It is always interesting to see yourself as others see you. Professor Zhang’s research focuses on China, ideological matters and then on China and the world. His discussion of the USA is a bit anecdotal, perhaps a Chinese USA specialists would be more measured in their judgements. Interesting for a view of one slice of PRC elite opinion.
- The now-imprisoned former General Liu Yazhou had a different take: 2019 Fmr PLA General Liu Yazhou: What is Really Scary about the United States?
Some others:
- 2021: “History and Experience of the Chinese Communist Party’s Engagement with the United States”: A Lecture by Professor Zhang Baijia
- 2023 Fu Ying: Rational Thinking Needed in PRC-US Relations; Chinese Must Forge Its Own Strength Without Needing to Flaunt It
- 2024: Who is China Rooting for, Trump or Biden?
- 2024: PRC Blogger: West Faces Rough World After 70 Years of Prosperity
- 2023 Liu Zhaojia: Will the U.S. Decline Peacefully?
Background on Zhang Weiwei
Zhang Weiwei (张维为) (December 23, 1957-)[20][21], a native of Shanghai, with ancestry from Nantong City, Jiangsu Province, a mainland Chinese political scientist [22][23][24], an expert in international relations, an internet celebrity[25][26], anda television personality. He is currently the director of the China Research Institute ofFudan University, a special professor, a member of the National Council of High-end Think Tanks, a senior researcher of the Shanghai Spring and Autumn Institute of Development Strategy, and was honored by Guangming Daily as one of the Top Ten Chinese Think Tanks in 2016 [27]. He advocates the construction of Chinese discourse and narrative system and the deconstruction of Western academic discourse [28][29][30].
Politics
According to Zhang Weiwei, the concept of ” political party ” in the Western context does not apply to the CCP. The CCP is a “national political party”, i.e., a political party that follows the Chinese political tradition of representing the interests of a nation as a whole, [70] essentially continuing the tradition of the historically unified Confucian ruling bloc, [71] and, to quote the Confucian Mencius, a “mission-bearing party”, which “is entrusted with a great task by heaven” and “sacrifices itself for the sake of the people”. “a party with a great mission”, quoting the Confucian Mencius, “a party with a great mission”. [72][73]
Through the examples of the Nazi Party in Germany and George W. Bush Jr. in the United States , Zhang Weiwei argues that China’s ” meritocracy ” is superior to Western-style democracy, in which leaders are chosen by “selection + election”. [75][76] Zhang argues that the paradigm of “democracy” versus “dictatorship” is outdated, and that “good governance” versus “bad governance” should be discussed. “The “good governance” means substantive democracy. [77] Thus, Zhang Weiwei promotes the ” Asian values ” of Lee Kuan Yew and Mahathir Mohamad. [78]
Zhang Weiwei argues that the world will tilt toward the East, China, and socialism, a process accelerated by the COVID pandemic. [79]
Economy
Zhang Weiwei promotes the use of purchasing power par ity to assess a country’s economic strength, in which China is already the world’s largest economy. [ Zhang Weiwei has questioned neoliberal economics and its views on the Chinese economy and the world economic order. [81] He has repeatedly put forward the concept of the ” China model “. [82] According to Zhang, the “China model” is not perfect, but has shortcomings and is still in the process of being perfected, but other models cannot compete with it. [83][84] According to Zhang Weiwei, China’s socialist market economy is a ” mixed economy “, a mixture of the market and the government, the private and the state-owned economy, the ” invisible hand ” and the “visible hand”. It is a mixture of market and government, private economy and state-owned economy, “invisible hand” and “visible hand”, which goes beyond the Washington Consensus. [ However, Chinese-American economist Chen Zhiwu, Chinese economist Watson ,Hungarian economist Kornai, and Chinese-American economist Tian Guoqiang have raised objections.
Excerpted from Chinese language Wikipedia article on Zhang Weiwei
“This is China” Episode 225: Will Trump Make a Comeback?
Published by: Wu Hanfei
Publication Date: March 25, 2024
“The genetic defect of the American political system suggests that regardless of whether Trump returns to the White House, the fate of the United States will likely continue to decline.”
“Trump himself is very aware that America is declining, and it may no longer be the world’s number one.”
“If Trump makes a comeback, what impacts will it have on our lives and economy?”
2024 is a presidential election year in the United States, with Trump as a candidate. There is widespread optimism about his chances. So, can Trump smoothly win the presidential election? Today, we look at Trump, both the person and the symbol, to observe American politics. In the March 18 episode of “This is China” on Oriental TV, Professor Zhang Weiwei, Dean of the China Institute at Fudan University, and Professor Huang Renwei, Executive Vice Dean of the Belt and Road & Global Governance Institute at Fudan University, discussed the early stages of the U.S. election.
[Content of Zhang Weiwei’s Speech]
This year, 2024, the United States has entered another election year. Will Donald Trump make a comeback? Over the past few months, multiple American polls have shown Trump leading Biden. He is also ahead in five out of the six “swing states.” In other words, if the election were held today, Trump would most likely win. Of course, there are still more than six months until the U.S. election, and many uncertainties remain. Trump himself is still entangled in lawsuits, but most analyses so far suggest that Trump’s chances of winning are higher than Biden’s.
Looking back over three years, in January 2021, when Biden had just taken office, we predicted the U.S. political situation on the show “This is China.” At that time, I said: Given the high level of support for Trump within the United States and the highly polarized and antagonistic political environment, we cannot rule out the possibility that Biden’s administration could merely be a transitional phase, and four years later, America might return to the “Trump era.” Today, this prospect seems to be emerging. If Trump really makes a comeback, what impact will it have on the world? Here, I share some of my views for reference.
First, we must acknowledge that Trump has indeed recognized many of the severe challenges facing the United States, from rampant crime to widespread drug abuse, from the immigration crisis to decaying infrastructure. He has repeatedly said that America is a “developing country,” not a “developed country,” which often elicited enthusiastic applause from his audience. On February 16 of this year, he again stated, “We are a declining nation, a failing nation!” However, Trump neither possesses the grand vision to drive reform nor the capability to transcend the Deep State. Consequently, he is either powerless or prescribing the wrong remedies. By the end of his first term, the United States had become even more divided and failed. Frankly, due to the genetic defects of the American political system, the fate of the United States will likely continue to decline, whether or not Trump returns to the White House.
