济举措 6 个方面,

33 项目的尽最大可能争取让经济回归正常的当前我们就需要这 33 项。

不光是把中,央经济工作会议和政府工作报告所明确的各项政策举措重大安排和最近国务院常务会确定的 6 个方面 33 项举措,抓紧做到位首先还是要着力帮市场主体舒困解难。

我前面已经讲了,我们现在有 1.58 亿的市场主体个体,工商户超过 1 亿户,这个是我们中国经济的韧性、基础、设施,我们还是要围绕着市场主体,坚持用改革开放的办法来稳住兴起。当前要做市场,市场主体,不管你是大企业,还是中小微企业,各级农商户,都不能忽视但是目前困难最多的还是中小微企业和金融,还有制造业创造的产业链的不畅问题。对特殊的困难行业,比如像银行业,我们也要给予支持,但是总的来讲都是围绕市场主体来实施财政和货币政策。

我们对国企、民企、外企、各类市场都要一视同仁,充分调动他们的积极和创造性,坚持用市场化的办法,改革的举措来解决难题。大家恐怕已经看到了,我们退税上面 4 月份的速度是很快,我到地方去调研,地方同志说帐篷算的是对的,虽然地方也要配套,在中央拿了 80% 甚至 85%,他们算账说明年等我今天拿 1520% 换来明年的 55%,增值税是 50%。中央做地方分享的,特别是企业,企业认为市场总体认为达到了真金白银,现在很多地方的经营困难,销售收入下降,我们有减税的政策,但是我们减的是流转税,我们主体是增值税,他都没有流转了,没有销售收入了,你减税政策,他也享受不到,所以退税是十几,年来陈年老账把它退回去,对市场的风险给渡过难关。

不仅如此,我们还要缓交中小微企业和个体工商户以及 5 个测控行业,这 5 个测绘行业,包括了一些大企业,把他们的社保费延交到今年年底。这两项加起来大家想想,2020 年我们实施的措施力度要更大。2020 年我们社保费免交是 1.7 万亿,加上减税一共是 25,000 亿,现在我们光退税 1 万六,减退税 25,000,再加上 3,000 亿社保费,还有其他的一些数据,不低于 3 万亿,支持市场,看我们能不能把政策落下去。

比如我和市场主体很多方面都进行过交谈,他们认为这些市场主体,特别是中小微企业个体工商户,我们收入水平还没有到 2019 年,如果能够回归 2019 年的水平,他们就感到很满意了。我们的人民群众是非常善良的,而且对未来还是充满希望。所以我们今天如果把 3 万亿现在说左右,可能下一步以上,我们中央财政正在继续收缴前两年的而当前的某些特定结余还是要把市场主体保住,留住青山,您的未来这些都需要地方云配套,我这里要求的就是这些政策要抓清楚。

另一方面就是贷款,现在我们的货币政策,应该说这两年是金字虫考验,在最困难的时候冲击最严重的时候,我们没有超发,货币目前出现的问题是金融机构贷款增长报,4 月份当月人民币贷款同比少增 8200,多亿,社会融资规模增量比上年同比少增,现在这个不是好事。银行他自己哪来的钱?存款进来的,存款进来你要付息,现在通过贷款,这是基本手段,当然还有其他手段,贷款结果是少存的,我们现在人民群众又愿意存款,担心后面有困难一些群众存款的增加,贷款都贷不出去,实际上不仅影响经济发展,还会给金融带来风险。所以我们下决心要加大重点投资项目金融的支持力度,我到地方去了和一些水利项目上千亿投资都认证了十几年了,因为钱不够,你们用国债支持用专项债,而且可以正在人民银行也正在发放,长期必须在支持这些长期和有收入的项目,对那些消费贷款也要采取措施。因为在地方看到了我们的车企业都是央企贷款,贷车给实际是代车通过贷款的手段代车给个体司机,他们要还款,刚刚央企做了决定,两引起联合办,把半年之内司机说我们不打折扣,现在太困难,缓一缓就可以先缓半年,半年以后再说。

总而言之,把各项财政金融措施怎么样围绕着宝石上要把它落到位。第二,千方百计的扩大就业,大家都知道就业民生的头等大事,也是稳经济的重要支柱,有就业这种收入才能创造财富。我们在 2020 年没有确定经济增长指标,确定一个就业增长指标,实现了结果结构,所以还是要想尽办法来扩大就业岗位,特别是市场化社会化。今年的高校毕业生首次超过 1,000 万,目前高校毕业生就业签约率比往年的大家要看到,不少大学生从农村来,有的是也有不少是家庭比较困难,我们最近把数学贷款关心延长了,但是很多家庭一些农民工辛辛苦苦供孩子上学,不能上学,毕业了就失业,所以我们一定要想办法采取各种措施来支持大学生经历这样的话,我们把全年的失业保险基金结余当中,还有 3,200 亿,钱政策在中央,钱在地方,这笔资金首先用于支持企业吸纳高校毕业生,企业吸纳高校毕业生就业的,要把这结余的职业保险基金补贴企业就是要勇敢,破了。

