2022: China Protests and Retribution

This poem which appeared at Tsinghua University is circulating online in China. Many dots are added around the Chinese characters, apparently to frustrate the character recognition software that online censors used to scrub the Chinese networks clean. I found the two items below on on the Twitter feed at 冷山时评 @lengshanshipin

Xi Jinping Step Down!

Shared : this notice appeared at Tsinghua University

Step down, the people have had enough of your performance,
No matter how beautiful your costume,
You can’t be the Qin Shihuang or Han Wudi.

Step down, the Constitution and the Party Charter can’t save you,
Even if you carve your resolve into solid rock,
The people would still abandon you.

Step down. You should at one good decision
Know that no amount of self-confidence
Can make up for your IQ.

Step down, don’t hold onto on your position,
The people have put up with you for ten years
Power is a sex drug, you have drunk
Too much of it for far too long.

Step down, don’t wait until the people
See to it that you end up like Ceausescu,
You must know this.

Step down, take your over-rated singer,
Go to some quiet place to live in peace,
That’d be best for the people,
Save yourself one last bit of face.

Step down, don’t hesitate
It’s for your own good!

This report I also found at 冷山时评 @lengshanshipin


The Party Starts to Settle Scores

Yesterday I met with another friend who was arrested on the 27th, she was taken to the Tianlin New Village Police Station. Many young men and women were beaten there. One young woman was given a concussion, one was kicked in the stomach, and some were slapped. One young man was not released after 24 hours. After expressing his displeasure, he was taken by the police to a “dark room” where they heard him screaming. When they entered, they were strip-searched. When they were released, their cell phones were seized for an additional three days. While inside, they were told not to sleep, not to talk (they were scolded even when they sat down to sleep), given a few slices of bread when they were hungry, and threatened with other words.

In terms of information collection, the female officers at the police station in Kangjian Xincun collected photos, fingerprints, and irises. They also collected voices. They screamed in their faces. When they entered, they were asked to strip and examined, and when they were released, their cell phones were held for an additional three days. While inside, they were told not to sleep and not to talk. (They were scolded even if they sat down to sleep) They were given a few slices of bread when they were hungry. In addition they were verbally threatened. In terms of information collection, the Kangjian New Village police station collected photos, fingerprints, and iris photos. They also collected voices.

In addition to these, they also collected voices (by repeatedly reading out articles), probably to match the people who shouted the slogans. It is safe to assume that none of the above police actions were legally permitted for questioning/summons. I can provide additional evidence and vouch for this information if anyone wishes to verify and disseminate it.

昨天和另一个27号被逮捕的朋 友见面,她被带去的是田林新 村派出所。那边好几个女生/男 生都被殴打,其中一个女生被 打出了脑震荡,一个被踢了肚 子,还有的是被扇了耳光。有 一个男生关了24小时后还没有 被释放,他表达不满后被警察 拉去了“小黑屋”,她们听到里 面传来他的尖叫。她们进去之 后被要求脱光检查,放出来后 手机被额外扣押了三天。在里 面的期间,被要求不能睡觉、 不能说话(哪怕坐着睡觉也会 被呵斥),饿到不行的时候才 给了几片面包,除此以外还有 其他语言威胁。

采集信息方 面,我在的康健新村派出所采 集的包括照片,指纹,虹膜, 她们除了这些还采集了声音面传来他的尖叫。她们进去之 后被要求脱光检查,放出来后 手机被额外扣押了三天。在里 面的期间,被要求不能睡觉、 不能说话(哪怕坐着睡觉也会 被呵斥),饿到不行的时候才 给了几片面包,除此以外还有 其他语言威胁。采集信息方 面,我在的康健新村派出所采 集的包括照片,指纹,虹膜, 她们除了这些还采集了声音

(通过反复朗读文章的方 式),可能是用来比对喊口号 的人。可以肯定的是以上所有 警察的行为都不在问询/传唤的 允许范围内,以上信息如果有 人希望核实和扩散,我可以提 供更多证据并为此担保。

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2012: Jiang Zemin When Soviet Union Collapsed

When the Soviet Union Collapsed: the Choice of Zhongnanhai

苏联解体时刻:中南海的抉择

来源:《思想理论动态参阅·文史参阅》2012年第45期 2021-03-01

作者:田毅,张恒,王晓

Keywords: 

Source:《Thought and Theory Reference – Literature and History Reference》No.45, 2012

by Author: Yi Tian, Heng Zhang, Xiao Wang

苏联解体时刻:中南海的抉择

In April 1990, researcher Yu Shen made a special trip to the Soviet Union to find out what “humane and democratic socialism” 人道的、民主的社会主义” meant. When he returned, he wrote a 10,000-word report, summarizing the shortcomings of the Soviet model in three sentences: rigid and dogmatic ideology and theory; solidified and opportunistic economic management; and lack of democracy in political life.

A telephone rang in an office on the fourth floor of the Foreign Ministry building on Chaoyangmennei Street in Beijing. Li Jingxian, deputy director of the Soviet-European Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, picked up the phone, the call coming from the Chinese Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary to the Soviet Union, Wang Arthritis, who was far away in Moscow. “The Soviet Central Television anticipates an important news broadcast tonight at seven o’clock!” and ” I had expected that Gorbachev would have to step down sooner or later, but not so soon.” In the afternoon of December 25, 1991, Li Jingxian put down the phone and immediately reported to Foreign Minister Qian Qichen and other leaders.

  At 00:00 Beijing time on the 26th, seven or eight people from the Soviet Union Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs gathered in front of a 20-inch television set. On the screen Gorbachev began his famous seven-minute “farewell speech”, and the “king”, who no longer had even an inch of the country, calmly announced that he was stepping down. On the same day, the House of Peoples of the Supreme Soviet of the USSR met for the last time, the delegates raised their hands and the USSR disappeared legally and silently. “This is not a comedy, but a tragedy”, the communiqué said.

  That afternoon, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs was notified to meet in Zhongnanhai early the next morning. The decisions that needed to be made at this important moment in history tested the political wisdom of China’s top leadership, as it was not only about a shift in the diplomatic arena, but also about the future direction of China.

   ”Urgent” telegram

  On 27 December, the Central Committee’s discussion on countermeasures to the dissolution of the Soviet Union lasted only half an hour. According to Li Peng’s Foreign Affairs Diary, the meeting was chaired by Jiang Zemin, and an analysis of the situation after the dissolution of the Soviet Union was made, and it was agreed that our side would recognize the independence of the 12 former Union Republics.

  ”China has to stick to socialism, and as long as it gets its economy going, it is not afraid of anything.” According to Li Peng’s Foreign Affairs Diary, at the meeting Jiang Zemin said this, and then instructed that a telegram be sent immediately to Li Lanqing, Minister of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation, who was the visiting the foreign ministers and economics ministers of Russia and other countries, to so inform those countries. Li Jingxian drew the prepared telegram from his bag, drafted a page and gave it to Qian Qichen for revisions. Then the top leaders went through it and drew circled their names to indicate that they had approved it.

  On the 27th, Chinese state media kept a low profile. “People’s Daily” only published the news of the disintegration of the Soviet Union in the international edition and a reporter’s feature “Records of Changing Flags on Red Square”, which mentioned that people in Red Square had”very complicated” feelings. On the 28th, the decision of the Zhongnanhai meeting was published on the front page of the “People’s Daily”. In addition to some countries recognizing the independence of Russia and other countries, the international edition also quoted a report from the TASS news agency that the ruble circulation has increased sharply this year, and prices had risen by 96% in the first three quarters and that this was the cause of some concern.

  About a week after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Jiang Zemin called a meeting of 36 people for several days, in the morning and afternoon, and asked everyone to speak for no less than half an hour and to be thorough. These 36 people were all important officials and scholars associated with the Soviet Union or Russia. Some old comrades did not want to see the collapse of the Soviet Union; others believed that the collapse would objectively do more good than harm to China, as years of inequality and threats from the north disappeared and the international environment was conducive to improvements on China’s periphery. In the face of such a “sudden change”, all kinds of emotions, mentality and views are complex and subtle. Some scholars have put forward the “traitor theory from the top”, while some have expressed the “system theory”.

   A “Political mission” becomes “economics and trade mission”

  An hour or two after the Soviet flag had been lowered for the last time, a Boeing 767 chartered plane landed in Moscow carrying a Chinese government delegation headed by Li Lanqing. On the eve of departure, Li Peng expressed the need to send a minister, and changed the name of the trip from “political mission” to “economics and trade mission”, with Minister Li Lanqing as the head and Deputy Foreign Minister Tian Zengpei as the deputy head. The delegation included over 30 people from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs along with some entrepreneurs. At this time, the countries had not yet become independent and it was not appropriate to visit them on a “political mission”, but there was no delay in maintaining contacts.

  During the first few days of the Chinese delegation’s arrival in the Soviet Union, the negotiations progressed slowly. After the Zhongnanhai meeting on the 27th, when Foreign Minister Qian Qichen called the foreign ministers of the former Soviet republics to inform them of the recognition of their independence and their readiness to negotiate the establishment of diplomatic relations, the Chinese delegation was warmly received by all countries and the negotiations went extremely well.

  In fact, in September of that year, the day after the Soviet Union recognized the independence of the three Baltic States, Qian Qichen stated that the Chinese Government recognized the status of the three independent states. Three days later the Chinese delegation arrived in the three countries with the Chinese, Russian and English versions of the draft communiqué and the authorized signatures, followed by the signing of three communiqués on the establishment of diplomatic relations in three days, which was internationally remarkable for its speed.

   Respecting the countries’ own choices was the general idea. Zhou Xiaopei, who was the head of the Soviet Union Division of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Chinese Minister to Russia, revealed in an article that at that time “according to the decision of the Central Government and the instructions of the leadership of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, our focus was on observing the situation. We prepared for rainy days ahead and made various contingency plans. As soon as the Soviet Government publicly recognized the independence of a republic or formally declared its own dissolution, the issue of relations with Soviet countries was immediately resolved in one fell swoop in accordance with the three-step package of ‘recognition, establishment of diplomatic relations and setting up an embassy’.”

   Study of the “8-19 incident”

  The effects of the foreign ministry and the central leadership’s forethought and proactive planning months before was already evident.

  On 4 August 1991, Gorbachev went on holiday to the Crimean peninsula, after months of restlessness. The series of economic and political reforms he had introduced since taking office were running into difficulty and desiring “national self-determination”, the Union States of the USSR wanted to set up their own states.

  In 1990 and 1991, the three Baltic states became independent. Soon thereafter, Russia also issued the Declaration of State Sovereignty of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic. In response, Qian Qichen said, “Russia is the big one; its declaration of independence was tantamount making the Soviet Union untenable.”

  To prevent the disintegration of the Union and to maintain a minimum of national unity, Gorbachev found a lifeline – the New Union Treaty. As originally planned, the treaty was to be signed on August 20, 1991. What Gorbachev never expected was that on August 19, a coup d’état was staged by eight people in the top echelons of the Soviet Union who saw Gorbachev’s reforms could not succeed and were determined to rescue the Soviet regime as it tottered at the edge of precipice.

  The then Chinese ambassador to the Soviet Union, Yu Hongliang, promptly reported the news to the home country a little after 5:00 a.m. Beijing time on August 19. The PRC embassy in the Soviet Union called almost every quarter of an hour thereafter to report on developments.

  At 12:15 p.m. that day, Yeltsin announced from a tank outside the White House that he “opposes this ‘palace coup”. The leaders of the other republics echoed his call.

  At 3 p.m. on the 20th, Ambassador Yu telephoned home to say that the Prime Minister Pavlov, who had been involved in the “palace coup”, had just told reporters that he had been hospitalized with a “cold”. According to Ambassador Yu, the Soviet Premier was suffering from a “political illness”, indicating that the leaders involved in the event had panicked. When Foreign Minister Qian was informed, he said: “The situation seems to have been reversed.” On the morning of the 22nd, Gorbachev returned to Moscow from Crimea, and the “August 19 incident” ended in failure.

  In the afternoon of the 22nd, when Soviet Ambassador Solovyov called on Qian Qichen, he specifically conveyed Gorbachev’s greetings to the Chinese leader. After the meeting, Qian Qichen told Li Jingxian that there were two possibilities for the evolution of the situation in the Soviet Union: either there would be some kind of turnaround, or the situation would take a sharp and unmanageable turn. We have to pay special attention to the latter possibility. Later developments showed that Gorbachev was powerless and that the victor was Yeltsin. in early September, three Baltic republics declared independence and three months later the Soviet Union was dissolved.

  The “last” visit to the Soviet Union

  The Soviet revolution, reform and destiny weigh heavily on the minds of Chinese leaders, and their choices have changed according to the times and circumstances in the midst of the unpredictable world winds.

  In the early spring of 1991, during the continuing turmoil in Eastern Europe, Jiang Zemin, then General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, was pondering whether to visit the Soviet Union. “Some people say that the ruling party of the Soviet Communist Party has faltered, what is really going on?” One day in February 1991, Jiang Zemin asked Zhou Xiaopei, head of the Soviet Union Division of the Soviet-European Department of the Foreign Ministry, and others, after Jiang had received several invitations from Mikhail Gorbachev to visit the Soviet Union and along with a recent personal letter from Mikhail Gorbachev. Eventually, Jiang Zemin decided to visit the Soviet Union in May. At this time, Gorbachev was on the cusp of a storm: “It was difficult for me to do. Both the ‘left’ and the right criticized me. Some wanted to go backwards, which was unrealistic; some proposed to speed things up, which was risky.”

  ”Gorbachev’s confidence had been growing during months leading up to August 19. He was confident that the New Union Treaty would keep the country united – “Now all 15 of the constituent republics are here, meeting in Moscow to discuss the issue.” Qian Qichen recorded Gorbachev’s optimism at this time in his Ten Notes on Diplomacy, “Like the election of a pope in Rome, no one can leave the Sistine Chapel until the results are known.” However, after the August 19 incident, everyone had left the “church” never to return. Jiang Zemin’s visit became the last visit of a Chinese leader to the Soviet Union.

   Soviet Chronicle

  The “August 19 incident” was indeed unpredictable. Before Jiang Zemin’s visit, the representatives who had discussed the communiqué with the Soviet side had also had many exchanges and visits with friends and people in the Soviet diplomatic community. Their overall impression was that power at the top was tilting in Boris Yeltsin’s favor, but that Yeltsin did not necessarily want to dismantle the Soviet Union, a union of more than 20 million square kilometers of territory that could presumably continue to exist.

   Li Jingxian, who participated in the negotiations and research, also felt deeply the indifference of the lower classes to the question of the survival of the Soviet Union. “At that time, the Soviet Union was like sitting on a volcano. Although it was calm on the surface, people were restless. The situation looked good, but what people thought was completely different from what the top brass said.

   ”Tian Chunsheng, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Scienceswas a visiting scholar in the Soviet Union from 1989 to 1991. She recalls, “For example, I was living in the dormitory of the graduate school of the Russian Academy of Sciences and often chatted with Russians who had ideas about doing business, going abroad and so on. The situation did not feel very stable.”

  At the end of 1990, Tian Chunsheng was had been invited by a friend to travel to the three Baltic Soviet republics told her, “You have to hurry, if you don’t go, these three republics will leave the Soviet Union and you will need a passport to go there.”

   In April 1990, researcher Yu Shuo made a special trip to the Soviet Union in order to find out what “humane and democratic socialism” was. When he returned, he wrote a 10,000-word report that summarized the shortcomings of the Soviet model in three sentences: rigid and dogmatic ideology and theory; solidified and opportunistic economic management; and lack of democracy in political life.

   All handshakes, No hugs.

  The various kinds of surveys and research done prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union was actually to a greater or lesser degree to the judgments of the senior Chinese leadership, especially Deng Xiaoping.

  At 9.35 p.m. on 16 May 1989, in the East Hall of the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, Deng Xiaoping sat quietly waiting for a guest. He told the comrades present that for more than three years he “had been thinking about what to say to him today”. It was just a minute or two before 10 o’clock.

  At 10 o’clock, Mikhail Gorbachev came to Deng Xiaoping and the two top Soviet leaders shook hands for 35 seconds. But there was “no hug” on principle as Deng Xiaoping had specifically instructed for that meeting.

  There was no agenda, not even a speech. Even the Chinese did not know beforehand what he would talk about. With a microphone and a cup of tea in front of him, Deng Xiaoping spoke for most of the two and a half hours with Gorbachev responding occasionally and nodding more frequently. “I am going as a junior to meet an elder.” So Mikhail Gorbachev had told his entourage earlier. That year Deng was 85 and Gore was 58.

  ”Ending the past and opening up the future” was the tone set first by Deng Xiaoping. This broke the ice in the normalization of relations between the two powers. After Deng Xiaoping’s meeting with Mikhail Gorbachev, the situation in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union became even more turbulent. At one point, while talking with several central government officials, Deng said: “I think it is inevitable that there will be chaos in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union, and it is not easy to predict to just how bad it will get.”


苏联解体时刻:中南海的抉择

关键词:

来源:《思想理论动态参阅·文史参阅》2012年第45期 2021-03-01 11:25:06

苏联解体时刻:中南海的抉择

作者:田毅,张恒,王晓

1990年4月,俞邃研究员等专程前往苏联考察,想弄清楚“人道的、民主的社会主义”是什么。回来后,他写了一份万字报告,将苏联模式的弊端归结为三句话:思想理论僵化、教条;经济管理凝固化、机会主义;政治生活缺乏民主。

   北京朝阳门内大街外交部大楼四层,一阵电话铃声在一间办公室响起。外交部苏欧司副司长李景贤接起电话,电话来自远在莫斯科的中国驻苏联特命全权大使王荩卿。“苏联央视预告今晚七点钟有重要新闻直播!老戈(指戈尔巴乔夫)大概要‘完’了”,“已经意料到戈尔巴乔夫迟早要下台,但没预料到这么快”。1991年12月25日下午,李景贤放下电话,立即向钱其琛外长等领导报告。

  北京时间26日零时,外交部大楼里苏欧司苏联处的七八个人围在一台20英寸的电视机前。屏幕中戈尔巴乔夫开始他那著名的7分钟“告别演说”,这个连一寸国土都已经没有的“国王”平静地宣布下台。当天,苏联最高苏维埃人民院举行最后一次会议,代表们举了一下手,苏联就在法律上无声地消失了。公报说,“这不是一个喜剧,而是一个悲剧”。

下载 (4).jpg

  那天下午,外交部接到通知,第二天一早到中南海开会。在这个历史的重要时刻,需要做出的决策考验着中国最高领导层的政治智慧,因为这不仅关系着外交领域的转变,更关乎中国未来的走向。

  “特特急”电报

  12月27日,中央有关苏联解体对策的讨论只进行了半小时。据《李鹏外事日记》记载,这次会议由江泽民主持,对苏联解体后的形势作了分析,一致同意,我方承认原12个加盟共和国独立。

  “中国要坚持社会主义,只要把经济搞上去,就什么也不怕。”据《李鹏外事日记》记载,会上江泽民这样表示,并随即指示马上给正在俄罗斯等国访问的对外经贸部部长李岚清发电通知这些相关国家。李景贤从皮包里抽出备好的电报纸,立刻拟稿,写一页塞给前面的钱其琛修改一页,然后由最高层领导过目画圈。

  27日这天,中国官方媒体相当低调。《人民日报》仅仅在国际版刊发了苏联解体的消息和一篇记者特写《红场易帜纪实》,文中提到红场上人们的感情“十分复杂”。28日,中南海会议的决定刊发在《人民日报》头版,国际版除了一些国家承认俄罗斯等国独立外,还引用塔斯社报道说,今年卢布发行量剧增,前三季度物价上涨96%,似露忧心。

  苏联解体后一周左右,江泽民召集36人开了几天的会,上午下午连轴转,并要求人人发言不得少于半小时,要讲透彻。这36人都是与苏联或俄罗斯有关的重要官员和学者。此时有关苏联解体的讨论观点各异,一些老同志不愿看到苏联解体;另一些人则认为,解体客观上对中国利大于弊,来自北方多年的不平等和威胁消失,周边环境有利于建设。面对如此“突变”,各类情感、心态、观点复杂而微妙。一些学者提出“高层叛徒论”,一些则表达了“体制说”。

  “政治团”变“经贸团”

  苏联国旗落下后的一两小时,一架波音767包机载着李岚清为团长的中国政府代表团降落在莫斯科。出发前夕,李鹏表示需要派一位部长去,并由“政治团”改为“经贸团”,李岚清部长任团长,副外长田曾佩任副团长,由外交部和部分企业家共30多人组成。此刻各加盟国尚未独立,不宜以“政治团”名义出访,但保持交往却不可耽搁。

  中国代表团初到苏联的几日,谈判进展较慢,27日中南海会议后,钱其琛外长致电原苏联各加盟共和国外长告知承认其独立并准备谈判建交后,中国代表团受到各国热情接待,谈判极为顺利。

  其实,当年9月,当苏联承认波罗的海三国独立的第二天,钱其琛即表示中国政府承认三国独立国家的地位。三天后中国代表团带着公报草案的中、俄、英文版本和授权签字书抵达三国,随后三天签署了三份建交公报,这样的神速国际瞩目。

  尊重各国自己的选择是总体思路。曾任外交部苏欧司苏联处处长、中国驻俄罗斯公使的周晓沛在一篇文章中透露:当时“根据中央决策及外交部领导的指示,我们注意冷静观察。未雨绸缪,并做好各种应急预案。一旦苏联政府公开承认某共和国独立或正式宣告自身解体,立即按‘承认、建交、设馆’的一揽子三步曲,一举解决与苏联各国的关系问题”。

  研判“8·19事件”

  外交部门及中央领导提前预判与未雨绸缪的效果在几个月前已显露出来。

  1991年8月4日,戈尔巴乔夫去克里米亚半岛度假,此前的几个月,戈氏焦躁不安。由于他上任之后推行的一系列经济、政治体制改革问题重重,在“民族自决”的影响下,各个联盟国欲自立门户。

  1990年和1991年,波罗的海三国相继独立,很快,俄罗斯也发表了《俄罗斯联邦国家主权宣言》。对此,钱其琛说:“俄罗斯是个大块头,它宣告独立,对苏联来说,无异于釜底抽薪。”

  为防止联邦瓦解和维持最低限度国家统一,戈尔巴乔夫找到了一根救命稻草——新联盟条约。按照原计划,条约将于1991年8月20日签署。戈尔巴乔夫万万没想到的是,8月19日,苏联高层8人发动政变,他们认为戈氏改革难以进行,试图挽救站在悬崖边上的苏维埃政权。

  8月19日北京时间清早五点多钟,时任中国驻苏联大使于洪亮迅速向国内报告了这一消息,之后几乎每隔一刻钟,驻苏联使馆就来电报告事态进展。

  当天中午12点15分,叶利钦在白宫外的一辆坦克上宣布“反对这次‘逼宫事件’”,其他加盟共和国的领导人纷纷赞同。

  20日下午3点,于大使打电话给国内说,参与“逼宫事件”的总理巴甫洛夫刚刚告诉记者,他因“患感冒”已入院治疗。于大使认为,苏联总理患的是“政治病”,表明参加这一事件的头头们慌了手脚。钱外长得知后说:“形势看来已经发生逆转”。22日晨,戈尔巴乔夫从克里米亚回到了莫斯科,“8·19事件”以失败告终。

  22日下午,苏联驻华大使索洛维约夫拜会钱其琛时,专门转达了戈尔巴乔夫对中国领导人的问候。会见后,钱其琛对李景贤说:苏联局势的演变有两种可能,一是出现某种转机,二是形势急转直下,不可收拾。我们要特别关注后一种可能性。日后的事态发展表明,戈尔巴乔夫已回天无力,胜利者是叶利钦。9月初,3个波罗的海沿岸共和国宣布独立,3个月后苏联解体。

  “最后一次”访苏

  苏联革命、改革及命运在中国领导人心中的分量很重,在变幻莫测的世界风云中,其选择也因时因势而变。

  东欧局势持续动荡的1991年初春,时任中共中央总书记的江泽民正思考要不要访问苏联。“有人说苏共的执政党地位已摇摇欲坠,现实情况到底怎么样?”1991年2月的一天,江泽民问外交部苏欧司苏联处处长周晓沛等人,此前江泽民已多次收到戈尔巴乔夫访苏邀请,最近还收到戈氏的亲笔信。最终,江泽民决定5月访苏。此时的戈尔巴乔夫正处在风口浪尖。“我很难办。‘左’派和右派都批评我。有的想走回头路,这不现实;有的提出要加快速度,这是冒险。”

  “8·19事件”前的这几个月,正是戈尔巴乔夫自信有所增长的时候。他相信新的联盟条约能保持国家的统一——“现在15个加盟共和国都来人了,正在莫斯科开会讨论这个问题。”钱其琛在《外交十记》中记录了此时戈氏的乐观,“就像罗马选教皇一样,结果出来之前,谁也不能离开教堂。”不过,“8·19事件”后所有人都离开了“教堂”,一去不返。江泽民此次访问也成为中国领导人最后一次访问苏联。

  苏维埃纪行

  “8·19事件”确实难以预计。江泽民访问之前,先期与苏方讨论公报的代表也多次与苏联外交界朋友和百姓交流、考察。他们的总体印象是,高层权力在向叶利钦倾斜,但叶氏也未必想解散苏联。2000多万平方公里的联盟估计能够继续存在。

  参与谈判调研的李景贤还深深感受到底层群众对苏联存亡问题的冷漠。“那时苏联像是坐在一座火山上。虽然表面上很平静,但是人们很浮躁。看起来形势大好,但是人们想的和高层说的完全不一样。

  ”中国社会科学院研究员田春生1989~1991年在苏联做访问学者,她回忆说,“比如我当时住在俄罗斯科学院研究生院宿舍里,经常和俄罗斯人聊天,他们有做生意、出国等等想法,感觉不是很稳定。”

  1990年底,田春生还应朋友之邀去波罗的海三国旅行,朋友对她说:“你得赶紧去,要是不去的话,这三个共和国就会脱离苏联,再去就要护照了。”

  1990年4月,俞邃研究员等专程前往苏联考察,想弄清楚“人道的、民主的社会主义”是什么。回来后,他写了一份万字报告,将苏联模式的弊端归结为三句话:思想理论僵化、教条;经济管理凝固化、机会主义;政治生活缺乏民主。

  只握手,不拥抱

  苏联解体前的各类调研其实多少都与中国高层领导尤其是邓小平的判断有关。

  1989年5月16日9点35分,北京人民大会堂东大厅,邓小平安静地坐着等一个人。他对在场的同志说:这三年多时间里,“就想着今天怎么样跟他谈”。10点差一两分钟。

  邓小平破例走到东大厅正门外迎客。10时整,戈尔巴乔夫来到邓小平跟前,中苏两位最高领导人的手握在一起达35秒,但“贯彻”了邓小平之前特别叮嘱的这次见面时“不拥抱”的原则。

  没有提纲,更没有讲话稿,就是中方人士也事前不知道他将谈什么。面前一个麦克风、一杯茶,两个半小时大多是邓小平在说,戈尔巴乔夫偶尔回应,更多频频点头。“我是作为一个晚辈去见一位长辈的。”戈氏之前曾这样对随行人员说,这一年邓小平85岁,戈氏58岁。

  “结束过去,开辟未来”是邓小平首先定下的调子,中苏两大国关系正常化由此破冰。邓小平与戈尔巴乔夫会见后,东欧、苏联的局势进一步动荡。有一次,他与几位中央负责人谈话时说:东欧、苏联乱,我看也不可避免,至于乱到什么程度,现在不好预料。

Posted in Bilateral Relations, Foreign Relations 外交, History 历史, Russia | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

2022 Jiang Zemin: Architect of Russia-China Friendship

I have been trying out the new DeepL machine translation Chrome extension on my Chrome browser to read some Russian websites. I studied only a year of Russian twenty years ago which I have since forgotten so I am dependent on the machine translation. DeepL produces much more readable text than I expected from a machine translation program. DeepL can automatically translate what your browser ‘sees’ into English or several other languages.

The DeepL Chrome extension joins the standalone DeepL translation program (online and downloadabe) and Google Lens as another tool that makes translating quicker and easier. While the poison cookie problem of machine translation has not gone away — I still need to check my Chinese translations, correct or retranslated complex or scrambled passages, and check for passages in the original that were left out or repeated.

See my Notes on Chinese-English and Chinese-Chinese Translation Tools for more.

Here I have translating Russian blind (since my faded Russian doesn’t give me anything more than knowing vaguely what the passage is about) so in using machine translation I am being a bit of a daredevil. Looking over this text, I didn’t see any obvious poison cookies — though it is just the hidden ones that kill you. I wouldn’t consider this text as reliable as what I do in Chinese even though I can’t see anything wrong with it.

I made only slight adjustments to the text in several spots to smooth out the wording. These two TASS reports are examples:

What an architect of Russian-Chinese friendship Jiang Zemin was!

Каким был архитектор российско-китайской дружбы Цзян Цзэминь

Former PRC President and former General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China Jiang Zemin

© Sergey Velichkin, Vladimir Rodionov/TASS archive

BEIJING, Nov 30. /TASS/. Former Chinese President and former General Secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee Jiang Zemin died Wednesday in Shanghai at the age of 96. Jiang Zemin was the leader of China’s third generation of leaders. Unlike Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping, he was not an active participant in China’s revolutionary struggle. Jiang Zemin is a hereditary intellectual whose linguistic, musical and literary talents are legendary. He has gone down in history as one of the most brilliant Chinese politicians, and in the history of Russian-Chinese relations he will be remembered as the architect of modern Russian-Chinese friendship.

“Comrade Zimin.”

Jiang Zemin was born on August 17, 1926 in Yangzhou, Jiangsu province. His youth fell on difficult time for China – civil war and Japanese occupation. Jiang Zemin received the basics of traditional Confucian education: he studied music, poetry and calligraphy.

He joined the CCP in 1946, while studying at the Electrical Engineering Department of Jiaotong University in Shanghai. In the same city, Jiang Zemin, an electrical engineer by training, began his working career in a food factory.

In 1955, China sent 500 workers for training to Moscow at the 1st State Automobile Plant named after I.V. Stalin in Moscow (ZIS, the future ZIL). Young Jiang Zemin was among them.

The Chinese interns impressed the Soviet workers with their diligence. As the Soviet specialists recalled, Jiang Zemin was never late, did not raise his voice and was not sad. Then he received a consonant “Russian name” – in the factory he was called “Comrade Zimin”.

In Moscow, Jiang Zemin learned Russian. This allowed him to later read Pushkin’s and Simonov’s works in the original. In addition, he learned many Russian phrases during this internship. Later, Soviet correspondents would often address him from the crowd of foreign journalists, “How are you doing, Comrade Jiang?” “Business is going, the office is writing,” Jiang Zemin answered them cheerfully and with a smile in Russian.

Reformer

He worked for the Ministry of Mechanical Engineering of the People’s Republic of China for about 30 years: from an assistant factory engineer to the director of a major research institute, having also had time to undergo “re-education through labor” in the countryside during the “cultural revolution”.

It is believed that one of the important stages of his ascent to the political Olympus of China was the difficult years for the country in the 1980s. In 1985 he became mayor of Shanghai and in 1987 he became head of the city’s Party Committee. When student unrest broke out in Shanghai in April 1989, Jiang Zemin was able to resolve the conflict peacefully, avoiding troops and bloodshed. This was noted by the leadership and enabled him to become Deng Xiaoping’s successor.

After becoming General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee (1989) and Chairman of the People’s Republic of China (1993), Jiang Zemin continued Deng Xiaoping’s course of reforming the country’s economy. During his rule, China’s GDP grew at an average of 10% a year. Hong Kong returned under Chinese sovereignty in 1997, and Macao returned in 1999. Moreover, under his leadership, the country successfully overcame consequences of the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis. In 2001, Beijing was chosen as the host city for the 2008 Olympics, and China joined the WTO.

Jiang Zemin also spoke Romanian and English, and read Japanese and French. He remains the only top Chinese leader who spoke English.

Architect of Russian-Chinese Friendship

During his years in power, Jiang Zemin advocated the development of Russian-Chinese relations. In 2001, he and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the Treaty of Good Neighborhood, Friendship and Cooperation. After signing the document, Jiang Zemin said: “We have accomplished a great deed today, but our grandchildren will benefit from it.”

Jiang Zemin praised the significance of this document. “Two points of this treaty are worth emphasizing. First, ‘to pass on friendship from generation to generation, never to be enemies with each other. Second, to lay a solid legal foundation for China and Russia to become good neighbors and good partners for all time,” he recounted.

An Admirer of Russian Literature and a Poet

As Jiang Zemin himself admitted, he developed a love for Russian literature even before his internship in the USSR. “Even before I left China, I fell in love with Russian literature. We were all into Pushkin’s poetry back then. We liked Pushkin’s lyrics and romantic poems. We also liked such works of Tolstoy as “Anna Karenina”, “Resurrection”, “War and Peace”. With pleasure read Chekhov, Turgenev, were interested in Gorky. We also liked Simonov’s poems, especially ‘Wait for Me’ because they encouraged us a lot,” he said.

It is also known that Jiang Zemin was fond of the ancient Chinese poets of the Tang and Song dynasties and often quoted them and wrote poems himself.

A fan of Mozart and Elvis Presley

Jiang Zemin played the Chinese bamboo flute, piano, harmonica, guitar, and the Chinese bowed instrument erhu. In 1999, when he visited Austria, he visited Salzburg and played a Chinese song on the piano in Mozart’s house. In addition, Jiang Zemin was known to love the works of Beethoven and Tchaikovsky.

Another passion of Jiang Zemin was singing. He could be heard singing Chinese opera and Soviet hymns of the 1940s and 1950s. He sang in English and Italian. In 1996, during a dinner in the Philippines with that country’s president, Jiang Zemin sang Love Me Tender by Elvis Presley and tried his hand at performing the cha-cha-cha.

In 1997, Jiang Zemin performed a part from a Beijing opera during an official visit to the United States in Los Angeles. In Hawaii, he attempted a local hula dance and dazzled everyone with his swim: the 71-year-old Chinese president donned a bathing cap and swimming trunks and spent about an hour in the waters of the Pacific Ocean.

In addition, he had a passion for sports since childhood. At school he won competitions in running. Later he played basketball and volleyball, and in recent years he loved swimming.

A Meme Hero

Many foreign journalists recall that Jiang Zemin broke the image of the strict leader of the Chinese Communist Party. His wide smile, large square glasses and love of jokes, including in English, distinguished him from the usually rather reserved representatives of the Chinese leadership.

In recent years, now retired, he has become a real hero of memes. Stickers with his photos are actively circulating on social networks. At the XIX Congress of the CPC in 2017, the always bored politician, who was 91 at the time, was remembered by journalists for scrutinizing documents with a huge magnifying glass.

A Strict Father and an Indulgent Grandfather

In an interview with TASS, Jiang Zemin admitted to being a strict father to his two sons. He said he demanded that his children “love the motherland, study hard, set themselves the right goals, truly master knowledge and be useful to the country, people and society”. “As for grandchildren and granddaughters, let this young generation be brought up by their parents,” he explained.

The life of the former PRC chairman and the features of his biography from beginning to end were filled with contradictions. He seemed to combine incongruities. And as if he did it deliberately. This is exactly what modern China is today – a combination of seemingly contradictory phenomena. And it is this country, with all of its contradictions, Jiang Zemin put it on the rails, which led it to what later was called an economic miracle: under him China’s GDP grew several times over.

Jiang Zemin was tough but able to compromise, a pragmatist who set out to improve the country’s prosperity. Even his name (“Zemin”) can be loosely translated as “doing good for the people. 


Biography of Jiang Zemin

Биография Цзян Цзэминя

Jiang Zemin

© Keivan/Getty Images

Former President of the People’s Republic of China died on 30 November at the age of 96

TASS RELEASE. Former President of the People’s Republic of China Jiang Zemindiedon November 30, 2022 in Shanghai at the age of 96 .

Origins and Education

Jiang Zemin was born on August 17, 1926, in Yangzhou, eastern Jiangsu Province. His grandfather Jiang Shixi was a merchant and a doctor of traditional Chinese medicine. Little is known about his father, Jiang Shijun. According to some reports, he was a collaborator and worked for the puppet government in Nanjing (Jiangsu was occupied by Japan from 1937 to 1945). According to Jiang Zemin’s official biography, he was adopted in 1939 with his parents’ consent by the widow of his uncle, communist Jiang Shanqing. Reliably, his family is known to have belonged to the intelligentsia. Along with modern education, Jiang Zemin received the basics of traditional Confucian education: he studied music, poetry, and calligraphy. In 1946 he joined the Communist Party of China (CPC), a year later he graduated from the Faculty of Electrical Engineering of one of the leading universities of the country – Jiaotong University (Shanghai).

Labor Activities

Before graduating, he began working in a food processing factory in Shanghai, later becoming deputy director of a soap factory and then heading the electric equipment department at the Shanghai Design Bureau of the First Ministry of Machinery of the People’s Republic of China.

In 1955 he did an internship at the 1st State Automobile Plant named after I.V. Stalin in Moscow (in 1956-2016 – Likhachev Plant, ZIL), and then worked until 1962 at China’s first automobile plant in Changchun (northeastern province, Jilin, built with the assistance of the USSR).

From 1962-1980, he worked in various enterprises and research institutes in Shanghai and Wuhan, as well as in the International Liaison Department of the First Ministry of Mechanical Engineering in Beijing.

In the party and the government

Since 1980, Jiang Zemin held senior positions in the State Import-Export Control and Foreign Investment Committees. During this period, he supervised the establishment and operation of China’s first Shenzhen Special Economic Zone (SEZ).

From 1982-1985, he served as Minister of Electronic Industry of the People’s Republic of China.

In September 1982 he was elected a member of the Central Committee, in November 1987 – a member of Politburo of the CPC Central Committee.

In 1985 he became mayor of Shanghai and in 1987 he became secretary of the Shanghai Municipal Committee of the CPC. In these positions, he promoted reforms and policies to broaden ties between the country’s largest city and the outside world. When anti-government unrest broke out in Shanghai in April 1989, Jiang Zemin was able to resolve the conflict without introducing troops (while in Beijing the student protests in Tiananmen Square were suppressed with the help of the army). Jiang Zemin’s actions in this situation were noted at the highest level: he was chosen to succeed the de facto leader of the PRC – Chairman of the PRC Central Military Council Deng Xiaoping.

The Leader of the PRC

In June 1989, Jiang Zemin became a member of the Standing Committee of Politburo and General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee. In November of the same year he became chairman of the Military Council of the CPC Central Committee, in April 1990 chairman of Central Military Council of the PRC, and on March 27, 1993 chairman of the PRC. Thus, Jiang Zemin was considered to be the leader of the so-called third generation of the Chinese leaders (after Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping). The official Chinese press referred to him as the “core” of the country’s collective leadership.

As Chairman of the PRC he consistently pursued Deng Xiaoping’s policy of building “socialism with Chinese characteristics”, which implied liberal reforms in the economy while maintaining the Party’s control over the political sphere. During the period when Jiang Zemin led the Party and the state, the Chinese economy was adding 10% to GDP on average. It was at the same time that China experienced important domestic political events such as the reunification with Hong Kong in 1997 and Macao in 1999 as well as its accession to the WTO in 2001 and the successful recovery from the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis.

In 2000, Jiang Zemin first put forward the idea of “three representations”, according to which the party should “express the interests of the advanced productive forces, advanced culture and all Chinese people”. As a result, the CCP partially abandoned the class approach in personnel policy. In practice, this meant that restrictions on entry into the Party by entrepreneurs and other categories not traditionally classified as proletariat were lifted.

Jiang Zemin played an important role in the establishment of relations between Russia and China, the result of this process was the signing during his visit to Russia in July 2001 of the Treaty of Good Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation. He was also one of the initiators of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO, 2001).

On November 14, 2002, Jiang Zemin officially resigned as General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee. On March 15, 2003, he also left the top state post – Hu Jintao, a member of the fourth generation of Chinese leaders, was elected Chairman of the People’s Republic of China. The transfer of power was completed in March 2005 when Hu Jintao succeeded Jiang Zemin as Chairman of the Central Military Commission. 

Posted in Bilateral Relations, Foreign Relations 外交 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

2019: DARPA Management Mechanism Characteristics and Intelligent Development: Lessons for China’s Military S&T III

The translation below is a translation from a foreign periodical into Chinese that I have translated into English. China also translates vast quantities of U.S. Department of Defense publications. Why re-invent the wheel?

Some Comments on Translations in China

Foreign technical standards too are often translated into Chinese and promulgated as Chinese national technical standards: one example was the U.S. civil air regulations in the 1990 and the PLA Navy translating U.S. Navy standards into Chinese and making them GJB or HJB PRC national standards.

The Compilation and Translation Bureau of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee also does translations into Chinese. I visited there once with some colleagues from U.S. Embassy Beijing in 2010. One of them, an expert on Chinese publications from the Open Source Center, told pointed to the 1980s translation of Lenin’s Collected Works into Chinese and told me “When they translated Lenin into Chinese, they massaged the translation from Russian so that Lenin would support Deng Xiaoping Theory.”

Translations projects can be sensitive in China or even when the translation project starts with collecting as many texts as possible as Japanese scholars led by Takeuchi Minoru and translators of Mao Zedong discovered. The Party didn’t approve of publishing Mao’s earlier works (he didn’t agree himself with some of them later) and Mao’s works were revised or updated from time to time. The question even arose whether Chinese scholars should have access to the early writings of Mao! The solicitude of the Party extends to protecting tender scholarly minds from going astray.

The Japanese edition of Collected Works of Mao Zedong includes materials mainly from Mao’s texts before 1949, and today, most of these materials and even many documents not included in “Mao Zedong’s collection” have been published publicly in China one after another. We can safely say that the number of domestic publications of Mao’s texts before the founding of the PRC, especially before 1920, is by no means comparable to the Japanese edition of Mao’s Collected Works, except for a limited number of texts. However, the Japanese edition has a high academic research value in terms of both the “whole” and “original” texts.

Firstly, from the perspective of “complete”, according to Mr. Zhou Ping’s testimony, there are still many texts that have been included in the Japanese edition but have not been officially published in China, including more than 30 texts from 1921 to July 1927 and more than 300 texts after August 1927. [10]

Secondly, from the point of view of the “original”, the Japanese edition includes many first-hand, uncorrected manuscripts that have not yet been published in China. For example, the article “Analysis of the Classes in Chinese Society” has been officially published in China, but there is a difference in content between the original version of the article and the current version. Moreover, the revision of this text was done by Mao himself, indicating that Mao himself no longer agreed with his own ideas and views at that time, which is not too influential in the general readership outside the researcher, but helps the reader to understand Mao as a real individual. If this issue is avoided excessively, it may instead be deliberately distorted by those with ulterior motives.

The author believes that, under the present conditions, researchers can be allowed in some cases to use the Japanese edition of Mao’s Collected Works in their academic studies. The publication (internal distribution) of the Early Manuscripts of Mao Zedong has proved to produce good results, and a large body of scholarship has begun to use it as a documentary basis to objectively and openly reproduce the process of Mao’s early ideological changes.

Mao Zedong Studies in a Documentary Perspective – From the Editorial Principles of the Japanese Edition of the Collected Works of Mao Zedong“, Nanjing University, Marxist Social Theory Research Center, Nanjing 210093 Journal of Nanjing University, No. 2, 2006.


(Nanjing University, Marxist Social Theory Research Center, Nanjing 210093)

The China – US Translation Gap

China translates oceans of materials from US media, publications and books while the United States government does far less and has shown over that it intends to do even less. My own experience working at State Department on both Russia and China has shown me this. When I worked on the Russia Desk 2002 – 2004 it seemed that if anything important was happening, I would have in a few days available good translations and analysis on the issue. It was amazing. This kind of expertise on Russia took generations to develop and perhaps after the Soviet Union dissolved, some of that expertise was lost as people retired. Working on China I noticed there was far less available.