Second, the prospect of Trump “returning to power” has already made most of America’s allies tremble. In a campaign rally on February 10, the outspoken Trump once again demanded that NATO allies “pay up,” or he would encourage Russia to attack them. In his speech, Trump recounted a conversation with a foreign president who asked him, “Mr. Trump, if I haven’t paid, but Russia attacks me, will the United States come to our defense?” Trump, in a businessman’s tone, retorted, “You mean you haven’t paid, you haven’t paid what you owe?” The president replied, “Yes.” Trump immediately responded, “If that’s the case, I would not stop Russia. Instead, I would encourage Russia to do whatever it wants, to attack countries that don’t pay.” Of course, by “paying,” Trump meant that NATO allies should raise their defense budgets to 2% of their GDP. Trump has always believed that the United States bears too much of the defense costs for other countries. He even stated that NATO is an “outdated” entity that drains American taxpayers’ money.
The White House reacted fiercely to Trump’s remarks. A White House spokesperson said, “Encouraging enemy regimes to invade our closest allies is shocking and deranged. It jeopardizes U.S. national security, global stability, and the American economy.” NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg also expressed shock, stating, “Any suggestion that allies do not defend each other would undermine all our security, including that of the United States, and would put American and European soldiers at greater risk.” A senior Polish diplomat said, “This is the statement of a serious presidential candidate, so we should take it seriously. It suggests that the logic of America’s presence in NATO might change.” Faced with such an uncertain future, how can America’s NATO allies not be fearful?
Third, the most worried about Trump’s return to power is probably the Zelensky regime in Ukraine. Trump has repeatedly stated that Biden supports the Russia-Ukraine conflict because the Biden family has significant interests in Ukraine, including the Biden son’s “Ukrainegate” scandal. Trump also claimed that if he were in power, he could end the Russia-Ukraine war in 24 hours. Recently, in an interview with former Fox News host Carlson, Russian President Putin revealed that the 2022 Russia-Ukraine negotiations had reached a draft ceasefire agreement, but former British Prime Minister Johnson intervened, stating that the West would support Ukraine to fight to the end, leading to the breakdown of the negotiations.
Today, Trump’s remarks are like a thunderbolt for Europe and Ukraine. Over the past few years, Europe has been closely following the U.S., ultimately sacrificing both its economy and sovereignty and dignity. The result could be a total mess. Ukraine has become a proxy for American interests, paying a tragic price of devastation and ruin. For American capital, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is essentially a business deal. Biden is betting that the U.S. will make a huge profit, while Trump believes the U.S. has suffered a big loss and wants to cut its losses immediately. This once again proves that when a country’s sovereignty is controlled by American interests, its fate is bound to plummet.
Fourth, the most delighted about Trump’s possible return is probably the Netanyahu regime in Israel. Compared to the Biden administration, Trump is much closer to Israel. One reason is the support from many Jewish financial groups behind him. Another is that a significant portion of Trump’s fan base is evangelical Christians who genuinely believe in the prophecy in the Bible: once the Jews establish a state in Israel, Jesus Christ will return, the so-called “Messiah.” Therefore, during Trump’s administration, the U.S. recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and moved the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, exacerbating the Israeli-Palestinian situation. The U.S. also withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and assassinated Iranian General Soleimani. Now, Netanyahu has launched a massacre in Gaza, making the Biden administration, which prides itself on “defending human rights,” feel embarrassed and in a dilemma. If Trump comes to power, it might improve Netanyahu’s diplomatic environment. He could further his actions in Gaza and other places with American support. However, such military actions would inevitably exacerbate the crisis, potentially dragging Israel and the U.S. into a quagmire similar to the Afghan war.
Finally, regarding relations with China, Trump cannot stop mentioning China. Recently, he declared that if he returns to power, he would impose at least a 60% tariff on all Chinese goods. Yet, he also said that tariffs do not count as a new trade war; he wants to “get along” with China, stating that “Sino-American friendship is great.” In fact, most American think tanks believe that the trade war has harmed U.S. interests more, as the increased tariffs are primarily paid by American companies and consumers. However, the U.S. follows a “vote-centric” political model, not China’s “people-centric” model. Trump’s election campaign is to solidify his base, particularly the votes from the “Rust Belt” and “rednecks,” making it easier for him to win. Trump also stated that he would significantly restrict Chinese investments, limiting Chinese capital from owning American energy, technology, telecommunications, farmland, natural resources, healthcare, and other strategic assets to protect America’s so-called “economic security.” I think these statements are both election rhetoric and potential measures he might take if he governs. Ultimately, it will certainly backfire, and this judgment is unlikely to be wrong. As for the highly polarized U.S. domestic politics, Trump vows to investigate the Biden family’s criminal activities if elected. He also called many immigrants “pests polluting American blood.” It can be expected that if Trump comes to power, discrimination and crimes against minorities, especially Chinese and Asian Americans, will significantly increase.
For China, we will calmly respond to changes in the U.S. political situation. We believe that the U.S. has already lost the “trade war,” essentially lost the “technology war,” and will ultimately lose the “financial war.” China has too many countries to invest in worldwide; why take the huge risk of investing in such an unfriendly America? I also want to say that regarding investment or entrepreneurial opportunities, quality of life, and sense of career achievement, there are many areas where China is better than the United States.
On February 4 this year, Fukuyama, the author of the “end of history” theory who once had great confidence in American democracy, wrote an article in Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun expressing concern: on the one hand, if Trump is elected, the U.S. might take the path of “authoritarianism”; on the other hand, if Biden narrowly wins, Trump’s armed and emotionally unstable
supporters might take action. Fukuyama wrote: this year’s “U.S. election is not an ordinary election,” its importance (more precisely, its risk) “may be comparable to the 1860 election that led to the Civil War.”
Three years ago, on “This is China,” when discussing how to deal with Trump’s possible return to the White House, I said: “We must maintain strategic determination and patience. China does not believe in evil. Through struggle, we seek unity, and unity will prevail. Our opponents are at their least confident, declining in power the fastest, and most troubled since World War II. Time is on our side, and history is on our side.” This remains our stance today. If anything has changed, it is our increased confidence in overcoming the challenges posed by the U.S.
Okay, that’s all I have to share today. Next, let’s welcome Professor Huang Renwei, Executive Vice Dean of the Belt and Road & Global Governance Institute at Fudan University, to give his speech. Thank you, everyone!
[Content of Huang Renwei’s Speech]
Professor Zhang has clearly explained the possibility and consequences of Trump’s return to power. I will add a few more points.
First, how likely is Trump’s return to power? Last November, I had dialogues with some high-end think tanks in San Francisco. I mentioned that Trump was likely to return to power, but these were all Democratic elites who said they would do anything to stop him, including possibly killing him. In American politics, any kind of “black” tactic can be used. If Trump is taken down by some abnormal procedure, it would be an “election that could trigger a civil war in the U.S.”