当然我们国家还有 2.9 亿的农民工,他们的收入主要还得靠现在已经主要靠大部分来说,所以你们还是要采取各种措施启动水利交通基础城镇设施的改造,甚至可以用以公怠政的办法来提供更多的工作和就业。还有什么措施要影响我们保市场主体的目的,也是为了保就业。第三就是要找粮食、能源和产业链供应链。我们国家我刚才讲了,前两年没有超发货币,我们不面临这方面通过什么样的压力,但是如果太大了,14 亿人口,粮食问题仍然是物价当中的核心指标。


所以即便在收割店过程当中,如果发现有疫情,该怎么拉走,收获进程一定不能停。你们各地方党委和政府的基本责任,如果不能稳产,那就得问责了,如果不能把粮食及时收割入库,再有我特别强调一下,然后抽了两码下来,我们要赶紧及时的跟下去。你看我们现在 33 条政策里面已经第二次再发放融资水平,再就是能源的安全,中国是在工业化城镇化技术,粮食是物价的核心指标,另外一个就是能源能源不保证这个产业就很难发展,而且它也会导致物价的上涨。


我们曾经在 2020 年的时候遇到过,有的地方阻断高速公路,当时就下了通知,坚决不允许今年居然还有发生还有一个微循环,像基本的民生的动议,快递不能直接到工厂到社区,人民生活有困难,产业也很难恢复。我们现在要求一些地方复产不公,怎么想怕小孩子抱着都说是服了,目前我们掌握情况拉长远,有的省是 1/3,所以今天大家提出要求,短期内至少要恢复到 80% 以上,像汽车产业创新也没有恢复。刚刚我们是下了本田准备再降车后费,车后费 600 亿元,中央财政而且给交通的支持不减,支出不减,这是非常不容易的。调剂出来不行,如果你就可以拉动消费。如果达产不到,你没有供应,怎么能把这些大宗产品推动起来?我们 2020 年的时候就搞过点对点,绿色通道、无接触配送,这些方法都是有效的,所以还是各地要从你们的实际出发,包括产业链要保障,如果不保证产业链,我们国家制造业还是有我们不像有些发达的国家服务业占大制造业,还是我们的基本产业技术产品,带动了就业人口两三亿人。所以一定要把供应链产业打通,防御工作和打通产业链,供应链大动脉畅通微循环应该是统筹很难。天下要是没有难事,要我们干什么?

搞单打击是最容易的。我们做工作在领导岗位上,不管你做哪个行业的工作,你都是心中有全局,你做的事情一定是有利于全局,你在处理工作当中一定会有两难多难,要我们经济工作怎么样?2020 年的时候到底多大规模?真是两难选择。国际上对我们当时只出售 2 万亿,新增规模一片,指责谁?国内也认为按经济保不住了,但是我们采取大市场主体的机制,而结果是效果非常有效。所以我们干什么事情都是两难的问题。我们各级各部门同志都要把这两难的选择尽可能趋利避害。


包括我们现在每年仍然有 1000 多万农村人口进城,对住房是存在着刚性需求,我们坚持防止不少,同时要按照经济工作会议和政府工作报告的要求,稳计价、稳房价、稳支持,还是要支持刚性和改善性住房需求。在现在政策上可以做相应的调整,拉动消费,要保持房地产市场和房地产业的平稳健康发展。


现在要形成一个投资有了,他投资拉动了,继续形成有力的拉动力量,当然也不要作秀,有些时候看有的地方据说是多少个项目,100 个 200 个项目一起开工,这个没有必要,这都是按规定来,该开工就开工,该什么时候开工开工,你能快一点按程序开工就开工,为什么要集中到一起?你不搞形式主义,但是一定要通过多种措施,包括在美国社会的合作,军区内的模式调整自己的社会。第五,努力稳住外贸,外资基本去年我国经济之所以 8.1 的增幅,除了因为前年基础地之外,重要的位置进出口取得很大的好处。今年我们遇到困难走遍形势走变困难剧增,但是要看到我们 70% 的制造业是要进口零部件,进口是关键设备,甚至原则进出口也是间接直接的带有 1.8 亿人的球员。


我国还有 4000 多万低保人和特供特困供养人员,这些困难群体,还有脱贫攻坚,我们巩固成果,这些我们都要把他们放在心上,放在脑子里,一定要保障他们的基本生活。我跟大家讲失业保险金,我们用来补贴大学生就业来我们就来轮岗,但是中央财政和地方财政砸锅卖铁也得保低保特困供养人员,搞最基本的名师,这一点我们还是应该有信心的,我们能不能做到?我说砸锅卖铁的意思就是说政府要过紧日子,你把那些钱该扣的扣出来,也不能在这上面工作不到位,不是打主意的问题,是工作不到位不行。当然还有像疫情期间有群众的看病、就医、医保,我最近看过材料,应该说这也能起了很大作用,而且是这次抗议过程当中,这些检测疫苗低保超前没有完全搞材质,但是可能是不是因为医保也分在各地一些地方就出现了,可能手头上紧了,过去医保报销的政策收缩了,在当前的情况下轻易不要收缩,这是一个稳定民心的问题。以前我们定的报销比例以前报了多少,现在还得报销品种,以前定的是什么范围还是什么,你没有能力扩大了,但不能实现基本民生,一定要保障。