When I worked in China Beijing 2007 – 2012 and Chengdu 2007 – 2012 I was able to plug into a wealth of Chinese expertise (many Chinese officials were very kind in explaining things to me and answering my questions) and open sources — books, journals and newspapers, Chinese think tank materials were available to me. I suppose just because of the high language barrier with China, I found impressing people back in Washington was much easier than I expected. One day in fall 2007 my Science Counselor Marco DiCapua told me that he hadn’t been allowed to attend a conference on science and technology reform but his contact on science affairs had given him the conference volume entitled Science and Education for a Prosperous China 科教興國. He asked me to look through it. I wrote a series of reporting cables that made a big impression in the State and intel world. Just a book summary and report really. I imagine if we had a much larger translation effort, we would have picked up earlier on the reform initiatives discussed at the conference.

My Book report: Science and Education via the Internet Archive

When book summary reports can make a big impression, that could be a sign that we are not paying attention. Including not selecting significant articles, translating and analyzing them. The Open Source Center (re-incarnation of FBIS) did a lot of good work but is underfunded. The U.S. effort could never be as large as the Chinese effort, just thinking of the linguistic manpower involved yet a great deal more could be done than is being done now. Much can be done outside the intelligence agencies where this work has traditionally resided. The U.S. government loses a lot of good talent from unnecessary security clearance requirements.

A Blog Editorial: The U.S. Government and Congress Should Act

The U.S. Congress should create a new public open-source translation and material service for China and other countries, along the lines of the Foreign Broadcast Information Service (FBIS). 

FBIS was a crucial tool for helping democratic countries to understand and craft better policies towards the Soviet Union, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and other countries around the world. Our failure to embrace widespread, public open-source material has demonstrably hurt U.S. foreign policy. The Open Translation and Analysis Center Authorization Act  would have provided a strong model for how we can develop the open source capabilities necessary to further US interests, maintain national security, and compete in the global information competition.

It seems unlikely to pass in this Congress. I hope something like it will be introduced in the next Congress. I would imagine that this would not be a partisan issue but you never can tell these days!

In the information age, open source material has never been as readily available and in the United States case it has never been so underutilized. 

Historically, open source material has been constrained by its traditional home in the U.S. intelligence community where it has played a supporting role as “collateral” information. Although clandestine work is essential, open source material is indispensable in gaining a full understanding of a country. 

Yet, the Intelligence Community continues to devote a worrying low level of resources to open source translation and analysis. Even the output it still produces is not widely shared with other government departments let with the media or general public. This has reduced their understanding of the PRC and the threat it poses to the democratic world.

By contrast, the PRC commits substantial amounts of economic resources and places a strong emphasis on open source material. Although many in the U.S. may dismiss PRC speeches and documents as propaganda, that is not how Beijing views them. In fact, PRC officials are required to spend a growing amount of their time studying public speeches and documents from the top leadership. Similarly, China translates vast quantities of US media, Congressional debate, and government publications, including Department of Defense publications, to better understand us.

Our understanding of China, both inside and outside the US government, has thus been crippled by our neglect of open source information, placing us at a severe disadvantage. 

Chinese media and publicly available documents, in their stunning variety, can provide a clearer picture of Chinese Communist Party regime in its many local rivalries, complexities, strengths and weaknesses.  Our failure to engage with open source material also allows China to use the language barrier to “maintain the distinction between the inner and the outer.” That is, it allows Beijing to present itself to the world as it wants to be seen, even as it depicts a different picture internally. Changing this is essential in the global information competition.

A new approach is needed—namely, a U.S. government funded China open source organization outside the intelligence community. It’s role would be to produce translations, brief overviews, and occasional longer reports inspired by Congressional Research Service reports which will serve the US more effectively. Unlike, the intelligence community, this information would be shared publicly, expanding the US public’s understanding of China as well as the world’s.

The open source effort would develop personnel with a deep understanding of China and other countries, maintain regular contact with the academic community, media, allied governments, and recruit talent throughout the US. 

Personnel with deep expertise will provide the necessary context to help top officials, the media, and the general public understand the documents that are translated. Although modern translation tools can streamline work, they cannot replace human beings in providing this critical context.

A U.S. government-funded open source collection, translation and contextualizing effort would be a  public good that will make China in all its complexities – including the turmoil of domestic politics and the domestic political context of the China’s foreign relations – more easily understood so that the US government, allied powers, and publics around the world can  better understand a regime increasingly seeks opposed to their values which seems to challenge the international rules-based order.


Previous Chinese translations on DARPA

I find the history of science and technology fascinating. Technology and Culture and Isis are two journals I like in that field. Probably why I am doing this series on the Chinese military S&T people looking at DARPA that they put together with PRC military S&T domestic concerns in mind. The first Gulf War and the “revolution in military affairs” was a big shock to Chinese military thinkers.


DARPA Management Mechanism Characteristics and Intelligent Systems Development

April 26, 2019 

from a foreign periodical March 2019 an overview

As the cradle of U.S. defense science and technology innovation, DARPA’s role has generally been to engage in basic research that has potential military applications but is not on the current agenda of the Army, Navy, or Air Force. Although not often visible, DARPA has always played an extremely important role as a rare mirror of our efforts to advance defense science and technology innovation, whether in the armed-to-the-teeth U.S. military or in the various new technologies of everyday life, from the military to the civilian sector.

I. Incubators of innovation born out of the Cold War

On October 4, 1957, the Soviet Union launched the first human satellite, Sputnik-1. The satellite was 58 centimeters in diameter and weighed 83.6 kilograms (about 184 pounds). Due to the Cold War underway at that time, both the U.S. and the Soviet Union paid close attention to the armaments of each other’s “important enemies”, and the successful launch of Sputnik-1 undoubtedly brought a huge shock to the United States. The next day, the New York Times printed in bold 0.5-inch capital letters across the front page: “Orbiting Earth at 18,000 Miles per Hour Radio Signal Confirms Satellite Passed Orbit Over United States”. The British newspaper Manchester Guardian also reported, “‘Sputnik-1’ satellite has shown unmistakably that Moscow can now build intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of attacking any given target in the world, and it is clear that the Russians have taken a great lead in the field of outer space. The superiority of American nuclear power will henceforth be history, a brutal fact that the free world will find doubly painful but has to accept.”

On the same day, the Soviet Union also announced the successful launch of the Sputnik-1 artificial satellite in its official newspaper Pravda: “News came of a new outstanding triumph of Soviet science and technology that stirred the world yesterday. Thanks to the extremely intensive work of our scientific institutes and design schools, we have created the world’s first artificial Earth satellite. The satellite now orbits the Earth in an ellipse at a speed of about 8,000 meters per second, and its orbit takes one hour and 36.2 minutes ……” The Soviet newspaper Pravda did not fail to take the opportunity to mock the meaning of this artificial satellite for the United States: “Now is not the time for the American ruling clique to come out of the dead end into which they have drilled themselves? You know, it was they who initiated the arms race, claiming their monopoly on atomic weapons. But their calculations have fallen flat. They continued the arms race by shouting about the hydrogen bomb, which the US had a monopoly on, and their calculations fell apart again. They rejected Soviet disarmament proposals and bragged about their rocket weapons. This time they were defeated again because the Soviet Union had made an intercontinental ballistic rocket.”

To avoid another technology surprise that would leave the US a passive bystander and to ensure its own technological superiority, in February 1958, the U.S. government announced the establishment of the Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA), the predecessor of today’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). As an agency of the U.S. Department of Defense, DARPA has maintained its mission to “maintain U.S. technological leadership and prevent potential adversaries from unexpectedly overtaking”. DARPA has done much exploratory work to promote technological innovations and new capabilities with disruptive impact. These include the Internet, GPS, stealth warplanes, unmanned aircraft, hypersonic aircraft, intelligent voice assistants. In many other areas as well DARPA’s work has led to important breakthroughs DARPA science and technology has provided a solid foundation for U.S. military technological leadership and today many institutions worldwide that aim to be innovative see it as the benchmark for cutting-edge, exploratory, and disruptive research in the eyes of global innovation institutions.

In recent years, DARPA has continued to support research in artificial intelligence and related fields. The special nature of defense strategic research, means it has limited application in other areas, and cannot be directly applied there. However, we can still from unclassified technical reports get an idea of the direction of its research work and understand something of the application of artificial intelligence in warfare from its strategic explorations of certain areas of cutting-edge science and technology. 

II. Science and Technology Innovation for Intelligent Warfare

The hard power and strategic deterrence of the U.S. military relies heavily on its constant ability to be innovative in science and technology, especially its keen capture of strategic frontier technologies. In recent years, DARPA has increased its focus on and escalation of smart technology, laying out a series of scientific research and exploration projects, aiming the target at the future intelligent reconfiguration of the battlefield.

(i) Upgrading of smart technology

1. Transparent Computing Technology – “Transparent Computing”

When a computation result finishes close but not precisely correct, then computation intelligence aims to “open up the black box” of reaching the result by making an approximation that is only infinitesimally different from the precise result in order to arrive at the optimal solution. However, since people’s knowledge of the inner workings of computer systems is like a black box, there is almost no way to observe the exact process. This greatly limits the ability to fully understand cyber operations and, naturally, to detect and respond to certain major cyber threats, especially those that employ more complex mechanisms and are persistent. 

DARPA’s Transparent Computing project aims to make currently opaque computer systems more transparent by providing high-fidelity visibility with minimal system performance loss. Transparent computing supports research on computational models and systems involved in scientific research and experimentation, as well as inferential computing and communication. The project will develop techniques for recording and preserving the origin of all system elements/components (inputs, software modules, processes, etc.) to dynamically track interactions and causal relationships between networked system components, integrating and analyzing these relationships in end-to-end system operations. At the same time, Transparent Computing will develop basic technologies and experimental prototypes consisting of multi-layered data collection systems and analysis/execution drivers to enable proactively enforced idealized policies (allow/disallow interactions), near real-time intrusion detection and argument and analysis, and a new jumping off point for upgrading computing technologies.

2. The ultimate search system – “Memex Deep Web Search

An experiment was conducted with Google in the United States, where the search engine would prioritize the sentences and websites with the highest weight based on these words or phrases by typing “the 10 deepest lakes in the U.S.” into the Google search bar. In response to the experiment, Google’s explanation was that the search engine could not yet understand that the phrase entered was a problem. In addition, the search algorithm sometimes misses web information that cannot be retrieved by standard search engines, resulting in the loss of shared content across pages. This shows that even the very best performing web search engines still face technical challenges.

DARPA’s Memex Deep Web Search project aims to create better ways to interact and share information so that users can quickly and comprehensively organize and search for subsets of information relevant to their personal interests. Deep Web Search is an analog computing technology that supplements human memory by storing and automatically cross-referencing all of a user’s books, records, and other information to achieve the ability to quickly and flexibly search large amounts of information to efficiently gain relevant insights. The project will develop mechanisms for advanced online search capabilities that go well beyond current levels and provide improved content exploration, information extraction, information retrieval, user collaboration, and other key search functions.

3. Precision information platform – “Mission-oriented Resilient Clouds

Although the United States has long been planning for a “cloud strategy” – a shift in information technology from traditional workstations to cloud computing environments in future warfare – the security questions related to moving compressed sensitive data and computing into cloud computing systems have not yet been fully addressed. The key issue here is that the national perimeter defense focus of traditional security solutions cannot cover the “silo” security of today. In a cloud environment. Traditional security will be further marginalized in the cloud environment by a high concentration of similar hosts in a high-speed network environment, with absolute confidence in the hosts within a limited perimeter defense area without internal checks.

DARPA’s “Mission-Oriented Resilient Cloud” project aims to address some of the potential security challenges by developing attack detection, diagnosis, and response technologies in the cloud. To this end, the project will focus on completing assigned cloud defenses, creating shared situational awareness and dynamic trust models, introducing manageable and assignable to task diversity into other similar cloud systems, and developing mission-aware adaptive networking technologies. The project will also work in parallel with the U.S. Department of Defense’s “Clean-slate design of Resilient, Adaptive, Secure Host” initiative to limit host security vulnerabilities.

III. Improving Learning Capacity

Pedro Dominguez, a professor of computer science at the University of Washington, noted that “if robots mastered all human capabilities except for learning, humans would soon abandon them.” But it is the autonomous learning function of artificial intelligence, whereby it can acquire “rules” as things progress and gradually develop strategies to improve its performance without being told in advance what to do in conceptual form. Here, the difference between the human brain and neural networks is that learning enhancement in the human brain is a biochemical process, whereas learning enhancement in neural networks occurs by a different mechanism, namely by modifying its own code to find connections between inputs and outputs or between causes and outcomes in complex situations.

1. Theoretical framework construction – “the fundamental limits of learning”

The International Data Corporation estimates that the amount of data currently online is about 4.4 zettabytes, and if this data could be fed into an IPad Air (Apple’s ultra-thin tablet), the resulting stack of IPads would be able to cover 2/3 of the distance from the Earth to the Moon. However, figuring out the correlations among that ocean of data is the key to autonomous machine learning. For example, machine learning lacks an understanding of the trade-offs and mathematical limitations of relevant domains, problems, or database related techniques. This deficiency is in the fundamental theoretical framework for understanding the relationships among data, tasks, resources, and performance metrics, elements that can help us understand the matching relationship between AI and tasks.

DARPA’s “Fundamental Limits of Learning” project aims to develop methods and application rules for assessing the capability of learning system design solutions. The project will investigate mathematical frameworks that can provide quantifiable and generalizable learning measurements to design systems with good performance. In addition, the project will help characterize the fundamental limits between existing and new normative approaches to machine learning and elucidate methods for evaluating trustworthiness in a variety of applications.

2. Complex systems modeling – “Deep Purposeful Learning

Facebook has created a facial recognition technology called “DeepFace” that uses deep learning capabilities to compare two photos and see if they show the same person. Shortly thereafter, Facebook developed another technology based on “DeepFace” that could describe images for blind users. For example, if a picture shows someone cycling through the English countryside on a summer’s day, the technology recognizes it and then describes the scene by voice. Of course, in the military, deep learning systems for artificial intelligence are much more complex than “facial recognition” and “scene description” here, and modeling of complex systems is an integral part of deep learning.

DARPA’s Deep Purposeful Learning project aims to advance the modeling of complex dynamical systems using efficient information analysis and processing methods, and to achieve optimal applications of data and known physics at multiple scales. The project will use high-throughput multimodal scientific data to develop new methods for noise reduction and interpolation of stochastic time series data; generative models for predicting the trajectory, resilience, and stability of systems; and new methods for tuning the trajectory of the final state of such systems.

3. Battlefield countermeasure development – “adaptive electronic warfare behavioral learning”

Can intelligent warfare actually be achieved? There are perhaps two reasons why we are convinced of this: the first is the demand for AI technology; the second is the process of evolution of AI. For the former, we are now experiencing it, and the latter, it is not pie-in-the-sky speculation. For example, the U.S. Army’s Robotics and Autonomous Systems Strategy 2015-2040, released by the U.S. Army, sets out a series of plans including enhanced situational awareness capabilities for autonomous systems.

DARPA’s  Behavioral Learning for Adaptive Electronic Warfare  program aims to develop new machine learning algorithms and technologies that will enable rapid detection and identification of new radio threats, dynamic synthesis of new countermeasures, and accurate battle damage evaluation. These would be based on changes in wireless observations of threats,  It will play an important role in developing countermeasures as the battlefield environment changes. 

IV.  Reducing ‘loss of control’ Risk

For humans, we are accustomed to attributing the “loss of control” of “man-made objects” to accidents or malfunctions. Such as plane crashes and train collisions. Usually, when we troubleshoot such failures, we look at the manufacturing process of the plane or train for clues. The root of this is that AI is an autonomous system that is guided by judgments and probabilities that do not give a completely certain outcome, which inadvertently creates the risk of loss of control in systems that rely on AI.

1. Accountability for Malicious Acts – “Enhanced Identity Attribution

Some people may wonder, since at this stage, AI is not quite able to understand the value pursuit and cannot make multiple value trade-offs, but can only “play within itself” according to the set goals. So when the set goal is not in line with the value pursuit, will the AI do something “extremely paranoid” to accomplish the goal? The answer is yes. Back in 2005, in a self-driving test in the United States, a Volkswagen Touareg ran at a constant speed of 32-40 km/h on a desert road with four passengers wearing crash helmets. The car’s computer sensed the external environment through five sensors and controlled the steering wheel. When the car pulled into a depression, its LIDAR scanned a tree branch above the vehicle as it tilted upwards, but the autopilot system didn’t know what it was, so something went wrong and the car became “paranoid” and fell off the road and into the thorns.

DARPA’s Enhanced Attribution project aims to provide transparency into currently opaque malicious behavior by providing high-fidelity visibility into malicious behavior. The project will develop technologies and tools to control the “extreme paranoia” that can occur in artificial intelligence systems.

2. Data pollution control – “Explainable AI”

Microsoft once launched a chatbot called Tay, but it was taken offline less than a week after its launch. The reason for this was that the product expressed radical views that were not in line with mainstream values. This was unacceptable to Americans, and so Tay was quickly taken offline to prevent the situation from getting even worse. In the aftermath, Microsoft’s vice president for Research and Development, Peter Lee, responded, “We are deeply sorry for the unintended offensive and hurtful tweets from Tay, which do not represent who we are or what we stand for, nor how we designed Tay.In fact, what Tay’s downfall reflects is a problem of data pollution. Under the “data-learning algorithm-behavior” chain, it is clear that the data itself will have a key impact on the final behavior. However, because of the sheer volume of data, many times we have no control over what data is fed to the learning algorithm and therefore no way of knowing what will be the exact behavior of the AI.

DARPA’s Explainable Artificial Intelligence project aims to create new machine learning systems with the ability to explain fundamentals, describe strengths and weaknesses, and express awareness of future performance. The project will be combined with state-of-the-art human-computer interaction technologies to translate models into understandable, practical explanatory dialogues for end-users, thereby generating an updated set of methods to address the data contamination that can occur with artificial intelligence systems.

3. Safe system operation – “insight”

If we leave each AI system in an invisible sandbox, the other side systematically detects the various data and records produced by such an AI system. Once anomalies are detected, they are adjusted or shut down. Here, we can think of the sandbox as an artificially set AI boundary through which we control the development of AI. However, if perhaps one day when humans use AI they will have already decided to lose the ability to maintain tight control over a particular machine or program. It’s as if in the “man vs. machine” battle between AlphaGo and Lee Sedol, we have no control over whether it makes a good move or a bad move in every situation it encounters. In fact, the safe operation of AI systems requires a socialized system of authority and responsibility.

DARPA’s Insight program is designed to develop the ability to receive, index, and store data from multiple sources, analyze that data, and request and share relevant information with analysts and data providers. The project uses an open and standardized plug-and-play architecture to rapidly integrate existing and developing intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) technologies and sources, and an intuitive multi-user interface for timely decision making to enhance intelligence analysts’ support for real-time battlefield-aware operations, thereby facilitating the safe operation of artificial intelligence systems.

V.  Unique Features of the DARPA Innovation Mechanism

  • 1958, ARPA explored the development of a large launch vehicle, Juno V, which was later transferred to the newly formed NASA; 
  • 1959, ARPA launched the Sail Constellation project to detect nuclear explosions; 
  • 1960, ARPA and the CIA jointly funded the Corona reconnaissance satellite project, which successfully returned the first photographs; 
  • 1965, ARPA funded the Williams Corporation to develop the WR19 small turbofan engine, an improved version of which was later returned. 
  • 1965, ARPA funded Williams to develop the WR19 small turbofan engine, a modified version of which became the AGM-86 air-launched missile and the BGM-109. “Tomahawk cruise missile; 
  • 1969, the world’s first ARPA-funded network, the ARPA Network, was launched; 
  • 1971, ARPA launched the “Small Remotely Piloted Unmanned Aircraft” project for reconnaissance; 
  • 1975, DARPA launched research on manned stealth aircraft; 
  • 1977, DARPA funded the first flight of Tacit Blue, which later developed into the F-117 stealth fighter; 
  • 1982 to 1984, DARPA launched a secret program called Copper Creek Valley, which evolved into the X-30 airplane program; 
  • 1997, DARPA launched the Miniature Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (MAV) program; and 
  • 2001, DARPA launched the Advanced Short Takeoff and Vertical Landing program;
  • 2007, DARPA launched the three-year Wideband Semiconductor for Radio Frequency Applications (WBGS-RF) program; 
  • 2008, DARPA proposed the integration of speed and range for aircraft 
  • In 2008, DARPA proposed the concept of “submarine aircraft”, which combines the speed and range of an aircraft, the cruise capability of a surface ship, and the stealth capability of a submarine. 
  • From 2008 to 2018, DARPA has laid out strategic and strategic frontier technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, hypersonic vehicle technology, and quantum computing.

The report card on defense science and technology innovation above has made many curious about DARPA’s plans to promote innovation in military or civilian science and technology. At the same time, DARPA is often shrouded in secrecy because of its affiliation with the U.S. Department of Defense.

The birth of the DARPA mechanism of the United States Department of Defense is an example of successful decision-making remarkable in the history of modern defense science and technology.  In the six decades since its birth, DARPA has achieved world-renowned successes. The military technologies developed by DARPA helped the United States to occupy an undisputed position as the global leader in military science and technology research and development. Moreover, in recent years, the demonstration of these high-tech weapons and equipment in the first Gulf War, the Kosovo War and the second Gulf War launched by the United States stimulated a global revolution in military technology. The study of DARPA is a window into the decision-making mechanisms of U.S. defense science and technology, at both the theoretical and practical levels.

For DARPA, creativity is everything. At an agency that is home to some of the best minds in the business, as former DARPA Director Tony Tether said, “We can hire thousands of people to execute ideas, but the most important thing is to have the ideas first.” Maximum potential comes from mechanisms that work effectively. In summary, the DARPA model has some of the following characteristics.

First, foresight. Michael Tushman and Charles O’Reilly have suggested that successful innovative leaders create “dualistic” organizations-that is, organizations that are able to “get today’s work done efficiently and also anticipate discontinuity of tomorrow.” Organizations with such managers are not only capable of winning in the present, but do even better when they are dealing with the future.

DARPA focuses on future needs, emphasizing ideas, concepts, and tricks rather than solutions to real-world problems. The “flash of ideas” is the starting point for DARPA’s research programs, whose primary responsibility is to perceive the military’s potential future needs rather than to validate the military’s proposed real-world needs. As a result, its research on certain new technologies often precedes their practical application by decades. For example, DARPA began research in 1969 on ARPAnet, which has since evolved into what is now the international Internet.  Beginning in 1973, DARPA began research on drones, which to this day have become an integral and critical player in the U.S. military equipment system.

By its very nature, this forward-looking research uses traditional scientific research methods to study technological solutions for the realization of a possible future product, and its application prospects are strong. However, its benefits can be described as both unattainable and distant, so that its success must be backed by the sustained efforts of many professionals.

Second, independence. A certain independence in the operation of scientific research institutions can stimulate the generation of new ideas and facilitate the establishment of a broader range of contacts with the outside world. Although DARPA is part of the Department of Defense, it is independent of the military services and has a strong independence from the U.S. Navy, Army, and Air Force services as clients. It recruits visionary technicians, top scientists, and engineers into a series of small research institutions that build scientific communities with universities, the public sector, and technology companies that aim to overcome specific technical challenges. It gives them very high levels of autonomy in the use of research funds to support ideas that are likely to come to fruition. To decide whether to fund a project, a program officer usually needs to convince only two people: the head of his or her technical office and the DARPA director.

Independence frees DARPA from the traditional approach of administrative assignment, which allows it to fully exploit its foresight and stimulates the spirit of inquiry among scientists, facilitating communication and collaboration among them to achieve breakthroughs in some major, forward-looking areas of science and technology.

Third, DARPA operates in an apparently elusive manner: funding decisions are made without expert review and at the whim of program managers, following the sole principle of DARPA’s ongoing mission to support imaginative and creative, high-risk research in the interest of U.S. defense. Research.

For DARPA, it is more concerned with acumen (agile) than fairness. DARPA encourages its staff to cut funding to groups that are not making progress and to reallocate resources to groups that have more promise for technological breakthroughs. Therefore for the sake of increased efficiency in decision making, the project funding process can be done without peer review.

Erica R.H. Fuchs, Assistant Professor in the Department of Engineering and Public Policy at Carnegie Mellon University (USA), points out in “Successful Cloning of the DARPA Model” that the most significant success factor of the DARPA model is its unique system of program officers. In scientific research, the quality of the researcher determines the pace and level of program implementation, and acumen literally forms the basis for implementing and executing the research program.

Fourth, effectiveness and efficiency. Effectiveness and efficiency are dimensions that every research institution must take into account. Will the product developed advance the technology in the relevant field? Can its research be used to maximum advantage at the lowest possible cost? In this respect, DARPA seems to be unique.

DARPA provides funding to university researchers, companies that are just starting out and steadily gaining a foothold in the industry, and industry groups, among others.  The technology results it obtains on many of its projects can only be transferred to the military services and industry to eventually lead to products that support the operational capabilities of the U.S. military. Therefore its ultimate goal is to advance applied technology. This mission naturally extends to helping companies commercialize their products and so the agency provides far more than funding to companies.

At the same time, through data mining analysis to measure and analyze the scientific literature. , if DARPA finds that two scientists are working on the same problem at the same time, but taking different technical routes, they will be funded separately, thus preventing potential duplication of research between the two in the future. Both avoid the complicated funding application process, and each side gets what it wants. If only one of the two ends up with a DARPA grant, both must share their research ideas and work progress at a workshop organized by DARPA. Thus DARPA fosters a community of researchers, promotes coordination and collaboration among community members, and improves overall research efficiency.

Fifth, risk tolerance. Development and risk are often inseparable, and thus the trade-off between the two is often difficult. Esther Dyson Dyson (Esther Dyson) once warned readers of the Harvard Business Review: “You must be willing to take risks, to experiment, to look at failures dialectically. My credo is, ‘Even when you make a mistake, it has to be a new mistake.’ There’s no shame in making mistakes. Just learn from them and don’t make the same mistakes again. What I’ve learned, I’ve learned from my mistakes.”

In the field of innovation, policymakers must recognize the close relationship between risk and reward. For DARPA, its emphasis on “high-risk, high-reward” research has led to tolerance of failure, open learning and a culture of risk-taking. It emphasizes risk management rather than risk avoidance. As a result, it encourages personal responsibility and initiative in its organizational, management and personnel policies. Project managers have a high degree of flexibility in defining projects.  A key decision at the top of DARPA is to select project managers who are risk-taking and driven by innovative ideas.

However, “high risk” does not equate to “high cost”; DARPA allows projects to fail, but its rigorous program review mechanism reduces the high cost to some extent. This model is very similar to a technique used in poker. A savvy poker player knows that if he dwells on a dead hand, he can’t expect to eventually win, so he stops betting, gives up the hand, and waits for the cards to be dealt again. If the hand is good, he will continue on, raising the stakes. Whenever he draws a new card, he always judges whether it’s worth continuing the hand. And his rule is to get out of it as quickly and as cheaply as possible once he realizes that the hand is bound to be lost. Similarly, DARPA’s practice of terminating a project or experiment just after it has been shown to be “unworkable” reduces the cost of its failure somewhat by “calling it quits” quickly.

Sixth, broad connectedness. The spark of an epiphany is small, but, by connecting extensively with the outside world, it can be gathered from the small to the large, eventually producing a breakthrough innovation. Morse came up with the idea of dots and dotted lines and used them to transmit four-digit codes, but it was only in working with Weir that he came up with the idea of transmitting letters based on the difference between dots and lines.

To improve decision making and promote technological innovation and translation, DARPA has extensive external contacts. It meets regularly with DoD civilian officials and leaders to learn about issues that need to be studied; conducts regular visits and research to military bases, commands, training centers, and other military agencies to gather information; consulting widely with senior military leaders to learn about the issues that concern them most and are difficult to address. DARPA studies the latest military operational war stories to identify weaknesses and problems that limit the capabilities of the U.S. military; discusses technical developments in relevant areas of expertise with the many components involved in national security, both inside and outside the military, and explores the feasibility of innovative approaches to the challenges faced.


DARPA管理机制特点及智能化发展

2019-04-26 14:53:53

外刊2019年3月综述

作为美国国防科技创新的摇篮,DARPA的职责一般都是从事那些有潜在军事用途而又未被陆、海、空军列入现时议程的基础研究。尽管不常显山露水,但无论是武装到牙齿的美军,还是日常生活中的各种新科技,从军事领域到民用领域,DARPA都一直扮演着一个极为重要的角色,是一面我们推进国防科技创新的难得的镜子。

一、冷战中诞生的创新孵化器

1957年10月4日,苏联发射人类第一颗人造卫星“Sputnik-1”。卫星直径58厘米,重83.6公斤(约184磅)。由于当时冷战的特殊背景,美苏两国都密切关注彼此“重要敌人”军备动向,而“Sputnik-1”的成功发射无疑给美国带来了巨大的震撼。第二天,美国《纽约时报》即以醒目的0.5英寸大写字母横贯首页刊印:“时速18000英里环绕地球 无线电信号确认卫星通过合众国上空轨道”。英国《曼彻斯特卫报》也报道,“‘Sputnik-1’人造卫星已明白无误地显示,莫斯科现在可以制造能够攻击世界任何既定目标的洲际弹道导弹了,显然,俄国人在外空领域已经取得了极大的领先地位,美国的核力量优势从此将成为历史,这是令自由世界倍感痛苦但又不得不接受的残酷事实。”

同日,苏联在其官方报纸《真理报》上也宣布了“Sputnik-1”号人造卫星发射成功的消息:“苏联科学技术获得的新的杰出胜利的消息昨天轰动了全世界。作为我国各科学研究所和设计院极其紧张工作的回报,我们创造了世界上第一颗人造地球卫星。现在这颗卫星以每秒约八千公尺速度绕着地球作椭圆形运转,绕行一周为时一小时三十六点二分钟……”对于这颗人造卫星对美国的含义,苏联的《真理报》也不忘借机嘲讽一番:“现在难道不是美国统治集团走出自己钻进去的死胡同的时候吗?要知道,是他们发起了军备竞赛,宣称他们垄断了原子武器。但是他们的算盘落空了。他们继续军备竞赛,高叫美国独占的氢弹,他们的算盘再次打乱了。他们拒绝苏联的裁军建议,吹嘘自己的火箭武器。这次他们又遭到了失败,因为苏联已经制成了洲际弹道火箭。”

为避免再次出现此类对美国造成被动局面的技术突袭,同时确保其自身的技术优势,1958年2月,美国政府宣布成立高级研究计划局(Advanced Research Projects Agency,简称ARPA),即今天美国国防部高级研究计划局(DARPA)的前身。作为美国国防部的直属机构,DARPA始终坚持其“保持美国技术领先地位,防止潜在对手意想不到的超越”宗旨,在推动创新具有颠覆性影响的新技术和新能力方面做了大量探索性工作,包括互联网、GPS、隐形战机、无人机、高超声速飞机、智能语音助手等在内的诸多领域,都取得了重要突破性科技创新,为美国保持军事技术领先地位奠定了坚实基础,并成为全球创新机构眼中开展前沿性、探索性及颠覆性研究的标杆。

近年来,DARPA持续资助人工智能领域的相关研究。由于防务战略研究的特殊性,尽管只有一定的借鉴性价值,不能照搬照抄或简单对表,但从其公开发布的技术报告中,我依然可以窥见到其有关人工智能技术的探索动向,以及基于战略前沿科技探索的智能化战争理解。

二、面向智能化战争的科技创新

美国军事硬实力和战略威慑力,在很大程度上依赖于其源源不断的科技创新能力,尤其是对战略前沿技术的敏锐捕抓。近几年,DARPA加大了对智能科技的关注与升级,布局的一系列科研探索项目,将标靶瞄向了未来智能化重构的战场。

(一)智能科技的升级

1.透明计算技术——“透明计算”

当计算达到极致所得出的结果仍然只是接近目标而非绝对正确时,计算的智能化就是如何在追求无限近似目标条件下“揭开黑箱”,从而设计出最优方案的过程。然而,由于人们对于计算机系统内部运行的认知就如同黑箱,几乎无从看到具体运行过程。这就极大地限制了人们充分理解网络操作的能力,自然也就无法检测并应对某些重大网络威胁,尤其是某些机理更复杂、时间更持续的网络威胁。

DARPA的“透明计算”项目旨在保证系统性能损耗最低的前提下,通过提供高保真度的可见性,使目前不透明的计算机系统变得更加透明。透明计算主要支持科学研究和实验所涉及的相关计算模型及体系研究,以及推理计算和通信。该项目将开发用于记录并保存所有系统的要素/组件(输入、软件模块及进程等)来源的技术,以动态跟踪交互和网络系统组件间的因果关系,在端对端系统操作中整合与分析这些关系。与此同时,“透明计算”还将开发多层数据收集体系和分析/执行驱动器构成的基本技术和实验原型,以实现主动执行的理想化策略(允许/禁止交互)、近距离实时入侵检测及论证分析,并为计算技术的升级带来新的起点。

2.终极搜索系统——“Memex深网搜索”

有人曾对美国的谷歌做过一个实验,在谷歌搜索栏中输入“the 10 deepest lakes in the U.S”(美国最深的10个湖),而搜索引擎将优先展示基于这些单词或者词组权重最高的句子和网站。针对该实验,谷歌的解释是,搜索引擎还不能明白输入的这句话是一个问题。此外,搜索算法有时还会漏掉不能被标准搜索引擎检索的网络信息,造成跨页共享内容的丢失。由此可见,即便是表现非常出色的网络搜索引擎,也依然存在着亟待解决的技术难题。

DARPA的“Memex深网搜索”项目旨在创造更好的信息交互及分享方法,从而使用户能够快速、全面地组织并搜索与个人兴趣有关的信息子集。深网搜索是一种补充人类记忆的模拟计算技术,它可通过存储和自动交叉引用用户的所有书籍、记录和其他信息以达到快速、灵活地搜索大量信息,进而高效地获得相关见解的功能。该项目将开发远超当前水平,并提供完善内容探索、信息提取、信息检索、用户协作及其他关键搜索功能的先进在线搜索功能机制。

3.精准信息平台——“面向任务的弹性云”

尽管美国有关“云战略”——在未来战争中将信息技术从传统工作站转移至云计算环境的规划早已提出,但如何将敏感数据和计算压缩至云计算系统时的安全性问题仍未完全得以解决。这其中的关键问题就在于,传统安全解决方案中的国家周边防御重点无法覆盖现在的“孤岛”安全。而在云环境中,它将会被进一步边缘化,从而在高速网络环境中构成高度集中的同类主机,且在有限周边防御地区的主机内无需内部检查,而拥有绝对的可信度。

DARPA的“面向任务的弹性云”项目旨在通过开发云计算中的攻击检测、诊断和相应技术,解决某些潜在的安全挑战。为此,该项目将着重研究完成分配的云防御,创建共享态势感知和动态信任模型,将可管理和可分配至任务的多样性引入其他同类云系统中,开发任务感知适应网络技术。同时,该项目还将与美国国防部的“弹性、自适应、安全主机的全新设计”计划同时进行,以限制主机的安全漏洞。

(二)学习能力的提高

华盛顿大学计算机科学教授普德罗·多明戈斯曾指出:“如果机器人掌握了人类除学习以外的所有能力,人类很快就会抛弃它。”但正是由于人工智能的自主学习功能,即人们无需事先以概念的形式告诉它应该怎样做,它就能随着事情的进展而获得“规则”,并逐渐形成能够改善其表现的策略。在这里,人脑与神经网络的不同在于,人脑中的学习能力增强是一个生物化学过程,而神经网络中的学习能力增强另外一种发生机制,即通过修改其自身代码,以在复杂情况下找到输入和输出之间或原因和结果之间的联系。

1.理论框架构建——“学习的根本局限性”

据国际数据公司估测,目前网上在线数据量约为4.4泽字节,而如果能将这些数据输入ipadAir(苹果超薄平板电脑)中,那么产生的堆栈将能够覆盖地球到月球距离的2/3。然而,如何找出数据海洋背后的关联性,则成为机器自主学习的关键。例如,机器学习缺乏对相关领域、问题或数据库相关技术的权衡和数学限制的理解。而这种缺陷正是了解数据、任务、资源和绩效度量之间关系的基本理论框架,这些要素可以帮助我们理解人工智能与任务之间的匹配关系。

DARPA的“学习的根本局限性”项目旨在开发学习系统设计方案能力评估方法及应用规则。该项目将研究能够提供可量化及可归纳性学习测定结果的数学框架,进而设计出具备好性能的系统。此外,该项目还将有助于描述现有的和新型机器学习规范做法之间的基本限度特征,并阐明多种应用中可信度的评价方法。

2.复杂系统建模——“深度有目的学习”

Facebook(脸谱网)曾创建了一种称之为“DeepFace”的脸部识别技术,该技术可凭借深度学习能力,对比两张照片并查看其显示的是否同一人。而在此后不久,Facebook又在“DeepFace”的基础上开发了另一种技术,该技术能够为盲人用户描述图像。例如,一张图片上显示的是某人在一个夏日骑自行车穿过英国乡间小路,该技术在识别后便能用语音将这一情景描述出来。当然,在军事领域,人工智能的深度学习系统要比这里的“面部识别”和“场景描述”复杂得多,其复杂系统建模也成为深度学习中不可缺少的一环。

DARPA的“深度有目的学习”项目旨在利用高效的信息分析和处理方法,推进复杂动态系统建模,并在多个尺度上实现数据和已知物理学的最佳应用。该项目将使用高通量多模态科学数据开发如下内容:降噪和内插随机时间序列数据的新方法;用于预测系统轨迹、弹性和稳定性的产生式模型;调整这种系统最终态势轨迹的新方法。

3.战场对策制定——“自适应电子战行为学习”

智能化战争究竟能否实现?为何我们对此深信不疑,原因或许有两点:一是人工智能技术的需求牵引;二是人工智能的自我进化。对于前者,我们正在经历,而对于后者,也并非天马行空般地猜测。如美陆军发布的《2015-2040机器人和自主系统战略》就制定了增强自主系统态势感知能力在内的一系列计划。

DARPA的“自适应电子战行为学习”项目旨在通过开发新的机器学习算法和技术,将能够快速检测和鉴定新的无线电威胁、动态合成新的对策,并能基于对威胁的无线观测改变提供精确的战损评价,这对于战场环境变化过程中对策的制定将发挥重要作用。

(三)失控风险的控制

对于人类而言,我们习惯于将“人造物”的“失控”归结为事故或者是故障。如飞机失事及列车相撞等。而通常我们在排除这类故障时,会从飞机或火车的制造环节中寻找线索。但人工智能却会改变我们这一观念,其根源就在于人工智能是一种自主系统,其指导下的行为源于一种判断和概率,而并不能给出完全确定的结果,这也就在不经意间给依赖人工智能的系统带来失控的风险。

1.恶意行为问责——“增强身份归属”

有人也许会产生这样的疑问,既然在现阶段人工智能还不太能理解价值追求,不能完成多元价值取舍,而只能按照设定的目标“自我发挥”。那么当设定的目标与价值追求不符时,人工智能是否会为完成目标而做出“极度偏执”的事情呢?答案是肯定的。早在2005年,在美国的一次自动驾驶试验中,一辆大众途锐以每小时32-40公里的速度匀速跑在一条沙漠公路上,车里坐着4位头戴防撞头盔的乘客。车里的计算机通过5个传感器感知外部环境,并控制方向盘。而当这辆汽车驶进一个洼地时,由于汽车向上倾斜,它的激光雷达扫描到了位于车辆上方的树枝,但自动驾驶系统并不清楚这是什么,因此出现了异常,车辆“偏执”地跌出道路而陷到荆棘之中。

DARPA的“增强身份归属”项目就旨在通过使恶意行为具有高保真度的可视性,对目前不透明的恶意行为进行透明化。该项目将开发相关技术和工具,以控制人工智能系统可能出现的“极度偏执”行为。

2.数据污染控制——“可解释人工智能”

微软曾经推出了一款名为“Tay”的聊天机器人,但这款产品在上线不到一周就被迫下线了。原因就在于这款产品表达出一些与主流价值观不吻合的偏激观点。对此,美国人接受不了,而为了避免事态恶化,“Tay”很快被下线了。事后,微软主管研发副总裁彼得·李解回应道:“我们对‘Tay’无意的攻击性以及伤人的话语深表歉意,‘Tay’的言行不代表我们就是这个样子,也不代表我们支持它所说的那些观点,并且有意把它设计成了那个样子。”实际上,“Tay”下线事件所反映的是数据污染的问题。在“数据—学习类算法—行为”的链条之下,数据本身显然会对最终的行为产生关键影响。然而,由于数据量极其庞大,许多时候我们无法控制什么数据会被输入给学习类算法,因此也就无法知道人工智能的准确行为。

DARPA的“可解释人工智能”项目旨在创建具有解释基本原理、描述优势和劣势以及表达对未来表现认识能力的新型机器学习系统。该项目将与最先进的人机交互技术结合,以便将模型转换到最终用户可理解、实用的解释对话中,从而生成一套更新的方法,以解决人工智能系统可能出现的数据污染问题。

3.系统安全运转——“洞察力”

如果我们让每种人工智能系统都处在一个无形的沙盒中,另一面则系统地检测这样一种人工智能系统所产出的各种数据和记录。一旦发现异常,就对其进行调整或关闭。在这里,我们可以认为沙盒是人为设置的人工智能边界,我们通过沙盒控制人工智能的发展。然而,或许人类在使用人工智能的那一天就已经决定了对特定机器或程序失去严密控制的能力。这就好比在AlphaGo与李世石的“人机大战”中,我们无法控制它每遇到一种情形是出好棋还是差棋。事实上,人工智能系统的安全运转需要的是一种社会化的权责控制系统。

DARPA的“洞察力”项目旨在开发通过接收、索引及存储源于多种渠道的数据,并对这些数据进行分析,同时向分析师和数据提供商请求并共享相关信息。该项目采用开放标准化的即插即用架构,可以快速集成现有的和正在开发中的情报、监视和侦查(ISR)技术和来源,并及时做出决策的直观多用户界面,以强化情报分析师对战场实时感知作战的支持,从而有利于人工智能系统的安全运转。

三、DARPA创新机制的独特之处

1958年,ARPA探索大型运载火箭“朱诺Ⅴ”的发展,后移交新成立的美国航空航天局(NASA);1959年,ARPA启动用于探测核爆炸的“船帆座”项目;1960年,ARPA与美国中央情报局联合资助的“日冕”侦察卫星项目成功返回了首批照片;1965年,ARPA资助威廉姆公司开发了WR19小型涡扇发动机,该发动机的改进型后来成为了AGM-86空射导弹和BGM-109“战斧”巡航导弹的动力装置;1969年,由ARPA资助的全球第一个网络“ARPA网”问世;1971年,ARPA启动了用于侦察的“小型遥控无人机”项目;1975年,DARPA启动了有人驾驶隐形飞机的研究;1977年,DARPA资助的验证机“海弗蓝”首飞成功,后发展成为F-117隐形战斗机;1982至1984年,DARPA开展了一个名为“铜溪谷”的秘密项目,后演进为“X-30”空天飞机项目;1997年,DARPA启动了微型无人机(MAV)项目;2001年,DARPA启动了“先进短距起飞和垂直着陆”项目;2007年,DARPA开启了为期三年的“射频应用宽禁带半导体”(WBGS-RF)计划;2008年,DARPA提出了融飞机的速度与航程、水面舰艇的游弋能力及潜艇的隐身能力于一体的“潜水飞机”概念。从2008到2018,近十年来DARPA更是抓紧布局了人工智能、大数据、云计算及高超声速飞行器技术、量子计算等战略战略前沿技术研发。