Given that his chances are relatively high, what are the reasons? The main reason is that the elite politics represented by Biden is detached from the vast lower class voters. The lower class voters believe the economy is bad, but the elites say the economy is good; the lower class voters don’t want to throw money into Ukraine, but the elites insist on it, saying weapons must be sent; the lower class voters don’t want Latin American immigrants entering the U.S., but the elites say they should come in. This opposition between elites and lower class voters is everywhere.
You can hardly imagine what the elites are doing in the U.S. Theft under $95 is not a crime. If I take $95 worth of goods from a supermarket, the police cannot arrest me. These are some strange new things from the “white left,” which are strongly opposed in Republican states. If the Democrats come to power, they say our state will also become like this. We find it hard to understand in China, but there it is two extremes: the liberal elite “white left” at one end; the conservative old-fashioned right-wing politics at the other end. This confrontation is irreconcilable. So, no matter what Trump does, whether he breaks the law or talks nonsense, his supporters remain steadfast. He always maintains over 50% support among voters.
Second, there is now a lot of confusion in U.S. domestic and foreign policy, and no one can clearly state the next steps. But Trump can articulate it. He says I can do this and that, listing one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight. Voters think, yes, only he can solve these problems, so he easily gains support. Voters are relatively simple: whoever can explain things clearly will get their support.
What will Trump do if he comes to power? I can summarize it briefly: whatever the Democrats are doing now, he will overturn it. For example, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, he will stop it immediately, saying the war cannot continue. This is terrifying for the West. All of Europe stands with the U.S. in supporting Ukraine. If the U.S. suddenly turns around and stops supporting Ukraine, these EU countries will suffer losses. Trump wants NATO countries to greatly increase their military spending. If they don’t, he won’t protect them. He might put a lot of effort into drawing Putin closer, which will have an impact on China, but Putin won’t be that foolish.
The major issue domestically in the U.S. is immigration. He will firmly shut down the Mexican border. Also, the U.S. debt is too high, the federal budget is in deficit, and there is $39 trillion in debt with only $29 trillion in GDP. The debt is nearly 140% of GDP, so Trump will certainly reduce debt, cut federal spending, and lower the federal deficit. This will mainly hit Democratic officials in the federal government, who will all be swept out. He has mentioned this many times, intending to start a “revolution.” Of course, there will be more unexpected things because his characteristic is to do what you can’t imagine.
Finally, Trump’s return to power will certainly have a significant impact on China. We have managed to stabilize relations with Biden, even though he is anti-China, but he mainly wants to prevent a crisis with China and seeks some cooperation. Stabilizing and stopping the decline is the basic point of the San Francisco talks. But if Trump comes to power, this will no longer count. We will return to pre-2020, with more intense anti-China policies. So we must be prepared. If Trump comes to power, he might play many special anti-China “cards.” But this does not mean Trump has power, nor does it mean the U.S. has power. Trump himself is very clear: the U.S. is in decline, and it may no longer be the world’s number one, so he aims to “make America great again.”
Lastly, we find it interesting why the U.S. has had only these two old men as presidents in recent years. Why is there no new or younger generation of politicians emerging? If a country has no good leaders, what does it indicate? It indicates it is declining from within.
[Roundtable Discussion]
Host: Just now, both speakers mentioned that Trump has a strong base among American voters. The grassroots believe Trump can solve their problems. So, could you analyze the U.S. economy for us? Are the elite’s statistics accurate, or are the grassroots’ feelings accurate?
Zhang Weiwei: In fact, from reliable data or polls, and from personal experience in the U.S., it is easy to make a judgment. For example, the so-called “job creation.” The U.S. government admits that most created jobs are low-income, often temporary jobs now counted in the statistics. For example, a young person in their twenties in a family working three part-time jobs at McDonald’s, Pizza Hut, and a gas station, each giving them a salary, even if it’s one hour a day, counts as three jobs. This is “income-based” data. If you switch to “household-based” data, these part-time jobs create only one job.
We now see that, whether it’s CNN, which is pro-Biden, or Ipsos polls, 70% or more Americans are dissatisfied with the current situation. Anyone who understands a little English can watch American videos, especially young people complaining. Recently, I watched a young person in California complaining that his rent four years ago was $1,200 a month, now it’s $2,100 a month. His car insurance used to be $50 a month, now it’s $150 a month. Undoubtedly, the long-term effects of inflation are now felt, and this year’s inflation rate is still around 8%, which is very high.
Last time I joked about American GDP, many people worried that the gap with China had widened again. American GDP is “as bold as you dare to be,” following their statistical methods. In ten or twenty years, it will continue to lead, which is a political goal: to ensure China does not become the world’s largest economy. So everything can be included. A more reliable method is our Chinese method: looking at whether power generation has increased, whether tourists have increased, how food prices are, and whether there are new economic growth points.
China has new growth points in semiconductors, new energy vehicles, and the Belt and Road Initiative. You don’t see these in the U.S. The main growth in U.S. GDP comes from temporary employment and a large number of financial derivatives. Many people in China discuss China’s debt, pointing out this or that crisis. Our debt is backed by assets, while the U.S. has much larger debt with bubbles behind it. Once these issues are understood, you will remain very calm.
Host: I would like to ask Professor Huang, from the time Trump left the presidency until now when he is running again, have the structural economic problems and pressures on grassroots communities not only not improved but worsened?
Huang Renwei: Yes, a big issue is inflation. Since the 2010 financial crisis, they have been flooding the market with money through quantitative easing. In the three years of the pandemic, they engaged in unlimited borrowing and massive subsidies. By 2022, this could no longer be sustained, with inflation reaching 8% and rising every month. To bring inflation below 5%, interest rates must be raised. Higher interest rates attract global capital to the U.S. People think, if I deposit for five years at 8% or 7% interest, won’t I make money? This creates an illusion of capital returning to the U.S., strengthening the dollar. A strong dollar combined with high interest rates makes the GDP look high when converted. But this has no real impact on actual wealth.
So, one factor is inflation, and another is a strong dollar, creating a false sense of prosperity. Ordinary people don’t care about exchange rates unless they travel abroad. They use dollars at home, and things are becoming unaffordable, with prices rising every week.
Host: Prices are going up, making things unaffordable.
Huang Renwei: Prices rise every week. My American friends say they fear going to the supermarket because prices keep increasing. This
is the main reason for the grassroots complaints.
Host: You also mentioned that Trump’s campaign ads are filled with sorrow and pity, pointing out many issues in America, appealing to the grassroots who feel he has a point. As the campaign progresses, such tactics will likely increase to capture attention.