最后我讲第三个问题,各地区各部门要切实履行稳定经济的职责,推动各项措施抓紧落地水平。我们要实现刚才讲的二季度经济智能战略,失业率回落,物价稳住,这个是不容易的。这不是你嘴上说能说出来的,必须干。中央的政策,从经济工作会议,政府工作报告到刚国务院常委会通过的 33 项措施,各部门细化落,但是地方一定要成功。

比如说退税的事情,地方不配套,偷税这个机制就不对,偷税漏税就会大量发生,最后让我们的政策走形了。所以地方一定要配到,你们要想办法把钱配套到位,不管你财政有多困难,先把市场给推倒了,还有像地方的市场主体,特别是小微企业个体工商户,很可能面临贫民倒闭的边缘,你地方要想办法出席政策,不光地方税费,像水电房租,除了国有的私有的,我们不能随便给他定租金,但你看看怎么有补助的办法,补贴的办法,还有水电费,怎么能让他们能够把他们稳住,让东部沿海地区要抓紧推动复工复产要打起来。刚才我讲至少得有个 80%,努力把实际的时间抢回来,它是跟中西部的一些直接相关,这是大产业中心。

国企也要把今年财政收入下降一些,刚才我讲 4 月份说,但推进的措施力度比较大,短期内下降这是难免的。扣除这个因素在下降,到达这个程度怎么办?各地方政府要想办法开源节流,把你们那些能用的钱让政府过几个月的钱拿出来,保市场估计保就业,节流开源,节流实际上都是一回事,政府自己自我革命,你别开源,找老百姓去收费,老百姓真是不容易,我这次在一个地方,我们中央有关部门正在采取措施,马上要纠正他前面下的文件,公务成型,那 4 米就可以了,这两个月就 4 米 2 了,我就问他,我说这怎么回事?

我说是因为上面有障碍你过不去,交费就过不去,你知道吗?也别打小算盘,打大算盘,实际上我们为人民群众他们的生气磨大蒜,我跟他们 17 户交流,他们日子听月节日子那块算日子过的确实不好,但是他们都过好了,我就跟他们讲,他怎么给夫妇两个在外边打工,跑车,然后挣的钱尽量都寄回家,里面两个老人两个孩子,年龄最大也有两个孩子,我说你们不容易,你还要有孝心给家里寄钱,人家就一句话回来生气,这就是生气。我们为老百姓的生计就是打算,为老百姓谋生弊是大的,各有关方面还要抓紧协调,已经 33 台政策措施,牵头部门要负责,协同部门要分工,计划地方一定要配套,配套跟上,还有一些我们想不到的地方特色也不一样,你们自己想办法。

总而言之,党中央国务院明确提出的稳住经济大盘,稳住经济基本盘,还要 6 保,特别是前三保,保市场主体,保就业保名称,你们各地去了解具体情况,及时采取措施。在这里我明确说,为了加快政策落地,国务院决定派出 12 个督察组,由相关部门负责同志担任组长。今天我们也请各督察组的组长到会了,赴各地了解督促惹中央治国务院政策的落实,你们自己配套政策的出台和相关落实情况来分析,能不能实现我们的目标,形成专题报告,我们还会根据情况来适度的预调微调。

我这里要讲一下今年二季度的主要经济指标,国家要从国家统计局依法依规实事求是,但今年因为情况特殊,实际上我们每年也是一样,这都是各省集结起来,今年二季度的 GDP 实验扣除退税后的财政收入情况,分省向全社会为主为官一任你要造福一方,如果不能造福一方,我想不是面对群众的能不能无愧执行,对下半年各地稳增长,保市场主体、保就业、保民生的情况,国务院向党中央汇报。现在我就明确咱们也可能党中央国务院组织,所以大家一定要增强紧迫感,增强责任感。







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About 高大伟 David Cowhig

After retirement translated, with wife Jessie, Liao Yiwu's 2019 "Bullets and Opium", and have been studying things 格物致知. Worked 25 years as a US State Department Foreign Service Officer including ten years at US Embassy Beijing and US Consulate General Chengdu and four years as a China Analyst in the Bureau of Intelligence and Research. Before State I translated Japanese and Chinese scientific and technical books and articles into English freelance for six years. Before that I taught English at Tunghai University in Taiwan for three years. And before that I worked two summers on Norwegian farms, milking cows and feeding chickens.
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2 Responses to 2022 Transcript: Li Keqiang at Special Economy Stabilization Conference

  1. Pingback: 2022: Xi Jinping Thought on the Economy Joins Legion of Xi Jinping Thought Books | 高大伟 David Cowhig's Translation Blog

  2. Pingback: Huang Renwei: The U.S.-China Strategic Stalemate Phase and Its Battle Relaxation Periods | 高大伟 David Cowhig's Translation Blog

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