长期以来,正是在上述这些国防科技创新成绩单辉映下,人们对有关DARPA在促进军用或民用科技创新方面的计划,倍感好奇。与此同时,由于DARPA隶属于美国国防部的原因,这一机构又经常笼罩着一层神秘的面纱。

应该说,在现代国防科技发展史上,美国国防部DARPA机制的诞生,是一个成功的决策范例。在DARPA诞生后的六十年时间里,它取得了举世瞩目的成就。由DARPA开发的军事技术,不仅帮助美国无可争议地占据了全球军事科技研发“执牛耳”的地位,而且,近年来由于美国在其发动的第一次海湾战争、科索沃战争、第二次海湾战争中对这些高科技武器装备的展示,更激发了全球范围内军事技术革命浪潮。对DARPA的研究,不论从理论层面还是现实层面来说,都是一个透视美国国防科技决策机制的窗口。

对于DARPA来说,创意就是一切。在这个聚集着最顶尖人才的机构,正如曾任DARPA局长的托尼.特瑟所言:“我们可以雇佣成千上万的人来执行想法,但是最重要的是先有想法。”潜能的最大发挥来源于机制的有效运行。总结起来,DARPA的模式有如下一些特点:

其一,前瞻性。迈克尔·图什曼和查理斯·奥赖利曾提出,成功的创新领导者会创造出“双性”组织——也就是说,这种组织能够“高效地将今天的工作处理妥当,还能预见明天的非连续性”。拥有这种管理者的组织不仅在当前有能力胜出,甚至在它们应付未来的时候也能技高一筹。

DARPA着眼于未来需求,强调出创意、出概念、出奇招,而不是出对于现实问题的解决方案,“思想的闪光”是DARPA研究项目的起点,其主要责任是感知军方的未来潜在需求,而不是去验证军方提出的现实需求。因此,它对某些新技术的研究往往比其实际应用提前数十年。例如,DARPA从1969年开始进行ARPAnet的研究,而ARPAnet后来逐步发展成为了现在的国际互联网;从1973年开始,DARPA开始进行无人机方面的研究,时至今日,无人机已经成为美军装备体系中不可或缺的关键角色。

从本质上讲,这种前瞻性的研究使用传统的科学研究方法,研究为实现某种未来产品可能的技术方案,其应用前景是强烈的。但是,它的收益既可用遥不可及来形容,又可用遥遥可期来概述,因此,它成功的背后必然得有许多专业人才的前赴后继的持续努力。

其二,独立性。科研机构的某种独立运转,能够激发其新思想的产生,并有利于与外界建立更加广泛的联系。虽然DARPA归属于国防部,但却独立于各军种,与美国海、陆、空军种都是客户关系,具有很强的独立性。它招聘富有远见的技术人员、顶级科学家和工程师,组成一系列小型科研机构,为那些旨在攻克具体技术难关的大学、公共部门和科技企业搭建起科学共同体,并在研究经费使用方面赋予他们非常高的自主支配权,支持有可能实现的想法。一位项目官员要决定是否资助某个项目,通常只需要说服两个人:所在技术办公室的主管和DARPA局长。

独立性使DARPA摆脱了行政指派的传统方式,这就能够充分发挥它的预见性,并激发科学家的探索精神,促进他们之间的交流和合作,从而在一些重大的、前瞻的科技领域取得突破性进展。

其三,敏锐性。DARPA的运营,看上去似乎捉摸不定:资金支持决策不需经专家评审,项目管理人员凭个人意念即可自主决断,唯一遵从的原则就是DARPA始终不渝的使命——支持富于想象和创造性、高风险且符合美国防务利益的研究。

对于DARPA来说,相较于公平性,它更关注的是敏锐性(agile)。它招聘的很多项目主管需要具备很高的素质,他们必须拥有项目投资的丰富经验,对于科研项目的长期应用远景有很敏锐的嗅觉,他们到处寻找潜在的好项目和好人才。DARPA鼓励其工作人员削减没有取得进展的团体的经费,并将资源重新分配给更有希望实现技术突破的团体;而且,出于提高决策效率等方面的考虑,其项目资助过程可以不采用同行评议方式。

美国卡内基梅隆大学(Carnegie Mellon University)工程与公共政策系助理教授Erica R.H.Fuchs在《成功地克隆DARPA模式》中指出,DARPA模式最主要成功因素是其独特的项目官制度。在科研工作中,科研工作者的素质决定了计划实施的进度和水平,而敏锐性又实实在在地构成了落实与执行科研计划的基础。

其四,效益性和效率性。效益性和效率性是每一个科研机构都必须纳入考量的维度。研制的产品能否推进相关领域技术的发展?它的研究能否在尽可能低的成本下发挥最大优势?在这个方面,DARPA似乎有其独到之处。

DARPA将资金提供给大学的研究人员、刚刚起步和在业内稳步立足的公司,以及工业集团等机构,由于其在诸多项目上获得的技术成果只有向军种和工业部门转移才能最终形成产品,进而形成美军的作战能力,可见它的最终目标是为了推动应用技术的进展,任务便自然地延伸到帮助企业把其产品商业化阶段,因此该机构提供给公司的资助远远超过资助经费。

同时,DARPA通过科学计量学指标的数据挖掘分析,若发现有两位科学家同时在攻克同一问题,但采取的技术路线不同,就会对他们分别给予资助,从而防止两人今后潜在的重复研究,而两人也省去了繁复的经费申请过程,双方各得其所。若最后两人中只有一人拿到了DARPA的资助,双方都必须在DARPA组织的研讨会上与大家分享研究思路与工作进展。通过这种方式,DARPA培育出一个研究者社区,推动了社区成员间的协调合作,提高了整体的科研效率。

其五,风险宽容性。发展与风险往往难解难分,因而,对两者的取舍常常让人为难。埃丝特.戴森(Esther Dyson)曾告诫《哈佛商业评论》的读者:“你必须乐于面对风险,乐于进行试验,辩证地看待失败之处。我的信条是:‘即便犯错误也必须是新错误。’犯错误没什么羞耻。只要从中吸取教训不再犯同样的错误就好。我学到的东西,都是我从错误中获得的。”

在创新领域,决策者必须认识到风险与回报之间的密切关系。对于DARPA来说,它强调所进行的是“高风险、高回报”研究,因此它容忍失败,实行开放式学习,形成了一种风险承担的文化。它强调管理风险,而不是逃避风险。因此,它在组织、管理和人事政策方面鼓励个人责任和首创精神,并在项目界定上具有高度的灵活性。DARPA高层的一个重要决策就是筛选出那些勇于承担风险、创新思想驱动的项目主管。

但是,“高风险”并不等价于“高代价”。DARPA允许项目失败,但其严格的项目评审机制在一定程度上又降低了高昂的代价。这种模式与赌牌的一种技巧十分相似。一个精明的牌手知道如果他纠缠着一手死局的牌,就别指望最终能赢,于是他停住下注,放弃该局,等着重新发牌。如果牌势很号,他将继续下去,提高赌注。每当他摸到新牌,他总会判断是否值得继续这一局。而他的原则是一旦发现牌局必输无疑,就尽可能最快、最低代价地从中脱身。同理,DARPA在一个项目或试验刚刚显示出“行不通”时就终止它,这种迅速“收手”的做法在一定程度上能够降低其失败的代价。

其六,广泛联系性。一个顿悟的火花是渺小的,但是,通过与外界的广泛联系,就可以由小聚大,最终产生突破性的创新。莫尔斯想到了点和虚线的创意,并将它们用于传送四位数字码,但是,只有在和韦尔合作的过程中,他才想到了根据点和线的区别来传送字母。

为提高决策水平,推动技术创新和转化,DARPA与外界有着广泛的联系,定期与国防部的文职官员和领导人会面,了解需要研究的问题;定期对军事基地、司令部、训练中心和其他军事机构进行参访、调研,收集情况;广泛征求高级军事领导人的意见,了解他们最关心且难以解决的问题:研究最新的军事行动战例,找出限制美军能力的薄弱环节和问题;与军内外涉及国家安全的诸多部门共同研讨相关专业领域的技术发展问题,探索以创新性方法解决所面临挑战的可行性。

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PRC Taiwan Office Liu Jieyi: Party’s Strategy for Taiwan Issue in the New Era

This article appeared on the Aisixiang website on December 1, 2022. You can view the Aisixiang website machine-translated into English via Google Translate. You can click through to articles if you like and those articles will also be translated. Be careful; machine translation is not always reliable.

Aisixiang also has a collection of articles on Taiwan by Chinese officials and scholars; via Google Translate here. On the left hand side of this page you will find an outline of the Taiwan issue from the PRC Mainland perspective.

I added formatting and broke up some very long sentences in this article to enhance readability.

The Wikipedia article on the Chinese Dream of national rejuvenation, a concept that appears often in Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping’s speeches as it does here below, is a useful reference.

As I read through checking my translations I realized that the same word in Chinese means to unify and to re-unify: 統一 tǒngyī so I followed convention on Taiwan issue and used re-unify. Some would argue that Chiang Kai-shek led the Republic of China forces in retreat to Taiwan before the PRC was founded and then the Mao rebels/PRC – Chiang Kai-shek old regime/ROC became a frozen conflict as the result of the Korean War and the US Navy making a PRC takeover of Taiwan impossible over the short term. So one could argue unify rather than re-unify. But I decided not to run down that rabbit hole.


Liu Jieyi: Adhering to the Party’s overall strategy for resolving the Taiwan issue in the New Era

刘结一:坚持贯彻新时代党解决台湾问题的总体方略

by Liu Jieyi, director of the Taiwan Work Office of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council.

    General Secretary Xi Jinping’s report to the 20th Party Congress stresses upholding the implementation of the Party’s overall strategy for resolving the Taiwan issue in the new era. This provides the fundamental guidelines and action guidelines for doing a good work on Taiwan in the new era. It is of great and far-reaching significance for the new march to advance the process of reunification with the motherland.

   1. The Party’s overall strategy for resolving the Taiwan issue in the new era is a valuable crystallization and fundamental guide for the Party’s work on Taiwan since the 18th National Congress, which has been guided by righteousness and innovation.

  Resolving the Taiwan issue and achieving the complete reunification of the motherland is a historical task to which the Party is firmly committed. It is the common aspiration of all China’s sons and daughters, and an inevitable requirement for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. For a long time, our Party has struggled unremittingly and made great efforts to achieve this goal. Since the 18th Party Congress, socialism with Chinese characteristics has entered a new era. The Chinese nation has embarked on a great leap from standing up, to getting rich and becoming strong. China is now more capable, more confident and closer than ever to achieving the complete reunification of the motherland. At the same time, the pace of unprecedented changes in the world situation are accelerating. Since the United States is intensifying its efforts to “using Taiwan to control China”, the Taiwan issue has been placed in a new strategic environment. General Secretary Xi Jinping has integrated the big picture: the overall situation of the strategy for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and the unprecedented changes in the world over the past century, grasped the historical trends and changes of the times, enriched and developed the theory of national reunification and the policy towards Taiwan. He shaped the Party’s overall strategy for solving the Taiwan issue in the new era, guided the work on Taiwan to overcome difficulties and written a chapter on Taiwan in the ten years of great changes in the new era.

  We have made new breakthroughs in promoting cross-Strait political exchanges, achieving the first meeting between leaders across the Taiwan Strait since 1949 and direct dialogue and communication, setting a historic benchmark for the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations. The Government has made new efforts to deepen cross-Strait integration and development, share development opportunities with Taiwan compatriots on the mainland, implement equal treatment, and introduce a series of policy initiatives to benefit Taiwan compatriots and create an overlapping effect. This aimed at enhancing the well-being of compatriots on both sides of the Strait; effectively deal with changes in the situation in the Taiwan Strait and the risks and challenges, and resolutely counteract those pressing for “Taiwan independence”. The Government has also been working together to realize the ambition of the Chinese dream, to stimulate the sense of identity and pride of Taiwan compatriots in being participants and beneficiaries of national rejuvenation and in being upright Chinese, and to join them together with these majestic forces striving for national reunification.

  • The most distinctive feature of the 10 years of work on Taiwan in the new era is the firm grasp of the dominant initiative in cross-strait relations.
  • The most crucial factor is the historic achievements and changes in the cause of the Party and the state. The most important revelation is that the time, momentum and righteousness of reunification are always on the side of the motherland.
  • The most fundamental guarantee is the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core and the Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era scientific guidance.

   2. A deep understanding of the rich connotation and significance of the Party’s overall strategy for resolving the Taiwan issue in the new era

  Since the 18th Party Congress, General Secretary Xi Jinping has made a series of important statements on Taiwan work, given a series of important instructions and instructions, and put forward a series of new concepts, ideas and strategies. The 19th Party Congress further established the basic strategy of adhering to “one country, two systems” and promoting the reunification of the motherland. General Secretary Xi Jinping, at the commemorative meeting on the 40th anniversary of the publication of the “Letter to Taiwan Compatriots“, systematically declared the major policy propositions for advancing the peaceful reunification of the motherland in the new era. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee clearly adhered to and improved the system of “one country, two systems” and promoted the peaceful reunification of the motherland. The Sixth Plenary Session of the Nineteenth Central Committee of the CPC put forward for the first time the Party’s overall strategy for resolving the Taiwan issue in the new era.

  The Party’s overall strategy for resolving the Taiwan issue in the new era is rich in connotation, logical and systematic. It profoundly answers the fundamental guarantee, historical orientation, strategic thinking, general policy, political foundation, practical approach, fundamental impetus, inevitable requirements, external conditions, strategic support and other major theoretical and practical issues for advancing the reunification of the motherland in the new journey. It embodies General Secretary Xi Jinping’s strong mission, deep national sentiments, his making clear the standpoint of the people, broad historical vision, dialectical strategic thinking and strong spirit of struggle has pointed out the direction for resolving the Taiwan issue and achieving the complete reunification of the motherland in the new era. We must uphold it and implement it fully in the new era.

  First, we must uphold the centralized and unified leadership of the Party Central Committee in its work on Taiwan. This is the fundamental guarantee of unity. General Secretary Xi Jinping has pointed out that the overall leadership of the Party, especially the centralized and unified leadership of the Party, must be upheld and that the Party’s leadership must be implemented in all areas and aspects of the Party and the State’s undertakings. As the work on Taiwan is an important part of the Party and the State’s cause, it is necessary to implement the strengthening of the centralized and unified leadership of the Party into all aspects and processes of the work on Taiwan. Further clarify where the strengths, keys and fundamentals of good work with Taiwan lie. We need to grasp the relationship between the Party’s overall leadership and give full play of the enthusiasm of all parties. We must translate the advantages of the political system into the effectiveness of work on Taiwan, consolidate the national pattern of work on Taiwan as a whole, and create stronger synergies to advance the great cause of reunification.

  Secondly, we insist on promoting the reunification of the motherland in the process of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. This is the historical orientation of reunification. General Secretary Xi Jinping has pointed out that national rejuvenation and national reunification are a major trend, a major righteousness and a popular aspiration. National reunification is a historical necessity for the Chinese nation to move towards its great rejuvenation. The Taiwan issue, which arose out of national weakness and chaos, will certainly be resolved with national rejuvenation. Further clarify the important position of national reunification in the overall situation of national rejuvenation strategy. We must grasp the relationship between national reunification and national rejuvenation, grasp the historical momentum, master the historical initiative and inject more active spiritual strength into the great task of promoting reunification.

  Thirdly, we insist on resolving the Taiwan issue on the basis of the development and progress of the motherland. That is the strategic thinking behind reunification. General Secretary Xi Jinping has pointed out that, fundamentally, the key factor in determining the direction of cross-Strait relations is the development and progress of the motherland. We must maintain the momentum of our own development while adopting the right policies and measures to do a good job in Taiwan. Further clarify the necessary and sufficient conditions for resolving the Taiwan issue. We must grasp the relationship between developing hard and soft power, put the development of the country and the nation at the base of our own strength, run our own affairs, continue to enhance our influence, attractiveness and appeal to Taiwan, and lay a stronger foundation for advancing the great cause of reunification.

  Fourthly, we adhere to the basic policy of “peaceful reunification and one country, two systems”. This is the general policy of reunification. General Secretary Xi Jinping has pointed out that the national reunification we seek is not only a formal reunification, but more importantly, a spiritual unity between compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. “Peaceful reunification and one country, two systems” is the basic policy for resolving the Taiwan issue and the best way to achieve cross-Strait reunification, which is in the best interest of compatriots on both sides of the Strait and the Chinese nation. We are willing to create a wide space for peaceful reunification and to explore the “two systems” Taiwan proposal. We will further clarify the connotations and forms of high-quality reunification. We must grasp the relationship between “one country” and “two systems”, be firm in our institutional confidence, and continue to open up new horizons for “one country, two systems” in our practical exploration, so as to provide a more complete institutional guarantee for the reunification process. We will continue to open up new horizons for “one country, two systems” in our practical exploration, and provide more complete institutional safeguards for the reunification project.

  Fifthly, we should adhere to the one-China principle and the 1992 Consensus. This is the political basis for reunification. General Secretary Xi Jinping has pointed out that the one-China principle is the political foundation of cross-Straits relations. The 1992 Consensus, which embodies the one-China principle, is the key to ensuring the peaceful development of cross-Straits relations. On this basis, we are willing to engage in dialogue and communication with various parties, groups and individuals in Taiwan on cross-Strait political issues and the peaceful reunification of the motherland, and to promote democratic consultations on cross-Strait relations and the future of the nation among representative individuals elected by political parties and sectors on both sides of the Strait. Further clarify the basis and modalities for discussing and discussing reunification together. It is necessary to grasp the relationship between firm principles and flexible strategies, adhere to the one-China principle, conduct extensive dialogue and consultation, and accumulate a broader social consensus for advancing the great cause of reunification.

  Sixth, we insist on promoting the peaceful and integrated development of cross-Straits relations. This is the practical path to reunification. General Secretary Xi Jinping has pointed out that the peaceful development of cross-Straits relations is the right path to maintain peace across the Taiwan Straits, promote common development and benefit compatriots on both sides of the Straits, and it is also the bright path to peaceful reunification. We must deepen cross-strait integration and development, take the lead in sharing development opportunities with Taiwan compatriots, provide equal treatment, expand and deepen cross-strait exchanges and cooperation, grow the Chinese economy, jointly promote Chinese culture and build a cross-strait community of destiny. Further clarify the path to peaceful reunification. It is necessary to grasp the relationship between peaceful development, integrated development and peaceful reunification, enhance expectations and momentum for reunification, achieve a high degree of unity in the process and purpose of reunification, and provide more adequate conditions for advancing the great cause of reunification.

  Seventh, we must insist on uniting with our compatriots in Taiwan and winning the hearts and minds of the people of Taiwan. This is the fundamental motivation for reunification. General Secretary Xi Jinping has pointed out that we should uphold the concept of “one family across the Taiwan Strait“, implement the people-centered development ideology in our work with Taiwan, treat our compatriots in Taiwan equally, and serve our compatriots in Taiwan as we serve the people on the mainland. Compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait should join hands and work together to fully realize the Chinese dream of great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. The great motherland is the strongly backs up all patriotic reunification forces. We must further clarify which forces we can rely upon on upholding and spiritual banner of reunification. We must grasp the relationship between consistency and diversity, attach importance to reconciliation in winning people’s hearts and minds, and persistently work with the people of Taiwan to gather together and promote even more awesome forces to advance the great cause of reunification.

  Eighth, we must insist on crushing the secessionist attempts of “Taiwan independence”. This is an inevitable requirement for accomplishing reunification. General Secretary Xi Jinping has pointed out that the secession of “Taiwan independence” is the greatest obstacle to the reunification of the motherland and a serious hidden danger to the rejuvenation of the nation. We will never allow anyone, any organization or any political party to split any piece of Chinese territory from China at any time and in any form. We have the firm will, full confidence and sufficient ability to foil any form of “Taiwan independence” secessionist attempt. We will further clarify our attitude and determination not to tolerate the secession of “Taiwan independence”. We must grasp the relationship between treating the symptoms and the root causes, resolutely combat the secessionist acts of “Taiwan independence”, clarify the ideological roots of “Taiwan independence” in society, and thoroughly remove the obstacles and hidden dangers for the promotion of the great cause of reunification.

  Ninth, we insist on opposing interference by external forces. This is an external condition for reunification. General Secretary Xi Jinping has pointed out that Taiwan is China’s Taiwan. The resolution of the Taiwan issue is a matter for the Chinese themselves and should be decided by the Chinese. The Taiwan issue is an internal affair of China, which concerns the core interests of China and the national sentiments of the Chinese people and does not allow any foreign interference. No one should underestimate the strong determination, firm will and powerful ability of the Chinese people to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity. Further clarify the nature and prominent risks of the Taiwan issue. We must grasp the relationship between gaining international understanding and support and opposing foreign interference, resolutely oppose the practice of playing the “Taiwan card” and “using Taiwan to control China”, consolidate the international community’s adherence to the one-China principle, and create a more favorable external environment for promoting the reunification cause. This will create a more favorable external environment for the promotion of reunification.

  Tenth, we insist that we will never commit to renouncing the use of force. This is the strategic support for reunification. General Secretary Xi Jinping has pointed out that we will never undertake to renounce the use of force and retain the option of taking all necessary measures which would be aimed at the interference of external forces and a very small number of “Taiwan independence” separatists and their separatist activities. These forces would not be aimed at the compatriots in Taiwan at large. It was further made clear that reunification must be carried out with both hands, grasping the relationship between peaceful means and non-peaceful means. We must always making adequate preparations for both hands to ensure that both hands are strong, so as to provide a more solid means of advancing the great cause of reunification.

  The Party’s overall strategy for resolving the Taiwan issue in the new era is an important part of Xi Jinping’s Socialist Thought with Chinese Characteristics for the New Era. It inherits and develops our Party’s general policy toward Taiwan and gathers the Party’s wisdom. It crystallizes our Party’s century-long history of struggle for the reunification of the motherland. It is the epistemology and methodology for achieving reunification, and raising to a higher level our Party’s view of national reunification. It marks a our Party’s more mature and definitive theory of national reunification .

   III. Practical requirements for a profound grasp of the Party’s overall strategy for resolving the Taiwan issue in the new era

  The report of the twentieth Party Congress makes strategic plans for work on Taiwan in the coming period. We must implement the spirit of the 20th Party Congress and put into practice the Party’s overall strategy for resolving the Taiwan issue in the new era in all aspects and processes of our work with Taiwan.

  (1) Grasp the historical initiative and firmly advance the process of reunification with the motherland. General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized the need to grasp the historical initiative and create a new historical greatness. The report of the 20th Party Congress grasps the irreversible historical trend of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, plans work on Taiwan based on the overall development of the Party and the State, and puts forward the goal of work on Taiwan of “firmly grasping the dominant power and initiative in cross-strait relations and unswervingly advancing the great cause of the reunification of the motherland”. The 20th Party Congress will strongly promote the modernization process of the motherland. We should give full play to the spirit of historical initiative and transform our growing comprehensive strength and significant institutional advantages into powerful momentum to advance the reunification process. The report upholds the principle of “peaceful reunification and one country, two systems” and emphasizes that “we will strive with the utmost sincerity and make the utmost efforts for the prospect of peaceful reunification, but we will never commit ourselves to renouncing the use of force and retain the option of taking all necessary measures”, with the aim of fundamentally safeguarding the prospects for the peaceful reunification of the motherland and advancing its development. Our aim is to fundamentally safeguard the prospects for peaceful reunification of the motherland and advance the process of peaceful reunification of the motherland. This reflects the Party’s attachment to national justice, the well-being of compatriots and peace across the Taiwan Strait, its profound grasp of the future and destiny of the Chinese nation and the overall development of the country, and demonstrates our strategic confidence and determination.

  (2) Promote the well-being of the people and deepening cross-Strait integration and development in various fields. General Secretary Xi Jinping has emphasized the need to enhance the well-being of compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait and to realize the aspirations of compatriots on both sides of the Strait for a better life. The report of the 20th Party Congress proposes to “continue to promote cross-Strait economic and cultural exchanges and cooperation, deepen cross-Strait integration and development in various fields. The report also proposes to improve systems and policies to enhance the well-being of compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, promote the joint promotion of Chinese culture on both sides of the Strait, and foster spiritual ties between compatriots on both sides of the Strait”. It highlights the people-centered development ideology and the unchanging intention of working for the well-being of our compatriots. Economic and cultural exchanges and cooperation are the “two wheels” of cross-strait relations and an important channel for promoting common development across the Taiwan Strait and enhancing the strength of ties among compatriots. They tighten the ties of interests and sentiment of compatriots across the Taiwan Strait and forging a sense of community of common destiny. Integration and development in various fields across the Taiwan Strait is a fundamental project for peaceful reunification. We need to make greater strides in exploring new ways of cross-strait integration and development, to support Fujian in taking the lead in building a cross-strait integration and development demonstration zone. We need to support Taiwanese compatriots and enterprises in seizing the broad development space and development opportunities brought about by the 20th Party Congress to better integrate themselves into the new development pattern and participate in high-quality development. As Chinese citizens, Taiwan compatriots have the right to share in the well-being of people on the Mainland. We need to actively implement equal treatment for and protect the rights and interests of Taiwan compatriots in accordance with the law. We should continuously enhance their sense of access and identity. Chinese culture is the root and soul of compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait and their most natural link. This is the deepest force and the most unbreakable bond in cross-strait relations. It is just this fundamental fact that determines the inevitable failure of “Taiwan independence” secession. We must work together to promote Chinese culture, enhance Chinese cultural identity and confidence, and build a common spiritual home.

  (3) Carry forward the spirit of struggle and resolutely crush the secessionist attempts of “Taiwan independence” and foreign interference. General Secretary Xi Jinping has stressed the need to strengthen both our will and our skills for this struggle. Reunification is a process of continuous struggle with the forces of secession and foreign interference until we achieve ultimate victory. For some time, Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities have persisted in their erroneous position of “Taiwan independence”, refused to recognize the one-China principle and the “1992 Consensus”. They have willingly become pawns of external forces in curbing China, and continuously carried out “independence” provocations. The United States is playing the “Taiwan card”, hollowing out the one-China principle, raising the level of exchanges between the United States and Taiwan, and increasing arms sales to Taiwan in an attempt to obstruct the process of China’s reunification and national rejuvenation. The report of the 20th Party Congress emphasizes the spirit of struggle, draws a bottom-line and a red line. It demonstrates our determination and confidence to fight and win. We must enhance our concerns, preparing ourselves for unexpected developments, adhere on bottom-line thinking, dare to struggle and be good at struggle. We must consolidate and expand the achievements of the anti-secession and anti-interference struggle, resolutely defeat “Taiwan independence” provocations and foreign interference, firmly defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and create a stable environment in the Taiwan Strait for the development of the Party and the State.

  (4) Promote unity and be prepared to strive towards our goal; join hands to create a great historical undertaking for the reunification of the motherland and the rejuvenation of the nation. General Secretary Xi Jinping has emphasized that unity and struggle are the way for the Chinese people to accomplish a great historical achievement. The report of the 20th Party Congress highlights the importance of unity and struggle. Taiwan compatriots are members of the Chinese nation and are an important force in developing cross-strait relations and promoting the reunification of the motherland. The island’s patriotic and unified forces are the very backbone of this struggle. We must unite with our compatriots in Taiwan, firmly support the patriotic reunification forces on the island, jointly grasp the general trend of history, and insist upon our nation’s righteous cause. We must firmly oppose Taiwan “independence” and promote reunification. Our compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are linked by blood and are one family. We should always respect, care for and work for the well-being of our compatriots in Taiwan. We should work long and hard, especially among young people, to enhance their knowledge and feelings about the Chinese nation and our country. We should deepen their understanding that reunification is beneficial, that “Taiwan independence” is a dead end, and that outsiders cannot be relied upon. We should guide them to consciously join the glorious cause of the reunification of the motherland and national rejuvenation. Cross-strait affairs are the family business of compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. They should of course be handled by the family through consultation. On the basis of the one-China principle and the 1992 Consensus, we are willing to promote extensive and in-depth consultations with Taiwan’s parties, sectors and people from all walks of life on cross-Strait relations and national reunification, so as to jointly promote the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations, advance the process of peaceful reunification of the motherland and create a better future for all Chinese people.



刘结一:坚持贯彻新时代党解决台湾问题的总体方略

更新时间:2022-12-01 20:09:46

进入专题: 台湾问题  

刘结一

  

   习近平总书记所作的党的二十大报告,强调坚持贯彻新时代党解决台湾问题的总体方略,为做好新时代对台工作提供了根本遵循和行动指南,对新征程推进祖国统一进程,具有重大深远意义。

   一、新时代党解决台湾问题的总体方略是党的十八大以来对台工作守正创新的宝贵结晶和根本指引

   解决台湾问题、实现祖国完全统一,是党矢志不渝的历史任务,是全体中华儿女的共同愿望,是实现中华民族伟大复兴的必然要求。长期以来,我们党为此进行了不懈奋斗,付出了巨大努力。党的十八大以来,中国特色社会主义进入新时代,中华民族迎来了从站起来、富起来到强起来的伟大飞跃,比以往任何时候都更有能力、更有信心也更加接近实现祖国完全统一。同时,世界百年未有之大变局加速演进,美国加大“以台制华”,解决台湾问题面临新的战略环境。习近平总书记统筹中华民族伟大复兴战略全局和世界百年未有之大变局,把握历史大势和时代变化,丰富和发展国家统一理论和对台方针政策,形成新时代党解决台湾问题的总体方略,指引对台工作克难前行,谱写了新时代10年伟大变革的对台篇章。

   我们推动两岸政治交往取得新突破,实现1949年以来两岸领导人首次会晤、直接对话沟通,树立两岸关系和平发展历史性标杆;开展两岸各界对话协商,在一个中国原则和“九二共识”基础上平等协商、共议统一迈出新步伐,引领两岸关系正确前进方向;深化两岸融合发展展现新作为,同台湾同胞分享大陆发展机遇、落实同等待遇,出台一系列惠及台湾同胞的政策举措并形成叠加效应,增进两岸同胞亲情福祉;有效应对台海形势变化及风险挑战,坚决反制“台独”分裂活动和外来干涉挑衅行径,取得反分裂反干涉斗争新成效,强化统一历史大势;携手共圆中国梦的宏愿,激发台湾同胞做民族复兴的参与者和受益者、当堂堂正正中国人的认同感和自豪感,凝聚团结奋斗的磅礴伟力。

   新时代10年对台工作最鲜明的特征是牢牢掌握两岸关系主导权主动权,最关键的因素是党和国家事业取得历史性成就、发生历史性变革,最重要的启示是统一的时、势、义始终在祖国大陆这一边,最根本的保证是以习近平同志为核心的党中央的坚强领导和习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想的科学指引。

   二、深刻领会新时代党解决台湾问题的总体方略的丰富内涵和重大意义

   党的十八大以来,习近平总书记就对台工作发表一系列重要论述,作出一系列重要指示批示,提出一系列新理念新思想新战略。党的十九大进一步确立坚持“一国两制”和推进祖国统一的基本方略。习近平总书记在《告台湾同胞书》发表40周年纪念会上系统宣示新时代推进祖国和平统一的重大政策主张。党的十九届四中全会明确坚持和完善“一国两制”制度体系、推进祖国和平统一。党的十九届六中全会首次提出新时代党解决台湾问题的总体方略。

   新时代党解决台湾问题的总体方略内涵丰富、逻辑严密、系统完备,深刻回答了新征程推进祖国统一的根本保证、历史方位、战略思路、大政方针、政治基础、实践途径、根本动力、必然要求、外部条件、战略支撑等重大理论和实践问题,蕴含了习近平总书记强烈使命担当、深厚民族情怀、鲜明人民立场、宏阔历史视野、辩证战略思维、坚强斗争精神的领袖品格,为新时代解决台湾问题、实现祖国完全统一指明了方向,必须长期坚持、全面贯彻。

   第一,坚持党中央对对台工作的集中统一领导。这是统一的根本保证。习近平总书记指出,必须坚持党的全面领导特别是党中央集中统一领导,把党的领导落实到党和国家事业各领域各方面各环节。对台工作是党和国家事业的重要组成部分,必须把加强党中央集中统一领导落实到对台工作的各方面全过程。进一步明确做好对台工作的优势所在、关键所在、根本所在。要把握好党的全面领导与发挥各方面积极性的关系,把政治制度优势转化为对台工作效能,巩固全国一盘棋对台工作格局,为推进统一大业提供更为强大的合力。

   第二,坚持在中华民族伟大复兴进程中推进祖国统一。这是统一的历史方位。习近平总书记指出,民族复兴、国家统一是大势所趋、大义所在、民心所向。国家统一是中华民族走向伟大复兴的历史必然。台湾问题因民族弱乱而产生,必将随着民族复兴而解决。进一步明确国家统一在民族复兴战略全局中的重要地位。要把握好国家统一与民族复兴的关系,把握历史大势,掌握历史主动,为推进统一大业注入更为主动的精神力量。

   第三,坚持在祖国大陆发展进步基础上解决台湾问题。这是统一的战略思路。习近平总书记指出,从根本上说,决定两岸关系走向的关键因素是祖国大陆发展进步。我们要保持自身发展势头,同时采取正确政策措施做好台湾工作。进一步明确解决台湾问题的必要充分条件。要把握好发展硬实力与软实力的关系,把国家和民族发展放在自己力量的基点上,办好自己的事情,持续增强对台影响力、吸引力和感召力,为推进统一大业奠定更为雄厚的基础。

   第四,坚持“和平统一、一国两制”基本方针。这是统一的大政方针。习近平总书记指出,我们所追求的国家统一不仅是形式上的统一,更重要的是两岸同胞的心灵契合。“和平统一、一国两制”是解决台湾问题的基本方针,也是实现两岸统一的最佳方式,对两岸同胞和中华民族最有利。我们愿意为和平统一创造广阔空间,着力探索“两制”台湾方案。进一步明确高质量统一的内涵和形式。要把握好“一国”与“两制”的关系,坚定制度自信,在实践探索中不断开辟“一国两制”新境界,为推进统一大业提供更为完善的制度保障。

   第五,坚持一个中国原则和“九二共识”。这是统一的政治基础。习近平总书记指出,一个中国原则是两岸关系的政治基础。体现一个中国原则的“九二共识”是确保两岸关系和平发展的关键。在此基础上,我们愿意同台湾各党派、团体和人士就两岸政治问题和祖国和平统一开展对话沟通,推动两岸各政党、各界别推举的代表性人士就两岸关系和民族未来开展民主协商。进一步明确共商共议统一的基础和方式。要把握好原则坚定与策略灵活的关系,坚持一个中国原则,广泛开展对话协商,为推进统一大业积累更为广泛的社会共识。

   第六,坚持推动两岸关系和平发展、融合发展。这是统一的实践途径。习近平总书记指出,两岸关系和平发展是维护两岸和平、促进共同发展、造福两岸同胞的正确道路,也是通向和平统一的光明大道。要深化两岸融合发展,率先同台湾同胞分享发展机遇,提供同等待遇,扩大深化两岸交流合作,壮大中华民族经济,共同弘扬中华文化,建设两岸命运共同体。进一步明确和平统一的必由之路。要把握好和平发展、融合发展与和平统一的关系,增强统一预期和动力,实现统一过程和目的高度统一,为推进统一大业提供更为充分的条件。

   第七,坚持团结台湾同胞、争取台湾民心。这是统一的根本动力。习近平总书记指出,要秉持“两岸一家亲”理念,在对台工作中贯彻好以人民为中心的发展思想,对台湾同胞一视同仁,像为大陆百姓服务那样造福台湾同胞。两岸同胞要携手同心,共圆中华民族伟大复兴中国梦。伟大祖国是所有爱国统一力量的坚强后盾。进一步明确统一的依靠力量和精神旗帜。要把握好一致性与多样性的关系,重视人心回归,坚持不懈做台湾人民工作,为推进统一大业凝聚更为磅礴的力量。

   第八,坚持粉碎“台独”分裂图谋。这是统一的必然要求。习近平总书记指出,“台独”分裂是祖国统一的最大障碍,是民族复兴的严重隐患。我们绝不允许任何人、任何组织、任何政党、在任何时候、以任何形式、把任何一块中国领土从中国分裂出去。我们有坚定的意志、充分的信心、足够的能力挫败任何形式的“台独”分裂图谋。进一步明确决不容忍“台独”分裂的态度和决心。要把握好治标与治本的关系,坚决打击“台独”分裂行径,廓清“台独”社会思想根源,为推进统一大业彻底清除障碍隐患。

   第九,坚持反对外部势力干涉。这是统一的外部条件。习近平总书记指出,台湾是中国的台湾。解决台湾问题是中国人自己的事,要由中国人来决定。台湾问题是中国的内政,事关中国核心利益和中国人民民族感情,不容任何外来干涉。任何人都不要低估中国人民捍卫国家主权和领土完整的坚强决心、坚定意志、强大能力。进一步明确台湾问题的本质和突出风险。要把握好争取国际理解支持与反对外来干涉的关系,坚决同打“台湾牌”、“以台制华”的行径作斗争,巩固国际社会坚持一个中国原则的格局,为推进统一大业营造更为有利的外部环境。

   第十,坚持决不承诺放弃使用武力。这是统一的战略支撑。习近平总书记指出,我们决不承诺放弃使用武力,保留采取一切必要措施的选项,这针对的是外部势力干涉和极少数“台独”分裂分子及其分裂活动,绝非针对广大台湾同胞。进一步明确统一必须坚持两手并用,把握好和平与非和平方式的关系,始终做足做好两手准备,确保两手都过硬,为推进统一大业提供更为牢靠的手段。

   新时代党解决台湾问题的总体方略是习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想的重要组成部分,是我们党对台大政方针的继承发展和集大成,是我们党为祖国统一奋斗百年历史的智慧结晶,是实现统一的认识论和方法论,升华了我们党的国家统一观,标志着我们党的国家统一理论更加成熟、更加定型。

   三、深刻把握新时代党解决台湾问题的总体方略的实践要求

   党的二十大报告对今后一个时期对台工作作出战略部署。我们要贯彻党的二十大精神,把新时代党解决台湾问题的总体方略落实到对台工作各方面全过程。

   (一)把握历史主动,坚定推进祖国统一进程。习近平总书记强调要把握历史主动,创造新的历史伟业。党的二十大报告把握中华民族伟大复兴不可逆转的历史大势,立足党和国家事业发展全局谋划对台工作,提出“牢牢把握两岸关系主导权和主动权,坚定不移推进祖国统一大业”的对台工作目标。党的二十大将有力推进祖国大陆现代化建设进程,我们要发挥历史主动精神,把日益增长的综合实力、显著的制度优势持续转化为推进统一进程的强大动能。报告坚持“和平统一、一国两制”方针,强调“以最大诚意、尽最大努力争取和平统一的前景,但决不承诺放弃使用武力,保留采取一切必要措施的选项”,目的是从根本上维护祖国和平统一的前景、推进祖国和平统一的进程,体现了我们党对民族大义、同胞福祉与两岸和平的珍视,对中华民族前途命运和国家发展全局的深刻把握,彰显了我们的战略信心和定力。

   (二)增进人民福祉,深化两岸各领域融合发展。习近平总书记强调要增进两岸同胞福祉,实现两岸同胞对美好生活的向往。党的二十大报告提出“继续致力于促进两岸经济文化交流合作,深化两岸各领域融合发展,完善增进台湾同胞福祉的制度和政策,推动两岸共同弘扬中华文化,促进两岸同胞心灵契合”的对台工作举措,彰显以人民为中心的发展思想、为同胞谋福祉的不变初心。经济文化交流合作是发展两岸关系的“两个轮子”,是促进两岸共同发展、增进同胞亲情福祉的重要渠道,要拉紧两岸同胞利益联结和情感纽带,铸牢两岸命运共同体意识。两岸各领域融合发展是和平统一的基础工程,要在探索两岸融合发展新路上迈出更大步伐,支持福建率先建设两岸融合发展示范区;支持台胞台企抓住党的二十大带来的广阔发展空间和发展机遇,更好融入新发展格局、参与高质量发展。台湾同胞与大陆百姓共享福祉,是台胞作为中国公民的应有之义,要积极落实同等待遇,依法保障台湾同胞权益,不断提升其获得感和认同感。中华文化是两岸同胞的根和魂,是两岸关系中最天然的联结、最深沉的力量,也是最牢不可破的纽带,从根本上决定了“台独”分裂必然失败。要共同弘扬中华文化,增强中华文化认同、自信,建设共同精神家园。

   (三)发扬斗争精神,坚决粉碎“台独”分裂和外来干涉图谋。习近平总书记强调要坚定斗争意志,增强斗争本领。统一就是同“台独”分裂势力和外来干涉势力不断斗争直至最终胜利的过程。一个时期以来,台湾民进党当局坚持“台独”错误立场,拒不承认一个中国原则和“九二共识”,甘为外部势力遏华棋子,不断进行谋“独”挑衅。美国大打“台湾牌”,掏空一个中国原则,提升美台往来层级,加大对台售武,图谋阻挠中国统一和民族复兴进程。党的二十大报告强调斗争精神,划出底线红线,展现敢于斗争、敢于胜利的决心信心。要增强忧患意识,坚持底线思维,敢于斗争、善于斗争,巩固拓展反分裂反干涉斗争成果,坚决挫败“台独”挑衅和外来干涉行径,坚定捍卫国家主权和领土完整,为党和国家事业发展营造稳定台海环境。

   (四)促进团结奋斗,携手共创祖国统一、民族复兴历史伟业。习近平总书记强调团结奋斗是中国人民创造历史伟业的必由之路。党的二十大报告突出团结奋斗的重要性。台湾同胞是中华民族的成员,是发展两岸关系、推进祖国统一的重要力量,岛内爱国统一力量更是其中的中坚力量。我们要团结广大台湾同胞,坚定支持岛内爱国统一力量,共同把握历史大势,坚守民族大义,坚定反“独”促统。两岸同胞血脉相连,是一家人。我们要始终尊重、关爱、造福台湾同胞,绵绵用力、久久为功,增进台湾同胞尤其是青少年对民族、对国家的认知和感情,加深他们对统一有好处、“台独”是绝路、外人靠不住的认识,引导他们自觉投身祖国统一和民族复兴的光辉事业。两岸的事是两岸同胞的家里事,当然也应该由家里人商量着办。我们愿意在一个中国原则和“九二共识”基础上,推进同台湾各党派、各界别、各阶层人士就两岸关系和国家统一开展广泛深入协商,共同推动两岸关系和平发展、推进祖国和平统一进程,创造全体中国人共同美好的未来。

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2018 Foundations of the DARPA Model’s Effectiveness: Lessons for China’s Military S&T II

This second in a series of what might be called “love letters to DARPA” written by Chinese scholars looking for lessons that can be used to argue for reform in the Chinese science and technology system and in particular the PRC military S&T system. While many in the US would look with some skepticism at this idealized view of the US national ‘operating system’ that is the foundation upon which US S&T science and technology, it is aimed at providing as powerful an argument as possible for reform in China.

Comparisons are always difficult: intensive self-criticism (perhaps Mao would approve!) pushes societies to become better versions of themselves; if this self-criticism is often absent (intimidated into silence) or repressed maybe not so much. This happens now and again in China where the problem is not such much Big Brother as many Little Brothers lording their authority over people unchecked in their domains. General Secretary Xi has been cracking down on corruption these past ten years though fear of the boss vs. conscientiously observing the law are two different things. Twenty years ago a taxicab driver in Henan Province who had picked me up remarking “Yesterday I gave a ride to two PLA soldiers returned from Hong Kong. When I said to them ‘Living in Hong Kong must be great!’ They said, ‘No. Living in Hong Kong is like being in jail. There are all these laws that you have to obey!'” What impresses you about a place depends upon where you are from.

While such problems also arise in the US, the openness of the US system and professional standards largely keep them in check. Is easy to underestimate US strengths and overestimate China strengths, which then leads to exaggerated worries about China.