Zhang Weiwei: Chinese people enjoy watching Trump’s various performances because they find them amusing. During his campaign, Trump said Biden is senile and physically weak, implying that a gust of wind would knock him down. Trump even made a blowing gesture, suggesting Biden would fall. This kind of ridicule is typically against “political correctness,” which restricts free speech in America, but Trump dares to say anything, including inappropriate comments, attracting a lot of attention.
Host: People view Trump as a topic of interest, but if he really returns to the presidency, will it bring more certainty or more uncertainty?
Huang Renwei: It will definitely bring more uncertainty. Trump operates unpredictably, winning by unconventional methods. He will take actions that no one expects, causing chaos, breaking rules, and creating instability. We need to be prepared for this, as he will not only target China but also allies, with his primary direction being to draw closer to Russia.
Host: Carlson is a core opinion leader of the MAGA (“Make America Great Again”) movement, highly respected within the group, comparable to Trump. His interview with Putin comes at a time when accusations of Russian interference in U.S. elections are rampant. How should we view such interactions?
Zhang Weiwei: Carlson asked Putin if he preferred Biden or Trump, and Putin said he preferred Biden because Biden is more predictable. But this is just a polite response. Russia clearly supports anti-Biden forces, both within the U.S. and in other countries like France, Germany, and Italy. Russia sees “liberal globalists” like Biden as a “cancer” in the world, supporting any opposition to them.
Huang Renwei: I watched Carlson’s interview several times. He deeply criticized the falsehoods of the liberal Democrats and revealed the true nature of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, opposing European allies. He argued that the money the U.S. spends on Ukraine is wasted and will never be recovered if Russia defeats Ukraine, which resonates with Americans. The federal debt is enormous, and they are throwing billions at Ukraine, supporting Trump’s call to stop the conflict.
Zhang Weiwei: It’s clear who benefits from this interview. Putin said he does not interfere, but by welcoming a pro-Trump influencer like Carlson, Putin knows it will have a huge impact.
[Q&A Session]
Audience: Hello, host and professors. My question is: In January this year, the Democratic Progressive Party won the leadership election in Taiwan again. In this context, if Trump is elected as the U.S. president, will it further worsen the situation in Taiwan? Thank you.
Zhang Weiwei: Regarding cross-strait relations, it’s clear that whether the Democratic Progressive Party or another party is in power, the basic division is “explicit independence” versus “implicit independence.” So, I have always said that facing the challenge of “explicit independence” is better than being deceived by “implicit independence.”
The U.S. factor is one consideration, but the U.S.’s ability to intervene in the Taiwan Strait today is limited. It can cause trouble, but we have ways to deal with it. Recently, our two fishermen were killed in a collision with a Taiwanese coast guard vessel, and now our coast guard has started regular patrols, which is very good for shaping a perception of Chinese sovereignty. This incident was also highly covered by Taiwanese media. Our coast guard boarded a Taiwanese yacht and checked the captain’s documents, demonstrating our exercise of Chinese sovereignty and administrative jurisdiction. These actions should continue and expand. If Taiwan continues to engage with the U.S. in “Taiwan independence,” we can immediately take various punitive measures.
Huang Renwei: Trump might make moves to provoke us, like sending congratulatory messages to Lai Ching-te or attending the inauguration ceremony. But he is clear that he will not fight for Taiwan independence. He has stated several times that if Taiwan wants independence, that’s their business. If the mainland attacks, he will not get involved. He both stimulates and withholds support, unlike Biden, who secretly supports “Taiwan independence” while avoiding open provocation. So, on the Taiwan issue, Trump is openly against the one-China principle, while Biden secretly supports Taiwan.
Audience: Hello, professors and host. I observe that among U.S. presidents, Trump has a unique “fan” appeal. Despite ridicule, he has strong, unwavering support. Why does he have this effect? Thank you.
Zhang Weiwei: Trump “breaks boundaries,” with a fan base of about 80 million, according to his previous Twitter following, which has only grown. The basic logic is that ordinary Americans have many grievances, and the elites are out of touch. Trump appears grounded and offers straightforward solutions, even if they are unrealistic.
In his first campaign, Trump said he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and still get elected. His base hates the “white left” elites, believing they are ruining America and worsening middle-class lives. Trump’s supporters see him as someone who speaks plainly and might help, even if he accomplishes little.
Huang Renwei: Trump is a politician for the network age, rising through platforms like Facebook. He engages directly with netizens, constantly using new media, creating a style that resonates with people tired of elite politics.
Host: Two incompatible linguistic systems.
Huang Renwei: Yes, Trump’s governance and interactions are entirely new, appealing to ordinary people. He uses unconventional methods, creating a unique political style.
Audience: Hello, professors and host. If Trump makes a comeback, how will it affect our lives and economy? Thank you.
Zhang Weiwei: The U.S. has long been undermining China’s economy through “financial warfare,” aiming to attract Chinese capital to the U.S. Our party’s leadership has prevented major financial issues.
Huang Renwei: Exchange rates are a key aspect of financial warfare, with the U.S. using them to depress China’s economic output and suggest a decline. Higher U.S. interest rates attract global capital, affecting China’s stock market and causing capital outflows. This is financial warfare, including punishing specific companies and confiscating funds, ultimately targeting the renminbi to maintain the dollar’s global dominance. If the dollar’s share decreases and the renminbi’s share increases, it signifies a real power shift. The key is whether the renminbi can withstand the pressure.
Zhang Weiwei: Proactively engaging in financial warfare is essential. For example, we can demand payments in renminbi for certain products only China can produce. We should maintain a clear stance against financialization, using finance to serve the real economy.
Host: So, we are preparing for financial warfare, which involves restructuring our financial system and market.
Zhang Weiwei: Our stance as a high-end think tank is clear: the economy must serve the real economy, not financialization. This principle must not change.