Since reform began in China in the late 1970s, the Chinese science and technology system has undergone reform. The National Natural Science Foundation of China, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the State Administration for Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense and some other PRC agencies have studied and have created scientific peer review systems in China to push funding towards the better applicants for funding.

Problems of plagiarism and fraud have been serious problems in China. The Chinese government regularly addressed this problem. I collected some reports about this in a posting a few years ago: Another Report on Corruption in Chinese Science and Education

Ideas about plagiarism and intellectual property were different have changed gradually since reform; earlier what is called ‘intellectual property’ was considered a product of society and so exclusive property rights to them. Communist theory looks askance at the idea of ‘private property’ — although one should keep in mind that China’s Communist Party does not claim to be a communist country — it calls itself a socialist country on the long road to communism that has a mixed economy in the meantime. See Stanford University Computer Science Department’s on Public Goods and Intellectual Property Rights in China.

China’s wealth is its people. With such a large population, China likely has more genius around (some may even be lying flat tang ping these days) than anywhere else except India — so the question becomes whether it can effectively educate and give them a good working environment. The article below is about the general U.S. environment for S&T research and development rather than about DARPA, although it takes atypical DARPA as an exemplar.

In 2007, then DARPA Director Dr. Tony Tether (2001-2009) had this to say about China.

I worry about the Chinese. The Chinese are putting on the order of 5
million kids a year into school, into college. Five million kids a year into college.
And most of them are doing engineering, science, and technology.
Even if you were to assume that the distribution of genius-level people is
independent, you know, a genius-level person being, like, 1 percent or less of the
of the population, you take 1 .4 billion people – or a billion people – it’s a big
number compared to us. Well, in fact, it’s four or five times bigger.
So, you have that many more genius-like people who are now, with the
economy in China getting better, who are making sure that they get into schools,
and they’re learning engineering and science. And these people are very
entrepreneurial. If you know a lot of Chinese people, you know they love making
a buck. Not so much for the money, but for the game, for the game of it all.
And so that’s a worry. That’s really a worry. And so we’re monitoring that
as carefully as we can. But all I can say is, as of today, I’m comfortable that
we’re well ahead.

Transcript of 2007-2009 Interview with then DARPA Dr. Tony Tether DARPA Director on US Department of Defense website.

Judging from the many Chinese names in scientific publications from US institutions, Chinese scholars and students coming to the US, many to stay for extended periods or permanently has been a great boon for the United States. Reducing the number of students and scientific exchanges with China, as some advocate these days, would harm both the United States and China.

Getting the environment right for Chinese S&T is crucial for realizing the potential of its people.

9136401-1_u

A superb book on the weaknesses of the Chinese academic evaluation system Criticism of the Academic Evaluation System 学术评价制度批判 by Professor Liu Ming 刘明 of the Zhejiang Administration Academy and Zhejiang University can be purchased online. William H. A. Johnson also discussed this issue and Liu Ming’s book in his own 2015 book  Innovation in China: The Tail of the Dragon.

Liu Ming argues that the lack of reliable qualitative evaluations pushes the universities and Chinese science to rely overmuch on quantitative indicators. The accent on quantitative indicators to the exclusion of qualitative indicators such as reputation and peer review of work quality not to mention professorial teaching has very negative effects on the quality of science, on academic promotions and the quality of higher education being received by the rising generation of students.

I see this as an issues that goes much deeper than academic corruption. If the peer evaluation system that China has been transplanting from the West cannot function well, the effectiveness of China’s funding of its scientists and universities would have to be less. The fundamental principle of peer review is to push decisions on funding specific research project down to the level of working scientists in a field who can make the best judgement on quality. Liu writes that while peer review works reasonably well on small projects in China, for medium and large sized projects it works very poorly because of the interference of administrators and government and Party officials.

I remember in the mid 1980s a Chinese scholar coming to me after three months in the US, saying “David, I think the USA is a communist country!”. He had been hearing about the U.S. social welfare system such as social security, unemployment insurance and welfare and thought it was much closer to communist ideals than what he had known in China. So where you stand depends on where you sit. Always mind-bending to keep in mind that that applies to me too.

Though I do wonder how arguments based on this article would resonate at Party headquarters given that the Party always insists upon two principles: the people’s democratic dictatorship and the absolute leadership of the Communist Party. When the Big Brother is not effectively constrained by law, can you expect all the Little Brother running around unchecked? The problem is often Little Brother up to some deviltry that Big Brother either doesn’t know about or can’t take immediate action until the time is right, and so, to preserve his authority, pretends not to know. Though Big Brother too gets excited when the two principles above are questioned.

There are those PRC political slogans. Are they compatible with an atmosphere of free thought and daring that the DARPA model discussed below stands for? China already has many fine S&T workers. Would they do even better in a different environment? Perhaps I am just handicapped by my capitalist class background that I wonder about such things.

  • The Four Consciousnesses” sige yishi 四個意識  enhance political integrity, develop a better understanding of the general picture, follow the core leadership of the Central Committee, and act consistently with CPC Central Committee policy.
  • “The Four Self-confidences” sige zixin  四個自信“confident in our chosen path, confident in our guiding theories, confident in our political system, and confident in our culture.”
  • The Two Safeguards” liangge weihu 兩個維護 “‘Safeguard the core position of the Xi Jinping-led Party Central Committee and at the core position of the whole party’ and ‘Safeguard the authority of the Party Central Committee and centralized and unified leadership’” 

Foundations of the DARPA Model’s Effectiveness

Military-Civil Fusion Blue Ocean Star Thinktank

深度分析:DARPA模式有效运行的基础
军民融合 蓝海星智库

October 22, 2019

This paper examines the DARPA model and the foundations of its operation, and finds that the effective operation of the model is due to the innovation ecology of the entire U.S. society.

DARPA is recognized as the most innovative and dynamic agency in the world. For over sixty years DARPA spawned life-changing civilian and military combat technologies such as the Internet, gallium nitride, and stealth aircraft and continues to provide the United States with transformative and innovative ideas and technologies. This paper examines the foundations of the DARPA model and operation and finds that the model operates effectively thanks to the innovation ecology of the entire U.S. society.

Figure 1 Tacit Blue, the world’s first stealth aircraft equipped with a radar system, developed by DARPA

I. A Good Social Security System Makes Researchers Worry-free

A Comprehensive Social Security System

The United States is the first country in the world to implement a systematic social security system, as early as 1935 promulgated and implemented the “Social Security Act”. At present, the U.S. has established an excellent and comprehensive system of pension insurance, medical insurance and unemployment insurance. While many European countries are in financial crisis due to the heavy economic burden caused by the excessive level of social security, the U.S. social security system still maintains basic normal operation. The annual fiscal expenditure on social security and employment and health care in the United States is about 1.5 trillion dollars, accounting for 37% of the federal government’s expenditure. Comprehensive social security, a sound educational and medical system and more mature housing market make the American nationals rarely anxious and complain in daily life, work and study, and lay the foundation for pioneering innovation.

High Rate of Mobility
The economic and cultural differences between different regions in the U.S. are small, the mobility rate of the whole society is high, and the circulation channels between organizations such as enterprises, universities and government agencies are relatively smooth. Americans are less tied to where they live when looking for work. According to statistics, about 40 million people move each year in the United States, and an American will move about 14 times in his or her lifetime.

DARPA is a typical government department that makes extensive use of the nation’s best talent, with a short-term hiring system that changes program managers at a rate of about 25 percent per year. The majority of program managers come from corporations, some from government laboratories, universities and nonprofits, and a few from military personnel in all branches of the service. This turnover ensures that DARPA is constantly supplied with new ideas and concepts, avoiding the crystallization of thinking and bureaucracy that can result from long tenure, and leaving room for hiring talent in emerging technologies.

High Incomes
Most U.S. researchers enjoy high incomes and are optimistic and confident about the research they are currently doing. The National Science Foundation’s Science and Engineering Indicators 2018 report shows that half of scientists and engineers earned more than $84,000 (about RMB 576,000) in 2016, while the median salary of U.S. laborers was only $37,000 (about RMB 254,000). Government researchers do not earn as much as some high-tech companies, but they also exceed the social average, such as the Naval Research Laboratory, which researchers earn about $100,000 per capita per year.
With special authorization from the U.S. Congress, DARPA can offer competitive salaries to hire talented people from all walks of life as program managers. According to several U.S. job boards, DARPA’s open recruitment program manager salaries range from $136,000 to $168,000, which is on the upper end of the national scale. The higher income can ensure that DARPA researchers can live without worries and concentrate more on technical exploration.


II. The Culture of Science Nurtures the Spirit of Innovation

The spirit of pioneering and innovation
As a country of immigrants, the United States has a pioneering and innovative spirit, the core of which is respect for individual freedom, which determines the inclusiveness of American culture. The coexistence and intersection of various ideas in the United States has become an important condition for promoting innovation. In innovation, the U.S. advocates “individual heroism” and challenges authority, and Steve Jobs of Apple and Musk of SpaceX are typical of them.

Figure 2 SpaceX founder Elon Musk

DARPA is the quintessential example of pioneering innovation, supporting all kinds of ideas, even those that are too crazy to be accepted by the public. The Director of DARPA has greater independence in his work and can do whatever he wants to do. The Director deciding on the priorities and life and death of scientific projects. This is unusual in the U.S. government. DARPA program managers are known as “mad scientists”. They are given great decision-making authority without being bound by the peer review mechanism. If they can convince the director, they can avoid missed opportunities from failing to invest because their peers voted against a new technology because they thought it was too risky and disruptive.

An Atmosphere that Promotes Innovation

The U.S. has an environment and atmosphere that promotes innovation. The National Museum of History is inscribed with the phrase “Modern civilization began with technology“, and various science and technology festivals and open lab days attract the public, including children, to get in touch with technology and understand how it changes their lives. Innovation is inherently risky, and failure is inevitable. To American innovators, the most shameful thing is not to fail, but to be afraid to try. Each failure is seen as a successful trial and error, which not only makes the failures more and more experienced and closer to success, but also provides lessons for other innovators. This has a strong spillover effect. This tolerance of failure is a true recognition of the value that failure implies. Of course, failures that are the result of inadequate project management and ignoring the laws of nature are unacceptable.

DARPA supports “high-risk, high-reward” technology research, where “failure” is inevitable and generally acceptable, and therefore does not require that 100% of project targets be met at the time of acceptance. Former Director Tony Tether has said that more than 85% of DARPA‘s projects have not met their intended goals.

Pragmatism
In the concept of mutual bumping and free competition, the U.S. national gradually formed a pragmatic ideology, that is, oriented to solving practical problems, encouraging the exploration of new ideas, innovative management mechanisms, and transforming ideas into realistic and usable productivity, while regulating the relations of production. Under the influence of this concept, the U.S. first started to establish venture capital to provide financing to technology companies, while the government provided a large number of incentives for startups.

This concept is also reflected in the DARPA technology transformation process, DARPA’s philosophy is: “Technological transformation does not have to be at the expense of innovation, but should be seen as a natural extension of innovation.” DARPA technology transformation process is very flexible, according to the specific characteristics of the project to take different transformation methods. In 2002, the Inspector General of the U.S. Department of Defense stated. “DARPA does not have a single conversion path or process that applies to all programs.” In addition, DARPA promptly terminates programs that are slow or show no promise of success and directs funds to programs with more promise of success.

Figure 3 Global Hawk UAV

III. Open research system Promotes Innovative Synergy

Open communication mechanism
The United States has the world’s largest and highest level of scientific research team, and 40% of the Nobel Prize winners in the 20th century came from the United States. The U.S. technical fields are finely divided, and there are many experts in each subdivision, so it is easy to organize a group of experts to discuss a specific field, and avoid the problem of “laymen judging insiders” during peer review.

The U.S. government attaches importance to building a platform for researchers to communicate with each other, and DARPA particularly encourages the exchange of experts from different research institutions with similar or complementary interests. In 2015, DARPA held a Future Technologies Forum on the theme of “What’s Waiting, What’s What? More than 1,200 innovators were invited to discuss technologies that have the potential to revolutionize human life and work and improve national security, and to facilitate exchanges among companies, universities, nonprofit organizations, and government agencies.

Figure 4 DARPA Future Technology Forum

Good Collaborative Innovation Mechanism
The U.S. recognizes that innovation itself is a collaborative process among all parties, especially in defense science and technology innovation, where technology requires the participation of multiple forces from germination to final transformation and application, including funding agencies, research institutions, military users, and other participating departments.

DARPA focuses on the involvement of a variety of agencies in the research process, including Congress, assurance service providers, the military services, and industry, etc. DARPA assesses that technology development and translation can be executed smoothly and effectively only when all of these sectors are involved and play their proper roles. For example, DARPA involves the military in the planning phase to assist in identifying potential military uses for the technology and to help draft RFPs.
In addition, DARPA organizes challenges that bring together defense contractors, innovative companies, inventors of all kinds, and university researchers and scholars, giving them the opportunity to showcase their “golden ideas” at the same starting line, ultimately promoting rapid technological advancement.
DARPA “Underground Challenge” to promote the exploration of unknown underground environment

Comprehensive Legal and Integrity System to Protect Science and Technology Innovation

Strict protection of intellectual property rights
The United States was the first country to include patent rights in its constitution. In the constitution formulated in 1787, it is clear that “To promote the progress of science and useful arts, by securing for limited times to authors and inventors the exclusive right to their respective writings and discoveries.“. This has largely protected the innovative spirit of researchers and encouraged scientists to make inventions. The U.S. passed the Bayh-Dole Act in 1980, which allowed universities and small businesses to retain intellectual property rights generated by government-funded projects, eliminating their concerns about participating in defense innovation and greatly encouraging more businesses to participate in defense science and technology innovation.

Under the provisions of the Bayh-Dole Act, the government still owns the intellectual property generated by large enterprises funded by the government, but Congress authorized DARPA to use the “other transaction” mechanism to organize military industry, large commercial enterprises, small businesses and universities to participate in defense science and technology innovation and produce more. The result will ultimately benefit the government, businesses, and the public.

For example, DARPA and Intel jointly funded the development of a silicon-germanium optoelectronic sensor, with the explicit provision that the intellectual property rights belong to Intel. Since then, Intel has organized the University of Virginia, memory technology manufacturer Numonyx, and other companies to develop high-performance photodetectors, effectively improving military communication capabilities and reducing foreign dependence.

Good integrity system
U.S. researchers pay attention to honor, credibility and reputation, and it is easy to relationships of trust among scientists. In the United States, once a person is found in scientific research misconduct, violation of the integrity of the provisions, regardless of its reputation, seniority, how much contribution they have made, participating in any research projects funded by the U.S. government becomes much more difficult. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services established its Office of Research Integrity to investigate and address “fabrication, falsification, or plagiarism in the process of establishing, conducting, evaluating, or reporting scientific results” in government-funded research projects, and to publish online the names of violators, institutions, violations and penalty decisions. The extremely strong ethical self-discipline and strict system design create a good integrity system. It is under such a system that DARPA program managers and research teams trust each other, and project management becomes easy and simple.

Strict punishment for violations of law
The U.S. penalties for violations have a strong deterrent effect, cutting off the chain of government research interests and avoiding scientific fraud. Once fraud is discovered, it means the end of career for individuals and the sanctions under the law for enterprises. They can no longer undertake government projects and face big punishment or closure. The U.S. has adopted the Conflict of Interest Act, the Ethics in Government Act, the False Claims Act, and other laws to prevent, monitor, and punish government officials or research teams for violations.

DARPA employees are required to avoid conflicts of interest in their work and are subject to scrutiny of their personal and family income and unusual spending, and may be investigated if problems arise.
In 2011, the Los Angeles Times revealed that then-DARPA Director Duggan had an improper relationship with RedX, a company she had previously founded, on a $6 million contract. Although no problems were found in the selection, award or management of the contract, Duggan repeatedly mentioned RedX’s technology in speeches or conversations, in violation of a rule prohibiting DoD employees from using their position to endorse a business, which led to Duggan’s resignation in March 2012.

(Blue Starfish: Sun Xingcun Mu Yuping)


深度分析:DARPA模式有效运行的基础

军民融合 蓝海星智库 2019-10-22

本文研究了DARPA模式和运行的基础,发现该模式的有效运行得益于美国整个社会的创新生态。

DARPA是全球公认最具创新活力的机构,成立60多年来,催生出互联网、氮化镓和隐身等改变人类生活和军事作战的技术,并继续为美国提供变革性创新思想和技术。本文研究了DARPA模式和运行的基础,发现该模式的有效运行得益于美国整个社会的创新生态。


图1 DARPA研发的全球首架配备雷达系统的隐形飞行器——“沉默之蓝”号隐形飞机
一、良好的社会保障使科研人员无后顾之忧
1、完善的社会保障制度
美国是世界上最早实行系统的社会保障法律制度的国家,早在1935年就颁布实施了《社会保障法》。目前,美国已经建立起完善的养老保险、医疗保险和失业保险制度,在欧洲多国因不堪过高的社会保障水平造成的沉重经济负担而陷入财政危机时,美国社会保障体系依然维持着基本正常运转。美国每年在社会保障与就业和医疗卫生方面的财政支出约为1.5万亿美元,占联邦政府支出的37%。完善的社会保障、健全的教育和医疗制度以及较为成熟的住房市场,使美国国民在日常生活、工作和学习中很少焦虑和抱怨,为开拓创新奠定了基础。
2、较高的人员流动率
美国不同地域间经济和文化差异较小,整个社会的人员流动率较高,企业、大学和政府机构等组织间的人员流通渠道较为通畅。美国人找工作时较少受居住地的羁绊,据统计,美国每年约有4000万人迁居,一个美国人一生中大概会迁居14次。
DARPA是广泛利用全美顶尖人才的典型政府部门,它实行短期聘用制,每年以约25%的比率更换项目经理。项目经理大多数来自企业,部分来自政府实验室、大学和非营利机构,少数出自各军种的军职人员。人员流动确保DARPA源源不断地获得新的思维和观念,避免因长久任职而产生的思维固化和官僚作风,同时也为聘用新兴技术领域的人才留出了空间。
3、较高的收入水平
美国科研人员大都享有很高的收入,对目前所做的研究工作持乐观态度并充满信心。美国国家科学基金会《2018科学与工程指标》报告显示,2016年半数科学家和工程师的收入超过8.4万美元(约合人民币57.6万元),而美国劳动人员工资的中位数只有3.7万美元(约合人民币25.4万元)。政府科研人员的收入虽比不上某些高科技企业,但也超出社会平均水平,如海军研究实验室年人均收入约为10万美元。
在美国国会的特别授权下,DARPA可提供具有竞争力的薪酬,以聘用社会各界人才担任项目经理。美国多个招聘网站显示,DARPA公开招募项目经理的薪资在13.6~16.8万美元之间,在全美属于偏上水平。较高的收入可确保DARPA科研人员生活无忧,更加专心于技术探索。
二、崇尚科学的文化氛围孕育创新精神
1、开拓创新的精神
美国作为一个移民国家,具有开拓创新的精神,其核心是尊重个人自由,这决定了美国文化的包容性。各种思想观念在美国共存和交汇,成为促进创新的重要条件。在创新中,美国崇尚“个人英雄主义”和挑战权威,苹果公司的乔布斯、SpaceX的马斯克都是其中的典型。


图2 SpaceX创始人伊隆·马斯克
DARPA正是开拓创新的典型,它支持各种奇思妙想,即使那些因过于疯狂而不被大众接受的想法。该局局长在工作中拥有较大的独立性,可以做自己想做的任何事情,决定科研项目的优先级和生死,美国政府中这样的机构并不多见;DARPA项目经理则被称为“疯狂科学家”,他们被赋予很大的项目决策权,决策时不受同行评议机制的约束,只要说服局长即可,避免了新技术因为高风险和颠覆性而被同行投出反对票,错失投资机会。
2、提倡创新的氛围
美国拥有一个提倡创新的环境和氛围,其国家历史博物馆铭刻着“现代文明始于科技”的字句,各种科技节和实验室开放日吸引着包括孩子在内的大众接触科技,理解科技是如何改变生活的。创新本就是冒险的行为,创新难免失败。在美国创新者看来,最可耻的不是失败,而是不敢去尝试。每次失败都被视为一次成功的试错,不但使失败者越来越有经验、越来越接近成功,而且也为其他创新者提供了经验教训,具有很强的溢出效应。这种对失败的宽容是真正认可失败所蕴含的价值。当然,那些因项目管理不足和忽视自然规律所致的失败是不可接受的。
DARPA支持“高风险、高回报”技术研究,在这类探索中“失败”不可避免,一般是可以接受的,因此验收时并不要求项目指标100%达到。前局长托尼•特瑟曾表示,DARPA超过85%的项目都没有达到预定目标。
3、实用主义思想
在观念相互碰击与自由竞争中,美国国民逐渐形成了实用主义思想观念,即以解决实际问题为导向,鼓励探索新的想法、创新管理机制,并将想法转化为现实可用的生产力,同时调节生产关系。在这种观念影响下,美国最早开始成立风险投资,向科技企业提供融资,同时政府为创业企业提供大量优惠政策。
这种观念还体现在DARPA技术转化过程中,DARPA的理念是:“技术转化不一定要以牺牲创新为代价,而应被视为创新的一个自然延伸”。DARPA技术转化过程非常灵活,根据项目的具体特点采取不同转化方式。比如,新材料或芯片技术转化时,不需要军方制定采办计划,而由主承包商加以整合利用;“全球鹰”这样的大型系统转化时,则需要军方提出正式的需求并制定采办计划。2002年,美国国防部总监察长指出:“DARPA并没有适用于所有项目的单一转化途径或流程”。另外,DARPA还会及时终止进展缓慢或看不到成功希望的项目,将资金用于更有希望攻克的项目。


图3 “全球鹰”无人机
三、开放的科研体系有利于形成创新合力
1、畅通的交流机制
美国拥有世界上规模最大、水平最高的科研队伍,20世纪诺贝尔奖获得者中40%来自美国。美国技术领域划分较细,各个细分领域都有很多专家,可以容易地组织一批专家研讨某个具体领域,并避免同行评议时出现“外行评内行”问题。
科研人员之间的真诚交流是促进美国创新的重要动力,美国政府重视搭建科研人员交流的平台,DARPA尤其鼓励来自不同研究机构且具有类似或互补兴趣的专家进行交流。每个项目的方案征集公告发布后,DARPA项目经理一般都会组织工业日,会见潜在的合作伙伴,加强科研人员间的交流,为组建联合研究团队提供机会。2015年,DARPA召开主题为“等什么,是什么”的未来技术论坛,邀请到1200多名创新者,研讨有潜力彻底改变人类生活和工作、提高国家安全的技术,促进企业、大学、非营利组织和政府机构等间的交流。


图4 DARPA未来技术论坛
2、良好的协同创新机制
美国认识到,创新本身就是一个各方协作的过程,特别在国防科技创新中,技术从萌芽到最终转化应用需要多方力量的参与,包括资助机构、研究机构、军方用户及其他参与部门。
DARPA在科研过程中注重各种机构的参与,包括国会、保障服务提供商、军方部门和工业部门等。DARPA评估发现只有这些部门都参与进来并发挥应有的作用时,技术的研发和转化才能顺利、有效地执行。比如,在规划阶段,DARPA就让军方部门参与进来,辅助确定技术的潜在军事用途、帮助起草招标书。
此外,DARPA还通过组织挑战赛,把国防承包商、创新型企业、各式各样的发明家、大学的研究学者们组织到一起,让他们有机会在同一起跑线上充分展现“金点子”,最终促进技术快速提高。
推动探索地下未知环境的DARPA“地下挑战赛”
四、完善的法律和诚信体系为科技创新保驾护航
1、对知识产权的严格保护
美国是最早将专利权写入宪法的国家,在1787年制定的宪法中就明确:“为推 动科学和实用技艺的进步,对作家和发明家各自的著作和发明,在一定期限内保障其享有排他的专利权”。这在很大程度上保护了科研人员的创新精神,鼓励科学家进行发明创造。美国于1980年通过《拜杜法》,允许大学和小企业保留政府资助项目产生的知识产权,消除了它们参与国防创新的顾虑,极大地鼓舞了更多企业参与国防科技创新。
按照《拜杜法》的规定,政府资助大型企业产生的知识产权仍由政府所有,但国会授权DARPA在特定情况下可以不遵守这项规定,用“其他交易”机制组织军工企业、大型商业企业、小企业和大学等各类力量参与国防科技创新,产出更多创新成果,最终使政府、企业及公众受益。
比如,DARPA与因特尔公司共同资助研发一种硅锗光电传感器,明确规定知识产权归因特尔所有。此后,因特尔组织弗吉尼亚大学、存储器技术厂商Numonyx公司等研制出高性能光电探测器,有效提高了军事通信能力并减少对外依赖。
2、良好的诚信体系
美国的科研人员很注重荣誉、信誉和口碑,科学家之间容易建立信任关系。在美国,一经认定某人在科研中行为不端,违反诚信规定,不管其名头多响、资历多深、贡献多大,要再参与任何由美国政府资助的研究项目都难上加难。美国卫生与公众服务部下设“科研诚实办公室”,专门负责调查和处置政府资助的科研项目“在立项、开展、评估或报告科研成果的过程中,出现的捏造、篡改或剽窃情况”,并在网上公布违规者的姓名、机构、违规情况与处罚决定。极强的道德自律和严格的制度设计营造出良好的诚信体系,正是在这样的体系下,DARPA项目经理与科研团队之间相互信任,项目管理也变得容易和简单。
3、对违法违规行为的严格惩罚
美国对违法违规行为的惩罚具有很强威慑力,切断了官研利益输送链条,避免了科研弄虚作假。一旦发现问题,对个人而言轻则意味着职业生涯的结束,重则接受法律的制裁;对企业而言轻则无法再承接政府项目,重则面临大的处罚或倒闭。美国通过《利益冲突法》《政府道德法》《虚假申报法》等法律,对政府官员或科研团队的违法违规行为进行预防、监督和惩罚。
美国重视规避政府决策中存在的利益冲突,为此颁布《利益冲突法》对政府官员进行监督和审查。DARPA雇员在工作中均要规避利益冲突,并接受对其个人及家庭收入和异常消费的监督,如果出现问题就可能遭到调查。
2011年,《洛杉矶时报》披露时任DARPA局长杜根与她此前创立的RedX公司在一份价值600万美元的合同上存在不正当关系。此后,国会、社会组织和国防部总监察长进行了调查,虽然未发现DARPA在合同选择、授予和管理上存在问题,但杜根多次在演讲或谈话中提到RedX公司的技术,违反了禁止国防部雇员利用职务之便认可某一企业的规定,这导致杜根在2012年3月辞职。
(蓝海星:孙兴村 穆玉苹)

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2018: DARPA Disruptive Technology: Lessons for China’s Military S&T I

The US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) has admirers in China and many other countries worldwide for its R&D work on innovative technological work that has been transforming modern warfare. Here is how the DARPA website characterizes its work:

For sixty years, DARPA has held to a singular and enduring mission: to make pivotal investments in breakthrough technologies for national security.

The genesis of that mission and of DARPA itself dates to the launch of Sputnik in 1957, and a commitment by the United States that, from that time forward, it would be the initiator and not the victim of strategic technological surprises. Working with innovators inside and outside of government, DARPA has repeatedly delivered on that mission, transforming revolutionary concepts and even seeming impossibilities into practical capabilities. The ultimate results have included not only game-changing military capabilities such as precision weapons and stealth technology, but also such icons of modern civilian society such as the Internet, automated voice recognition and language translation, and Global Positioning System receivers small enough to embed in myriad consumer devices.

DARPA explicitly reaches for transformational change instead of incremental advances. But it does not perform its engineering alchemy in isolation. It works within an innovation ecosystem that includes academic, corporate and governmental partners, with a constant focus on the Nation’s military Services, which work with DARPA to create new strategic opportunities and novel tactical options. For decades, this vibrant, interlocking ecosystem of diverse collaborators has proven to be a nurturing environment for the intense creativity that DARPA is designed to cultivate.

DARPA comprises approximately 220 government employees in six technical offices, including nearly 100 program managers, who together oversee about 250 research and development programs.

DARPA goes to great lengths to identify, recruit and support excellent program managers—extraordinary individuals who are at the top of their fields and are hungry for the opportunity to push the limits of their disciplines. These leaders, who are at the very heart of DARPA’s history of success, come from academia, industry and government agencies for limited stints, generally three to five years. That deadline fuels the signature DARPA urgency to achieve success in less time than might be considered reasonable in a conventional setting.

From the note “About DARPA” on the DARPA website

More:

I found online several Chinese articles about DARPA that I will translate here into English. Here is the first in the series. I’ll copy the Chinese text below.

Chinese As a Security Classification: Translations Draw Attention, Original Taken Offline

Several times over the years, when I have shared information about interesting articles on PRC websites, the article has been taken down. Twenty years ago I found discussions in a Chinese veterinary journal about antibodies to avian flu viruses in Chinese peasants at a time when the Chinese government claimed that that virus was not present in China. A year later I noticed that article had been replaced that it had been taken off the CNKI database for national security reasons. More recently when I translated on this blog and article about Chinese concerns about the military applications of the Starlink communications satellite system (these days the Ukrainian military finds it useful) and how countermeasures against that system would be difficult. After I translated the article from the PRC journal Modern Defense TechnologyThe Development Status of Starlink and Its Countermeasures” 星链计划发展现状与对抗思考 on my blog as PRC Defense: Starlink Countermeasures, that article was taken online. Fortunately I had saved it to Dropbox where the sinoliterate can read it.

Reading Footnotes and References is Important

The footnotes too are an interesting part of the article. From the titles of the Chinese articles mentioned one can imagine some research interests and directions in China. When I worked in the U.S. Embassy Beijing Environment, Science and Technology section twenty years ago, there was great excitement in the United States about a book written by two PLA writer-generals entitled Unrestricted Warfare 《超限戰爭》that discussed how China could use a variety of innovative emerging technology to defeat a more powerful enemy. I wrote a series of reports sent to Washington analyzing the book and related matters. An unclassified versions of those reports released at the time on the U.S. Embassy website are still available via the Internet Archive at PRC National Security and EST Issues .

Reading Unrestricted Warfare 《超限戰》 and paying close attention to the footnotes, I realized that this was about mirroring . Sixty percent of the references in the book were US Department of Defense publications about emerging military technologies and unconventional warfare. The Chinese writer-generals (the PLA had singer-general too at the time — retired PLA Major General Peng Liyuan, the wife of PRC Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping, was one of them. For years she was far more famous than her husband!) were mirroring US concerns and research about unrestricted warfare. A distorted mirror image coming back was frightening some in the USA. Not to say that just because you are paranoid that they aren’t out to get you. Capabilities and intentions are two different things, although militaries around the world have the responsibility to prepare for the worst. Reading footnotes is important!

On this blog I have shared several translation about reform in the PRC national defense industry sector and the applications of the statistical quality control revolution in improving the quality and speeding the development of PRC weapons system.


DARPA’s Disruptive Technology Innovation and Its Implications

Cao Xiaoyang1),Wei Yongjing1,Li Li1,Zhang Ke2,Miao Hongbo1,An Xiangchao1,Liu Anrong1
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10.15302/J-SSCAE-2018.06.020

Abstract

As a model for conducting disruptive technology innovation, the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) has been followed by an increasing number of countries, government departments, and large enterprises, which are competing to conduct disruptive technology innovation by referring to the DARPA model. However, few can match DARPA thus far. There is no consensus on how to build a brilliant DARPA-like organization. From the practical experience of various subjects imitating DARPA in the last decade or so, DARPA’s explicit organizational structure and operational mechanism are the basis but not the essence of DARPA’s success This paper analyzes the historical process of DARPA’s growth from the perspective of evolutionary theory, and discusses the reasons for DARPA’s success in terms of growth environment, competitive dynamics, interest pattern, and holding to its core values. The author believes that DARPA’s success is the result of long-term friction and struggle within the development environment, and firm faith in technological progress, originality, extremely low institutional chauvinism, its pattern of tearing down barriers between various ideas interests, and its forward-looking strategic vision are the pillars of DARPA’s success. Through the experience of DARPA, this paper argues that a special management approach-“in vitro” special zones-is needed to accelerate the development of China’s own disruptive technologies.

Keywords:
disruptive technologies ; disruptive technology innovation ; DARPA ; “in vitro” special zones

I. Introduction

Disruptive technologies have been described as revolutionary forces that “change the rules of the game” and “reshape the future” [1]. They are a revolutionary force that has a wide and profound impact on human society: it drives the evolution of human civilization, influences the rise and fall of world powers, determines the survival of an organization, and changes people’s production life. Before the modern era, although disruptive technologies have been born and have been changing the way of production and life of human beings and promoting the progress of human society, people have not yet formed the consciousness to actively identify and cultivate disruptive technologies, and disruptive technologies have gone through a long “natural development stage”.

As technology developed and the U.S. and Soviet Union competition intensified, the U.S. government took the lead in disruptive technology innovation, pushing disruptive technology into the “fast lane” of development. After World War II, the Soviet Union shocked the United States by conducting nuclear tests and successfully launching artificial satellites. The U.S. government reflected on its own military science and technology innovation system and began to realize the need to consciously and systematically cultivate high-risk, high-reward technologies to prevent a Soviet high tech attack. In this context, in 1958, the U.S. created the Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA), renamed the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) in 1972, with the purpose of conducting “game-changing” research and development of high-risk, high-reward technologies, “avoiding technology surprise and pursuing technology surprise against adversaries. The DARPA model has been shown to foster a large number of disruptive technologies, such as Internet technology, global positioning technology, and stealth warplane technology, which have played an important role in maintaining the U.S. military’s technological leadership and national security [2,3].

The DARPA model has gradually matured and expanded its influence, gaining popularity in the U.S. government and among business enterprise. It has been emulated by major and powerful countries around the world. The U.S. government has established DARPA-like advanced research projects programs in many departments such as the Department of Homeland Security and the Department of Energy, and formed a corresponding unique program support system. In recent years, the development of information technology represented by the Internet has accelerated knowledge accumulation and technological innovation. Disruptive technologies have emerged that are getting more and more attention from enterprises and the public. Many enterprises are involved in the active development of disruptive technologies. With the combined effect of “state guidance, technology promotion, and market traction,” the U.S. has formed a disruptive technology innovation system that originates from the strategic needs of national defense, is rooted in the soil of national innovation, extends to the national economic system, and fully follows the laws and characteristics of disruptive technologies. This paper analyzes the historical process of the formation of DARPA’s disruptive technology innovation management model from the perspective of evolutionary theory, explores the reasons for DARPA’s success, and gains relevant insights.

II. Overview of DARPA

(I) Mission
DARPA is an executive agency of the U.S. Department of Defense whose mission is to be responsible for “game-changing” high-risk, high-reward technology research and development, “avoiding technology surprise and pursuing technology surprise against adversaries,” and maintaining U.S. leadership in the latest military technologies. The Directorate was established in 1958 and has a staff of more than 200 people, most of whom are top experts and scholars in various disciplines [3,4].

(II) Organizational Model and Operating Mechanism
DARPA is a typical flat project management organization, based on the project manager system, and adopts the two-level decision-making structure of “specialized field department – technical project manager”, which is highly flexible. In terms of personnel, DARPA uses four methods: permanent full-time, permanent part-time, full-time appointment, and part-time appointment, and the project manager is managed under the principle of “limited management” in which the project manager works with the project. In the project implementation, the project is managed by a “recruitment – visioning – project initiation – portfolio management – technology translation” approach, especially the technology innovation-oriented principle in the project decision, investment, promotion and exit process, and the adoption of policy innovations such as brainstorming sessions [3~6].

DARPA has seven technical program offices, about 100 program managers, and an annual budget of roughly $3 billion allocated to more than 200 research projects. less than 1% of national research and development (R&D) funding and less than 4% of the DoD research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&R) budget is allocated to DARPA. the organizational structure of DARPA is shown in Figure 1 [4].

Figure 1 Organizational Structure of DARPA via Google Lens. For Chinese language original see below.

Analysis of DARPA’s Experience with Disruptive Innovation

In the context of “Everybody loves DARPA”, Chinese and foreign consulting organizations, think tanks, academics and DARPA itself have started to explore the sources of innovation, project management, organizational model or transformation mechanism of DARPA to prove the feasibility of replicating DARPA. Some departments or companies have even hired former DARPA directors or program managers to prepare and manage the newly established agencies. These people include Jane Alexander, the first Deputy Director of the Homeland Security Advanced Research Projects Agency (HSARPA) (formerly DARPA Deputy Director), and Regina Dugan, head of Google’s Advanced Technology and Programs (ATAP) (formerly DARPA Director). Few have been able to match DARPA’s achievements to date. HSARPA in particular, which has been in existence for over 10 years, has been heavily criticized. In general, there is no consensus on how to build another brilliant DARPA and no example of anyone ever having done so.

From the practical experience of various entities imitating DARPA in the last decade or so, the explicit organizational structure and operation mechanism of DARPA are the basis but not the essence of DARPA’s success. On the basis of reading considerable material, the authors here attempt to determine and explain the reasons for DARPA’s success from the perspective of environment and strategy.

(1) The harsh survival environment is the main driving force of DARPA’s innovation and change

The environment shapes organizations, and DARPA is no exception. Especially in the first ten years of DARPA’s existence, it faced serious survival challenges.

Infighting within the US Military

The 1950s were the most intense period of infighting among the three branches of the U.S. military, resulting in serious problems of duplication and fragmentation, and inefficient research and development. Then President Eisenhower abhorred the infighting among the three branches of the military and, taking advantage of the tremendous shock caused by the Soviet Union’s successful satellite launch, established DARPA with the intention, among other things, of breaking the competition between the interests of the various branches of the military. This sowed the seeds of conflict between DARPA and the three services. DARPA’s core interest was to ensure its survival in the competition with the three services, and the subsequent history shows that DARPA was nearly abolished as a result.

Establishment of NASA Drained DARPA Resources

When NASA was established in October 1958, the Department of Defense transferred DARPA’s military space mission, a core activity of the agency that accounted for nearly two-thirds of its funding, to NASA, and for the first time DARPA faced an existential challenge.

Deterioration of DARPA’s Environment

  • The relationship between the military and academia was increasingly strained by the Vietnam War, so that most university researchers were disillusioned with the Department of Defense and national security policy and refused to participate in defense research projects.
  • The economic environment, the salary gap between the U.S. federal government and industry has widened significantly, resulting in a serious brain drain from federal government agencies;
  • The high unemployment rate has also contributed to a decrease in the flow of talent from industry or universities, and DARPA has been unable to attract talent.
  • Shifts in DoD S&T management policy and senior-level changes have weakened DARPA’s status, and its programs were no longer of interest to the Secretary of Defense or involved in major national policy issues.

The combination of these factors made DARPA less of a “research powerhouse” in the United States.

During its first decade, DARPA faced the prospect of being abolished several times. Faced with these enormous pressures, the agency was prompted to make three major changes:

  • DARPA’s first leaders were asked to reflect on and insist on the uniqueness of DARPA. According to then-DARPA Director Lukasik, this was like embracing the “kiss of death” because uniqueness is hard to recognize. But it was this persistence that planted DARPA’s innovation gene, which led to a large number of “mad scientists” eager to change the world and spread their own way of doing things.
  • Do high-risk, challenging tasks that other military services are reluctant to undertake. After the loss of its main business, it began to engage in other military services are reluctant to touch the difficult, cross-services, and national security projects, and eventually established a business positioning and their own status.
  • Weakening its institutional chauvinism allowed DARPA to break down the barriers of its own interests, continuously improve the relationship with the three services, industry, and the scientific community, and improve management in due course.

This difficult process forged DARPA’s ability to break through the explicit and implicit barriers that impede the emergence of disruptive technology and innovations:

  • Barriers of special interests,
  • Barriers of academic discipline,
  • Barriers of schools of thought,
  • Barriers of outstanding talents, and
  • Barriers of success and failure.

(2) Not forgetting its original intention was for DARPA formula to avoid falling into the system ossification and maintain the innovation vitality [Translator’s note: “Not forgetting your original intention (bù wàng chūxīn  不忘初心 ) (ideals) when you joined in joining the Communist Party” is a popular Xi Jinping meme in China today. End note]

Under the combined effect of enormous competitive pressure from the three military forces and the persistence of scientists, DARPA has always kept its original intention and worked around the mission of “developing future weapons systems” and “maintaining U.S. technological leadership and preventing potential adversaries from unexpectedly overtaking it”. DARPA, in order to prevent the organization from falling into a system ossification and keeping innovation alive, did this three things:

First, DARPA’s unique positioning has prevented the system from ossifying by staying true to its original mission. On the one hand, DARPA has always adhered to the most challenging S&T phase of the defense budget 6.1 ~ 6.3 work, also known as the Department of Defense “science and technology program” work, project success or verification will be handed over to the military for further development and end use. This model of letting go of a mature program prevents DARPA from being trapped in a solid innovation path and keeps innovation alive. On the other hand, it maintains the organization’s unique niche and does not expand for profit. For example, in the 1960s and early 1970s, there were occasional suggestions to centralize DoD basic research under DARPA, which were strongly opposed by several directors. Although DARPA was nearly abolished early on because of its bias toward funding basic research complexes, they were clear that DARPA was not a natural science funding board for the Department of Defense.

Second, without losing sight of the original intent, DARPA has been effective in restraining organizational self-inflation and avoiding the cannibalization of innovation by complex organizations. However, the U.S. Department of Defense directive on DARPA does grant it the authority to do so, and DARPA does build and own some facilities as needed for its programs. The difference, however, is that DARPA’s laboratories or facilities are not retained for long periods of time, but are transferred out as the technology of the program is transformed. This may seem to be a counterintuitive move, but it inhibits the organization from getting bigger and prevents it from being swallowed up by too much self-interest and system consolidation on innovation.

Third, it kept DARPA strong in its conviction and vision to support the development of many major disruptive technologies. Disruptive technology innovation tows operational concepts and equipment that can severely impact existing habits of use or operational ordinances, and there is tremendous resistance in the military services, requiring DARPA to lead disruptive technology development and complete demonstrations to gain acceptance by the military. At the same time, due to immature technology and incomplete support, the development process will face serious challenges and numerous setbacks. For example, in the case of stealth aircraft, DARPA overcame the opposition of the U.S. Air Force and developed the “Tacit Blue” stealth demonstrator overcoming many obstacles along the way. It is because of DARPA’s firm belief and foresight that the U.S. military has taken the lead in stealth technology and gradually changed the air combat style.

(3) DARPA has a strategic vision that transcends military, industry, and scientific field that provides important support for innovations in disruptive technologies

The basic path of DARPA program development is problem – idea – talent – project (group). DARPA is uniquely positioned to think beyond the scope of any particular military branch, industry, scientific field, and even academic discipline to consider major requirements to serve national security strategy. This made it easier to create the vision and foresight to foster disruptive technologies and to promote the development of new ideas and concepts needed for disruptive technology innovation. In the late 1950s, the consensus of the U.S. military was that its command and control systems could not meet the urgent need for rapid decision-making in an increasingly complex and rapidly changing military environment. In 1961 President Kennedy called for the Army to improve its command and control systems. To this end, DARPA established the Information Processing Technology Office (IPTO) and invited Professor J.C.R. Licklider of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) to serve as its first director. Although it was a pressing military need and a presidential mandate, DARPA did not get bogged down in the immediate needs and specific problems of the military services, but based on Licklider’s idea of “human-machine symbiosis,” believing that human-machine interaction is the essence of command and control problems, and has been conducting long-term, sustained research on the subject. Since then, IPTO has followed Licklider’s ideas and gradually opened up many new areas of computer science and information processing technology, producing such cross-generation disruptive technologies as ArpaNet, which has had a profound impact.

The importance of the problem has been emphasized by several DARPA directors. For example, in a 2006 interview, Robert Sproull argued that the lack of big problems has limited other agencies from following the DARPA model [7]. The great thing about DARPA is that it has always been able to knock down barriers of ideas at the right time — breaking down those barriers that prevent them from converging and creating the ability to identify good ideas. This is even more important than the ability to come up with good ideas.

(4) High mobility is the source of innovation vitality

DARPA maintains an average annual turnover rate of about 25 percent, with the Director’s position experiencing greater turnover, and the actual average tenure of the Director to date has been about 30 months. Ideas come from talent, and this high mobility, first, constantly infuses fresh blood, bringing new ideas and new collisions to become a source of innovation. Secondly, high mobility breaks the natural enemy of innovation – inertia and inertia of thinking. DARPA believes that inertia and inertia of human thinking is the natural enemy of innovation, thus no one can continuously innovate, and it is through the rotation of personnel that new ideas can be continuously brought. Lastly, high mobility somehow prevents bureaucracy from growing. To avoid bureaucracy and to keep the structure lean, DARPA generally does not hire researchers for more than six years.

(5) Faith in Technological Solutions is the Spiritual Pillar Supporting DARPA Innovation

First, DARPA is a place to pursue innovative dreams, not for earning high salaries. What “mad scientists” expect from their short stint at DARPA is the disruptive success of turning ideas into reality. They seek a sense of accomplishment that can influence history in some way. The amount of reward is not a direct criterion of their “endless imagination and creativity. This attitude has attracted many talented people to join DARPA regardless of salary differences or pay cuts. This to some extent keeps some profit-oriented people on the outside.

Second, a faith in technology founded on allowing failure. This stimulates the enthusiasm and innovation of DARPA researchers. When discussing the innovation culture of DARPA’s disruptive technologies, the attitude of “allowing failure” comes to mind [8]. It is true that DARPA’s failure rate in investment is “no less” than its historical success, but this cannot be simply attributed to a “tolerance for failure”. DARPA’s tolerance of failure is based on a strategic vision that keeps up with the times. DARPA’s is a creative ability that is not overly focused on success or failure or on transient, mediocre results. This will stimulate researchers’ enthusiasm and desire for innovation, and create a good culture of innovation.


Third, the innovative spirit of “trust” based on technical beliefs plays a crucial role in the “orderly conduct” of team innovation research. Compared with traditional research institutions, DARPA gives project managers and researchers greater autonomy. When a researcher has a bold idea for a project, he or she can share it equally with colleagues or the project manager; and the project manager can effectively communicate the mature concepts developed during the “brainstorming phase” to the DARPA Director and solicit his or her support. Under the influence of DARPA’s innovative spirit of “trust”, project investigators are more willing to become the driving force behind DARPA’s “alliance of interest”.

Insights

DARPA’s growth history is worth remembering. Historically, DARPA was a very small and insignificant organization with many problems. It faced severe challenges to its survival and hovered on the “edge of life and death” for a long time. For example, after the loss of its core business [to NASA] it had little to live on. The three main military services had been in competition for a long while to find a business model. With low salaries it was hard to recruit talented people (the average age of DARPA program managers in the 1960s and 1970s is about 30 years old), and even the position of DARPA Director was long vacant. He was kicked out of the Pentagon by the Department of Defense and turned into an “exile in Siberia” That is not what a shining star is supposed to look like. But what seems “counterintuitive” is the truth; it is the “counterintuitive” that makes for good disruptive technology innovation. The following are important insights from the DARPA story.

(1) The Greatest Obstacle to Disruptive Technological innovation is the Organization Itself

As a revolutionary force that can zero in on traditional industries’ investment, industry, technology, talent, and rules, disruptive technology is not simply a technology itself, but contains two major conflicts: management and technology. On the one hand, a new transitional technology or disruptive technology often does not fit in with the existing supporting technology system, industry system, or even business base and business model. Thus there is a huge conflict with the existing technology system in its growth process; on the other hand, the existing management system is hindering or even rejecting the development of disruptive technology.

  • First, the existing value network stifles the germination of emerging disruptive technologies. New disruptive technologies will reconfigure existing models and patterns, and face serious conflicts in resources, processes, and values within the organization [9], making it almost impossible to gain space to grow.
  • Second, conflicts of interest make it impossible to internally thicken the soil for disruptive technology innovation. The barriers of ideas, interests, departments, and groups that are formed by the solidification of interests within the organization do not provide the soil for the acceptance of emerging disruptive technologies within the organization.
  • Third, institutional rigidity wipes out the vitality of disruptive technology innovation. The ossification of the organizational structure and the rigidity of the operation mode form a serious path dependency, which makes stimulating the innovative vitality of disruptive technologies within the organization difficult.

Due to two major conflicts between technology and management, it is difficult for disruptive technologies to be born and nurtured within traditional organizations. In the face of disruptive technological change, the better the original technology once was and the better it was managed, the faster the company fails. Industry giants that dominate in talent, technology, and capital are often the losers of disruptive change. For example, Kodak “invented the digital camera, but was subverted by the digital camera”.

The story of DARPA also confirms this judgment. As the U.S. military-industrial complex was already facing the problems of ossification, special interests and rigid innovation when DARPA was founded. This made it difficult to cultivate “rule-changing” disruptive technologies. The story of DARPA tells us that the greatest resistance to disruptive technology innovation is within the organization itself. A profound self-revolution [Note: Another current Communist Party meme is to make a self-revolution to improve oneself. In January 2022 Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping called on communist party members to “always maintain a spirit of self-revolution” zìwǒ gémìng 自我革命 End note.] is needed to successfully carry out disruptive technology innovation.

(2) Accelerating the Development of Disruptive Technologies Requires a Unique Management Approach – the “In Vitro” Zone

From DARPA’s successful experience, an organization needs a unique management model – an “extra-corporeal” zone (DARPA is a U.S. Department of Defense “extracorporeal” zone) – to successfully carry out disruptive technology innovation. It needed to create a special zone that is not imprisoned by the organization’s existing value network. In the face of disruptive innovation, countries and industry giants alike are choosing to set up new management structures outside their existing systems, such as DARPA, GoogleX, and the popular XLab.

  • Mission : The mission of innovation is to mobilize the resources of the whole community and to build innovation on the overall ecology.
  • Business orientation: transcend all businesses and departments, and do not fall into specific set orientations. We only do the “budding” part and then transfer the projects to other departments after they are validated, so as not hobble our innovation chain.
  • Institutional mechanism: set up a special “institution” that does not operate according to the existing value network (resources, processes, values). The organization should be small, the management should be flat, and the projects should be flexible.
  • Implementation guarantee: “cut off your own ass”, suppress institutional chauvinism, do not take part in specific business direction and departments, cultivate the big picture and long-distance vision. “Cut off your hands and feet”, means not to be a large entity, to maintain flexibility and avoid falling into institutional ossification. “Push down partition barriers”, push down all kinds of barriers that hinder the convergence of ideas and talents, including barriers of ideas, barriers of special interests, barriers of departments, barriers of business and barriers of group factions.

Acknowledgements


The historical materials cited in this paper are mainly from the DARPA story compiled by Professor Huang Simin of Tsinghua University and the consulting report “DARPA’s Road to Disruptive Technology Innovation” written by Professor Huang Simin, and the guidance and help from Professor Huang Simin in writing this paper, I would like to express my sincere thanks!


References
[1] Christensen C. The innovator’s dilemma: When new technologies cause great firms to fail [M]. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 1997.
[2] David T. “DARPA’s disruptive technologies” [J]. MIT Technology Review, 2001, 104(8): 42-46. link1
[3] Hao Junchao, Wang Haiyan, Li Zhe. “The DARPA Research Program Organization Model and its Implications for China” [J]. Science and Technology Progress and Countermeasures, 2015, 32(9): 6-9. Science & Technology Progress and Policy, 2015, 32(9): 6-9.
[4] Zhi Qiang, Mengruo Lin. “A study of DARPA’s innovative program management approach [J]. Science and Technology Management”, 2015, 36(10): 12-22. Zhi Q, Lin M R. “The management of DARPA and its implication to China” [J]. Science of Science and Management of S. & T., 2015, 36(10): 12-22.
[5] Yuan Cheng. “Analysis of DARPA’s interests in implementing disruptive technology innovation” [J]. Modern Military, 2017 (5): 105-109.
[6] Jia ZJ, Shi HM. “What is the secret of disruptive technological innovation in the U.S. military” [J]. Military Digest, 2015 (9): 54-57.
[7] Huang S M. The role of ‘opportunity coincidence’ in DARPA’s disruptive innovation [N]. Study Times, 2016-02-18 (07).
[8] Jia JZ, Zeng HF, Liu JF. “Pre-research model, management, and culture of disruptive military technologies in the United States: the case of Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA)” [J]. Natural Dialectics Research, 2016, 32(1): 41-45.
[9] Clayton-Christensen. The innovator’s dilemma [M]. Hu, Jianqiao. Beijing: Zhongxin Publishing House, 2014. Christensen C M. The innovator’s dilemma [M]. Translated by Hu J Q. Beijing: CITIC Publishing House, 2014.


DARPA的颠覆性技术创新及其启示

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曹晓阳1),魏永静1,李莉1,张科2,苗红波1,安向超1,刘安蓉1
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10.15302/J-SSCAE-2018.06.020引用这篇文章

摘要
作为开展颠覆性技术创新的典范,美国国防高级研究计划局(DARPA)被越来越多的国家、政府部门和大型企业所追随,其争相参照DARPA模式开展颠覆性技术创新。但是,至今鲜有能与DARPA相匹配的成就,对于如何才能再建一个辉煌的DARPA还没有共识。从最近十几年各类主体模仿DARPA的实践经验来看,DARPA显性化的组织结构和运行机制是DARPA成功的基础,但不是精髓。本文从演化论的角度,分析了DARPA成长的历史过程,从成长环境、竞争态势、利益格局、价值追求等方面探讨了DARPA成功的原因。笔者认为DARPA的成功是与发展环境长期磨合、斗争的结果,坚定的信仰与初心、极低的本位主义、拆掉各种思想和利益之墙的格局、前瞻的战略视野是DARPA成功的重要支柱。通过DARPA的经验,本文认为要加快颠覆性技术的发展需要特殊的管理方式——“体外”特区。
关键词
颠覆性技术 ; 颠覆性技术创新 ; DARPA ; “体外”特区
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一、前言
颠覆性技术被称为“改变游戏规则”“重塑未来格局”的革命性力量 [1],对人类社会有广泛且深刻的影响:推动人类文明的演进发展、影响世界强国的更替兴衰、决定一个组织的生死存亡、改变人们的生产生活。近代社会以前,虽然颠覆性技术不断诞生,并一直改变人类生产和生活方式,推动着人类社会的进步,但人们还没有形成主动识别、培育颠覆性技术的意识,颠覆性技术经历了漫长的“自然发展阶段”。
随着技术发展和美苏竞争,促使美国政府率先介入颠覆性技术创新,把颠覆性技术推进了发展的“快车道”。第二次世界大战后,苏联相继进行了核试验并成功发射人造卫星,震惊美国。美国政府反思军事科技创新体系,开始意识到需要有意识、系统性地培育高风险高回报的技术,以防止苏联的技术突袭。在此背景下,1958 年美国创建了先进研究计划局(ARPA),1972 年更名为美国国防高级研究计划局(DARPA)。DARPA 的宗旨就是开展“改变游戏规则”的高风险、高回报技术研发,“避免技术突袭并谋求对对手的技术突袭”。事实表明,通过 DARPA 模式培育了大量颠覆性技术,例如互联网技术、全球定位技术、隐身战机技术等,对保持美国军事技术领先优势,维护国家安全发挥了重要作用 [2,3]。
DARPA 模式逐步成熟,影响不断扩大,在美国政府、企业获得推广,并被世界大国、强国争相效仿。美国政府在国土安全、能源部等众多领域成立类 DARPA 的先进研究项目局,并形成相应独特的计划支持体系。近年来以互联网为代表的信息技术发展,使知识积累和技术创新加速,颠覆性技术层出不穷,颠覆性技术受到越来越多的企业、公众的重视。众多企业参与到主动培育颠覆性技术的行列。在“国家引导、技术推动、市场牵引”的共同作用和长期磨合下,美国形成了发端于国防战略需求,扎根于国家创新土壤,延展到国民经济体系,充分遵循颠覆性技术的规律特点的颠覆性技术创新体系,而 DARPA 正是这一体系的核心与精髓。本文从演化论的角度,分析 DARPA 颠覆性技术创新管理模式形成的历史过程,探讨了 DARPA 成功的原因,获得了相关启示。

二、DARPA 概况

(一)使命定位
DARPA 是美国国防部属下的一个行政机构,其使命是负责“改变游戏规则”的高风险、高回报技术研发,“避免技术突袭并谋求对对手的技术突袭”,保持美国在最新军事技术方面的领先地位。该局成立于 1958 年,现有工作人员 200 余人,其中多为各学科一流的专家、学者 [3,4]。

(二)组织模式与运行机制
DARPA 是典型的扁平化项目管理组织,以项目经理人制度为重要基础,采用“专业领域部门 –技术项目经理人”的两级决策为核心的组织结构,具有高度的灵活性。在人事方面,DARPA 采用常任专职、常任兼职、聘任专职和聘任兼职等 4 种方式,并以项目经理与项目同进退的“有限管理”原则开展项目经理人的管理。在项目实施中,采用“招聘 – 制定愿景 – 启动项目 – 组合管理 – 技术转化”的方式开展项目管理,尤其是其在项目决策、投资、推进和退出流程中秉承的技术创新导向原则,采取头脑风暴会议等政策创新 [3~6]。
DARPA 设有 7 个技术项目办公室,100 名左右项目经理人,每年大概有 30 亿美元的预算分配给 200 多个研究项目。DARPA 的经费只占国家研究及开发(R&D)资金的不到 1%,以及国防部研究、开发、试验及评估(RDT&R)预算的不到 4%。DARPA 的组织结构如图 1 所示 [4]。


图 1 DARPA 的组织结构


三、DARPA 开展颠覆性创新的经验分析
在“Everybody loves DARPA”的背景下,中外咨询机构、智库、学术界以及 DARPA 自身也开始探索 DARPA 的创新源泉、项目管理、组织模式或转化机制等问题,求证复制 DARPA 的可行性。一些部门或企业甚至聘用 DARPA 原局长或项目经理负责筹建和管理新成立的机构,如国土安全高级研究计划局(HSARPA)的首任副局长 Jane Alexander(原 DARPA 副局长),以及 Google 的先进科技与计划部(ATAP)的负责人 Regina Dugan(原 DARPA局长),但是至今为止鲜有能与 DARPA 相匹配的成就,特别是建立已有 10 余年的 HSARPA 就饱受诟病。总体来讲,对于如何才能再建一个辉煌的DARPA 还没有共识,也无例可循。
从最近十几年各类主体模仿 DARPA 的实践经验来看,DARPA 显性化的组织结构和运行机制是DARPA 成功的基础,但不是精髓。在阅读大量资料的基础上,笔者尝试从环境、战略的视角解读DARPA 成功的原因。

(一)恶劣的生存环境是 DARPA 创新求变的主要驱动力
环境塑造组织,DARPA 也不例外。特别是在 DARPA 创办的最初十几年里,面临严重的生存挑战。
一是面临三军激烈的生存竞争。20 世纪 50 年代,是美国三军内斗最激烈的时期,导致美军重复建设、不成体系等问题十分严重,研发效率低下。时任美国总统艾森豪威尔对三军内斗深恶痛绝,并借苏联成功发射卫星给美国上下造成的巨大震撼,成立了 DARPA,用意之一就是破解各军种间的利益之争。这为 DARPA 和三军之间的冲突埋下了种子。在与三军的竞争中确保自身的生存也成为DARPA 的核心利益,后续历史也表明,DARPA 险些因此而被撤销。
二是成立初期失去安身立命的业务。1958 年10 月美国航空航天局(NASA)成立,国防部随即把 DARPA 的军用航天任务(该局的一项核心工作,占经费近 2/3)划给 NASA。DARPA 首次面对生存挑战。
三是生存环境恶化。首先是受越战影响,军方与学术界的关系也日益紧张,以致多数高校科研人员对国防部和国家安全政策的幻想渐渐破灭而拒绝参加国防科研项目。其次是在经济环境方面,美国联邦政府与工业界薪资差距显著扩大,联邦政府机构人才外流严重;加之高失业率也促使业界或高校人才流动减少,DARPA 吸引不到人才。再次是国防部科技管理政策转向和高层变动,使 DARPA 地位不断弱化,其项目不再为国防部长所关注、也不再介入主要国家政策问题。这些因素交织到一起,使得 DARPA 不再是美国的“科研高地”。
DARPA 成立最初的十几年经历了多次生存危机,数次面临被撤销的险地。面对巨大环境压力,促使该局进行三大转变:
一是,促使最初领导者思考和坚守 DARPA 的独特性。时任 DARPA 局长卢卡西克认为,这就像拥抱“死亡之吻”,因为独特性很难被认可。但正是这样的坚持种下 DARPA 的创新基因,才引起一大批想改变世界、实现自我的“科学狂人”的价值认同,并欣欣向往之。
二是,做其他军种不愿承担的高风险、挑战性任务。失去主业后,该局不得不寻找出路,开始从事其他军种不愿意触碰的高难度、跨军种、与国家安全关系重大的项目,并最终确立了业务定位与自身地位。
三是,弱化了本位主义,使 DARPA 打破自身的利益屏障,不断改善与三军、工业界、科学界之间的关系,适时改进管理。正是这个艰难过程,造就了 DARPA 打破各种束缚颠覆性技术创新要素汇聚的显性和隐性之墙的能力,包括利益之墙、学科之墙、学派之墙、选才之墙、成败之墙。

(二) 不忘初心,是 DARPA 避免陷入体系固化,保持创新活力的良药
在三军巨大竞争压力和科学家坚持的共同作用下,DARPA 始终不忘初心,围绕“开发未来武器系统”“保持美国的技术领先地位,防止潜在对手意想不到的超越”的使命定位开展工作,避免组织陷入体系固化,永葆创新活力。
一是,不忘初心,使 DARPA 坚守独特的事业定位,有效防止体系固化。一方面 DARPA 始终坚持最具挑战性的 S&T 阶段国防预算中 6.1~6.3 项的工作,也被统称为国防部“科学与技术计划”工作,项目成功或验证后即移交给军方进行进一步研发和最终使用。这种成熟一个放手一个的工作模式,避免 DARPA 陷入创新路径固化,保持创新活力。另一方面能坚守组织的独特定位,不唯利扩张。例如,在 20 世纪 60 年代到 70 年代初期,不时有声音建议将国防部的基础研究集中起来,划归 DARPA 统一管理,遭到几任局长的强烈反对。虽然早期因其偏向资助基础研究的情结,导致 DARPA 差点被撤销,但是他们清楚 DARPA 不是国防部的自然科学基金委员会。
二 是, 不 忘 初 心, 使 DARPA 有 效 抑 制 组织的自我膨胀,避免复杂组织对创新的吞噬。DARPA 没有实验室或科研设施。但是,美国国防部关于 DARPA 的指令是授予了其相关权限,DARPA 也的确根据项目需要建造和拥有过一些相应设施。但是不同的是,DARPA 的实验室或设施不会长期保留,而是随着项目的技术转化而转移出去。看是有悖常理的举措,却抑制了组织做大,防止组织因过多的自身利益和体系固化对创新活力的吞噬。
三是,不忘初心,使 DARPA 坚定信念,保持远见卓识,支撑众多重大颠覆性技术发展。颠覆性技术创新牵引的作战概念和装备,会严重冲击现有使用习惯或作战条令,在军种阻力巨大,需要DARPA 引领颠覆性技术研发并完成演示才能得到军方的接受。同时由于技术不成熟,配套不完备,研发过程会面临严峻挑战和众多挫折。例如在隐身飞机方面,DARPA 顶住了美国空军的反对意见,克服众多困难,研发了“海弗兰”隐身验证机。正是由于坚定信念和远见卓识,才使美军率先拥有了隐身技术,并逐渐改变了空中作战样式。

(三)超越军种、行业、领域的格局和前瞻的战略视野是颠覆性技术创新的重要支撑
DARPA 项目发展的基本路径是问题 – 思想 –人才 – 项目(群)。问题是 DARPA 颠覆性技术创新的重要支撑。DARPA 的独特定位使其能超越军种、行业、领域,甚至学科学派,在国家安全战略大格局下思考重大需求问题,更易催生颠覆性技术的视野和远见,推动颠覆性技术创新所需新思想、新理念的开拓。在 20 世纪 50 年代末,美国军方的共识是,其指挥与控制系统不能满足日益复杂和快速多变的军事环境下快速决策的紧迫需求,1961 年肯尼迪总统要求军队需要改善指挥与控制系统,在该国防安全重大问题提出以后,国防部指派 DARPA 负责此项目。为此 DARPA 成立了信息处理技术办公室(IPTO),并邀请麻省理工学院约瑟夫 · 利克莱德(J.C.R. Licklider)教授出任首任主任。虽然是军方的迫切需要和总统钦定的问题,但是 DARPA没有陷入军种的眼前需求和具体问题,而是基于利克莱德提出“人机共生”的思想,认为人机交互是指挥与控制问题本质,并就此开展长期、持续的研究工作。此后,IPTO 遵循着利克莱德的思想逐渐开辟出计算机科学与信息处理技术方面的很多新领域,培育出 ArpaNet 等跨时代性的颠覆性技术,产生了深远的影响。
DARPA 多位局长就强调过问题的重要性。例如,罗伯特 · 斯普罗尔(Robert Sproull)在 2006 年的一次访谈中就认为,缺乏大问题限制了其他机构效仿 DARPA 模式 [7]。同时,从问题转化为解决问题的思想是颠覆性技术创新的关键。DARPA 的伟大之处正是它总能够在恰当的时机推倒一堵堵阻碍思想汇聚之墙,打破禁锢思想的藩篱,造就了其识别好思想的能力,这点甚至比具备想出好思想的能力更重要。

(四)高流动性是保持创新活力的源泉
DARPA 保持平均每年大约 25% 的人员流动率,其中局长岗位流动更大,至今局长的实际平均任期大约为 30 个月左右。思想来自于人才,这种高流动性,首先,不断流入新鲜血液,带来新思想、新碰撞成为创新的源泉。其次,高流动率打破创新的天敌 —— 思维惯性和惰性。DARPA 认为人的思维惯性和惰性是创新的天敌,因而无人可以持续创新,通过人员的轮换才能不断带来新思想。最后,高流动性从某种程度上避免了官僚主义滋生。为避免官僚主义、保持结构精简,DARPA 对研究人员的聘用期一般不会超过 6 年。

(五)技术信仰是 DARPA 创新的精神支撑
一是基于技术信仰的价值认同,是 DARPA 的核心凝聚力。DARPA 是一个追求创新梦想的平台,而不是谋取高薪的地方。对于“疯狂的科学家们”在 DARPA 的短暂工作所期望获得的是将想法变为实际的颠覆性成功,是能在某种程度上影响历史的成就感,奖励的多少并不能成为他们进行“无穷想象与创造”的直接评判。正是基于这种技术信仰,DARPA 还是吸引了大量优秀人才不计薪酬差异或降薪加入,在某种程度上将一些以利益为目的的人士挡在了门外。
二是在技术信仰的基础上允许失败,激发起DARPA 研究人员的创新热情。在论及 DARPA 的颠覆性技术的创新文化上,都会想到其“允许失败”的创新态度 [8]。的确 DARPA 在投资上的失误率与它在历史上所缔造的辉煌相比,是“毫不逊色”的,但不能简单对此归结为“允许失败”。DARPA对失败的宽容是建立在紧随时代的战略眼光与超乎寻常的创造能力基础上,是不过分聚焦成败,关注短暂的、平庸的结果。这样更能激发研究人员的创新热情和挑战欲,营造良好的创新文化氛围。
三是在技术信仰基础上“强调信任”的创新精神对于团队创新研究的“有序开展”起到了至关重要的作用。相较于传统研究机构,DARPA 授予了项目经理与项目研究人员较大的自主权利。当研究人员对某一项目产生一个大胆的想法时,他可以将这种想法平等地与同事或者项目经理交流;而项目经理也能够将“大脑风暴阶段”所形成的成熟的概念有效地传达给 DARPA 局长,并争取他的支持。在 DARPA“强调信任”的创新精神的影响下,项目研究人员更自主地愿意成为 DARPA 这个“利益同盟”的推动者。

四、相关启示
DARPA 的 成 长 历 程 太 值 得 回 味, 历 史 上DARPA 是非常不起眼的“小机构”,存在诸多问题,面临严峻的生存挑战,长期徘徊在“生死边缘”。比如,失去核心业务不得不去啃“硬骨头”;和三军有严重竞争很长时间找不到业务定位;待遇不好,招不到优秀人才(20 世纪六七十年代DARPA 的项目经理平均年龄在 30 岁左右),甚至局长的位置都长期空缺;还被国防部赶出五角大楼,变成了远赴西伯利亚的“流放者”,这和当前闪耀明星的形象格格不入。但是看似“有悖常理”才是事实真相;正是“有悖常理”才能做好颠覆性技术创新。从 DARPA 的故事可以得到以下重要启示。

(一)颠覆性技术创新最大的阻力是组织自己
作为能使传统行业“投资、产业、技术、人才、规则”归零的革命性力量,颠覆性技术不是单纯的技术本身,而蕴含了管理和技术两大冲突。一方面,作为新生变轨技术,颠覆性技术往往与现有的配套技术体系、产业体系,甚至商业基础、商业模式不适应,在它成长过程中和现有技术体系存在巨大冲突;另一方面,现有的管理体系是阻碍甚至排斥颠覆性技术发展。一是现有价值网络扼杀新兴颠覆性技术的萌芽。新颠覆性技术会重构现有模式和格局,在组织内面临资源、流程、价值观的严重冲突 [9],几乎不可能获得成长空间。二是利益冲突使内部无法厚植颠覆性技术创新的土壤。组织内部利益固化形成的思想之墙、利益之墙、部门之墙、团派之墙,使组织内部没有接纳新兴颠覆性技术的土壤。三是机构僵化抹杀颠覆性技术创新活力,组织机构的固化,运行模式的僵化,形成严重的路径依赖,在组织内很难激发颠覆性技术的创新活力。
由于技术和管理两大冲突,颠覆性技术难以在传统组织内部孕育成长。面对颠覆性技术变革,在原有轨道上越优秀、管理越好的企业失败得越快。在人才、技术、资金各方面占优的行业巨头,往往是颠覆性变革的失败者。如柯达公司“发明了数码相机,却被数码相机颠覆”。
DARPA 的故事也印证了这一判断,DARPA 在成立时美国军工复合体已经面临利益固化、创新僵化的问题,难以培育“改变规则”的颠覆性技术,为了应对苏联的技术突袭,美国在军工复合体之外成立了 DARPA。而 DARPA 成功的重要原因,就是在极端环境下实施了自我革命,压制了本位主义、破除了各种阻碍、防止组织的僵化,克服了传统组织的一些固有缺点,保持创新的活力。DARPA 的故事告诉我们,颠覆性技术创新最大的阻力是组织自己,要成功开展颠覆性技术创新需要深刻的自我革命。

(二)加快颠覆性技术发展需要独特的管理方式——“体外”特区
从 DARPA 的成功经验来看,一个组织成功开展颠覆性技术创新需要独特的管理模式——“体外”特区(DARPA 是国防部的“体外”特区),即需要建立一个不受组织现有价值网络禁锢的特区。现实确实如此,当前面对颠覆性创新,无论国家、行业巨头都选择在现有体系之外设置新的管理架构,如 DARPA、GoogleX 以及当下流行的XLab。从 DARPA 的经验来看,“体外”特区有以下特点。
使命定位:以创新为使命,以调动全社会的资源为手段,把创新建立在整体生态之上。
业务定位:超越所有业务、部门,不陷入具体方向。只做萌芽段,项目得到验证便转到其他部门,不被创新链捆死。
体制机制:成立专门“机构”,运行不进入现有的价值网络(资源、流程、价值观)。机构规模要小、管理要扁平化、项目要灵活。
实施保障:“削去屁股”,压制本位主义,不把位置坐在具体业务方向和部门上,培养大格局和长距视野。“砍掉手脚”,不做大实体,保持灵活性,避免陷入机构固化。“推倒隔墙”,推倒各种阻碍思想、人才汇聚之墙,包括思想之墙、利益之墙、部门之墙、业务之墙、团派之墙。

致谢
本文引用的史料主要来自清华大学黄四民教授整理的 DARPA 故事和黄四民教授执笔的咨询报告《DARPA 的颠覆性技术创新之路》,在文章撰写中也得到了黄四民教授的指导与帮助,在此表示衷心的感谢!
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Behind PRC Vaccine Import Reluctance: Bioweapon Anxiety?

One of the most striking aspects of the global vaccine response to COVID (once on stops to wonder at it) is how compartmented it is.

  • The US-Europe response that has successfully produced several mRNA vaccines that are effective at reducing infections but also and more importantly, if infected greatly reducing the severity of the disease compared with most people who are unvaccinated. Those vaccines are being used in most of the world.
  • There is the Russian Federation vaccine that also produced its own vaccine and does not use foreign vaccines. The Russian vaccines are apparently less effective than the US-Europe produced vaccines, that are also used in some countries outside of Russia.
  • There is the Chinese effort. China does not use foreign vaccines but has produced several vaccines that while providing important protection to its population are significantly less effective than the US-Europe vaccines. According to a May 2022 Xinhua press reports, a Chinese mRNA vaccine expected to be more effective will be available towards the end of 2022.

Why Do Vaccine Blocs Resemble Military Blocs?

The vaccine bloc picture resembles George Orwell’s novel 1984 in which three megabloc constantly battled one another for world supremacy. Is our world so dark, or if that is an exaggeration, is it that dark in the darkest nightmare of the national security thinker of the US, Russia and China. Not being like the old time radio hero “The Shadow” who always asked “Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men? The Shadow knows!” I can only speculate.

Every country (perhaps — there are 180+ of them so I can’t be sure about Andorra) requires a long series of safety and efficacy trials before a new drug is approved. Even so, three years into the epidemic, that doesn’t seem to be the explanation.

Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping has great pride in his Party and in China as he works to realize the Chinese renaissance and national greatness that will bring them up to nor just today’s G20 level but to the G2 level or maybe even someday to the G1 level. Yet even worries for saving the face of the Party and country may not be enough cause to reject help that could help save many lives as China tries to figure out the safest way of emerging from its current strategy of extremely onerous lockdowns on apartment blocs and entire cities for weeks on end with considerable human suffering.

Could Biotechnology Worries About Weaponized Vaccines — A Gene Drive Pearl Harbor Attack — Make China Reluctant to Import Foreign Vaccines?

Tong Zhao, a visiting scholar at Princeton‘s Program on Science & Global Security; and Senior fellow@CarnegieBeijing sent a tweet about this:

I was doubtful so I did an online search. After the doing the translations and reflections reflected below, I decided that Tong Zhao is right about this. China has paranoid politics and indeed the US also has a well-documented “paranoid style in American politics“.

I came up with the Baidu online encyclopedia article that I have translated below. Judging by the dates of the references at the end of the Baidu article, the encyclopedia article was written in mid 2022. I also translated the online articles mentioned in the footnotes. Those articles are also online and translated below. I gather from these articles which appeared in reputable publication such as Science and Technology Daily, Guangming Ribao and the public media account of the People’s Liberation Army that there is indeed considerable concern about a new generation of biological weapons that might even target the ethnicity of an enemy country. Three of the articles mention President Putin’s 2018 accusation that the US is collecting and surveying Russian genes perhaps to develop gene weapons against Russia. So perhaps Russian information (or disinformation?) plays a part here. I found an article about a Russian disinformation campaign about weaponized vaccines: DISINFO: THE PFIZER VACCINE COULD BE A BIOLOGICAL WEAPON.

All this seems bizarre to me. Wouldn’t China know that the vaccines are not biased against Chinese by asking many ethnic Chinese living in the US are not getting killed off by the vaccines? Even if this technology were possible and practical, wouldn’t gene weapons backfire against the US since the US military is most ethnically diverse on this particular planet? In the end, what matters sometimes is not what is true but what people are willing to believe. As John Milton wrote in Paradise Lost (putting words in the mouth of Satan) “The mind is its own place and, in itself can make a heaven of hell or a hell of heaven. If enough influential people in China believe that an ethnically-biased vaccine bioweapon is possible than that will weigh heavily in any decision on whether to use a foreign vaccine or not, no matter what the facts of the matter are.

What I found doesn’t prove anything. It is a kind of plausibility argument, which in turn would revolve around the question is what is the efficacy gap between Chinese and the mRNA vaccines used in many other countries? If that gap is very large, then one might look for reasons other than nationalism, national face or a preference for autonomous solutions, such as the exaggerated fears (seems to me) in Chinese sources that I found. How much are national policies influenced by irrational or exaggerated fears? I see this in some of the China discussions in the U.S. media — some of it greatly exaggerates China’s capacity and prospects. China has lots of problems too. We often see other countries and cultures through distorted mirrors.

Growing Chinese concerns about genetically-engineered weapons are reflected in the Chinese language are reflected in the Chinese language Wikipedia article on the subject, here via Google Translate. Whether these views about ethnically-biased bioweapons are plausible or not is not my point; if people believe these things they have consequences. As relations deteriorate and the Chinese Communist Party feels embattled and this feeling is communicated through state media it may deploy even more the technique of using national feeling to built support. That might make some implausible ideas more believable.

The tightening of regulations on the management of human genetic resources is related to the long-rumored research and development of genetic weapons in the world . In theory, it is possible to develop a virus that can strengthen its lethality against a specific ethnic group. For example, the SARS virus conspiracy theory has a total of 8,437 cases of infection worldwide and 8,437 cases in China. 7,764 cases, accounting for as high as 92%, and among Westerners, almost no one was infected with SARS. Among the infected countries in Southeast Asia, Singapore, where the Chinese are the majority, has the majority of infections. Therefore, SARS may be a genetic weapon developed by a certain country specifically for the Chinese . More than ten years later, there are still arguments that the probability of this being a natural condition is close to zero. In essence, conspiracy theories of man-made genetic weapons are spreading. However, in theory, it is very unlikely that the virus can target a certain group of people by itself. [3] Although it has been in the stage of international rumors for a long time, Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly announced for the first time at the meeting of the Russian Human Rights Commission on October 30, 2017 that someone is systematically collecting biological data of Russians with the intention of making genetic weapons, making this rumor the first time It is openly tabled by the world’s major powers [4] . This incident was linked to WuXi AppTec’s listing in the US and its relationship with US pharmaceutical companies [5] , leading to the spread of rumors that it made genetic weapons for foreign countries. [3] [6]

Wikipedia article 遺傳工程武器 [Genetically Engineered Weapons]

Worries About Vaccines as Potential Biological Weapons Are Not Unique to China

Arkansas GOP governor who is holding town halls to urge vaccinations said people he meets have called the shot a ‘bioweapon’ and talked about ‘mind control’

Just Because You are Paranoid Doesn’t Mean that Bioweapons Aren’t a Threat

Could biotech weapons be as big a threat as the PLA and some Chinese officials seem to believe? I looked around a bit on that score too. Concern about emerging technologies such as gene drives to transport new genes into living organisms and CRISPR a tool for making alterations in the genetic code of organisms are widespread. The UN Bioweapons Convention lacks effective inspection and compliance mechanisms.


Selected Translations from PRC domestic media


Baidu encyclopedia article: 基因武器 Gene Weapons

New Concept Weapons

Genetic weapons are new biological warfare agents developed using genetic engineering technology, also known as third-generation biological warfare agents. [6] Genetic weapons will be another direction of development of modern new concept weapons.

Genetic weapons, which use advanced genetic engineering, a new technology, similar to the engineering design approach, according to people’s needs through genetic recombination, in some disease-causing bacteria or viruses to access the genes that can fight ordinary vaccines or drugs, or in some microorganisms that would not cause disease to access disease-causing genes in the body to create biological weapons, especially the development of synthetic biology, can achieve artificial design and synthesis of nature does not exist The development of synthetic biology, in particular, allows the artificial design and synthesis of organisms or viruses that do not exist in nature. [1] It can alter the genetic material of non-pathogenic microorganisms to produce pathogenic bacteria with significant drug resistance, and exploit the differences in biochemical characteristics of human races to make such pathogenic bacteria pathogenic only to people with specific genetic characteristics, so as to selectively destroy the enemy’s living force.

Contents

  • Introduction
  • Classification
  • Characteristics
  • Use
  • Other related
  • Influencing the Future of Warfare
  • How to face
  • Power
  • Future
  • Imitation Virus
  • Attack on agricultural systems
  • Biomodulators
  • Synthetic viruses

Introduction

Genetic engineering in the military field is a weapon of genocide. Because any form of a person reflects his genes, killing with genetic weapons can be used to achieve genocide. For example, with genetic weapons one can kill only people with reddish-brown hair, or only people who are short or tall, with blue or black eyes. It has been revealed that some Western countries are preparing to create “race-mutating viruses” to kill people by applying targeted chemical or biological effects to human cells, tissues, organs, and body systems with group genetic characteristics, causing errors in the genetic code.

The rapid development of molecular genetics from the 1970s to the 1980s made it possible to develop genetic weapons. Genetic weapons are built on the basis of recombination of deoxyribonucleic acid, the carrier of genetic information. With the help of genetic engineering methods, gene isolation and recombination can be realized to form compound deoxyribonucleic acid, and on this basis, gene transfer can be realized with the help of microorganisms to ensure the acquisition of highly toxic toxins that can poison people, animals and plants, and to make biological weapons that can change biological weapons with genetic organs. [4]

Introduction of genetic material of obvious toxicity into bacterial viruses or human viruses allows obtaining bacterial weapons capable of killing a large number of people in a short period of time. Scientists expect that by 2005-2010, genetic engineering will yield even greater results in the field of bacterial biology, leading to the uncovering of mechanisms of toxin action and the production of drugs that can be used as weapons. ④

The study of innate and genetic differences between people and their subtle biochemical structures suggests that the possibility of developing so-called racial weapons exists. Scientists believe that in the not too distant future such weapons may be used to kill certain ethnic groups that are disliked by other ethnic groups. Differences in blood, skin color, and genetic structure will be the basis for such selection.

Research in the field of racial weapons is aimed at discovering the weakest points in the genes of certain ethnic groups and developing specialized vectors that can be used effectively. According to estimates of the famous American medical scientist R. Hammerschlag, the use of racial weapons with different expiration dates could kill 25-30% of the population of the attacked country. Note that in a nuclear war this amount of population loss is considered an “unacceptable loss”, which means that the country is defeated.

Genetic Weapons

Microbial genetic weapons are a common family in the biological weapons arsenal, including: the use of microbial genetic modification to produce new biological warfare agents, modification to construct known biological warfare agents, the use of genetic recombination methods to prepare new viral warfare agents; the transfer of genes that are naturally pathogenic to create new warfare agents that are more pathogenic; and the transfer of drug resistance genes to create new warfare agents that are more drug resistant.

Toxin genetic weapons natural toxins are produced by natural organisms, and their toxicity can be enhanced through biotechnology, and can also be made into more toxic hybrid genetic weapons not found in nature is the most tempting new member of the current arsenal of genetic weapons, and one of the most powerful. No successes have been reported, but the threat is real and imminent. Ethnic genetic weapons, also known as “ethnobombs,” are genetic weapons that target a specific ethnic or racial group. It is a new type of super-guided weapon that works only on specific genes and specific parts of a particular race, and is therefore completely harmless to other races.

Genetic modification uses genetic technology to process food to make enhanced or weakened genes to induce specific or multiple diseases and reduce the combat effectiveness of the opponent; it also develops genetic modification drugs to weaken the combat effectiveness of the opponent through drug induction or other control means, as well as to enhance the combat ability of our own soldiers and to produce future “super soldiers”.

Features

  1. Extremely lethal, extremely low cost
  2. Easy to use, flexible tactics
  3. Strong ability to distinguish between the enemy and us, only attacking and infecting specific groups of people
  4. Means of application and killing process is highly concealed, with a strong deterrent effect  
  5. A longer period of influence on the people in the area of use

Use

Genetic weapons can be used in a variety of simple ways. Bacteria, bacterial insects and microorganisms with disease-causing genes that have been genetically engineered and released can be put into major rivers, cities or transportation routes in other countries by hand, aircraft, missiles or artillery, allowing the virus to spread and multiply naturally, causing people and animals to suffer from an untreatable disease in a short period of time and causing them to lose their combat power quietly on the invisible battlefield. Because this weapon is not easy to detect and difficult to prevent and cure, some scientists are far more worried about it than some nuclear physicists were about the atomic bomb back then.

Concern about genetic weapons In studies of human genome diversity, it has been found that genetic differences do exist between human races. Such differences are likely to be exploited by racists and terrorists. They can use genetic engineering techniques to design and develop genetic weapons against a particular race based on the characteristics of genomic diversity of different races, thus posing a potential and great threat to the security of a particular race or country.

In terms of strategy, genetic weapons will bring about a significant change in the way of combat. The user only needs to put genetically engineered germs into another country before the war, or use aircraft or missiles to put microorganisms with disease-causing genes into other countries’ transportation routes or cities, allowing the virus to spread and multiply naturally, causing the enemy’s people and animals to suffer from an untreatable disease in a short period of time, thus losing their ability to fight. In addition, genetic weapons can recombine genes at will as needed, and genes that damage human intelligence can be inserted into some organisms. When people of a particular ethnic group are infected with this germ with genes that impair intelligence, they lose their normal intelligence.

Tactically, genetic weapons, since they are not easily detectable, would leave opponents defenseless. Because of the modified viruses and bacteria genes, only the manufacturer knows its genetic “code”, others are difficult to decipher and control. At the same time, the killing process of genetic weapons is carried out in secret, people generally can not be found in advance and take effective protective measures. Once the damage is felt, it is too late, before the attack by the genetic virus, it is difficult to treat. In addition, genetic weapons have a strong psychological deterrent effect due to their low cost, long duration, simplicity of use, variety of means of delivery, and no destruction of enemy infrastructure or weaponry.

Today, the United States, Russia and Israel all have programs to develop genetic weapons. Other countries probably are as well. The United States has already developed some genetic weapons with operational value. They have inserted a gene from a bacterium that causes the dreaded Rift fever in Africa and the Middle East into common brewing bacteria thereby enabling the brewing bacteria to spread Rift fever. In addition, the United States has completed the genetic splicing of E. coli, which is resistant to tetracycline, and Staphylococcus aureus, which is resistant to penicillin, and then introduced the spliced molecules into E. coli to produce a new E. coli with resistance to the two bactericides. Russia has used genetic engineering methods to study a new toxin, a variant of anthrax, which resists all know antibiotics and for which there is no antidote. Israel is developing a genetic weapon that can only kill Arabs and is not harmful to Jews. There was also a rumor that the Soviet Union combined cobra venom with the flu virus to cause patients to develop flu and snake venom symptoms at the same time. In addition to this, the Soviet Union has also developed a toxin that can kill 5 billion people at 20 mg.

Related Information:

Impact on future warfare

Possible effects of particle genetic weapons on future warfare

Compared with other modern weapons, genetic weapons have the advantages of low cost, easy manufacture, ease of use, and high lethality, in addition to the characteristics of not being easily defended and difficult to treat after being victimized. Genetic weapons can be delivered by hand, ordinary artillery, warships, airplanes, balloons or missiles, and can be dropped on the opponent’s front lines, rear lines, rivers, lakes, cities and transportation points to spread the disease rapidly. A “genetic weapon” of super hemorrhagic fever bacterium could be dropped into the opponent’s water system, disabling most of the people who use that water system. That would be dozens of times more lethal than atomic bombs. The introduction of genetic weapons will change warfare dramatically. Consequences:

  • The pattern of warfare will change. The opposing sides may use genetic weapons before the war, causing the destruction of the opponent’s personnel and living environment, resulting in the loss of a people or a country’s fighting ability, economic decline, and conquest without bloodshed.
  • The institutional structure of the military establishment will change. Combat forces will be reduced, while health service support forces may have to be increased.
  • Strategic weapons and tactical weapons will be integrated. The future battlefield becomes an invisible battlefield, making the battlefield situation difficult to grasp and control.
  • Bringing new topics for military defense and military medical research.