《这就是中国》第225期：特朗普卷土重来？
发布人: 邬含菲 发布时间:2024-03-25
“美国政治制度基因缺陷使然，无论特朗普是否重返白宫，美国国运恐怕将继续下滑。”
“特朗普自己非常清楚，美国在衰落，美国很可能不是世界第一了。”
“如果特朗普卷土重来，对于我们在生活还有经济上会产生哪些影响？”
2024年是美国总统大选年，特朗普作为参选者，外界也在普遍看好他，那么特朗普到底能不能顺利地拿下美国总统大选？今天我们穿越卷土重来的特朗普这个人物、这个符号，来观察美国政治。在东方卫视3月18日播出的《这就是中国》节目中，复旦大学中国研究院院长张维为教授和复旦大学“一带一路”及全球治理研究院常务副院长黄仁伟教授，围绕美国大选前期展开讨论。
【张维为演讲内容】
今年，2024年，美国又进入了大选年，唐纳德·特朗普是否会卷土重来？过去几个月，美国多个民调都表明，特朗普领先拜登，他在美国的六个“摇摆州”中的五个州也领先。换言之，如果今天就举行选举的话，大概率是特朗普胜出。当然，现在离美国大选还有半年多的时间，仍有许多不确定的因素，特朗普本身还官司缠身，但迄今为止多数分析都认为特朗普获胜的概率还是高于拜登。
回望三年多前，也就是2021年1月，拜登刚刚上台之际，我们在《这就是中国》节目中对美国政局做了一个预测，当时我是这样说的：鉴于美国国内支持特朗普的比例仍然居高不下，鉴于美国国内高度对立的极化的政治，我们不能排除一种可能性，就是拜登的执政很可能只是一个过渡阶段，四年后的美国可能还会回到“特朗普时代”。今天看来，这种前景似乎正在浮现。如果特朗普真的卷土重来，会给世界带来什么冲击？这里我与大家分享一些自己的看法，仅供参考。
首先，我们要承认特朗普确实认识到了美国面临的许多严峻挑战，从犯罪猖獗到吸毒泛滥，从移民危机到基础设施衰败等等，他多次讲美国是一个“发展中国家”，不是“发达国家”，下面他的听众热烈鼓掌。今年2月16日，他再次发文称“我们是一个衰落的国家，一个失败的国家！” 然而，特朗普既没有推动改革的雄才大略，更没有超越美国Deep State（深层国家）的能力，所以他要么是无能为力，要么是开错药方。他第一个任期结束后的美国是一个更加分裂的美国、更加失败的美国。坦率地讲，美国政治制度基因缺陷使然，无论特朗普是否重返白宫，美国国运恐怕将继续下滑。
第二，特朗普“重新上台”的前景，已经使美国的多数盟友不寒而栗。在2月10日的一次竞选集会上，口无遮拦的特朗普再次要求北约盟友“付费”，否则他会鼓励俄罗斯对他们发动攻击。特朗普在演讲中转述了一位外国总统和他的对话，这位总统问特朗普说：“特朗普先生，假如我没有付钱，但是俄罗斯攻击我，美国会站出来保卫我们吗？” 特朗普以商人的口吻反问他：“你是说没付钱，没缴该缴的钱？”对方说：“是的。”特朗普立即表示：“如果是这种情况的话，我不会阻止俄罗斯，相反我要鼓励俄罗斯做它想做的任何事情，攻击不缴费的国家。”当然，特朗普这里的“缴费”指的是要北约盟国把自己的国防预算都提高到自己GDP的2%。特朗普一直认为美国过度承担了其它国家的国防开支，他甚至表示过北约是“落伍于这个时代”的产物，吸干了美国纳税人的钱。
对于特朗普的这番表态，白宫反应激烈，白宫发言人是这样说的：“鼓励敌方政权入侵我们最亲密的盟友，是令人震惊的，和精神错乱的，它还会危及美国的国家安全、全球的稳定和美国的经济。”北约秘书长斯托尔滕贝格也非常震惊地说：“盟国不互相防御的任何建议，都会破坏我们的所有的安全，包括美国的安全，并使美国和欧洲士兵面临更大的风险。”波兰的一位资深外交官表示：“这是一位严肃的总统候选人的话，所以我们应该认真对待，这意味着美国在北约存在的逻辑方面可能发生了变化。”美国的北约盟国面对如此不确定的未来，能不胆战心惊吗？
第三，更担心特朗普上台的估计是乌克兰的泽连斯基政权。特朗普本人曾多次表示，拜登之所以支持俄乌冲突，是因为拜登家族在乌克兰有重大的利益，包括拜登儿子的“通乌门”等等。特朗普也表示过，如果他上台，24小时就可以结束俄乌战争。那么最近在接受美国福克斯新闻前主持人卡尔森采访的时候，俄罗斯总统普京透露，俄乌2022年谈判已经就停火协议形成了一个草案，但英国前首相约翰逊出来干预，表示西方将支持乌克兰血战到底，结果俄乌谈判就破裂了。
今天特朗普的这番话，对欧洲和乌克兰如同惊雷，欧洲过去几年亦步亦趋地跟着美国，最终可能是赔了夫人又折兵，既牺牲了自己的经济，又牺牲了主权和尊严，结果可能是一地鸡毛。乌克兰成了美国利益的代理人，付出了哀鸿遍野、国破家亡的惨痛代价。对美国资本力量来说，俄乌冲突本质上就是一笔生意，拜登赌美国将大赚，而特朗普则认为美国吃了大亏，要立即止损。这再一次证明一旦一个国家的主权被美国利益代理人掌握的话，国家的命运必将一落千丈。
第四，对特朗普可能上台感到最高兴的估计是以色列的内塔尼亚胡政权。与拜登政府相比，特朗普对以色列要亲近得多。一是因为他的背后有不少犹太财团的支持。二是特朗普的粉丝中有很大一部分是基督教的福音派，他们真的相信《圣经》里的预言：一旦犹太人在以色列建国，那么耶稣基督就会降临，也就是所谓“弥赛亚”。所以特朗普执政期间，美国率先承认耶路撒冷为以色列首都，并把美国大使馆迁到耶路撒冷，这一行径激化了巴以局势。美国还退出了伊朗核协议，杀害了伊朗的苏莱曼尼将军。现在内塔尼亚胡在加沙开了杀戒，使一向以“捍卫人权”自居的拜登政府也感到难堪，有点进退维谷。如果特朗普上台的话，可能会改善内塔尼亚胡的外交环境，估计他会借助美国力量进一步进行他在加沙等地的行动，然而这样的军事行动必将进一步加剧危机的外溢，使以色列和美国最终陷入可能是类似阿富汗战争那样的泥潭。
最后，涉及与中国的关系，特朗普开口闭口都绕不开中国。不久前，他宣称上台后会对所有中国商品征收至少60%的关税，但同时他又说征税不算是新的贸易战，他想和中国“和睦相处”“中美友好很棒”。其实，美国多数智库都认为美国贸易战更多是损害了美国的利益，因为增加的关税绝大部分都是美国公司和美国消费者支付的。但美国是以“选票为中心”的政治模式，而不是中国以“人民为中心”的政治模式，特朗普的选举造势是为了稳住他的基本盘，也就是“铁锈带”“红脖子”的选票，这将使他更容易胜选。特朗普还表示要大规模地限制中国投资，限制中国资本持有美国能源、技术、电信、农田、自然资源、医疗和其它战略资产，以保护美国的所谓“经济安全”。我想这些言论既是为了竞选造势，也是他主政之后可能采取的措施，当然这一切最终肯定是搬起石头砸自己的脚，这个判断不会错的。至于高度极化的美国国内政治，特朗普发誓如果他当选的话，他要追究拜登一家子的犯罪活动。他还把许多移民称为“污染了美国血统的害虫”。可以预计如果特朗普上台的话，美国国内针对少数族裔，特别是华人和亚裔的歧视和犯罪会显著增加。
对于中国来说，我们将从容应对美国政局的变化，兵来将挡，水来土掩。我们认为美国已经输掉了“贸易战”，基本输掉了“科技战”，最终也将输掉“金融战”。在世界范围内，中国可以投资的国家太多了，为什么一定要冒着巨大的风险去如此不友好的美国投资呢？我还想说，无论是投资或创业的机会，生活的品质，还是事业的成就感，中国比美国好的地方实在是太多了。
今年2月4日，曾对美式民主充满信心的“历史终结论”作者福山，在日本《读卖新闻》撰文忧心忡忡地表示：一方面，如果特朗普当选，美国可能走上“独裁主义”道路；另一方面，如果拜登险胜，那么“手握武器、情绪失控”的特朗普支持者可能会采取行动。福山是这样写的：今年的“美国大选不是一场普通的选举”，其重要性（更确切地说，其风险性）“可能比肩1860年林肯当选最终引发南北战争的那场选举”。
三年前，在《这就是中国》节目中，就如何应对特朗普可能重返白宫，当时我这样说的：“我们务必保持战略定力和战略耐心。中国不信邪，以斗争求团结，则团结存。我们的对手正处于二战以来最不自信的时候、实力衰落得最快的时候、心最乱的时候。时间在我们一边，历史在我们一边。”这还是我们今天的立场，如果说有什么变化，那就是我们战胜美国挑战的信心更足了。
好，我今天就和大家分享这些。下面我们请复旦大学“一带一路”及全球治理研究院常务副院长黄仁伟教授给大家演讲。谢谢大家！
【黄仁伟演讲内容】
刚才张教授已经把特朗普上台的可能性以及后果讲得很清楚，我再补充几点。
第一点，特朗普上台的可能性究竟有多大？我去年11月份在旧金山和美国一些高端智库对话，其中我谈到特朗普很可能上台，但是他们这批全是民主党的精英，说我们要不惜一切手段阻止他上台，可能包括要他的命，美国政治到最后什么“黑”都能使得出来。如果特朗普被其它不正常的程序搞掉了，那就是“引起美国内战的选举”。
既然说他的可能性比较大，理由是什么？最主要的就是拜登代表的建制派的精英政治脱离了美国的广大的下层选民。下层选民认为现在经济不好，但是精英说现在经济很好；下层选民不愿意把钱扔到乌克兰去，精英们说一定要扔过去，武器一定要送过去；下层选民说不让这些外国拉丁人到美国来，精英说要来，要放开，让他们来。所以精英和下层选民这种对立无处不在。
你甚至不能想象精英在美国搞些什么，95美元以下的盗窃不算犯罪，我到超市里去拿95美元的东西，警察不能抓我。这都是“白左”的一些奇怪的新东西，在那些共和党的州极力反对，如果民主党上台，我们的州也要变成这样。我们在中国国内很难体会，但是那里就是两极，民主党的精英、“白左”自由主义在一个极端；保守的、老牌的美国右翼政治在另一个极端，这个对抗势不两立。所以特朗普不管他做什么，犯法也好、胡说八道也好，他的支持者坚决不动摇，他始终保持着一半以上选民的支持率。
第二点，就是现在美国的内外政策出现了很多混乱，没有人能够讲得清楚下一步该怎么样，那么特朗普都能讲清楚，他说我可以做这做那，一二三四五六七八，一条一条给你讲出来；选民一想对呀，这些毛病只有他能解决，所以他就容易得到支持。选民是比较简单的，谁能把话说清楚，谁就可以得到支持。
特朗普上台会干什么呢？我可以简单地归纳为这么一句话，民主党现在干什么，我就把他反掉。比如说俄乌冲突，我上台就要把它停掉，战争不能再进行。这对西方来说太可怕了，整个欧洲都站在美国这边支持乌克兰，突然美国自己掉头，不支持乌克兰了，这些欧盟国家都会吃哑巴亏。特朗普要北约国家大量地提高军费，不提高军费，以后就不保护你。这一次他可能会用很大的力气来拉拢普京，当然对中国会有影响，但普京也不会那么傻。
美国国内问题比较大的就是移民，要坚决把墨西哥边境“关死”。还有，现在美国债务太厉害，联邦财政没有钱，高度赤字，39万亿债务，只有29万亿GDP，债务是GDP的近140%，所以特朗普一定要削减债务，削减联邦开支，把联邦的赤字降下去。这样一来，打击最大的是民主党在联邦政府中的官员全部清扫出去。他已经说了好多遍这个事，要进行一场“革命”。当然还会有更多出人意料的事，他的特点就是做你想不到的事。
最后，特朗普上台对中国的影响肯定是大的，我们好不容易把拜登这一块搞得比较稳定了，虽然拜登也反华，但他主要防止中国和美国危机升级，寻找一点合作，企稳止跌，这是旧金山会谈的基本点。但如果特朗普上台，这一套就不算数了，重新回到2020年以前，更加激烈地反华，所以我们要有准备，特朗普一上来，可能出很多特殊的反华“牌”。但这并不代表特朗普有力量，更不代表美国有力量，特朗普自己非常清楚，美国在衰落，美国很可能不是世界第一了，所以他的意思就是“让美国再次伟大”。
最后，我们觉得很有意思，为什么美国最近几年总是这两个老头总统？怎么没有新的人呢？怎么没有年轻一代政治家出现呢？一个国家如果没有好的领导人了，这说明什么？说明它从骨子里头衰落了。
【圆桌讨论】
主持人：刚才两位在演讲时都特别说到，特朗普在美国国内的选民当中有基本盘，底层民众还是觉得特朗普可以帮他们解决他们生活当中的困境，所以我想请两位给我们剖析一下美国经济，到底是精英说的那些数字是对的，还是美国基层老百姓的感受是对的？