Confronting the Challenge of Particle Genetic Weapons

Although some people are engaged in the research of genetic weapons, others are actively studying the protection against them. In 1997, U.S. Secretary of Defense Cohen ordered that all U.S. active duty and reserve military personnel must be vaccinated against biological warfare agents if ordered to do so starting that year, and that all vaccinations be completed by 2003. in April 1998, U.S. President Clinton hosted a meeting to discuss the relevance of genetic engineering and biotechnology development to the military. In January 2000, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) adjusted its nuclear, chemical, and biological protection strategy, proposing the establishment of a joint weapons of mass destruction (WMD) military service program, improving the joint warfare capabilities of weapons systems, enhancing non-traditional warfare capabilities, raising awareness of non-traditional warfare styles, and adjusting the protective equipment The U.S. will invest $4.6 billion in chemical biological warfare from 1999 to 2003.

According to a July 1997 foreign news report, the United Kingdom organized a group of military experts, geneticists, biologists and lawyers to study the possibility of racial genetic weapons and countermeasures.

In order to protect the best interests of all mankind, maintain and promote world peace and development, and effectively prevent the potential threat of genetic weapons, we should take the following countermeasures.

  1. We should actively urge the international community to reach a global ethical convention and agreement on restricting the use of genetic technology and banning the development of genetic weapons in accordance with the spirit of the International Declaration on the Human Genome and the Rights of Man approved by the United Nations General Assembly in 1998.
  2. Take action as soon as possible to seriously study the genetic code of our nation, identify specific and susceptible genes as early as possible, and use bioengineering technology to develop effective biological agents and vaccines in order to improve and strengthen the genetic resistance of our nation.
  3. Actively apply high and new technologies to develop new types of detection and protection equipment to achieve effective identification and protection.
  4. Conduct special studies on the possible warfare methods, ways and means of genetic warfare implemented by enemy forces, and formulate early action plans. Only in this way will the Chinese nation not be constrained in the possible future struggle between genetic deterrence and counter-deterrence. [3]

Power

The killing power of genetic weapons is enormous. [2] Explosives made with biotechnology can be highly explosive and three to six times more powerful than conventional explosives. Weapon components made from biological explosives can increase the tactical and technical performance of weapons by an order of magnitude. According to some estimates, the killing effectiveness of a genetic weapons arsenal built for $50 million far exceeds that of a nuclear weapons arsenal built for $5 billion. [5] One country has used the biocatalytic effect of deoxyribonucleic acid in cells to isolate the DNA of a virus and then combine it with the DNA of another virus, splicing it into a highly toxic “thermotoxin” genetic warfare agent. One ten thousandth of a milligram suffices to poison 100 cats; 20 grams would suffice to kill 5.5 billion people. In April 1979, an explosion at a Soviet biological weapons site spilled a large amount of Bacillus anthracis aerosol. This caused an anthrax epidemic that killed over one thousand people and lasted 10 years. According to some calculations made by the U.S. military, if a Scud missile with an anthrax warhead landed in Washington, D.C., it could kill 100,000 people. If the Ebola, AIDS and O-157 viruses are made into genetic weapons, these “biological atomic bombs would be enough to destroy the human race. Scientists call genetic weapons “apocalyptic weapons”. They are not exaggerating.

The Future

Imitation virus

  • A virus that can be imitated by engineering techniques, such as one modeled on the 1918 “Spanish” flu virus that killed 40 million people.
  • A weapon designed to destroy a race of people. Such a weapon would work in much the same way as the gene therapy approach being developed by researchers, which is to identify victims by their genetic makeup and then release a virus to destroy them.

Attacking agricultural systems

The British Medical Association study concluded that humans should be more careful about possible biochemical attacks on agricultural systems by terrorists. This is because technically speaking, terrorists can carry out such attacks relatively easily while potentially causing serious damage to instrument production.

Biomodulators

  • Some scientists also refer to biomodulators as “brain bombs”. Biomodulators are agents that attack the human immune and nervous systems, such as the fentanyl used by Russian authorities to end the Moscow theater hostage crisis.
  • Genetically engineered anthrax. Researchers have been able to alter anthrax genes, and this research raises new questions about whether the commonly used vaccines are effective in preventing the new bacteria.

Synthetic viruses

Synthetic poliovirus

Several scientific studies have reported that the replication means used to create synthetic poliovirus could potentially be used to synthetically create viruses like Ebola.

References

1. ∧ The US is harvesting biological information from Russians to research biological weapons against Russia? [cited 2022-06-10 20:07:24]

2. ∧ The real life version of “biohazard”: how genetic weapons will affect future warfare [cited 2022-06-13 18:39:55]

3. ∧ Genetic war, a new shadow over humanity [cited 2022-06-13 18:40:38]

4. ∧ The real-life version of “biohazard”: how genetic weapons will affect future warfare [cited 2022-06-14 10:25:58]

5. ∧ The US is collecting biological information of Russians to research biological weapons against Russia? [cited 2022-06-14 10:28:12]

6. ∧ Modern life technology and future warfare [cited 2022-06-17 18:37:31]


I found some of the references online.

Reference #1

2017 Science and Technology Daily: Is the United States Collecting Biological Information on Russians to Research Biological weapons against Russia?

美国正在采集俄罗斯人的生物信息,要研究针对俄罗斯的生物武器?

November, 3, 2017

Science and Technology Daily

Science and Technology Daily reporter Zhang Qiang

Science and technology is often a double-edged sword. Cutting-edge biotechnology, it can enhance human well-being, but also forge weapons that threaten human security. On November 2, 2017 media reports, Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed that someone is purposefully collecting biological information of Russians. The news went viral very quickly. Russian media then reported that in the summer of 2017, the U.S. Air Force announced a tender for the procurement of 12 “normal human RNA” samples and 27 “normal fresh frozen human synovial” samples, all of which should be collected in Russia. Some Russian experts suspect that this is related to the U.S. program to develop a genetic weapon against Russians.

In this regard, Associate Professor Shi Haiming 国防科技大学军事专家石海明副教授, a military expert at the National University of Defense Technology, expressed his concern to Science and Technology Daily. He pointed out that “the United States may use the collected samples for scientific research tests of genetic weapons, which will undoubtedly cause public opinion and the relevant countries to be alerted. Although it is quite difficult to develop genetic weapons that distinguish between attacks on specific groups of people in terms of the current level of science and technology, we should know that biological information warfare is by no means less powerful than the physical information warfare that is widely known today.”

Genetic weapons is the use of genetic engineering technology, according to people’s needs, in some disease-causing bacteria or viruses, access to genes that can fight ordinary vaccines or drugs, to produce a significant resistance to drug-causing bacteria; or in some otherwise non-disease-causing microorganisms access to disease-causing genes, so as to create new biological agents.

“In a word, DNA recombination technology is used to alter bacteria or viruses so that the non-pathogenic becomes pathogenic, making diseases that can be prevented and saved with vaccines or drugs, difficult to prevent and treat. Putting this biological warfare agent into the delivery device constitutes a genetic weapon.” Shi Haiming explained.

In foreign countries, some people call genetic weapons “doomsday weapons” and “bio-atomic bombs,” which is a clear indication of their power. Some media estimate that a genetic weapons arsenal built with $50 million would be more lethal than a nuclear weapons arsenal built with $5 billion. So, how do genetic weapons launch attacks?

“Genetic weapons can target plants and animals and humans themselves, respectively.” Shi Haiming describes the creation of plant viruses, such as those used primarily in plant warfare, that cause the death of major crops or green plants. There is no more typical plant warfare agent than the infamous defoliant. Genetic technology can also be used to create animal viruses that infect and kill large areas, thus causing devastating famines.

“When used on humans, the methods are even more varied. Such as creating ‘ethnobombs,’ which are agents that target a specific population.” He noted that the completion of the sequencing of the human genome has made it possible to analyze genetic differences between human races and ethnicities. This makes it theoretically possible to design a virus that targets a specific race or ethnicity. Releasing such genetic warfare agents onto the battlefield could kill and injure enemy soldiers in large numbers without any damage to our own side. Viruses that pose a great threat to human health, such as HIV, could also be transformed into easily transmissible viruses, creating “hybrid viruses.

“Genetic weapons are therefore difficult to detect, difficult to prevent, difficult to isolate, and extremely low cost, and if used in warfare, the consequences would be devastating. Tactically, genetic weapons can be quickly delivered to the battlefield and kill or injure large numbers of enemy personnel, and can quickly turn the tide of battle. Strategically, genetic weapons, like nuclear weapons, can cause great damage to the human mind. Therefore, it has an obvious strategic deterrent effect.” Shi Haiming said.

So, how should we guard against a possible genetic weapons attack?

Shi Haiming pointed out, “First of all, relevant scientific research institutions can focus on relevant basic science and key technology research and development. We should study the genetic code of our nation, identify the specific and susceptible genes as early as possible, and use biopharmaceutical engineering technology to develop effective biological agents and vaccines to improve and enhance the genetic resistance of our nation. At the same time, we will develop new types of detection and protection equipment to achieve effective identification and protection. Special research should also be conducted to develop early operational plans for possible future biological information warfare methods, approaches and means of warfare.”

“In view of the great harm that genetic weapons may produce, we must give high attention to biotechnology and its military applications. After all, once the ‘Pandora’ magic box is opened, it will be difficult to close and will surely bring threats to human peace.” Shi Haiming particularly emphasized.

(Science and Technology Daily, Beijing, Nov. 2)


Reference #2

Reference #2

A Real  “Chemical-Biological Crisis”: How Genetic Weapons will Affect Future Warfare

Original 2017-11-10 08:54 – China Military

Source: Chinese military network synthesis Author: Cao Shiyang Editor: Yang Hong

现实版“生化危机”:基因武器将如何影响未来战争

Article written November 10, 2017  中国军号

来源:中国军网综合 作者:曹诗洋 责任编辑:杨红’

Published on China Military

57.415 million likes 599.0 million fans4 follow

Certification: People’s Liberation Army  News Communication Center official account

According to the Xinhua News Agency, on October 30, Russian President Vladimir Putin personally confirmed that someone was purposefully collecting biological sample information from Russians. The statement was immediately spread rapidly. Russian media then reported that the U.S. Air Force had targeted Russians in a tender for the procurement of biological samples. Some Russian experts warned that biological samples from the Russian population could be used to create bacteriological weapons in the future and that such collection activities should be monitored. The U.S. Air Force Education and Training Command clarified to Russian media Oct. 31 that the 59th Medical Wing’s Advanced Molecular Monitoring Center, the largest medical unit in the U.S. Air Force, does collect biological samples from Russians, but not for the purpose of creating bacteriological and biological weapons.

Genetic weapons are a new generation of biological weapons developed through gene editing technology that modifies the genetic code of disease-causing microorganisms and can attack the enemy at the genetic level. In simple terms, gene editing technology is equivalent to a pair of genetic “scissors” that can “splice” a gene fragment from one organism to another to change its physiological characteristics according to subjective wishes. It is in this way that genetic weapons modify genes to acquire new disease-causing microorganisms, thereby disabling the other side’s vaccine pool. U.S. intelligence agencies have thus classified gene editing technology as a potential weapon of mass destruction.

Stay tuned for a report in today’s PLA Daily –

How Genetic Weapons Could Impact Future Warfare

Cao Shiyang

A “Bio-Atomic Bomb” with Great Killing Power

Embraer, Raccoon City, T-Virus …… are familiar names to game fans that build a virtual world torn apart by runaway biological weapons: in secret scientific laboratories, hundreds of genetics and bioengineering experts involved in research are infected with viruses that turn them into bloodthirsty “zombies”. “, people once bitten or scratched by them will be infected and immediately become the same kind.

In fact, from the German influenza bacteriological weapons during World War I, to Japan’s Unit 731 during World War II, to the Soviet Union’s unprecedented scale of biological weapons arsenal during the Cold War, every history of biological weapons is inevitably flooded with blood and chilling. Since entering the 21st century, gene editing technology has flourished, the human genome map has been successfully completed, and biological weapons research has entered the era of genetic weapons, a realistic version of the “biochemical crisis” may be kicked off.

From the 1970s to the 1980s, the rapid development of molecular genetics made it possible to develop genetic weapons. Genetic weapons are based on the recombination of DNA, the carrier of genetic information, with the help of genetic engineering methods to achieve gene isolation and recombination, the formation of complex DNA, and on this basis, with the help of microorganisms to achieve gene transfer, made of biological weapons can change the genetic material.

Since genetic weapons are new viruses and bacteria “cut out”, the genetic code is known only to the designer, and it is difficult for the other party to decipher and develop new vaccines to fight against them in time. Even if the vaccine pool is updated, there is still a constant flow of new genetic weapons “ready to go”. The speed of vaccine development must not be able to catch up with the speed of “poisoning”, and such an explicit and implicit “competition” is obviously extremely unfavorable to the defending side.

Especially with the rapid development of genomics, the complete gene sequences of more and more disease-causing microorganisms have been discovered, and these microorganisms may be the originators of the “biochemical crisis”. As long as we find a breakthrough in the genetic code, it is easy to transform them into “bio-atomic bombs” with great lethality.

Achieving Military Objectives Without Deploying A Single Soldier

Like traditional biological weapons, genetic weapons are small, inexpensive, and do not destroy non-living matter. The user does not need to mobilize a large number of people, but can achieve military objectives by dropping the genetic weapons into the enemy area by manual, aircraft, missile and other means of delivery. Obviously, genetic weapons have many advantages that are incomparable to traditional biological weapons.

First, genetic weapons are more infectious and lethal. For example, by transplanting gene fragments with high reproductive capacity, the reproductive spread of deadly germs can be increased several times; by transplanting gene fragments with high disease causing capacity, the lethality rate can be increased to about 100%. Second, genetic weapons are highly concealable. For different military purposes, environments and attack targets, users can artificially design the incubation period of genetic weapons. In other words, one can make a genetic weapon into a “time bomb” with a “countdown” of up to 10 years. This is the main difference between genetic weapons and traditional biological and chemical weapons.

Once genetic weapons are put into use, the future of warfare will change dramatically.

–The pattern of warfare will change. The opposing sides may use genetic weapons before the war to destroy the opponent’s personnel and living environment, resulting in the loss of a people or a country’s fighting ability and conquest without bloodshed.

–The institutional structure of the military will change. The number of combat troops will be reduced, while the number of health service support troops will increase significantly.

–Strategic and tactical weapons will merge into one. The future battlefield will become invisible, making the battlefield situation difficult to grasp and control, bringing new topics and challenges to military defense and military medical research.

Genetic weapons will be a strategic deterrent

Since 2014, CRISPR gene editing technology has brought about a revolution in science. the CRISPR system, simply put, is an adaptive immune system that bacteria can use to immovably excise viral genes from their own chromosomes, a unique immunity for bacteria. In the mammalian genome, the CRISPR system has been developed as an efficient and simple gene editing technology, acting like a universal genetic “scissors” that can turn on or silence certain genes at the same time, enabling “batch” editing of genes.

The development of this technology has enabled the development of genetic weapons that are more precise, faster and more deterrent to target populations. U.S. intelligence agencies have classified CRISPR gene editing technology as a potential weapon of mass destruction.

However, CRISPR technology itself is currently limited to the laboratory, with a high failure rate, not to mention the development of weapons of mass destruction. Modern warfare has evolved toward multidimensionality, and with the continuous improvement of information technology, warfare is to a greater extent a confrontation of matter, energy, equipment, and data and information. Whether genetic weapons, which are used as a means of chronic killing of humans and animals, can be used in actual warfare, and how costly they are to use, are still open to debate.

In addition, the “slaughter” of genetic weapons, regardless of civilian or military status, poses serious political and moral risks, with incalculable consequences. Moreover, if it is not handled properly or if we are unlucky, if it leaks during transportation and hurts our own people, it is like “lifting a stone and hitting our own feet”.

In the long run, genetic weapons are more of a strategic deterrent. In the real world, mankind’s exploration of the secrets of life is only the tip of the iceberg, and genetic engineering is not God’s hand of creation, so the reckless abuse of genetic weapons will surely bring unpredictable disasters to all mankind.

(Photo courtesy of the author)


Reference #3

Genetic war: Humanity Faces a Grim Prospect

Original 2018-11-08 01:02 – China Military

Published on China Military

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Certification: People’s Liberation Army  News Communication Center official account

A few days ago, the news of the leakage of Chinese genetic data gave people a false alarm. In response to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange’s inquiry about whether there is cooperation with foreign institutions or individuals in the “140,000 Chinese genetic data” project, Huada Genetics said that there is no foreign cooperation institutioni involved in this project, the original data of the project are stored in the Shenzhen National Gene Bank, and the analysis work of the project is completed by the Chinese research team in the territory, and there is no genetic resource data There is no genetic resources data leaving the country.

So, why is the leak of genetic data a cause for concern? The reason is simple: a sufficient number of human genetic samples could allow some countries to develop special “genetic weapons”, especially “ethnogenetic weapons”, or become a new shadow over the world’s head, so that people have to prevent. Previously, Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed that there is a purposeful collection of biological samples of Russians. In response, Russian experts warned that biological samples of the Russian population may be used in the future to create bacteriological weapons and that such collection activities should be monitored.

A so-called genetic weapon is a bacterium or virus that is altered with DNA recombination technology so that the non-pathogenic becomes pathogenic, making diseases that can be prevented and saved with vaccines or drugs, difficult to prevent and treat. By putting this biological warfare agent into a specific device, a genetic weapon can be developed. Ethnogenetic weapons are biological warfare agents that use genetic differences in human races to kill or partially incapacitate some of the people they target, while sparing those who are not targeted. Some studies have shown that 99.7% to 99.9% of human DNA is identical, and it is these differences, which account for a very small percentage, that distinguish the races. Thus, each ethnic and human race has a unique genetic profile, and on a theoretical level, it is possible to develop genetic weapons based on this profile that kill the intended racial targets and thus selectively attack targets with specific racial genes.

Currently, the sequencing of the human genome has made it possible to analyze the genetic differences between human races and ethnic groups, and in particular, the development of gene editing technology has made it possible to “splice” a gene fragment from one organism to another to alter its physiological characteristics according to subjective wishes. In this way, it is theoretically possible to design a virus that targets a particular race or ethnicity. By releasing such genetic warfare agents onto the battlefield, it would be possible to kill and injure a large number of enemy soldiers without any damage to our own side. Thus, it has become theoretically possible to create genetic weapons that target specific genetic groups or ethnic groups.

Compared with traditional biological and chemical weapons, genetic weapons are more concealable, deceptive, easy to spread and harmful in the long run, and they are difficult to prevent, difficult to isolate and inexpensive. Since genetic weapons can only kill a specific group of people, toxicity cannot be detected by conventional means, and there is no drug that can repair the damaged genes. At the same time, because genetic weapons are new viruses and bacteria “cut out”, the genetic code is known only to the designer, and it is difficult for the attacked party to decipher and develop a new vaccine in time to fight against them. In addition, genetic weapons are easy to launch, you can use insects as a carrier to attack. For example, using cloned mosquitoes to bite a crowd and release a genetic weapon against a specific group of people can reach the set target of the attack. Currently, the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency has begun experiments in plant chromosome editing using insects to spread gene-modifying viruses. Thus, tactically, genetic weapons can be quickly delivered to the battlefield and kill large numbers of enemy personnel, thereby turning the tide of battle. And strategically, genetic weapons, like nuclear weapons, can cause great damage to the human mind and have a significant strategic deterrent effect. Military experts estimate that a genetic weapons arsenal built for $50 million would be far more effective than a nuclear weapons arsenal built at a cost of hundreds of billions of dollars. Therefore, some people call genetic weapons “doomsday weapons” and “bio-atomic bombs”, which is sufficient to illustrate their enormous power.

In all matters, if you are prepared, you are prepared, but if you are not, you are not. We should take measures as early as possible to keep our genes secret and prevent them from being used by the enemy. At the same time, we should also study the genetic code and adopt appropriate technologies to improve our genetic resistance to ensure that we will not be constrained in the future struggle against genetic deterrence and counter-deterrence.


Reference #4: same as #2

Reference #5 same as #1

Reference #6

Modern Life Science and Technology and Future warfare

现代生命科技与未来战争
March 22, 2020 光明网 (a Guangming Ribao website)

《光明日报》( 2020年03月22日07版)(This article published in Guangming Ribao on March 22, 2020 on page 7)


Lecture on Military Science and Technology

Author: Kang Yaowu (Associate Professor, School of Military Management, National Defense University); Kang Kaihua (Cadet, School of Military Basic Education, Armed Police Engineering University)

Modern life science and technology refers to a vast disciplinary system constituted on the basis of observation and experiment of life phenomena with life as the research object. Entering the 21st century, as one of the fastest growing and most influential disciplines in natural science, modern life science and technology is being applied in the military field at an unimaginable speed, which will give birth to new combat concepts and combat styles and profoundly influence the direction of new military changes in the world.

Researchers from the Institute of Military Medicine of the Academy of Military Sciences check the results of experiments. Photo by Liu Zhengyun / Bright picture

  1. Advanced science and technology is always the first to be applied to the military

With the continuous and rapid development of modern life science and technology, new technologies and new achievements represented by biological science and brain science are being applied in the military field, with a wider and wider scope and deeper penetration, giving rise to new combat styles and combat concepts.

The development of modern life science and technology provides unlimited space for the development of biological warfare agents. Biological weapons is a collective term for materials, materials, apparatus, etc. that cause disease or death to humans, animals and plants by using bacteria, viruses, rickettsiae, biological tissues, toxins, etc. as warfare agents, the core of which is biological warfare agents.

Biological warfare agents can be divided into three generations:

  • The first generation is the use of natural epidemic-derived pathogens;
  • The second generation is the use of artificial technology to cultivate pathogens; the third generation is the use of artificial technology to synthesize pathogens.
  • The third generation of biological warfare agents manufactured by using synthetic biology and genetic engineering have stronger toxicity, resistance, and infectivity, especially the application of gene editing technology, which makes biological warfare agents specific, or racial and precise.

There are currently two main ways in which biological weapons are used, one is biological warfare and the other is bioterrorist attacks. The application of biological weapons to warfare is known as biological warfare. Once biological warfare occurs, it is bound to change the outcome of the war and bring great disaster to humanity. Although the Convention on the Prohibition of Biological Weapons was signed internationally in the 1970s, the threat of biological warfare has never been eliminated. For some relatively weak countries, the use of biological weapons has become their possible choice in asymmetric military confrontation. With the continuous development of biological science and technology, the technology and varieties of biological warfare agents have been improved and gradually developed in the direction of diversification and miniaturization.

Research on brain science started late, but has developed rapidly under the strong support of modern life science technology and the whole natural science theory and technology system.

Brain science has broad prospects for military applications, from the current development trend, there are two main aspects:

  • The first is brain control. Through non-invasive brain-brain interface or the implementation of special spectrum signal stimulation of specific parts of the brain, to achieve the purpose of interference and control of brain thinking activities.
  • The second is control by the brain: through non-invasive brain-machine interface, the brain can achieve direct control of biological targets or physical targets.

In August 2013, scientists at the University of Washington conducted the first non-invasive brain-brain interface experiment between humans, in which researchers sent brain signals through the Internet and successfully controlled the hand movements of their peers on the other side of the campus. The researchers successfully controlled the hand movements of a peer on the other side of campus by sending brain signals over the Internet. We shall need to be wary of the the military threats associated with such technologies. They may give rise to new types of brain-machine weapons and equipment in the future, and new styles of warfare such as “cognitive warfare” and “brain warfare.

Capability-enhancing technologies will be more widely used. Human augmentation technologies will enable ordinary people and military personnel to work more efficiently and in environments that were previously inaccessible. These include mechanical exoskeletons, retinal implants, hearing enhancement devices, and even neurological drugs to enhance intelligence.

There are four types of human enhancement devices:

  • First, physical enhancement devices can make humans faster and stronger. Technologies such as exoskeletons will greatly enhance human capabilities, and the U.S. military has been trying to improve the physical function of soldiers through technology, including enhanced exoskeletal strength to enhance the weight-bearing capacity of individuals.
  • Second, brain enhancement devices to achieve intentional control. Brain-machine interface includes two directions from brain to machine, from machine to brain, the vast majority of the current brain-machine interface system is a one-way brain to machine, which is also known as the idea of control. There is also a part from the machine to the brain, used to achieve the control or induction of animal behavior, that is, animal robots.
  • Third, memory-enhancing drugs make humans smarter. Neurological drugs can improve human memory and thinking speed and enhance brain function.
  • Fourth, audio-visual enhancement devices allow humans to become “clairvoyant” and “smooth-hearted”. Through retinal implant technology, humans can not only restore their vision, but can even obtain night vision through surgery.

File photo

  1. Modern life science and technology will have a disruptive impact on future warfare

The application of modern life science and technology in the military field is still on the rise, with immeasurable room for development, and the impact on future warfare could be disruptive.

Biological weapons may become a war deterrent and a check and balance factor. Nuclear weapons have become the core force of strategic deterrence competing among countries in the world today due to their powerful lethality, and become the strategic support of a great power. The development of biological warfare agents supported by modern life science and technology is unprecedentedly rapid; it can produce active biological bombs that humans cannot prevent and control, break through the human body’s immune system, and like weapons of mass destruction, can produce a huge killing effect on human beings in a short period of time; it can also have precision, targeted attacks to destroy a race, or a specific group of people, or a specific person; its potential tremendous war effectiveness can bring extreme panic to human beings. Its high technological content, low cost, and high threat can become a deterrent and check-and-balance force between countries like nuclear weapons, thus influencing the strategic decisions of countries and changing the shape of war.

Each new military revolution is marked by the expansion of new uncharted territories of warfare. The multi-dimensionalization of battlefield space is a characteristic of modern warfare. This has developed from the land, sea and air and now extends to space, electromagnetic space and cyberspace, i.e., from natural space to virtual space. The in-depth application of modern life science and technology in the field of warfare will make the war space from macro into micro. The emergence of a new warfare space is bound to give rise to new combat theories, combat styles, combatants and combat equipment.

Like other areas of science and technology, the progress and development of modern life science and technology will have a profound impact on the mechanism of winning the war. From the battlefield destruction effect, the traditional battlefield destruction effect to combat casualties and destruction of weapons and equipment as a standard comprehensive judgment, while biochemical warfare aims directly at humans. The combat effectiveness of such biotechnological weapons on the battlefield depends upon damage to the bodies of personnel, their cognitive functions, control and psychological behavior. It can be said that the war has moved from the deprivation of life to the ability and control of behavior, from hard kill to soft kill, soft damage, the focus of battlefield confrontation has undergone a fundamental change. From the combat equipment system, the application of modern life science and bringing rapidly advancing technology to the battlefield, where it become integrated into combat tactics. This affects the battlefield in that combat equipment is changing from the tangible to invisible change. From the combat means, the application of modern life science and technology in the battlefield has is hard to detect, so its effectiveness on the battlefield can be difficult to determine. This means that in combat it is sometimes difficult to determine whether it is a natural or human factor, which may mislead the command judgment and affect or alter the strategic decision.

3. Focus on building a military life science and technology development system

In the new era, the construction of military life science and technology development system, strengthen the development of military life science and technology, to build a military that can fight and wins has necessary requirements:

The first requirement is to improve the military life science and technology macro management mechanism by:

  • First, promote the construction of institutions. To this round of national defense and military reform and support local fight against the novel coronavirus pneumonia as an opportunity to build and improve the military health organization and management system, the formation of the entire military up and down the organization and management framework, to provide strong organizational security for the development of military life science and technology.
  • Second, improve the top-level design. Closely track the international military life science and technology development trend, from the strategic heights of national security, military strategic security, scientific planning and development of both offensive and defensive military life science and technology development strategy.
  • Third, strengthen the construction of security forces. Establish a long-term and stable investment mechanism and focus on key research directions related to military.

The second requirement is to build a military life science and technology development support platform by:

  • Constructing a military life science and technology research and development platform, building a strong military life science and technology research and clinical institutions, and vigorously develop key disciplines related to military medicine and combat to provide basic support for military life science and technology development.
  • Creating a military life science and technology information service platform, integrated pathogenesis, pathology, immunology, epidemiology, social psychology, laboratory tests, clinical treatment and other life science information resources, to provide information support for military life science and technology research and decision-making.
  • Improving military life science and technology personnel training platform, the establishment of military medical universities, research institutes, medical institutions as the support, a combination of academic education and service education, the hierarchy of distinct, consistent training, covering the entire military training system, to provide manpower support for the development of military life science and technology.

The third requirement is to accelerate the research and development of disruptive military life science and technology by:

  • Focusing closely on brain science, bioscience and other key life science fields, focusing on the advantages of resources to focus on research and development of a number of disruptive military life science key technologies.
  • In biological sciences, we should increase research and development efforts, form a number of key technologies and equipment, and create a strong biosecurity defense system for our military.
  • We should make full use of 3D bioprinting technology, genome editing technology, neuroimaging technology, protein research technology, single-molecule single-cell technology and other new technological means to promote the comprehensive development of basic and applied research in military medicine.

The fourth requirement is to build a military-civilian integration of life science and technology research and development system.

Maximize the integrated utilization of military and local life science and technology development resources.

  • Stress building up emergency response integration and realize the effective connection between national defense mobilization mechanism and national emergency response mechanism.
  • We should accelerate the convergence of military and national emergency management work, and integrate military health emergency work into a standardized, institutionalized and legalized track.

Guangming Daily ( 22 March 2020, page 07)


Chinese text of articles translated:


基因武器
新概念武器
基因武器是指利用基因工程技术研制的新型生物战剂,又称作第三代生物战剂。[6]基因武器将是现代新概念武器的又一发展方向。

基因武器,它运用先进的遗传工程这一新技术,用类似工程设计的办法,按人们的需要通过基因重组,在一些致病细菌或病毒中接入能对抗普通疫苗或药物的基因,或者在一些本来不会致病的微生物体内接入致病基因而制造成生物武器,尤其合成生物学的发展,可实现人工设计与合成自然界并不存在的生物或病毒等。[1]它能改变非致病微生物的遗传物质,使其产生具有显著抗药性的致病菌,利用人种生化特征上的差异,使这种致病菌只对特定遗传特征的人们产生致病作用,从而有选择地消灭敌方有生力量。

目录
1简介
2分类
3特点
4使用
5其他相关
影响未来战争
如何面对
威力
6未来
仿制病毒
攻击农业系统
生物调节剂
合成病毒
简介
编辑

军事领域的基因工程是一种种族灭绝的武器。因为人的任何形态都反映了他的基因,因此用基因武器杀人,可以达到灭绝种族的目的。比如说,用基因武器可以只杀红褐色头发的人,也可以只杀矮个子或高个子,蓝眼睛或黑眼睛的人。据透露,一些西方国家正准备制造“种族变异病毒”,通过对具有群体遗传特点的人体细胞、组织器官和机体系统,施加目标明确的化学或生物影响,使基因密码出现差错,从而达到杀人的目的。

20世纪70年代到80年代,分子遗传学迅猛发展,使研制基因武器成为可能。基因武器建立在对基因信息的载体——脱氧核糖核酸进行重组的基础之上,借助基因工程的方法可以实现基因分离和重组,形成复合脱氧核糖核酸,在此基础上借助微生物实现基因转移,确保获取毒害人、动物、植物的剧毒毒素,制成可改变遗传器官的生物武器。[4]

将毒性明显的基因材料导入细菌病毒或人的病毒可以取得能在短期内使大量人员死亡的细菌武器。科学家预计到2005—2010年,基因工程将在细菌生物学领域取得更大的成果,从而揭示毒素作用机制,生产出可作为武器使用的毒品。④

研究人与人之间的天生差别和遗传差别及其细微的生物化学结构表明,研制所谓的种族武器的可能性是存在的。科学家认为,在不太遥远的将来,这种武器可能被用于杀伤被其他民族群嫌弃的某些民族群。血缘、肤色、遗传结构的差别将成为这种选择的基础。

种族武器领域的研究旨在发现某些民族群在基因方面的最薄弱点和研制出可供有效利用的专门媒介物。据美国著名医学家R.哈默施拉格估算,使用有效期不同的种族武器可以灭杀被进攻国家25%一30%的人口。请注意,在核战争中这种数量的人口损失被视为“不能接受的损失”,说明这个国家被战胜。
基因武器
基因武器
分类

微生物基因武器生物武器库中的常见家族,包括:利用微生物基因修饰生产新的生物战剂、改造构建已知生物战剂、利用基因重组方法制备新的病毒战剂;把自然界中致病力强的基因转移,制造出致病力更强的新战剂;把耐药性基因转移,制造出耐药性更强的新战剂。

毒素基因武器天然毒素是自然生物产生的,通过生物技术可增强其毒性,还能制成自然界所没有的毒性更强的混种族基因武器是当前基因武器库中最具诱惑力的新成员,也是最具威力的一种。如今尚无成功报道,但其现实威胁已迫在眉睫。种族基因武器,也称“人种炸弹”,是针对某一特定民族或种族群体的基因武器。即只对某特定人种的特定基因、特定部位有效,故对其他人种完全无害,是新式的超级制导武器。

转基因利用基因技术对食物进行处理,制成强化或弱化基因,诱发特定或多种疾病,降低对方的战斗力;研制转基因药物,通过药物诱导或其他控制手段既可削弱对方的战斗力,也可增强己方士兵的作战能力,培育未来的“超级士兵”。
特点

1杀伤力极强,成本极其低廉
2使用方便,战术运用灵活
3具有较强的敌我分辨能力,只攻击和传染特定人群
4施放手段和杀伤力过程隐蔽性强,具有强大的威慑作用
5.对使用地区的人有较长时间的影响
使用

基因武器的使用方法简单多样,可以用人工、飞机、导弹或火炮把经过遗传工程发行过的细菌、细菌昆虫和带有致病基因的微生物,投入它国的主要河流、城市或交通要道,让病毒自然扩散、繁殖,使人、畜在短时间内患上一种无法治疗的疾病,使其在无形战场上静悄悄地丧失战斗力。由于这种武器不易发现且难防难治,一些科学家对它的忧虑远远超过了当年一些核物理学家对原子弹的忧虑。

关注基因武器在人类基因组多样性的研究中,已经发现人种之间确实存在基因的差异。这种差异,很可能被种族主义者和恐怖主义分子所利用。他们可以根据不同种族基因组多样性特点,采用基因工程技术手段,设计,研制出针对某一种族的基因武器,从而对某一种族或国家的安全造成潜在的和巨大的威胁。

在战略上,基因武器将使作战方式发生明显变化。使用者只需要在临战前将经过基因工程培养的病菌投入他国,或利用飞机、导弹等将带有致病基因的微生物投入他国交通要道或城市,让病毒自然扩散、繁殖,使敌方人畜在短时间患一种无法治疗的疾病,从而丧失战斗能力。此外,基因武器可根据需要任意重组基因,可在一些生物中移入损伤人类智力的基因。当某一特定族群的人们沾染上这种带有损伤智力基因的病菌时,就会丧失正常智力。

在战术上,基因武器不易被发现,将使对方防不胜防。因为经过改造的病毒和细菌基因,只有制造者才知道它的遗传“密码”,其他人很难破译和控制。同时,基因武器的杀伤作用过程是在秘密之中进行的,人们一般不能提前发现和采取有效的防护措施。一旦感受到伤害,为时已晚,在此之前早已遭到基因病毒的侵袭,很难治疗。此外,基因武器还有成本低、持续时间长、使用方法简单、施放手段多样、不破坏敌方基础设施和武器装备等特点,具有较强的心理威慑作用。

如今至少美国、俄罗斯和以色列都有研制基因武器的计划。美国已经研制出一些具有实战价值的基因武器.他们在普通酿酒菌中接入一种在非洲和中东引起可怕的裂各热细菌的基因,从而使酿酒菌可以传播裂各热病。另外,美国已完成了把具有抗四环素作用的大肠杆菌遗传基因与具有抗青霉素作用的金色葡萄球菌的基因拼接,再把拼接的分子引入大肠杆菌中,培养出具有抗上述两种杀菌素的新大肠杆菌.俄罗斯已利用遗传工程学方法,研究了一种属于炭疽变素的新型毒素,可以对任何抗生素产生抗药性,如今找不到任何解毒剂.以色列正在研制一种仅能杀伤阿拉伯人而对犹太人没有危害的基因武器。以前还曾传说苏联将眼镜蛇毒与流感病毒结合,使患者同时出现流感和蛇毒症状,除了这个,苏联还研究出了一种毒素,20毫克可以杀死50亿人。

其他相关

影响未来战争
粒子基因武器对未来战争可能造成的影响
基因武器与其他现代化武器比较,除不易防御和被害后难治疗等特点以外,还有成本低、易制造、使用方便、杀伤力大等优势。基因武器可以用人工、普通火炮、军舰、飞机、气球或导弹进行施放,可以投在对方的前线、后方、江河湖泊、城市和交通要冲使疾病迅速传播。将一种超级出血热菌的“基因武器”投入对方水系,会使水系流域的居民多数丧失生活能力,这要比核弹杀伤力大几十倍。一旦基因武器投入未来战争,将使未来战争发生巨大变化:

战争模式将发生变化。敌对双方可能在战前使用基因武器,使对方人员及生活环境遭到破坏,导致一个民族、一个国家丧失战斗力,经济衰退,在不流血中被征服。

军队的编制体制结构将发生变化。战斗部队将减少,而卫生勤务保障部队可能要增加。

战略武器与战术武器将融为一体。未来战场成为无形战场,使战场情况难以掌握和控制。
为军事防御和军事医学研究带来新课题。

如何面对
如何面对粒子基因武器的挑战

尽管有人在从事基因武器的研究,但也有人在积极研究对基因武器的防护。据报道,有的国家早在80年代就开始对生物战剂防护措施的研究工作,并研制出多种预防生物武器侵袭的疫苗。1997年,美国国防部长科恩下令,自当年起,所有美国现役军人和后备役军人必须按规定接种生物战剂防护疫苗,并于2003年前全部接种完毕。1998年4月,美国总统克林顿主持会议讨论有关基因工程和生物技术发展与军事的关联。同年5月,克林顿下令加强防生化战疫苗和抗生素的储备,以应付可能发生的生物战。2000年1月,美国防部对核化生防护战略进行调整,提出建立防护大规模杀伤性武器军兵种联合计划,改进武器系统联合作战能力,提高非传统作战能力,提高非传统作战样式的认识,调整防护装备的研制开发、采办、经费投入、计划和人员部署。1999~2003年美将投资46亿美元用于化学生物战。

据1997年7月外电报道,英国已组织由军事专家、遗传学家、生物学家和律师组成的小组,研究种族基因武器的可能性及对策。

为了保护全人类的最大利益,维护和促进世界和平与发展,有效防范基因武器的潜在威胁,我们应采取以下对策:
第一,积极敦促国际社会按照1998年联合国大会批准的“关于人类基因组与人类权利的国际宣言”的精神,在全球范围内达成有关限制基因技术的使用,全面禁止基因武器研制的伦理公约和协议;
第二,尽快采取行动,认真研究本民族的基因密码,及早察明其中的特异性和易感性基因,有针对性地采用生物工程技术研制有效的生物药剂和疫苗,提高和增强民族的基因抵抗力;
第三,积极应用高新技术,研制新型探测和防护器材,做到有效识别和防护;
第四,针对敌军可能实施基因战的战法、途径和手段进行专门研究,及早制定行动预案。只有这样,在未来可能面临的基因威慑与反威慑的斗争中,中华民族才不至于受制于人。[3]

威力
基因武器的杀伤威力极其巨大。[2]利用生物技术制造的炸药,爆炸力强,威力比常规炸药大3~6倍。用生物炸药制成的武器战斗部,可使武器的战术、技术性能提高一个数量级。据估算,用5000万美元建造一个基因武器库,其杀伤效能远远超过50亿美元建造的核武器库。[5]某国曾利用细胞中的脱氧核糖核酸的生物催化作用,把一种病毒的DNA分离出来,再与另一种病毒的DNA相结合,拼接成一种具有剧毒的“热毒素”基因战剂,用其万分之一毫克就能毒死100只猫;倘用其20g,就足以使全球55亿人死于一旦。前苏军研制的出血热菌基因武器投入敌方水源,可使整个流域的居民全部丧生。1979年4月,前苏联的一个生物武器基地发生爆炸,溢出大量炭疽杆菌气溶胶,造成炭疽病流行,死亡1000多人,影响持续10年之久。据美军测算,倘若一枚带有炭疽菌弹头的“飞毛腿”导弹落在华盛顿,便可夺去10万人的生命。如果将“埃博拉病毒”、“艾滋病病毒”、“O-157病毒”制作成基因武器,这些“生物原子弹”足以毁灭人类。科学家称基因武器为“世界末日武器”,丝毫不是夸张。
未来

仿制病毒
指可能通过工程技术仿制的病毒,比如曾经造成4000万人死亡的1918年“西班牙”流感病毒。
旨在消灭某个种族的武器。这种武器的工作原理与研究人员正在研制的基因治疗方法大体相似,那就是通过受害者的基因组成识别他们的身份,然后释放出消灭他们的病毒。

攻击农业系统
英国医学会的研究认为,人类应更加小心恐怖分子对农业系统可能发起的生化攻击。因为从技术上讲,恐怖分子能比较容易地实施这种攻击,同时又可能对仪器生产造成严重破坏。
生物调节剂
有些科学家也称生物调节剂为“大脑炸弹”。生物调节剂是指能够攻击人类免疫和神经系统的药剂,比如俄罗斯当局用于结束莫斯科剧院人质危机的芬太奴。
通过基因工程制造的炭疽热。研究人员已能够改变炭疽热基因,这种研究也带来新的疑问,那就是普遍使用的疫苗是否能有效预防新细菌。
合成病毒
合成小儿麻痹病毒

一些科学研究报告显示,用于制造合成小儿麻痹病毒的复制手段有可能被用于合成制造像埃博拉病毒一类的病毒。
参考资料

  1. ∧ 美国正在采集俄罗斯人的生物信息,要研究针对俄罗斯的生物武器?[引用日期2022-06-10 20:07:24]
  2. ∧ 现实版“生化危机”:基因武器将如何影响未来战争[引用日期2022-06-13 18:39:55]
  3. ∧ 基因战争,笼罩人类的新阴影[引用日期2022-06-13 18:40:38]
  4. ∧ 现实版“生化危机”:基因武器将如何影响未来战争[引用日期2022-06-14 10:25:58]
  5. ∧ 美国正在采集俄罗斯人的生物信息,要研究针对俄罗斯的生物武器?[引用日期2022-06-14 10:28:12]
  6. ∧ 现代生命科技与未来战争[引用日期2022-06-17 18:37:31]

究针对俄罗斯的生物武器?

原创2017-11-03 09:56·科技日报

科技日报记者 张 强

许多时候,科技是一把双刃剑。就拿前沿生物技术来说,它既能增进人类福祉,也可锻造武器,威胁人类安全。2日有媒体报道,俄罗斯总统普京证实,有人在有目的地采集俄罗斯人的生物信息。消息一出,即遭爆炸性传播。俄媒随即报道,2017年夏,美国空军宣布招标采购12个“正常人类核糖核酸”样品和27个“正常新鲜冷冻人体滑膜”样品,所有样本都应在俄罗斯采集。一些俄罗斯专家怀疑,这与美国正开发一种针对俄罗斯人的基因武器计划有关。

对此,国防科技大学军事专家石海明副教授对科技日报记者表达了担忧。他指出,“美国可能将采集的样本用于基因武器的科学研究测试,这无疑会引起舆论和相关国家的警惕。虽然就目前的科技水平而言,研制区分攻击特定人群的基因武器还相当困难,但我们要知道,生物信息战的威力,绝不亚于今天广为人知的物理信息战。”

基因武器就是运用遗传工程技术,按人们的需要,在一些致病细菌或病毒中,接入能对抗普通疫苗或药物的基因,产生具有显著抗药性的致病菌;或者在一些本来不会致病的微生物体内接入致病基因,从而制造出新的生物制剂。

“一句话,就是用DNA重组技术改变细菌或病毒,使不致病的成为可致病的,让可以用疫苗或药物预防和救治的疾病,变得难于预防和治疗。把这种生物战剂放入施放装置内,就构成了基因武器。”石海明解释道。

在国外,有人把基因武器称作“末日武器”“生物原子弹”,足以说明其威力之巨大。有媒体估算,用5000万美元建造一个基因武器库,其杀伤效能超过50亿美元建造的核武器库。那么,基因武器是如何发动袭击的呢?

“基因武器可以分别针对动植物和人类本身。”石海明介绍,如制造主要用于植物战的植物病毒,造成主要农作物或绿色植物死亡。最典型的植物战剂莫过于臭名昭著的落叶剂了。同时也可利用基因技术制造动物病毒,使其大面积感染并死亡,从而引发毁灭性饥荒。

“用于人类的话,方法就更加多种多样。如制造‘人种炸弹’,即针对某一特定人群的毒剂。”他指出,人类基因组测序工作的完成,使分析人种、种族之间在基因上的差异成为可能。这样,在理论上就可以设计出针对某一特定种族或民族的病毒。把这种基因战剂释放到战场上,可以大量杀伤敌方士兵而己方丝毫无损。还可把对人类健康有巨大威胁的病毒,如艾滋病毒,改造成易传播的病毒,培育出“杂种病毒”。

“因此,基因武器难以检测、难以预防、难以隔离,而且成本极低,一旦用于战争,造成的后果将是毁灭性的。在战术上,基因武器可以快捷地投放战场并大量杀伤敌方人员,能够很快扭转作战态势。在战略上,基因武器和核武器一样,能对人的心灵造成极大伤害。因此,具有明显的战略威慑作用。”石海明说。

那么,我们应该如何防范可能发生的基因武器袭击呢?

石海明指出,“首先有关科研机构可关注相关基础科学和关键技术研发。要认真研究本民族的基因密码,尽早察明其中的特异性和易感性基因,有针对性地采用生物制药工程技术研制有效的生物药剂和疫苗,提高和增强民族的基因抵抗力。同时研制新型探测和防护器材,做到有效识别和防护。针对未来生物信息战可能实施的战法、途径和手段,也要进行专门研究,及早制定行动预案。”

“鉴于基因武器可能产生的巨大危害,我们必须给予生物技术及其军事应用以高度关注。毕竟,‘潘多拉’魔盒一旦打开,就再也难以关上了,必将给人类和平带来威胁。”石海明特别强调。

(科技日报北京11月2日电)


现实版“生化危机”:基因武器将如何影响未来战争

原创2017-11-10 08:54·中国军号

来源:中国军网综合 作者:曹诗洋 责任编辑:杨红

据新华网报道,10月30日,俄罗斯总统普京亲口证实,有人在有目的地采集俄罗斯人的生物样本资料。此言一出,即遭爆炸性传播。俄媒随即报道,美国空军在一份生物样本采购招标中将目标锁定俄罗斯人。有俄专家警告,俄罗斯民众的生物样本未来或将被用于制造细菌武器,应监控此类收集活动。美国空军教育训练司令部10月31日向俄媒澄清说,美空军最大医疗部队、第59医疗部队的“先进分子监测中心”确实搜集了俄罗斯人的生物样本,但目的并不是制造细菌生化武器。

基因武器是指通过基因编辑技术修改致病微生物的基因编码,而研制出的新一代生物武器,能够从基因层面对敌发动攻击。简单来说,基因编辑技术就相当于一把基因“剪刀”,可以按照主观意愿将一种生物的基因片段“剪接”到另一种生物上,从而改变其生理特征。基因武器正是通过这种方式修改基因获得新的致病微生物,从而使对方的疫苗库失效。美国情报机构因此把基因编辑技术列为潜在的大规模杀伤性武器。

请关注今日《解放军报》的报道——

基因武器如何影响未来战争

■曹诗洋

杀伤力巨大的“生物原子弹”

安布雷拉、浣熊市、T病毒……这些游戏迷耳熟能详的名字构建了一个被失控的生物武器撕裂的虚拟世界:在秘密的科学实验室里,参与研究的上百名遗传学、生物工程学专家因感染病毒而变成了嗜血的“僵尸”,人一旦被他们咬伤或抓伤就会受到感染,立即变成同类。

实际上,从一战时期德国的流感细菌武器,到二战时期日本的731部队,再到冷战时期苏联规模空前的生物武器库,每段关于生物武器的历史都不可避免地泛着血腥,令人不寒而栗。进入21世纪以来,基因编辑技术蓬勃发展,人类基因组图谱顺利完成,生物武器的研究也进入了基因武器时代,一场现实版的“生化危机”或将拉开序幕。

20世纪70年代至80年代,分子遗传学迅猛发展,使研制基因武器成为可能。基因武器建立在对基因信息的载体——脱氧核糖核酸进行重组的基础之上,借助基因工程的方法可以实现基因分离和重组,形成复合脱氧核糖核酸,并在此基础上借助微生物实现基因转移,制成可改变遗传物质的生物武器。

由于基因武器是“剪”出来的新病毒、新细菌,遗传密码只有设计者才知道,对方很难及时破译并研制出新的疫苗与之对抗。即使更新了疫苗库,仍有源源不断的新的基因武器“整装待发”。研制疫苗的速度必定赶不上“投毒”的速度,这样一明一暗的“较量”,显然对防守的一方极为不利。

特别是随着基因组学的迅速发展,越来越多的致病微生物的完整基因序列已被发现,这些微生物可能都是引发“生化危机”的始作俑者。只要找到基因密码的突破口,就很容易将它们改造成杀伤力巨大的“生物原子弹”。

不动一兵一卒达成军事目的

与传统生物武器一样,基因武器具有体积小、造价低、不破坏非生命物质等特点。使用者不必兴师动众,只要通过人工、飞机、导弹等运载方式将基因武器投放到敌方区域,就能达成军事目的。显然,基因武器具有很多传统生物武器不可比拟的优势。

首先,基因武器的传染性及杀伤力更强。例如,通过移植繁殖能力强的基因片段,可以将致命病菌的繁殖扩散力增加数倍;通过移植致病能力强的基因片段,可将致死率提高至100%左右。其次,基因武器隐蔽性极强。针对不同的军事目的、环境及攻击目标,使用者可以人为设计基因武器的潜伏期。也就是说,人们可以把基因武器做成一种“定时炸弹”,并且“倒计时”最长可达十年之久。这是基因武器与传统生物武器、化学武器最主要的区别。

一旦基因武器投入使用,将使未来战争发生巨大变化:

——战争模式将发生变化。敌对双方可能在战前使用基因武器,使对方人员及生活环境遭到破坏,导致一个民族、一个国家丧失战斗力,在不流血中被征服。

——军队编制体制结构将发生变化。战斗部队将减少,而卫生勤务保障部队则大量增加。

——战略武器与战术武器将融为一体。未来战场将成为无形战场,使战场情况难以掌握和控制,给军事防御和军事医学研究带来新课题、新挑战。

基因武器将起到战略威慑作用

2014年以来,CRISPR基因编辑技术带来了一场科学界的革命。CRISPR系统,简单来说是一种适应性免疫系统,细菌可以利用该系统不动声色地把病毒基因从自己的染色体上切除,这是细菌特有的免疫力。在哺乳动物基因组中,CRISPR系统被发展成了一种高效、简捷的基因编辑技术,像一把万能的基因“剪刀”,能够同时开启或沉默某些基因,实现基因的“批量化”编辑。

该技术的发展使基因武器的研发如虎添翼,能够使基因武器靶标人群更精准、更快速,威慑力更大。美国情报机构已把“CRISPR基因编辑技术”列为潜在的大规模杀伤性武器。

但是,就CRISPR技术本身而言,目前还只局限于实验室中,实验失败率很高,更不用说研发大规模杀伤性武器了。现代战争向着多维度发展,随着信息化技术不断提高,战争更大程度上是对物质、能量、装备以及数据信息的对抗。以慢性杀伤人畜为手段的基因武器是否能用于实战,使用代价究竟有多大,这些问题还有待商榷。

此外,基因武器的“屠杀”不分军民,会带来严重的政治和道义上的风险,后果不可估量。而且,如果操作不当或者运气不佳,运输过程中一旦发生泄漏,伤到自己人,无异于“搬起石头砸自己的脚”。

长远来看,基因武器更多的是起到战略威慑作用。在现实世界里,人类对生命秘密的探索不过是冰山一角,基因工程并不是上帝的造物手,肆意滥用基因武器必将给全人类带来不可预测的灾难。

(图片由作者提供)


基因战争,笼罩人类的新阴影

原创2018-11-08 01:02·中国军号

日前,中国人基因大数据外泄的消息让人们虚惊一场。华大基因在回复深交所关于“14万中国人基因大数据”项目是否与外方机构或个人存在合作的询问时称,这个项目无外方合作机构,项目原始数据均存放于深圳国家基因库,项目分析工作均在境内由中国科研团队完成,不存在遗传资源数据出境的情况。

那么,为何基因数据外泄会引发民众担忧?原因很简单,足够数量的人类遗传基因样本,能够让一些国家研制出专门的“基因武器”,尤其是“人种基因武器”,或成为笼罩在世人头上新的阴影,让人不得不防。此前,俄罗斯总统普京曾证实,有人在有目的地采集俄罗斯人的生物样本资料。对此,俄专家警告称,俄罗斯民众的生物样本未来或将被用于制造细菌武器,应监控此类收集活动。

所谓基因武器就是用DNA重组技术改变细菌或病毒,使不致病的成为可致病的,让可以用疫苗或药物预防和救治的疾病,变得难以预防和治疗。把这种生物战剂放入特定装置,就可研制出基因武器。人种基因武器就是利用人种基因的不同,杀死针对的一部分人或使他们丧失部分能力,而同时使不针对的人群免受其害的生物战剂。有研究表明,人类DNA中99.7%至99.9%都是相同的,而这些占比很少的不同点,才是将各个种族区分开来的关键。因此,每个民族和人种都有独特的基因特征,从理论层面而言,根据这个特征就可以研制出杀伤预定种族对象的基因武器,从而有选择地攻击具有特定种族基因的目标。

目前,人类基因组测序工作的完成,使分析人种、种族之间在基因上的差异成为可能,特别是基因编辑技术的发展,人们可以按照主观意愿将一种生物的基因片段“剪接”到另一种生物上,从而改变其生理特征。这样,在理论上就可以设计出针对某一特定种族或民族的病毒。把这种基因战剂释放到战场上,就可以大量杀伤敌方士兵而己方丝毫无损。因此,从理论上看,制造针对具体基因群体或种族群体的基因武器已成为可能。

与传统的生物武器和化学武器相比,基因武器具有更强的隐蔽性、欺骗性、易扩散性和长远危害性,且难以预防、难以隔离、成本低廉,一旦被用于战争,造成的后果将是毁灭性的。由于基因武器只对某种特定人群具有杀伤作用,因此无法通过常规手段检测出毒性,且没有任何药物可以修复受伤害的基因。同时,由于基因武器是“剪”出来的新病毒、新细菌,遗传密码只有设计者才知道,被攻击一方很难及时破译并研制出新的疫苗与之对抗。另外,基因武器投放容易,可以利用昆虫为载体进行攻击。比如,用克隆的蚊子叮咬人群,释放出针对特定人群的基因武器,就可以达成攻击既定目标。目前,美国国防高级研究计划局已经开始利用昆虫传播基因修改病毒进行植物染色体编辑的试验。由此可见,在战术上,基因武器可以快捷地投放战场并大量杀伤敌方人员,从而扭转作战态势。而在战略上,基因武器和核武器一样,能对人的心灵造成极大伤害,具有显著的战略威慑作用。军事专家估算,用5000万美元建造一个基因武器库,其杀伤效能远超过花费千亿美元建起来的核武器库。因此,有人把基因武器称作“末日武器”“生物原子弹”,足以说明其威力之巨大。

凡事,预则立,不预则废。我们应尽早采取措施做好基因保密工作,防范被敌人利用。同时,我们还要认真研究基因密码,有针对性采用相应技术,提高基因抵抗力,以确保在未来可能面临的基因威慑与反威慑的斗争中不受制于人。


现代生命科技与未来战争

2020-03-22 03:01·光明网

【讲武堂】

作者:康耀武(国防大学军事管理学院副教授);康凯华(武警工程大学军事基础教育学院学员)

现代生命科学技术是指以生命为研究对象,基于对生命现象观察和实验基础上构成的庞大学科体系。进入21世纪,作为自然科学中发展最快、影响最大的学科之一,现代生命科学技术正以难以想象的速度在军事领域得到运用,将催生新的作战理念和作战样式,深刻影响世界新军事变革的方向。

军事科学院军事医学研究院科研人员查看实验结果。刘征云摄/光明图片

1.先进的科学技术总是最先应用于军事

随着现代生命科学技术的持续快速发展,以生物科学、脑科学为代表的新技术和新成果,在军事领域中的应用,范围越来越广、渗透越来越深,不断催生新的作战样式和作战理念。

现代生命科学技术的发展,为生物战剂的研制提供了无限的空间。生物武器是指以细菌、病毒、立克次体、生物组织、毒素等为战剂,使人类、动物和植物致病或死亡的物资、材料、器具等的统称,其核心是生物战剂。生物战剂可划分为三代:第一代是利用自然疫源性病原体;第二代是用人工技术培养病原体;第三代是用人工技术合成病原体。利用合成生物学、基因工程制造出的第三代生物战剂具有更强的毒性、耐药性、传染性,尤其是基因编辑技术的应用,使生物战剂具有特异性,或称种族性、精准性。目前生物武器的使用主要有两种方式,一个是生物战,另一个是生物恐怖袭击。生物武器应用于战争,就是所谓的生物战。一旦发生生物战,势必改变战争结果,并给人类带来巨大灾难。虽然20世纪70年代,国际上签署了《禁止生物武器公约》,但生物战的威胁始终未能消除。对于一些相对弱势的国家,使用生物武器成为其在非对称性军事对抗中的可能选择。随着生物科学技术的不断发展,生物战剂的技术和品种不断改进,逐步向多样化、小型化方向发展。

脑科学的研究起步较晚,但在现代生命科学技术乃及整个自然科学理论和技术体系的强力支撑下发展迅猛。脑科学具有广阔的军事应用前景,从目前的发展趋势看,主要有以下两个方面:一是控脑。通过非侵入性的脑脑接口或对大脑的特定部位实施特殊频谱信号刺激,达到干扰和控制大脑思维活动的目的。二是脑控。通过非侵入性脑机接口,实现大脑对生物目标或物理目标的直接控制。脑科学本身也属于两用性研究,在脑机接口、脑脑接口、大脑思维读取与意念控制等领域的研究逐步深入,读脑与脑控在不远的将来有可能成为现实。2013年8月,美国华盛顿大学科学家首次进行了人类之间非侵入式脑脑接口试验,研究人员通过互联网发送脑信号,成功控制远在校园另一侧的同伴的手部运动。这类技术伴随产生的军事威胁值得警惕,未来有可能催生新型脑机武器装备,出现“认知战”“大脑战”新的战争样式。

能力提升技术将得到更广泛应用。人体增强技术可以使得普通人以及军人更加高效地工作,并且能够在此前无法进入的环境中工作。其中包括,机械外骨骼、视网膜植入、听觉增进装置,甚至是提高智力的神经性药物等。有四类人体增强装置:一是体能增强装置可使人类更快更强。外骨骼等技术将大大增强人类能力,美军一直在尝试通过技术改善士兵体质功能,包括增强外骨骼力量,以增强个人的负重能力。二是大脑增强装置实现意念控制。脑机接口包括从脑到机、从机到脑两个方向,当前脑机接口系统绝大部分是单向的脑到机,也就是所谓的意念控制。还有部分是从机到脑,用于实现对动物行为的控制或诱导,即动物机器人。三是记忆增强药物让人类更聪明。神经性药物可以提高人的记忆力和思考速度,增强大脑功能。四是视听增强装置让人类变成“千里眼”和“顺风耳”。通过视网膜植入技术,人类不仅能恢复视力,甚至可以通过手术获得夜视能力。

资料图片

2.现代生命科技将对未来战争产生颠覆性影响

现代生命科学技术在军事领域的应用还处在上升阶段,发展的空间不可估量,对未来战争的影响可能是颠覆性的。

生物武器可能会成为战争威慑和制衡因素。核武器因其强大的杀伤力而成为当今世界各国之间竞相发展的战略威慑的核心力量,成为一个大国的战略支撑。现代生命科学技术支撑下的生物战剂发展空前迅速,它可以产生人类无法预防和控制的活性生物炸弹,突破人体的免疫系统,像大规模杀伤武器一样,能够在短时间内对人类产生巨大的杀伤效应;它也可以具有精准性,针对性攻击毁灭一个种族,或一个特定的人群,或一个特定的人;它的潜在巨大战争效能可以给人类带来极度的恐慌。其技术含量高、成本低、威胁大,可像核武器一样成为国家之间威慑和制衡的力量,从而影响国家的战略决策,改变战争的形态。

每一次新的军事革命都是以新的战争未知领域的拓展为标志。战场空间多维化是现代战争的特点,当今战争已由陆、海、空,发展到太空、电磁空间和网络空间,即由自然空间发展到虚拟空间。现代生命科学技术在战争领域的深入应用,将使战争空间由宏观进入微观。新的作战空间的出现,必然催生新的作战理论、作战样式、作战人员和作战装备。

像其他领域的科学技术一样,现代生命科学技术的进步和发展对战争制胜机理会产生深刻影响。从战场毁伤效应看,传统的战场毁伤效应以作战人员的伤亡和武器装备的毁损为标准综合判断,而生物化战争则直接以人为对象,战斗力依靠生物技术对战场人员机体的损伤、认知功能的控制和心理震慑来形成,可以说,战争由对生命的剥夺转为对能力和行为的控制,由硬杀伤变成了软杀伤、软损伤,战场对抗的着力点发生了根本的变化。从作战装备体系看,现代生命科学技术在战场的应用,突出的是技术手段,其战法已固化于技术手段中,使作战装备从有型化向无形化转变。从作战手段看,现代生命科学技术在战场的应用具有较强的隐匿性,其作战手段产生的效果有时很难判断是自然因素还是人为因素,可能会误导指挥判断,影响或改变战略决策。

3.着力构建军事生命科学技术发展体系

在新时代,构建军事生命科学技术发展体系,加强军事生命科学技术发展,是军队能打仗、打胜仗的必然要求。

第一是要完善军事生命科学技术发展宏观管理机制。一是推进体制建设。以此轮国防和军队改革及支援地方抗击新冠肺炎为契机,构建完善军队卫勤组织管理体系,形成全军上下一盘棋的组织管理构架,为军事生命科学技术发展提供坚强的组织保障。二是搞好顶层设计。紧密追踪国际军事生命科学技术发展趋势,从国家安全、军事战略安全的高度,科学规划制定攻防兼备的军事生命科学技术发展战略。三是强化保障力建设。建立长效稳定的投入机制,聚焦与军事相关的重点研究方向。

第二是要建设军事生命科学技术发展支撑平台。要构筑军事生命科学技术研发平台,建强军队生命科学技术科研和临床机构,大力发展与军事医学和作战相关的重点学科,为军事生命科学技术发展提供基础支撑。要创立军事生命科学技术信息服务平台,集成病原学、病理学、免疫学、流行病学、社会心理学、实验室检查、临床治疗等生命科学信息资源,为军事生命科学技术研究和决策提供信息支撑。要完善军事生命科学技术人才培训平台,建立以军医大学、科研院所、医疗机构为支撑,学历教育与任职教育相结合,层级分明、训用一致、覆盖全军的培训体系,为军事生命科学技术发展提供人力支撑。

第三是要加快研发颠覆性的军事生命科学技术。要紧紧围绕脑科学、生物科学等重点生命科学领域,集中优势资源集智攻关,研发一批具有颠覆性的军事生命科学关键技术。在生物科学方面,要加大研发力度,形成一批关键技术和装备,打造我军强大的生物安全防御体系。要充分利用3D生物打印技术、基因组编辑技术、神经影像技术、蛋白质研究技术、单分子单细胞技术等新技术手段,推动军事医学基础与应用研究的全面发展。

第四是要构建军民融合生命科学技术研发体系。要最大限度提高军地生命科学技术发展资源综合利用率。要抓好应急应战一体化建设,实现国防动员机制与国家应急机制的有效衔接。要加速推进军队与国家应急管理工作接轨,将军队卫生应急工作纳入规范化、制度化和法制化的轨道。

《光明日报》( 2020年03月22日07版)

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2020: Tsinghua U Public Emergency Response Plan

With the outbreak of student protests across China about Covid lockdowns and other grievances, many Chinese universities must be dusting off their emergency plans. The 2020 Tsinghua University plan translated below is one such plan. Some of these plans address emergencies that college deans the world over must worry about. Other address how to calm down and disperse unruly student protesters which threaten social stability. I marked some of the more interesting passages in italics. In a social stability emergency, the Tsinghua University Communist Party Committee takes the lead.

The document refers to the two offices 兩辦 I expect that would mean the office of the Tsinghua University Communist Party Committee and the Office of the President of the University but I didn’t find any reference on it online so I left it as the two offices.

Note: I earlier obtained and translated the 2014 emergency plan. Then I wondered if there is a later version. I found the latest online version — the 2020 version on the Tsinghua University website. Looking it over section-by-section, I found it be identical to the 2014 version down to the telephone number of the Tsinghua University emergency management office — 62782015.

The only difference is the date July 7. If one were to think of the traditional lunar calendar rather than solar calendar traditionally used by foreign forces, one might think of the seventh day of the seventh lunar month, when Herd Boy and Weaver girl make their annual romantic rendezvous. States the Baidu Online Encyclopedia, if pressed by Google Translate states “July 7th is the seventh sister’s birthday in the traditional sense. Because the worship activities are held on the evening of July 7th, it is named “Qixi”. July 7th is a traditional Chinese festival with a long history. It is a traditional custom of Qixi Festival to pay homage to the Seventh Sister, pray for blessings, make wishes, beg for skillful arts, sit and watch the Altair Vega, pray for marriage, and store water for Qixi Festival.” So one might ponder that if a sino-kremlinological depth of analysis is required in the new era as China becoming increasingly opaque. Party worries about Chinese demographic trends come to mind. Perhaps matchmaking services at Tsinghua University will soon be included in the Tsinghua emergency response plan.

Tsinghua University Emergency Response Plan for Public Emergencies

[清华大学突发公共事件应急预案]

July 7, 2020

Table of Contents

1. General Provisions ………………………………………………………………………………….. 1

1.1 Purpose of Preparation ………………………………………………………………………….. 1

1.2 Guiding Ideas ……………………………………………………………………………………….. 1

1.3 Basic principles …………………………………………………………………………………….. 1

1.4 Scope of application ………………………………………………………………………………. 2

1.5 Delineation of the level of public emergencies …………………………………………… 4

2. Emergency organization and command system and responsibilities  ………………. 5

2.1 School Emergency Response Leadership Team ………………………………………….. 5

2.2 School emergency leadership team office and main responsibilities ……………… 6

2.3 Composition and main responsibilities of each emergency response working group ………………………………….. 7

3. Prevention and early warning mechanism …………………………………………………….. 12

3.1 Information processing mechanism ……………………………………………………………. 12

3.2 Other working mechanisms ………………………………………………………………………. 14

4. Emergency plan activation response …………………………………………………………… 15

4.1 Emergency Response for Particularly Significant Events (Level I) and Major Events (Level II) ……. 15

4.2 Emergency Response for Larger Events (Level III) ……………………………………… 15

4.3 General Incident (Level IV) Emergency Response ……………………………………….. 15

5. End of emergency response …………………………………………………………………………. 16

6. Post-disposal …………………………………………………………………………………………….. 16

6.1 Aftercare ………………………………………………………………………………………………… 16

6.2 Investigation and Summary ………………………………………………………………………. 17

7. Emergency Security ……………………………………………………………………………………. 17

7.1 Information Assurance ……………………………………………………………………….. 17

7.2 Material Security ……………………………………………………………………….. 17

7.3 Financial Assurance ……………………………………………………………………….. 17

7.4 Personnel Security ……………………………………………………………………….. 18

8 Supervision and Management …………………………………………………………………………. 18

8.1 Publicity and Education ……………………………………………………………………….. 18

8.2 Training Exercises ……………………………………………………………………….. 18

8.3 Responsibility Rewards and Punishment ……………………………………………………………………….. 19

8.4 Preplanned Management ……………………………………………………………………….. 19

Tsinghua University Emergency Response Plan for Public Emergencies

1. General Provisions

1.1 Purpose of Preparation

In order to effectively prevent, timely control and properly deal with all kinds of public emergencies in the university, improve the ability of rapid response and emergency treatment, establish a sound emergency mechanism, ensure the safety of life and property of teachers, students and staff, ensure the normal order of education, teaching and life in the university, and maintain the stability of the university and society, this plan is formulated.

1.2 Guiding Ideology

Guided by the theory of Deng Xiaoping, the important thought of “Three Represents” and the scientific outlook on development, deeply implementing the spirit of the series of important speeches of General Secretary Xi Jinping and the spirit of the Third and Fourth Plenary Sessions of the 18th CPC Central Committee, starting from the realistic needs of building a world-class university, taking the Ministry of Education’s “Emergency Plan for Public Emergencies in the Education System” and Beijing’s “General Emergency Plan for Public Emergencies in Beijing” as the guiding principles. Based on the Ministry of Education’s “Emergency Plan for Public Emergencies in Education System”, Beijing Municipal “Overall Emergency Plan for Public Emergencies” and other laws and regulations and relevant policies, the university will build an emergency response system with “centralized leadership, unified command, complete structure, comprehensive functions, responsive and efficient operation”, and improve the university’s ability to respond to public emergencies.

1.3 Basic Principles

(1) People-oriented. To protect the fundamental interests of students, teachers and staff, to protect the lives and property of students, teachers and staff, is the starting point and anchor point of the school’s emergency work. Fully relying on the masses, actively preventing and minimizing the harm of public emergencies to students, teachers and staff, is an important responsibility of the school party organizations at all levels and all units.

(2) Unified command, rapid response. The school set up a leading group in charge of emergency disposal of public emergencies, establish and improve the rapid response mechanism for the disposal of public emergencies, to ensure that the discovery, reporting, command, disposal and other aspects of the close connection, to achieve rapid response, correct response, decisive disposal, and strive to solve the problem in the bud.

(3) Prevention-oriented, group prevention and control. Implement the work of public emergency management in the daily management of the school, strengthen the basic work, improve network construction, enhance the analysis of early warning, do a good job of planning exercises, improve the awareness of prevention, prevention and emergency disposal of the organic combination, and strive to achieve early detection, early reporting, early control, early resolution. After the occurrence of public emergencies, the person in charge of the relevant departments should immediately go to the front line to grasp the situation and control the situation. The formation of all relevant units of the school system linkage, group prevention and control of the disposal pattern.

(4) Distinguish the nature, disposal according to law. In the process of dealing with public emergencies, in accordance with the “move them with emotion,win their understanding by reasoning with them, you can disperse them but not let them gather, go along to calm things down but don’t let them get excited, you can divide them but not let them unite” [要按照“动之以情、晓之以理,可散不可聚,可顺不可激,可分不可结”的工作原则] principle of work, resolve conflicts in a timely fashion, prevent the situation from spreading. Strictly distinguish and correctly handle the two types of contradictions of different natures, strictly manage matters according to law, and effectively safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of teachers and students.

(5) Strengthen protective measures. Strengthen the security measures systematically, organizationally and materially in a comprehensive manner. In terms of leading institutions, financial guarantee, information guarantee and force deployment, strengthen hardware and software construction, enhance emergency response capability and improve work efficiency.

1.4 Scope of application

This plan is applicable to guide the prevention and emergency response to various types of public emergencies related to the school. The public emergencies referred to in this plan include the following seven categories.

(1) Security of Society Emergencies

Including: various illegal rallies, marches, demonstrations, petitions, collective strikes, class strikes, petitions, mass disturbances and other mass events involving teachers and students on and off campus, various illegal missionary activities, political activities, various terrorist attacks against teachers and students, unnatural deaths and disappearances of teachers and students, and other events that may affect campus and social stability.

(2) Public Health Emergencies

Including: sudden outbreak of mass food poisoning, infectious disease epidemics, mass unexplained diseases in schools; mass cardiac reactions or adverse reactions caused by vaccination or preventive medication; acute poisoning of school personnel caused by environmental pollution inside and outside the school; public health emergencies occurring in schools or in the school area that may cause health hazards to school teachers and students; occurring in schools, as determined by Other public health emergencies identified by the health administration.

(3) Accident and disaster type emergencies

Including: fire, building collapse, crowding and trampling and other major safety accidents in school buildings and premises, major traffic safety accidents on campus, drowning accidents on campus water and ice, public safety accidents in large group activities, logistical water supply, electricity, gas, heat, oil and other accidents that cause significant impact and loss, major environmental pollution and ecological damage accidents, other emergencies and disasters that affect the safety and stability of the school.

(4) Network and information security emergencies

Including: the use of campus network or campus information system to send harmful information, reactionary, pornographic, superstitious and other propaganda activities; theft, forgery of confidential information at all levels of education administration, schools, which may cause serious consequences; all kinds of damage, attacks on the campus network and campus information system, resulting in the paralysis of the campus information system application platform, the campus network can not be normal, effective operation of the event; unforeseen reasons (2) Events that cause the campus network and campus information system to fail to operate normally and effectively.

(5) Natural disaster emergencies

Including: floods, mudslides, landslides, ground subsidence and other natural disasters, geological disasters, urban meteorological disasters such as high winds, dust storms, ice and snow, heavy rainfall, lightning, etc., destructive earthquakes and various secondary disasters induced by earthquakes that may or have occurred to the school building facilities and personal safety of teachers and students.

(6)  Examination security and class emergencies

Including: the unified national examination and the unified examination organized by the school, in the design management and examination paper printing, delivery, storage and other aspects of the leak, as well as in the implementation of the examination, marking the organization and management of the process of irregularities or interruption of the work of the event.

(7) Other public emergencies that affect the security and stability of the university

1.5 Classification of public emergencies

School public emergencies are generally classified from high to low according to the urgency of the event, the scale of the formation, the manner and intensity of the behavior, the possible harm and impact, and the trend of possible spread and development: especially significant events (level I), major events (level II), larger events (level III), and general events (level IV).

Particularly significant events (Level I): meet the criteria of the Ministry of Education’s Emergency Response Plan for Public Emergencies in Education System, the Beijing Overall Emergency Response Plan for Public Emergencies and relevant special emergency response plans for particularly significant events (Level I), which require unified organization, command and coordination by the Ministry of Education, the municipal government, and the dispatch of all forces and resources outside the school for emergency response.

Major event (Level II): A major event (Level II) that meets the criteria of the Ministry of Education’s Emergency Plan for Public Emergencies in the Education System, the Beijing Overall Emergency Plan for Public Emergencies and relevant special emergency plans, and requires the unified organization of the Ministry of Education, the municipal party committee and the municipal government, and the dispatch of forces and resources from multiple departments and relevant units outside the university for joint disposal.

Larger events (Ⅲ level): the larger events (Ⅲ level) that meet the criteria of the Ministry of Education’s Emergency Plan for Public Emergencies in Education System, the Beijing Overall Emergency Plan for Public Emergencies and relevant special emergency plans, and require the Ministry of Education, the municipal party committee and the municipal government to dispatch the forces and resources of individual departments and units outside the school to deal with the emergency public events.

General events (Level Ⅳ): The general events (Level Ⅳ) that meet the standards of the Ministry of Education’s Emergency Plan for Public Emergencies in the Education System, the Beijing General Emergency Plan for Public Emergencies and relevant special emergency plans, and require only the power and resources of the Ministry of Education, the municipal party committee and the municipal government to dispatch individual departments and units outside the school or can be dealt with by the school.

2. Emergency organization and command system and responsibilities

2.1 School emergency public events emergency response leadership team

Group leader: the Secretary of the school Communist Party Committee

Deputy leader: the school leader in charge of related work

Members: the two offices, the Organization Department, the Propaganda Department, the Discipline Inspection Office, the Defense Department, the Student Department, the Graduate Work Department, the United Front Work Department, the Youth League Committee, the General Affairs Office, the Street, the Graduate School, the Office of Academic Affairs, the International Office, the Office of Education and Training, the Research Institute, the Retirement Office, the Personnel Office, the Finance Office, the University Hospital, the Laboratory Office, the Housing Office, the Infrastructure Office, the Labor Union, the Information Office, the Information Technology Center, the affiliated schools and other units in charge.

The main responsibilities of the school emergency leadership team: under the unified leadership of the Ministry of Education, the municipal party committee, the municipal government and the municipal education working committee, the school is fully responsible for the disposal of all types of public emergencies emergency response actions, the issuance of emergency disposal work tasks; in the prediction of public emergencies will occur and have occurred, the emergency response plan is activated and the organization and command of the response to emergencies; in the process of dealing with public emergencies coordinate with relevant departments and units outside the school; when the emergency is beyond the school’s disposal capacity, report to the Ministry of Education, the Municipal Education Commission and relevant departments in accordance with the procedures and request instructions and support; decide the criteria and content of information to be reported to the Ministry of Education, the Municipal Education Commission and relevant departments, as well as request instructions and support from higher authorities; decide the caliber, time and manner of publishing and publicizing information related to the incident; etc. Deploy and summarize the school’s annual emergency public event response work.

2.2 School emergency leading group office and main responsibilities

School emergency response leading group office is located in the two offices, the director of the party Communist Party Committee Office is the director, the director of the school office, the director of the General Affairs Office, the Security Office director, the Student Affairs Office director, and the head of Research and Development Department deputy director. Daily work is shared by the two offices, the General Affairs Office, the Security Office, the Office of Students, the Research Offoce.

The main responsibilities of the school emergency leadership team office: to perform the duty of emergency response, information aggregation, comprehensive coordination functions, play a role in the operation of the hub. Collect and analyze the corresponding data and work in a timely manner, and propose guidelines and specific measures for handling various types of public emergencies to the school emergency leadership group; summarize the experience and lessons learned in dealing with public emergencies in a timely manner in conjunction with the emergency disposal working group; supervise and check the implementation of the emergency handling of public emergencies in each unit of the school; propose the responsibility of the responsible person according to the nature of the public emergencies. According to the nature of public emergencies, the responsibility of the responsible person should be investigated and reported to the school emergency leadership group.

2.3 Composition and main responsibilities of the emergency response working group

According to the categories of public emergencies, the school emergency leadership group set up the corresponding emergency response working group. When a public emergency is predicted to occur or has occurred, on the basis of the structure of the emergency response working group, according to the severity of the emergency and the departments and units involved, the emergency site command consisting of the main school leader or the school leader in charge and the person in charge of the relevant departments and units will be established.

Each emergency disposal working group (emergency site command) and relevant units should coordinate the disposal or take the lead in coordinating the disposal of related public emergencies under the unified command of the emergency leadership group and the responsible school leaders according to their work responsibilities. Each disposal working group (emergency scene command) should dynamically adjust the event level according to the development trend of the event, constantly adjust the emergency measures and programs, increase the emergency disposal efforts, and improve the relevance and timeliness of the emergency disposal work.

(1) Security of society level emergency disposal working group

The leader of the group is in charge of the school leadership, the deputy head of the Minister of Student Affairs, the Minister of Research and Development, the Minister of Security. Members of the working group consists of the two offices, the Department of Students, the Department of Research, the Department of Defense, the Propaganda Department, the United Front Work Department, the Youth League Committee, the Graduate School, the Office of Academic Affairs, the Office of Personnel, the Office of Finance, the Office of Retirement, the International Office, the Office of Education and Training, the Information Technology Center, the University Hospital and other units in charge of the party committee (Party General Branch) of each faculty. Other relevant units cooperate with it. The office of the working group is located in the Office of Students, and the daily work is undertaken by the Department of Students and the Department of Research and Development.

When security of society emergencies are predicted to occur or have occurred, based on the structure of the emergency response working group, according to the severity of the emergency and the departments and units involved, an emergency site command consisting of the main school leaders or leaders in charge of the school, the heads of relevant departments and units will be established.

The main responsibilities of the working group (emergency site command) are: unified decision-making, organization and command of the school response to emergencies involving security of society; research to determine the nature, type and level of the event, determine the link with other types of specific events emergency disposal plan, and issue emergency disposal tasks; timely to the scene of the incident to command and supervise the relevant units to carry out the disposal of the incident; research just how much information is to be released to the public and at what time, reported to the school emergency work leadership group and organized the implementation; with the school emergency leadership group office summary evaluation of emergency disposal work.

(2) Public health emergencies emergency management working group

The team leader is in charge of the school leadership, the deputy leader is the director of the school hospital, the director of the General Affairs Office, the director of the street office. Members of the working group consist of the two offices, the General Affairs Office, the University Hospital, the street, the Department of Security, the Department of Students, the Research and Development Department, the Propaganda Department, the United Front Work Department, the Youth League Committee, the Trade Union, the Retirement Office, the International Office and other units in charge. Other relevant units cooperate with each other. The office of the working group is set up in the university hospital, and the daily work is undertaken by the university hospital, the General Affairs Office and the streets.

When public health emergencies are predicted to occur and have occurred, on the basis of the structure of the emergency response working group, according to the severity of the emergencies and the departments and units involved, an emergency site command consisting of the main school leaders or leaders in charge of the school, and the heads of relevant departments and units will be established.

The main responsibilities of the working group (emergency site command) are: under the guidance of the government health administration, responsible for the emergency disposal of public health emergencies in schools; improve the information monitoring and reporting network of public health emergencies, timely collection of information related to public health emergencies in schools, and report the situation to the relevant departments as required, propose relevant countermeasures and measures, and study matters such as requests for instructions and assistance; popularize Health and epidemic prevention, food hygiene and related safety knowledge; guide, organize and coordinate all units as well as teachers and students to respond to and deal with public health emergencies in an emergency; supervise the implementation of the prevention and control mechanism of public emergencies in all units of the school; study the caliber and release time and manner of public announcement and public information related to the incident; summarize and evaluate the emergency disposal work together with the office of the school emergency leadership team.

(3) Accident and disaster type emergency response working group

The team leader is in charge of the school leadership, the deputy leader is the director of the General Affairs Office, the Minister of Defense. Members of the working group consists of the two offices, the General Affairs Office, the street, the Department of Defense, the Department of Students, the Research Department, the Propaganda Department, the United Front Work Department, the Youth League Committee, the Graduate School, the Office of Academic Affairs, the University Hospital, the Finance Department, the Laboratory Department, the Retirement Department, the Housing Department, the Infrastructure Department, the International Department and other units in charge. Other relevant units are responsible for cooperation. The office of the working group is located in the General Affairs Office, and the daily work is undertaken by the General Affairs Office.

When an accident or disaster is predicted to occur or has occurred, according to the severity of the emergency and the departments and units involved, an emergency site command consisting of the main school leader or the school leader in charge and the heads of relevant departments and units will be established.

The main responsibilities of the working group (emergency site command) are: unified decision making, organization and command of the response actions of the accident and disaster type emergencies involving the school. Guide the school units to establish a sound accident safety prevention and early warning mechanism; inspect and guide the accident and disaster prevention and disposal work, and enter the scene to coordinate disposal and control the development if necessary; propose relevant countermeasures and measures according to the accident and disaster situation, and decide whether to suspend classes in a certain range, whether to carry out personnel evacuation and other emergency treatment methods; actively cooperate with the relevant government departments for emergency disposal work; and Research on matters such as reporting information to higher levels and relevant government departments, requesting instructions and assistance; research on the caliber and release time and manner of publicizing and disclosing information related to the incident; summarize and evaluate the emergency disposal work with the university emergency leadership team office.

(4) Network and Information Security Emergency Response Working Group

Team leader by the deputy secretary of the party committee in charge of propaganda, deputy leader by the deputy secretary of the party committee in charge of student work, the director of the party office, the minister of publicity. The working group is composed of the heads of the two offices, the Information Office, the Propaganda Department, the Student Department, the Research and Development Department, the Security Department, the Information Technology Center, the Library and other departments. Other relevant units cooperate with it. The office of the working group is located in the Information Office, and the daily work is undertaken by the Information Office and the Information Technology Center.

The main responsibilities of the emergency disposal working group: to lead the school network information management and network publicity and education work, to make decisions on major issues; responsible for the emergency disposal of the school network and information security emergencies. Emergency disposal includes: 24-hour monitoring of harmful information on the campus network through technical means; timely disposal of major harmful information spreading on the campus network, or the campus network system suffering from large-scale hacker attacks and computer virus proliferation events; timely reporting, disposal and stopping when the campus network is under serious attack from within or outside the country, in the event of extremely serious and uncontrollable large-scale security events, to ensure the campus network The normal and stable operation of the campus network; coordinate with relevant departments to carry out emergency response work; study the caliber and release time and manner of external announcement and public information related to the incident; summarize and evaluate the emergency response work in conjunction with the Office of the Emergency Response Leadership Team.

(5) Natural disaster emergency response team

The head of the group is the leader in charge of the school, the deputy head of the President’s Office, the Director of the General Affairs Office, the Minister of Defense. Members of the working group consists of the two offices, the General Affairs Office, the street, the Department of Defense, the Minister of Student Affairs, the Research and Development Department, the Propaganda Department, the United Front Work Department, the Youth League Committee, the Graduate School, the Office of Academic Affairs, the University Hospital, the Finance Department, the Laboratory Department, the Retirement Department, the Housing Department, the Infrastructure Department, the International Department and other units in charge. Other relevant units cooperate with each other. The office of the working group is located in the General Affairs Office, and its daily work is undertaken by the General Affairs Office.

When natural disaster emergencies are predicted to occur or have occurred, based on the structure of the emergency response working group and the severity of the emergencies and the departments and units involved, an emergency site command consisting of the main school leader or the school leader in charge, and the heads of relevant departments and units will be established.

The main responsibilities of the working group (emergency site command) are: unified decision-making, organization and command of the response to natural disaster emergencies involving the school. Guide the school units to establish and improve the prevention and early warning mechanism of natural disasters; inspect and guide the prevention and disposal of natural disasters, enter the scene when necessary to coordinate the disposal and control the development of the situation; propose relevant countermeasures and measures according to the situation of natural disasters, decide whether to suspend classes in a certain range, whether to evacuate personnel and other emergency treatment methods; actively cooperate with the relevant government departments for emergency disposal work. Research on matters such as reporting information, requesting instructions and assistance to higher levels and relevant government departments; research on the caliber and release time and manner of publicizing and disclosing information related to the incident; summarize and evaluate the emergency disposal work with the school emergency leadership team office.

(6) Working group for emergency management of examination security emergencies

The leader of the group is in charge of the university, the deputy leader is the director of the Office of Academic Affairs, the executive vice president of the Graduate School, the minister of the Department of Defense, and the members of the working group are the two offices, the Office of Academic Affairs, the Graduate School, the Department of Defense, the Department of Students, the Department of Research and Development, the Discipline and Supervision Commission, the Department of Education and Training, the secondary school and other units in charge. Other relevant units cooperate with it. The office of the working group is located in the Academic Affairs Office, and the daily work is undertaken by the Academic Affairs Office and the Graduate School.