张维为：实际上美国经济我觉得无论是从靠谱的数据或者民调来看，还是自己去美国实地感受来看，都很容易做出判断。比方说所谓“创造就业”，美国官方都承认，主要创造的是低收入的就业，往往都是零工，现在都算在里边。你看美国的统计数据，比方说一个家里，一个二十多岁年轻人，打了三份零工，麦当劳、必胜客，加油站，三个单位都给了工资，哪怕一天一个小时，这算三份工作，这是“收入口径”的数据，如果你换成“家庭口径”的数据，这样的打工只创造了一份就业。
我们现在看到，无论是CNN，这是亲拜登的民调，还是Ipsos（益普索）民调，70%、甚至更多的美国人对现状很不满意。你只要稍微懂点英文，看看美国的视频，年轻人发的，我最近刚看了一个加州年轻人的抱怨，他说我的房租四年前是1200美元一个月，现在是2100美元一个月，我的车保险一个月原来50美元，现在150美元。毫无疑问，长期通货膨胀的恶果现在可以感受出来，今年还是8%左右，这是非常高的。
上次我调侃了美国的GDP，很多人担心，怎么我们跟它又拉大了，美国又领先了。美国GDP是“人有多大胆，地有多高产”，照它的统计方法，十年、二十年之内它将继续领先，这是个政治目标，一定不能让中国变成世界最大的经济体，就这么简单，所以什么东西都可以放进去。比较靠谱的方法还是我们中国人的方法，我们看你发电量有没有增加、游客有没有增加、食品价格如何等等，还有就是有没有新的经济增长点。
中国无论是半导体、新能源汽车、“一带一路”等都是新的增长点，美国你看不到。美国GDP中增长的主要是什么东西，一是临时工就业，一是大量的金融衍生品，国内很多人在谈中国的债务，这个危机、那个危机，我们的债务背后都是资产。美国债务比中国大很多，债务背后全是金融泡沫，把这些问题看清楚了，你就会非常淡定。
主持人：我想问一下黄教授，从特朗普离开总统的这个位置，到现在他重新来参选，这三四年的时间里面，是不是整个经济上的结构性问题，这些底层的群众受到的压力，不仅没有减轻，反而更严重了？
黄仁伟：对，一个大问题就是通货膨胀，从2010年金融危机开始，就一直在放水，量化宽松，到了疫情这三年无限制举债、大量补贴，所以到了2022年已经支持不下去了，通货膨胀到了8%，每个月都在涨。如果要把通胀降到5%以下，就只能提高利率；利率一提高，就引发世界资金往美国流，我就存进去，我存它五年，都是8%、7%的利率，那我不赚了吗？这样一来，就造成一个假象，资金回流美国，美元坚挺了，美元坚挺加上高利率，它的GDP折算起来就高了。美元一坚挺，它跟人民币（汇率）从1:6变成1:7，这对实际财富是没有意义的，但虚假的GDP涨了。
所以一个是通胀，一个是美元坚挺，这两个数字造成了美国繁荣的假象。老百姓他不管，你汇率再高，不出国的话没有用，他在家里就是用家里收入的美元买东西。
主持人：对，东西买不起了，物价越来越贵。
黄仁伟：东西价格每周都涨，我的一些美国朋友都在说，我不敢去超市，每天都害怕，怎么价格又涨了？就是这样，这是所谓基本盘抱怨的基本原因。
主持人：您刚才也说到特朗普的竞选广告充满了悲伤，充满了悲悯，说我们是一个衰落的国家，指出美国的许许多多问题，泛基本盘的人都会觉得，他讲得也有点道理，所以接下来在选战中，包括这样的手段会越来越多，抓大家注意力。
张维为：实际上中国人蛮喜欢看特朗普的各种各样表演，他有很多乐子。他竞选演讲时说拜登不行了，老糊涂了，而且身体不行了，风一吹就要倒，关键他做了个吹气的动作，然后说拜登就要倒掉，他就是这样地来挖苦人家。
关于美国这个国家，我们过去多次讲过，实际上没有多少言论自由，老百姓被各种各样“政治正确”限制太多了，突然来了个满嘴政治不正确的特朗普，什么话都敢讲，下流话、儿童不宜的话他都敢讲，结果引来很多乐子。他调侃拜登的这种说法，是对老人不尊重，按照“政治正确”你是不能这样说的，这伤害人家的人格，但他就敢这样，而且大庭广众地吹一口气，这就是特朗普。
主持人：大家看特朗普这个人，他确实会带来很多的话题，但如果他真的重新回到美国总统这个位置上，带来的到底是确定性更大，还是更大的不确定性？
黄仁伟：那肯定是更大的不确定性。特朗普做生意就是以不确定取胜，他要打击这个对手，他是不择手段的。
主持人：不按常理出牌。
黄仁伟：出怪牌，出不能出的牌。所以我可以想象他上台后，无论是盟国，还是像我们这样的“对手”，他都会出很多很多不按常理出的牌。世界会非常乱，因为美国带头破坏规矩。所以美国讲的“以规则为基础的秩序”（The order based on the rule），这句话完全成了一句废话。我们确实要有这个准备，他当然是打击中国，同时也打击盟国，可能唯一的就是拉拢俄罗斯，基本上主要是这些方向。
主持人：卡尔森是美国MAGA（“让美国再次伟大”）运动的一个核心意见领袖，他在整个MAGA群体中受到的拥戴率非常高，不输特朗普。像这样的一个人，他去采访普京，以前可能因为美国党内斗争的时候，有一方都会指责，说俄罗斯介入美国大选，你看普京这次大大方方地，在这个时候卡尔森要去采访他，这样的互动怎么来看？
张维为：这次卡尔森问普京：你喜欢拜登还是喜欢特朗普，他说我更喜欢拜登，拜登更加可预测等等，当然这是面子上的话，因为长期以来美国就怀疑俄罗斯在暗中支持特朗普。
但我们可以暂时把美国放一边，我们看看其它国家，包括法国、德国、意大利等，俄罗斯支持他们国内的不少政治力量，因为俄罗斯普京非常明确地认为像拜登这样的“自由主义者”、“全球主义者”是世界的“毒瘤”，所以不管你是极右的，还是其它什么势力，只要你是反对拜登这股力量，俄罗斯都支持，这是俄罗斯的基本态度。
黄仁伟：卡尔森的访谈我看了好几遍，他讲了关于美国现状的问题，讲得很深刻，把民主党“白左”的虚假全揭露了，而且揭露了俄乌冲突是怎么回事，他也完全跟欧洲的那些盟国唱反调。他就说现在美国人为乌克兰拿出去的钱全是白搭的，最后这些钱被俄罗斯打败以后一分收不回来。这个讲到美国人心里去了，国家联邦债务这么大，还要几百亿、几百亿地扔到乌克兰，所以等于配合了特朗普讲停止俄乌冲突。
张维为：实际上这个采访有利于谁，一看就看得出来了。普京说我不干预，但卡尔森这么一个亲特朗普的超级“网红”，普京高兴地接受他的采访，你可以想象这能产生巨大影响。
【问答环节】
观众：主持人好，两位老师好。我的问题是，在今年1月，台湾地区领导人选举中民进党再次获胜，在这样的背景下，如果特朗普当选美国总统的话，是否会导致台湾局势的进一步恶化呢？谢谢。
张维为：对两岸关系上，我们现在也看得非常清楚了，无论是民进党还是其他党上台执政，基本的分歧，一个是“明独”、一个是“暗独”，所以我一直讲这个观点，与其让“暗独”来忽悠你，不如干脆直面“明独”的挑战。
美国因素是一个因素，但我们可以实事求是看它，美国今天干预台海的能力，实际上是有限的。它可以制造很多麻烦，但我们有办法对付。我特别想到不久前发生的悲剧，我们两个渔民被台湾海巡船只碰撞，导致两位大陆渔民死亡，现在我们的海警开始了常规化地巡查，这个非常好，因为它有利于塑造一个中国的认知。这个事件也是台湾媒体也高度关注的事件，这次我们的海警登上了一艘台湾游艇，核查对方船长的证件，这样的做法就显示我们行使中国主权和行政管辖权，这些做法一定要坚持下去并进一步扩大范围。现在你只要搞“台独”包括你跟美国进一步勾结，那对不起，我们就可以立即采取各种措施加以惩罚。
黄仁伟：特朗普他会做一些动作刺激我们，比如说现在赖清德上台，他发个贺信或者到就职演说典礼上去表现一下，都有可能。或者他上台以后，赖清德给他发贺信，他再回信，这种形式可能都会有，那时候他已经作为美国总统，用官方身份跟赖清德来往，这绝对是破例的。
但另一方面他又是非常明确的，不为台湾打仗，“台独”你要搞，是你的事，大陆打你，我不参加这个战争，他已经说了几遍了。所以他在台湾问题上也刺激我们，但是他又留一手，这是他和拜登不一样的地方，拜登表面上不搞官方的刺激中国的事，暗地里给军火、派军人，甚至未来如果有冲突的话，他也可能参与。所以明的是特朗普更反一个中国原则，暗的是拜登更坚定地支持“台独”。
观众：两位教授，主持人好。我观察到在美国的历届总统中，特朗普尤其具有一种 “吸粉”能力，我们在媒体上会经常看到有很多嘲讽他的，但是我们又能看到他有很强大无条件支持他的粉丝，为什么在他身上会有这种效应？谢谢。
张维为：他就是“破圈”，他的粉丝群非常广，稳定在八千万左右，当时推特时就是这样的，现在只会增加，不会减少。我想一个基本的道理就是美国普通老百姓确实有很多很多的想说的话，美国的精英太不接地气，而他显得很接地气，就是前面黄老师说的，什么问题他都可以提出解决方法，一二三四，尽管这些方法可能是胡诌。
他第一次竞选时就说过，纽约最大的大街第五大道，他说我在第五大道拿枪杀死一个人，我照样可以当选总统。这种话他都敢讲，他的基本盘是憎恨美国这帮“白左”精英，让他们搞下去，美国要完蛋了，美国中下层的生活永远不会改善了；因为你去看宏观统计数字，扣除通货膨胀，今天美国多数人的收入，特别是所谓中产阶级偏下的，四十来年没有增长。这样的情况导致大量的怨愤，然后就觉得选出特朗普这么一个讲人话的人，不管怎么样，他也许可以帮助解决问题，实际上他什么也解决不了，他的四年没解决什么问题。
黄仁伟：特朗普是一个网络时代的政治家，他起家就是从Facebook开始，完全靠网上的支持率起来的，他非常会用新媒体，完全是自己和网民一对一地互相对话。
张维为：一天要发很多推特。
黄仁伟：大家都喜欢这种风格，不遮遮盖盖，讲实话，因为这个自由派、建制派，他们训练到那个水平了，要他反过来讲那些下三滥的话是不会讲的。
主持人：是两套语言体系，没法兼容。
黄仁伟：对，特朗普就是这样的，他治国、同天下打交道的方式，又是完全新的，所以老百姓看了痛快。他握手，要握到你痛为止，这些做法特朗普完全是独创的。
观众：两位老师好，主持人好，我想请问一下，如果特朗普卷土重来的话，对于我们在生活上还有经济上会产生哪些影响？谢谢。
张维为：从我们研究政治，我第一时间就感觉唱衰中国经济，就是美国一直在唱衰，背后就是“金融战”，就是要把中国资本吸引到美国去，就是这么简单的一个道理，真的，亏得有党的领导，否则我们的金融要出大问题。
黄仁伟：汇率是目前“金融战”的一个主要方面，用金融汇率打压中国的经济总量，打压了以后，得出一个结论，“中国经济到顶了”“中国经济开始走下坡了”，这样的话很多人相信。美国利率提高以后，资金向美国流动，中国的很多有几亿财富的小老板，也跟着往外逃跑，这就是“金融战”，影响到股市，资金外流，股市当然往下走。从汇率开始打起，打到资金流向，打到股市的资金外逃，这是一整套“金融战”。当然，还有具体的、微观的，对哪些企业进行惩罚，惩罚它们在美国的资金没收，这是小“金融战”。
所以，加在一起，这也是刚刚开始，“金融战”最终是打人民币，因为人民币国际化的结果，就是美元在世界市场上的份额减少，就是“去美元化”；反过来如果人民币国际化下降，美元的国际地位不会受到影响，这是美国霸权的核心问题。如果美元真的在世界份额中变少，人民币越来越多，这才是真正的权力转移。现在还没打到这一步，但是会有这一天，到时候就看人民币能不能挺住。
张维为：所以跟美国打“金融战”，除了预防之外我们要主动。我举个最简单的例子，某些美国最需要的产品，我们可以提出只能用人民币购买，有很多制造业产品只有中国一家能够生产，对不对？我们可以提出这样的要求。
黄仁伟：打“金融战”还有一个很重要的是我们内部金融结构的整顿。
张维为：对。
黄仁伟：包括股市的各种问题的清理，这个是打“金融战”的准备工作。
主持人：所以大家也可以感受一下很多准备工作都在做。
张维为：我们中国研究院作为国家高端智库，立场非常明确，经济绝不能金融化的，经济一定要利用金融为实体经济服务，这个原则不能变。
高大伟 David Cowhig's Translation Blog 