When an emergency event of examination security is predicted to occur or has occurred, based on the structure of the working group for emergency management and the seriousness of the emergency event and the departments and units involved, an emergency site command consisting of the main school leaders or leaders in charge of the school, and the heads of relevant departments and units will be established.

The main responsibilities of the working group (emergency site command) are: to coordinate the handling of public emergencies arising from the national examinations and the school examinations, such as the design and confidentiality of examinations; to activate the corresponding plans and take corresponding measures; to study the caliber and time and way of releasing information related to the incident; and to summarize and evaluate the emergency handling work together with the office of the school emergency leadership team.

3 Prevention and early warning mechanism

3.1 Information processing mechanism

Establish a smooth information transmission channel and strict information reporting mechanism, and improve the rapid emergency information system.

(1) Information reporting principles

Promptly: The first unit and individual who finds out that a public emergency has occurred or receives relevant information should report to the office of the school emergency leading group within the first time (telephone: 62782015), without delay. The school emergency leadership team office should report to the main leadership and competent leadership of the school immediately after the incident, and depending on the specific circumstances of the incident, immediately report to the Ministry of Education, the Municipal Education Commission and relevant departments, no later than 3 hours. Each emergency management working group (emergency site command) should be immediately in place to take appropriate disposal measures and keep the communication open. If necessary, advance notice can be given to the school radio, television, network and other media to prepare for broadcast, as far as possible to evacuate, rescue personnel.

Accuracy: Understand the basic situation of the cause and nature of public emergencies as comprehensively as possible, and report in the form of information in a timely manner. The content of the information should be objective and informative, not subjective, no concealment, omission or misrepresentation.

Confidentiality: In the case of public emergencies, in accordance with the requirements of confidentiality, to ensure that the entire process of handling information on the incident does not appear to be a breach of confidentiality, leakage. Telephone, fax, computer networks and other means of information transmission must have strict confidentiality measures.

Continued reporting: After the event situation has changed, the event should be renewed in a timely manner about the changes in the situation.

(2) Information reporting mechanism

Emergency telephone reporting system. After receiving the report on the situation of public emergencies, the school emergency leadership team office will report the information to the school’s main leaders and leaders in charge according to the information reporting procedures, and at the same time, the information will be notified to the corresponding emergency disposal working group and units. The instructions or directions made by the school leaders are conveyed to the relevant units in a timely manner.

Emergency document reporting system. After the execution of the telephone report of public emergencies, the school emergency leadership team office should immediately report in writing formally to the emergency leadership team leader, deputy leader, office director and deputy director, notify the relevant emergency disposal working groups and units, and work in accordance with the corresponding plans and leadership requirements. Major event information, the school emergency leadership team office according to the school leadership, in the form of information special report to the Ministry of Education, the Municipal Education Work Committee, and depending on the situation and nature of the event, report to the relevant departments.

(3) The Main Topics of Emergency Information Bulletins

The basic situation of the incident, including the time, location, scale, personnel involved, the extent of damage and casualties.

  • Analysis of the cause of the incident, judgment of the nature and assessment of the degree of impact.
  • The measures taken by the university and relevant units.
  • The reaction of the public and the media, both on and off campus
  • The state of development of the incident, the process and results of disposal.
  • Other matters that need to be reported.

3.2 Other working mechanisms

(1) Under the unified deployment of the university emergency response leadership team, all units should support and cooperate with each other. Work measures should be refined, personnel should be implemented, responsibilities should be clarified, and all work and requirements should be put into practice.

(2) Strengthen the daily management of the emergency response mechanism, and continuously apply and improve the emergency disposal plan in practice. Strengthen personnel training, carry out regular exercise activities, improve the theoretical quality and practical skills of the team, and continuously improve the command ability and practical ability to respond to public emergencies.

(3) Respond well to various types of public emergencies in terms of human, material and financial reserves, to ensure the prevention of public emergencies, on-site control of emergency facilities, equipment and the necessary funding.

(4) Do a good job of information dissemination to the public. Strictly follow the regulations of the Ministry of Education, the Municipal Education Commission and relevant departments. To distinguish different situations and grasp the initiative of information release and public opinion. Information release should be comprehensive, objective, accurate and timely. The press release of various types of public emergencies in schools is the unified responsibility of the Propaganda Department.

4 Emergency plan to start the response

4.1 Particularly significant events (level I) and major events (level II) emergency response

After the occurrence of particularly significant events (level Ⅰ) and major events (level Ⅱ), the school emergency leadership team immediately starts the corresponding plan, and the relevant disposal working group immediately mobilizes all resources and forces for emergency disposal work. The main leader of the school acts as the overall commander of the emergency disposal work on site, and the members of the emergency leadership team and the relevant disposal work group members organize the work at the scene of the emergency and until the end of the emergency response. The emergency disposal situation should be reported to the Ministry of Education, the Municipal Education Commission and relevant departments at any time.

4.2 Larger events (Ⅲ level) emergency response

After the occurrence of a larger event (level Ⅲ), the school emergency leadership team immediately start the corresponding plan, the relevant disposal working group immediately set up an emergency site command, unified mobilization of resources and forces for emergency disposal work. School leaders in charge of the scene of the emergency disposal work as the commander-in-chief, members of the emergency site command in the emergency site organization work and until the end of the emergency response. The emergency disposal situation should be reported to the main leadership of the school and the higher authorities at any time. If the situation of public emergencies changes, depending on the nature and development trend of the event, the emergency response level should be adjusted in a timely manner.

4.3 General events (Ⅳ level) emergency response

After the occurrence of general events (Ⅳ level), the school emergency leadership team should immediately start the corresponding plan. The relevant disposal working group immediately set up an emergency site command, unified mobilization of resources and forces for emergency disposal work. Members of the emergency site command should be organized at the scene of the emergency until the end of the emergency response. The emergency disposal situation should be reported to the school leadership and higher authorities at any time. If the situation of public emergencies changes, depending on the nature and development trend of the event, the emergency response level should be adjusted in a timely manner.

5 Mechanism for Determining the Termination of the Emergency

The emergency management work has basically completed, secondary, derivative and event hazards are basically eliminated, the emergency disposal work is over.

After the end of the emergency disposal of public emergencies, the emergency leadership team will summarize the emergency disposal work summary reported to the higher authorities, after agreeing to the end of the emergency disposal work. General public emergencies by the school emergency leadership team to declare the end of the emergency. Larger, major and especially major public emergencies are declared by the higher authority to end the emergency.

After the end of the disposal of public emergencies, the situation will be promptly notified to the relevant departments and units involved in emergency disposal. If necessary, release the news of the end of emergency through the school media or release the news of the end of emergency to the society through the news media.

6 Post-incident management

6.1 Post-incident work

Under the unified leadership of the Ministry of Education and the Municipal Education Commission, the school and relevant functional departments are responsible for the implementation of the post-emergency disposal of public events.

Relevant departments of the school shall organize forces to fully carry out the approved work of damage of public emergencies, collect, clean up and handle pollutants in a timely manner, make assessment of the incident situation, compensation for personnel, compensation for requisitioned materials, reconstruction capacity, available resources, etc., organize social assistance, develop compensation standards and post-event recovery plans, and implement them promptly.

6.2 Investigation and summary

The school emergency leadership team set up a public emergency cause investigation team, organized experts to investigate and analyze the causes and development trend of the accident, predict the consequences of the accident, and report to the higher authorities.

The school emergency leadership team office summarizes the school’s experience and lessons learned in dealing with public emergencies, evaluates the emergency disposal work, develops corrective measures, and pursues responsibilities.

7 Emergency security

7.1 Information security

Each functional department of the school, each faculty (institute) should establish and implement the operating mechanism of information reporting, emergency disposal and other aspects of public emergencies, keep the communication methods convenient and fast to ensure the safety and smooth flow of information reporting channels. Where the level of public emergencies reached the delineation, should be reported to the unit’s main leadership to deal with in a timely manner, while reporting to the competent departments and school leaders in charge. Report relevant information to higher departments to the school emergency leadership team.

7.2 Material security

General Affairs Office, the street committee, the laboratory department, the school hospital, the Ministry of Defense and other relevant units should establish a reserve of materials for the disposal of public emergencies, to ensure the integrity and availability of materials and equipment to deal with various situations.

7.3 Financial guarantee

Emergency funds are uniformly included in the university’s financial budget. The general situation by each unit, the budget funds of each department, special circumstances by the Finance Office separately, to ensure that the emergency disposal of public emergencies required funds.

7.4 Personnel Security

All departments and units should set up emergency teams for public emergencies in accordance with the requirements of the school, and once the plan is launched, immediately put into disposal work. The school emergency team is mainly composed of student thought and education managers, safety and security personnel, medical and nursing personnel, logistics personnel and student backbone. The emergency team should be adjusted in accordance with the specific circumstances and requirements of public emergencies in a timely manner, involving students in the emergency team in principle, once a year to ensure the integrity and stability of the emergency team.

8 Supervision and management

8.1 Publicity and Education

Relevant units should make full use of the school radio, TV, campus network and other organizations to carry out the propaganda of emergency laws and regulations and emergency knowledge such as prevention, risk avoidance, self-help and self-care. Actively do a good job of safety education in the classroom, and strive to enhance the awareness of teachers, students and staff to learn and master the basic knowledge and skills of emergency response, in order to meet the needs of public emergency disposal.

8.2 Training Exercises

(1) The school organizes training for command staff of each unit dealing with public emergencies. The Security Office, General Affairs Office, Street, Student Department, Research and Development Department, Publicity Department, Graduate School, Academic Affairs Office, University Hospital, and Information Technology Center undertake the training of emergency teams. The prevention of public emergencies, emergency command, and comprehensive coordination are taken as important contents to increase the knowledge and ability of emergency teams to deal with public emergencies.

(2) The school organizes mock drills for the command system of emergency response to public emergencies as appropriate. The General Affairs Office, the Department of Security, the street, and the school hospital regularly organize professional emergency response team drills; the Department of Students, the Department of Research and Development, and each faculty (institute) organize relevant drills for students in accordance with the requirements of higher authorities and the school. Emergency drills include three stages: preparation, implementation and summary. Through emergency drills, train emergency teams, implement a job responsibility system, familiarize with the command mechanism, decision-making, coordination and disposal procedures of emergency work, identify resource needs, evaluate emergency status, test the feasibility of the plan and improve the emergency plan.

8.3 Responsibility rewards and punishments

(1) emergency response to public emergencies to implement the leadership responsibility system and accountability system. Late reporting, false reporting, concealment and omission of important situations of public emergencies or emergency response work in other dereliction of duty, dereliction of duty, according to law to the person responsible for administrative sanctions; constitutes a crime, according to law to investigate criminal responsibility.

(2) in the emergency response to public emergencies in the work of advanced groups and individuals who have made outstanding contributions, to give recognition and awards.

8.4 Pre-planned management

The emergency plan for public emergencies in the university is divided into the overall emergency plan for public emergencies in Tsinghua University and various special emergency plans. The special emergency plans include “Emergency Plan for security of society“, “Emergency Plan for Public Health”, “Emergency Plan for Accident and Disaster“, “Emergency Plan for Network and Information Security“, “Emergency Plan for Natural Disasters” and “Emergency Plan for Examination Security“. The Emergency Plan of Tsinghua University

The overall emergency plan for public emergencies of Tsinghua University is formulated and revised by the Emergency Leading Group of Tsinghua University, and the special emergency plans are formulated and revised by the corresponding emergency response working groups and submitted to the Emergency Leadership Group for approval.

This plan shall be interpreted and organized by the emergency leading group of the university.

This plan shall be implemented from the date of release.


清华大学突发公共事件应急预案

2020年七月七日

目 录

  1. 总则………………………………………………………………………………….. 1
    1.1 编制目的…………………………………………………………………………. 1
    1.2 指导思想…………………………………………………………………………. 1
    1.3 基本原则…………………………………………………………………………. 1
    1.4 适用范围…………………………………………………………………………. 2
    1.5 突发公共事件的级别划定………………………………………………………… 4
  2. 应急组织指挥体系及职责……………………………………………………….…….. 5
    2.1 学校突发公共事件应急处置工作领导小组………………………………………… 5
    2.2 学校应急领导小组办公室及主要职责…………………………………….……… 6
    2.3 各应急处置工作组组成及主要职责………………………………………………..7
  3. 预防与预警机制……………………………………………………………..……. 12
    3.1 信息处理机制………………………………………………………………… 12
    3.2 其他工作机制………………………………………………………………… 14
  4. 应急预案启动响应………………………………………………………………… 15
    4.1 特别重大事件(Ⅰ级)和重大事件(Ⅱ级)应急响应……………………………. 15
    4.2 较大事件(Ⅲ级)应急响应……………………………………….……….… 15
    4.3 一般事件(Ⅳ级)应急响应……………………………………………….… 15
  5. 应急结束…………………………………………………………………………. 16
  6. 后期处置…………………………………………………………………………. 16
    6.1 善后处置工作………………………………………………………………… 16
    6.2 调查和总结……………………………………………………………………. 17
  7. 应急保障…………………………………………………………………….……. 17
    7.1 信息保障………………………………………………………………………. 17
    7.2 物资保障………………………………………………………………………. 17
    7.3 资金保障………………………………………………………………………. 17
    7.4 人员保障………………………………………………………………………. 18
  8. 监督管理…………………………………………………………………………… 18
    8.1 宣传教育……………………………………………………………………… 18
    8.2 培训演练……………………………………………………………………… 18
    8.3 责任奖惩……………………………………………………………………… 19
    8.4 预案管理……………………………………………………………………… 19

清华大学突发公共事件应急预案

  1. 总则
    1.1 编制目的
    为有效预防、及时控制和妥善处理学校各类突发公共事件,提高快速反应和应急处理能力,建立健全应急机制,确保学校师生员工的生命和财产安全,保证学校正常的教育教学和生活秩序,维护学校和社会稳定,制定本预案。
    1.2 指导思想
    以邓小平理论、“三个代表”重要思想、科学发展观为指导,深入贯彻习近平总书记系列重要讲话精神和党的十八届三中、四中全会精神,从建设世界一流大学的现实需要出发,以教育部《教育系统突发公共事件应急预案》、北京市《北京市突发公共事件总体应急预案》等法律法规和相关政策为依据,构建“集中领导、统一指挥、结构完整、功能全面、反应灵敏、运转高效”的突发公共事件应急体系,全面提高学校应对突发公共事件的能力。
    1.3 基本原则
    (1)以人为本。维护师生员工的根本利益,保护师生员工的生命财产安全,是学校应急工作的出发点和落脚点。充分依靠群众,积极预防和最大限度地减少突发公共事件对师生员工的危害,是学校各级党组织、各单位的重要职责。
    (2)统一指挥,快速反应。学校成立突发公共事件应急处置工作领导小组全面负责应急处置工作,建立健全处置突发公共事件的快速反应机制,确保发现、报告、指挥、处置等环节的紧密衔接,做到快速反应,正确应对,处置果断,力争问题解决在萌芽状态。
    (3)预防为主,群防群控。把应对突发公共事件管理的各项工作落实在学校日常管理之中,加强基础工作,完善网络建设,增强预警分析,做好预案演练,提高防范意识,将预防与应急处置有机结合起来,力争实现早发现、早报告、早控制、早解决。发生突发公共事件后,相关部门负责人要立即深入一线,掌握情况,控制局面。形成学校各有关单位系统联动、群防群控的处置格局。
    (4)区分性质,依法处置。在处置突发公共事件过程中,要按照“动之以情、晓之以理,可散不可聚,可顺不可激,可分不可结”的工作原则,及时化解矛盾,防止事态扩大。要严格区分和正确处理两类不同性质的矛盾,严格依法行政,切实维护师生的合法权益。
    (5)加强保障。从制度上、组织上、物质上全面加强保障措施。在领导机构、经费保障、信息保障和力量部署等方面,加强硬件与软件建设,增强应急能力,提高工作效率。
    1.4 适用范围
    本预案适用于指导预防和应急处置与学校有关的各类突发公共事件。本预案所指的突发公共事件包括以下七类。
    (1)社会安全类突发事件
    包括:校园内外涉及学校师生的各种非法集会、游行、示威、请愿以及集体罢餐、罢课、上访、聚众闹事等群体性事件,各种非法传教活动、政治性活动,针对师生的各类恐怖袭击事件,师生非正常死亡、失踪等可能会引发影响校园和社会稳定的事件等。
    (2)公共卫生类突发事件
    包括:学校内突发的群体性食物中毒、传染病疫情、群体性不明原因疾病;因预防接种或预防性服药造成的群体性心因反应或不良反应;因校内外环境污染造成的学校人员急性中毒事件;学校内或学校所在地区发生的、可能对学校师生员工健康造成危害的突发公共卫生事件;发生在学校的,经卫生行政部门认定的其他突发公共卫生事件。
    (3)事故灾难类突发事件
    包括:学校楼堂馆舍等发生的火灾、建筑物倒塌、拥挤踩踏等重大安全事故,校园重大交通安全事故,校园水面冰面溺水事故,大型群体活动公共安全事故,造成重大影响和损失的后勤供水、电、气、热、油等事故,重大环境污染和生态破坏事故,影响学校安全与稳定的其他突发灾难事故等。
    (4)网络与信息安全类突发事件
    包括:利用校园网络或校园信息系统发送有害信息,进行反动、色情、迷信等宣传活动;窃取、伪造各级教育行政部门、学校的保密信息,可能造成严重后果的事件;各种破坏、攻击校园网络与校园信息系统,造成校园信息系统应用平台瘫痪、校园网络不能正常、有效运行的事件;不可预见原因造成校园网络与校园信息系统不能正常、有效运行的事件等。
    (5)自然灾害类突发事件
    包括:可能或已经发生的对学校建筑设施、师生员工人身安全造成危害的洪水、泥石流、山体滑坡、地面沉降等自然灾害、地质灾害,大风、沙尘暴、冰雪、强降雨、雷电等城市气象灾害,破坏性地震及由地震诱发的各种次生灾害。
    (6)考试安全类突发事件
    包括:国家统一考试和学校组织的统一考试中,在命题管理和试卷印刷、运送、保管等环节出现的泄密事件,以及在考试实施、评卷组织管理过程中发生的违规事件或致使工作中断的事件。
    (7)影响学校安全与稳定的其它突发公共事件
    1.5 突发公共事件的级别划定
    学校突发公共事件按照事件的紧迫程度、形成的规模、行为方式和激烈程度、可能造成的危害和影响、可能蔓延发展的趋势等由高到低一般分为:特别重大事件(Ⅰ级)、重大事件(Ⅱ级)、较大事件(Ⅲ级)、一般事件(Ⅳ级)。
    特别重大事件(Ⅰ级):符合教育部《教育系统突发公共事件应急预案》、《北京市突发公共事件总体应急预案》及相关专项应急预案中特别重大事件(Ⅰ级)标准,需要由教育部、市委、市政府统一组织、指挥、协调,调度校外各方面力量和资源进行应急处置的突发公共事件。
    重大事件(Ⅱ级):符合教育部《教育系统突发公共事件应急预案》、《北京市突发公共事件总体应急预案》及相关专项应急预案重大事件(Ⅱ级)标准,需要教育部、市委、市政府统一组织,调度校外多个部门和相关单位力量和资源进行联合处置的突发公共事件。
    较大事件(Ⅲ级):符合教育部《教育系统突发公共事件应急预案》、《北京市突发公共事件总体应急预案》及相关专项应急预案较大事件(Ⅲ级)标准,需要教育部、市委、市政府调度校外个别部门和单位力量和资源进行处置的突发公共事件。
    一般事件(Ⅳ级):符合教育部《教育系统突发公共事件应急预案》、《北京市突发公共事件总体应急预案》及相关专项应急预案一般事件(Ⅳ级)标准,只需要教育部、市委、市政府调度校外个别部门力量和资源就能够处置或者学校能够处置的突发公共事件。
  2. 应急组织指挥体系及职责
    2.1 学校突发公共事件应急处置工作领导小组
    组 长:校党委书记
    副组长:分管相关工作的校领导
    成 员:两办、组织部、宣传部、纪委办、保卫部、学生部、研究生工作部、统战部、团委、总务办、街道、研究生院、教务处、国际处、教培处、科研院、离退休处、人事处、财务处、校医院、实验室处、房管处、基建处、工会、信息办、信息化技术中心、附属学校等单位主要负责人。
    学校应急领导小组主要职责:在教育部、市委、市政府及市教育工委统一领导下,全面负责处置学校各类突发公共事件的应急响应行动,下达应急处置工作任务;在预测将要发生和已经发生突发公共事件时,启动突发事件应急预案,并开展应对突发事件的组织指挥;在处理突发公共事件过程中,协调与校外相关部门和单位的关系;当突发事件超出学校处置能力时,依程序向教育部、市教工委及相关部门报送,请求指示与支援;决定信息报送教育部、市教工委及相关部门的标准、内容以及请示上级部门指示、支援等事项;决定对外公布、公开与事件有关信息的口径及发布时间、方式等;部署和总结学校年度突发性公共事件应对工作。
    2.2 学校应急领导小组办公室及主要职责
    学校应急工作领导小组办公室设在两办,党办主任担任办公室主任,校办主任、总务办主任、保卫部部长、学生部部长、研工部部长任副主任。日常工作由两办、总务办、保卫部、学生部、研工部共同承担。
    学校应急领导小组办公室主要职责:履行值守应急、信息汇总、综合协调职能,发挥运转枢纽作用。及时收集和分析相应的数据和工作情况,提出处理各类突发公共事件的指导意见和具体措施报学校应急领导小组;会同各应急处置工作组,及时总结学校处理突发公共事件的经验和教训;督导、检查校内各单位落实突发公共事件应急处理工作的情况;根据突发公共事件的性质提出对有关责任人的责任追究意见报学校应急领导小组。
    2.3 各应急处置工作组组成及主要职责
    依据突发公共事件类别,校应急领导小组下设相应的应急处置工作组。在预测将要发生和已经发生突发公共事件时,在应急处置工作组架构的基础上,根据突发事件的严重程度以及涉及的部门和单位情况,成立由主要校领导或分管校领导、相关部门和单位负责人组成的应急现场指挥部。
    各应急处置工作组(应急现场指挥部)和相关单位应根据工作职责,在应急领导小组和分管校领导的统一指挥下,协调处置或牵头协调处置相关的突发公共事件。各处置工作组(应急现场指挥部)要根据事件发展趋势动态调整事件级别,不断调整应急措施和方案,加大应急处置力度,提高应急处置工作的针对性和时效性。
    (1)社会安全类突发事件应急处置工作组
    组长由分管校领导担任,副组长由学生部部长、研工部部长、保卫部部长担任。工作组成员由两办、学生部、研工部、保卫部、宣传部、统战部、团委、研究生院、教务处、人事处、财务处、离退休处、国际处、教培处、信息化技术中心、校医院等单位主要负责人和各院系党委(党总支)负责人组成。其他相关单位协同配合。工作组办公室设在学生部,日常工作由学生部、研工部承担。
    在预测将要发生和已经发生社会安全类突发事件时,在应急处置工作组架构的基础上,根据突发事件的严重程度以及涉及的部门和单位情况,成立由主要校领导或分管校领导、相关部门和单位负责人组成的应急现场指挥部。
    工作组(应急现场指挥部)主要职责为:统一决策、组织、指挥学校涉及社会安全类突发事件的响应行动;研究确定事件性质、类型和级别,确定与其他类特定事件应急处置预案的联系,下达应急处置任务;及时前往事发现场指挥,督促相关单位开展事件处置工作;研究信息对外发布的口径和时间,上报校应急工作领导小组并组织实施;会同校应急领导小组办公室总结评估应急处置工作。
    (2)公共卫生类突发事件应急处置工作组
    组长由分管校领导担任,副组长由校医院院长、总务办主任、街道办事处主任担任。工作组成员由两办、总务办、校医院、街道、保卫部、学生部、研工部、宣传部、统战部、团委、工会、离退休处、国际处等单位主要负责人组成。其他相关单位协同配合。工作组办公室设校医院,日常工作由校医院、总务办、街道承担。
    在预测将要发生和已经发生公共卫生类突发事件时,在应急处置工作组架构的基础上,根据突发事件的严重程度以及涉及的部门和单位情况,成立由主要校领导或分管校领导、相关部门和单位负责人组成的应急现场指挥部。
    工作组(应急现场指挥部)主要职责为:在政府卫生行政部门指导下,负责学校突发公共卫生事件的紧急处置工作;完善突发公共卫生事件信息监测报告网络,及时收集学校突发公共卫生事件的相关信息,并按规定向有关部门报告情况,提出相关对策和措施,研究请求指示和援助等事项;普及卫生防疫、食品卫生及相关安全知识;指导、组织、协调各单位以及师生员工紧急应对和处置突发公共卫生事件;督促校内各单位落实突发公共事件防控机制;研究对外公布、公开与事件有关信息的口径及发布时间、方式等;会同校应急领导小组办公室总结评估应急处置工作。
    (3)事故灾难类突发事件应急处置工作组
    组长由分管校领导担任,副组长由总务办主任、保卫部部长担任。工作组成员由两办、总务办、街道、保卫部、学生部、研工部、宣传部、统战部、团委、研究生院、教务处、校医院、财务处、实验室处、离退休处、房管处、基建处、国际处等单位主要负责人组成。其他相关单位负责协同配合。工作组办公室设在总务办,日常工作由总务办承担。
    在预测将要发生和已经发生事故灾难类突发事件时,根据突发事件的严重程度以及涉及的部门和单位情况,成立由主要校领导或分管校领导、相关部门和单位负责人组成的应急现场指挥部。
    工作组(应急现场指挥部)主要职责为:统一决策、组织、指挥涉及学校的事故灾难类突发事件的响应行动。指导校内各单位建立健全事故安全的预防预警机制;对事故灾难防范处置工作进行督察、指导,必要时进入现场协调处置,控制事态发展;根据事故灾难情况,提出相关对策和措施,决定是否在一定范围内停课,是否进行人员疏散等应急处理办法;积极配合政府有关职能部门进行应急处置工作;研究向上级和有关政府部门报送信息、请求指示和援助等事项;研究对外公布、公开与事件有关信息的口径及发布时间、方式等;会同校应急领导小组办公室总结评估应急处置工作。
    (4)网络与信息安全类突发事件应急处置工作组
    组长由分管宣传的党委副书记担任,副组长由分管学生工作党委副书记、党办主任、宣传部部长担任。工作组由两办、信息办、宣传部、学生部、研工部、保卫部、信息化技术中心、图书馆等部门负责人组成。其他相关单位协同配合。工作组办公室设在信息办,日常工作由信息办、信息化技术中心承担。
    应急处置工作组主要职责:领导学校网络信息管理和网络宣传教育工作,对有关重大问题做出决策;负责学校网络与信息安全类突发事件的应急处置。应急处置工作包括:通过技术手段对校园网有害信息实施24小时监控;及时处置重大有害信息在校园网上大面积传播,或校园网系统遭受大范围黑客攻击和计算机病毒扩散事件;在校园网遭受境内外严重攻击,遇有极其严重、不可控制的大型安全事件时,及时报告、处置和制止,保证校园网正常稳定运行;协调有关部门开展事件应急处置工作;研究对外公布、公开与事件有关信息的口径及发布时间、方式等;会同校应急领导小组办公室总结评估应急处置工作。
    (5)自然灾害类突发事件应急处置工作组
    组长由分管校领导担任,副组长由校长办公室主任、总务办主任、保卫部部长担任。工作组成员由两办、总务办、街道、保卫部、学生部部长、研工部、宣传部、统战部、团委、研究生院、教务处、校医院、财务处、实验室处、离退休处、房管处、基建处、国际处等单位主要负责人组成。其他相关单位协同配合。工作组办公室设在总务办,日常工作由总务办承担。
    在预测将要发生和已经发生自然灾害类突发事件时,在应急处置工作组架构的基础上,根据突发事件的严重程度以及涉及的部门和单位情况,成立由主要校领导或分管校领导、相关部门和单位负责人组成的应急现场指挥部。
    工作组(应急现场指挥部)主要职责为:统一决策、组织、指挥涉及学校的自然灾害类突发事件的响应行动。指导校内各单位建立健全自然灾害的预防预警机制;对自然灾害防范处置工作进行督察、指导,必要时进入现场协调处置,控制事态发展;根据自然灾害情况,提出相关对策和措施,决定是否在一定范围内停课,是否进行人员疏散等应急处理办法;积极配合政府有关职能部门进行应急处置工作;研究向上级和有关政府部门报送信息、请求指示和援助等事项;研究对外公布、公开与事件有关信息的口径及发布时间、方式等;会同校应急领导小组办公室总结评估应急处置工作。
    (6)考试安全类突发事件应急处置工作组
    组长由分管校领导担任,副组长由教务处处长、研究生院常务副院长、保卫部部长担任,工作组成员由两办、教务处、研究生院、保卫部、学生部、研工部、纪监委、教培处、附中等单位主要负责人组成。其他相关单位协同配合。工作组办公室设在教务处,日常工作由教务处、研究生院承担。
    在预测将要发生和已经发生考试安全类突发事件时,在应急处置工作组架构的基础上,根据突发事件的严重程度以及涉及的部门和单位情况,成立由主要校领导或分管校领导、相关部门和单位负责人组成的应急现场指挥部。
    工作组(应急现场指挥部)主要职责为:协调处理国家统一考试和学校统一考试命题、保密等考试考务工作中引发的突发公共事件;启动相应预案,采取相应处置措施;研究对外公布、公开与事件有关信息的口径及发布时间、方式等;会同校应急领导小组办公室总结评估应急处置工作。
    3 预防与预警机制
    3.1 信息处理机制
    建立畅通的信息传输渠道和严格的信息上报机制,完善快速应急信息系统。
    (1)信息报送原则
    迅速:最先发现发生突发公共事件或接到有关信息的单位和个人应在第一时间内向学校应急领导小组办公室报告(电话:62782015),不得延报。学校应急领导小组办公室应在事件发生后,立即向学校主要领导和主管领导报告,并视事件具体情况立即报告教育部、市教工委和有关部门,最迟不得超过3小时。各应急处置工作组(应急现场指挥部)应立即到位,采取相应处置措施,并保持通讯联络通畅。必要时可预先通知校内广播、电视、网络等媒体作好播报准备,尽最大可能疏散、抢救人员。
    准确:尽可能全面了解突发公共事件的起因、性质等基本情况,并及时以信息形式报告。信息内容要客观翔实,不得主观臆断,不得瞒报、漏报、谎报。
    保密:针对突发公共事件的情况,按照保密工作的各项要求,确保整个事件的信息处理过程不出现失密、泄密情况。电话、传真、计算机网络等信息传送手段必须有严格的保密措施。
    续报:在事件情况发生变化后,应及时续报事件有关变化的情况。
    (2)信息报送机制
    紧急电话报告系统。收到突发公共事件情况报告后,学校应急领导小组办公室按信息报告程序报学校主要领导和分管领导,同时将信息通报相应的应急处置工作组和单位。把校领导作出的处置批示或指示及时传达给有关单位。
    紧急文件报送系统。突发公共事件执行电话报告后,学校应急领导小组办公室应立即书面正式报应急领导小组组长、副组长、办公室主任及副主任,通知相关应急处置工作组和单位,并按照相应预案和领导要求开展工作。重大事件信息,学校应急领导小组办公室根据校领导意见,以信息专报形式报告教育部、市教育工委,并视事件情况和性质,报告相关部门。
    (3)应急信息的主要内容
    l 事件发生的基本情况,包括时间、地点、规模、涉及人员、破坏程度以及人员伤亡情况;
    l 事件发生起因分析、性质判断和影响程度评估;
    l 学校和相关单位已采取的措施;
    l 校内外公众及媒体等各方面的反应;
    l 事态发展状态、处置过程和结果;
    l 需要报送的其他事项。
    3.2 其他工作机制
    (1)在学校应急领导小组统一部署下,各单位应相互支持、相互配合。要细化工作措施,落实人员,明确责任,把各项工作和要求落到实处。
    (2)加强应急反应机制的日常性管理,在实践中不断运用和完善应急处置预案。加强人员培训,开展经常性演练活动,提高队伍理论素质和实践技能,不断提高应对突发公共事件的指挥能力和实战能力。
    (3)做好应对各类突发公共事件的人力、物力和财力方面的储备工作,确保突发公共事件预防、现场控制的应急设施、设备和必要的经费。
    (4)做好信息对外发布工作。严格按照教育部、市教工委和有关部门的规定执行。要区分不同情况,把握信息发布和舆论的主动权。信息发布要全面、客观、准确、及时。学校各类突发公共事件的新闻发布工作由宣传部统一负责。
    4 应急预案启动响应
    4.1 特别重大事件(Ⅰ级)和重大事件(Ⅱ级)应急响应
    特别重大事件(Ⅰ级)和重大事件(Ⅱ级)发生后,学校应急领导小组立即启动相应预案,相关处置工作组立即调动各方面资源和力量进行应急处置工作。学校主要领导担任现场应急处置工作的总指挥,应急领导小组成员和相关处置工作组成员在突发事件现场组织开展工作并直至应急响应结束。应急处置情况应随时向教育部、市教工委和有关部门报告。
    4.2 较大事件(Ⅲ级)应急响应
    较大事件(Ⅲ级)发生后,学校应急领导小组立即启动相应预案,相关处置工作组立即成立应急现场指挥部,统一调动各方面资源和力量进行应急处置工作。学校分管领导担任现场应急处置工作的总指挥,应急现场指挥部成员在突发事件现场组织开展工作并直至应急响应结束。应急处置情况应随时向学校主要领导和上级主管部门报告。若突发公共事件情形发生变化,应视事件性质和发展趋势,及时调整事件应急响应级别。
    4.3 一般事件(Ⅳ级)应急响应
    一般事件(Ⅳ级)发生后,学校应急领导小组应立即启动相应预案。相关处置工作组立即成立应急现场指挥部,统一调动各方面资源和力量进行应急处置工作。应急现场指挥部成员应在突发事件现场组织开展工作直至应急响应结束。应急处置情况应随时向学校领导和上级主管部门报告。若突发公共事件情形发生变化,应视事件性质和发展趋势,及时调整事件应急响应级别。
    5 应急结束机制
    突发公共事件处置工作已基本完成,次生、衍生和事件危害被基本消除,应急处置工作即告结束。
    突发公共事件应急处置工作结束后,应急领导小组将应急处置工作总结上报上级主管部门,经同意后,应急处置工作结束。一般突发公共事件由学校应急领导小组宣布应急结束。较大、重大、特别重大突发公共事件由上级主管部门宣布应急结束。
    突发公共事件处置工作结束后,将情况及时通知参与应急处置的相关部门和单位。必要时,通过校内媒体在校内发布应急结束消息或通过新闻媒体向社会发布应急结束消息。
    6 后期处置
    6.1 善后处置工作
    突发公共事件善后处置工作在教育部、市教工委统一领导下,由学校及相关职能部门负责实施。
    学校相关部门要组织力量全面开展公共突发事件损害核定工作,及时收集、清理和处理污染物,对事件情况、人员补偿、征用物资补偿、重建能力、可利用资源等做出评估,组织社会救助,制定补偿标准和事后恢复计划,并迅速实施。
    6.2 调查和总结
    学校应急领导小组成立公共突发事件原因调查小组,组织专家调查和分析事故发生的原因和发展趋势,预测事故后果,并报上级主管部门。
    学校应急领导小组办公室总结学校处理突发公共事件的经验和教训,评估应急处置工作,制定整改措施,追究责任。
    7 应急保障
    7.1 信息保障
    学校各职能部门、各院系(所)要建立健全并落实突发公共事件信息报送、应急处置等各环节的运行机制,保持通讯方式方法方便快捷,确保信息报送渠道安全畅通。凡达到划定级别的突发公共事件,应向本单位主要领导报告及时处理,同时向主管部门和分管校领导报告。向上级部门报送相关信息归口校应急领导小组。
    7.2 物资保障
    总务办、街道、实验室处、校医院、保卫部等相关单位应建立处置突发公共事件的物资储备,保证物资、器材的完好和可使用性,以应对各种情况的发生。
    7.3 资金保障
    应急资金统一列入学校财政预算。一般情况由各单位、各部门预算资金列支,特殊情况由财务处单独列支,确保突发公共事件应急处置所需经费。
    7.4 人员保障
    各部门、各单位应按照学校的要求组建突发公共事件应急队伍,一旦启动预案,立即投入处置工作。学校应急队伍主要由学生思政教育管理人员、安全保卫人员、医护人员、后勤人员和学生骨干组成。应急队伍应按照突发公共事件具体情况和要求及时调整人员组成,涉及学生参加的应急队伍原则上每年调整一次,以保证应急队伍的健全和稳定。
    8 监督管理
    8.1 宣传教育
    相关单位要充分利用校内广播、电视、校园网等组织开展应急法律法规和预防、避险、自救、自护等应急知识的宣传。积极做好安全教育进课堂工作,努力增强师生员工的防范意识,学习掌握应急基本知识和技能,以适应突发公共事件处置的需要。
    8.2 培训演练
    (1)学校组织各单位处理突发公共事件指挥人员的培训。保卫处、总务办、街道、学生部、研工部、宣传部、研究生院、教务处、校医院、信息化技术中心等承担应急队伍的培训。将突发公共事件预防、应急指挥、综合协调等作为重要内容,以增加应急队伍应对突发公共事件的知识和能力。
    (2)学校视情况组织突发公共事件应急处置的指挥系统模拟演练。总务办、保卫部、街道、校医院定期组织专业应急队伍演练;学生部、研工部和各院系(所)按照上级部门和学校要求组织学生进行相关演练。应急演练包括准备、实施和总结三个阶段。通过应急演练,培养应急队伍,落实岗位责任制,熟悉应急工作的指挥机制、决策、协调和处置程序,识别资源需求,评价应急状态、检验预案的可行性和改进应急预案。
    8.3 责任奖惩
    (1)突发公共事件应急处置工作实行领导负责制和责任追究制。对迟报、谎报、瞒报和漏报突发公共事件重要情况或者应急处置工作中有其他失职、渎职行为的,依法对有关责任人给予行政处分;构成犯罪的,依法追究刑事责任。
    (2)对在突发公共事件应急处置工作中作出突出贡献的先进集体和个人,要给予表彰和奖励。
    8.4 预案管理
    学校突发公共事件应急预案分为《清华大学突发公共事件总体应急预案》和各类专项应急预案。专项应急预案包括《清华大学社会安全类突发事件应急预案》、《清华大学公共卫生类突发事件应急预案》、《清华大学事故灾难类突发事件应急预案》、《清华大学网络与信息安全类突发事件应急预案》、《清华大学自然灾害类突发事件应急预案》和《清华大学考试安全类突发事件应急预案》。
    《清华大学突发公共事件总体应急预案》由校应急领导小组制定和修订,各类专项应急预案由相应的应急处置工作组制定和修订,并报应急领导小组审批。
    本预案由校应急领导小组负责解释与组织实施。
    本预案自发布之日起实施。
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2022: Peking U Students on “Epidemic Prevention and Control” (Draft) and Tsinghua U Alumni Statement

Via Taisu Zhang on Twitter. Translations followed by Chinese language text.

Declaration of some students of Peking University on the prevention and control of the epidemic (draft for comment)

Recently, the implementation of the dynamic zero policy has revealed more and more problems, and even caused many horrible tragedies. As the cradle of democracy and science in China, Peking University has been with the future and destiny of the Chinese nation for more than 100 years. I hope that in view of the current situation, and with the expectation of the future, we, 40-odd students of Peking University, have decided to make our voices heard after discussion, given that it is impossible to hold a university-wide meeting on the relevant topic:

Looking back at the early days of the epidemic, we should acknowledge that the policies implemented by the Party and the government saved the lives of millions of people and preserved the health of millions of people, and that countless grassroots workers devoted their efforts and even sacrificed their lives to these policies, which should be commemorated forever. However, even if the policy itself is correct, if it is not understood and supported by the people, it will be difficult to sustain. Why is the prevention and control policy becoming more and more unpopular? Why do the following situations continue to occur despite the central government’s repeated orders: patients or mothers are denied timely medical treatment because they cannot provide their nucleic acid results, residents and students are forcibly transferred and quarantined without their knowledge, and doors are blocked so that people have nowhere to go or even lose their lives in the event of an accident ……

We believe that the reason for the recurrence of these situations is that without mandatory orders linking epidemic preparedness to the appointment and removal of officials, it is difficult to enforce them seriously. However, once administrative means are used to implement the policy, those who actually implement it will inevitably focus on fulfilling the requirements of their superiors and disregard the actual demands of the people. They will keep raising the bar at every level to ensure that they have a perfect record. Moreover, the authorities have abused their power to control public opinion by blocking and deleting comments on policy. This makes it impossible for the public to express their dissatisfaction with and to criticize specific implementations, or even to call for help in time when they face difficulties. The protests and demonstrations everywhere today are also the inevitable result of such a situation.

Therefore, we hereby call for:

  1. To avoid the abuse of public power, all regional quarantine blockades should be stopped to ensure that all people in communities, villages, units and schools can enter and leave freely;
  2. Abolish technical means to monitor the whereabouts of citizens, such as pass codes and “jiankang bao” cell phone tracking app. Stop considering the spread of the epidemic as the responsibility of certain individuals or institutions. Devote resources to long-term work such as vaccine, drug development and hospital construction;
  3. Implement voluntary nucleic acid testing and voluntary quarantine for undiagnosed and asymptomatic individuals;
  4. Liberalize restrictions on the expression of public opinion and allow suggestions and criticism of specific implementation problems in different regions;
  5. Make truthful disclosures of infection data, including the number of infected people, the death rate, long sequelae rate, to eliminate epidemic panic during the transition.

We hope to stop the mandatory nucleic acid requirement for asymptomatic people with no record of entering or leaving the school, and to cancel the authorization of the Youth Research Center to monitor various public opinion platforms.

One might ask, “Is the above call for a complete standing down? Isn’t that the same as letting the virus run wild? Our answer is that, from a public health perspective, it is impossible to stop the spread of the virus in the country in a short period of time. The most urgent task now is to find a temporary way of coexistence that minimizes the danger of the epidemic while ensuring basic social order and basic economic and livelihood needs. When this has reached a critical point, and there is still no adequate explanation or response, then everyone should do their best to make their voices heard.

And this is our statement.


A statement by some alumni of Tsinghua University

To Our Alma Mater Tsinghua University:

We took note of the assembly of mourning of the students at the Purple Garden Cafeteria of Tsinghua University on the afternoon of November 27, 2022. We salute the students who were there to express their views. We believe that the students stood up for themselves as Chinese people.

We noticed that the students were holding white paper and the slogans were specific. As the students explained, this question was raised by Tsinghua University on October 16, 2022 to “ensure the safety and health of the university’s teaching and research, and to prevent all kinds of safety hazards, it is forbidden to print unapproved matter in the print store on campus.” Students expressed their opposition to this decision by holding up sheets of blank paper. We believe that the students’ objections are fully justified. Healthy public discussion requires free expression, and it is inappropriate for a school to view it as a “safety hazard to its students. Holding a blank sheet of paper without a point of view can lead to attacks and misinterpretation of positions, so students are advised to protect themselves.

We noticed that the teacher in charge of student work was also present. We are aware of the risks that students face in expressing their views. Therefore in the name of the alumni, we hope that teachers will make a clear written commitment on behalf of the university that will not make any accusations against students who participated in this rally. We also and that they will not penalize in subsequent teaching and research work for this and that they will protect the students who participated in the rally from any unreasonable treatment by any unit or institution outside the university, and from any so-called external forces. The students should be protected from any unreasonable treatment by any unit or institution outside the university, and from any accusation that they are working for so-called foreign forces.

We note that the daily lives of students and faculty have been affected by the strict closure measures. As alumni, we do not have the authority to decide for the students and faculty whether or not the administration should be improved, nor do we have the authority to decide for the students and faculty how the administration should be changed. As alumni, we can only hope that the school can make the relevant decisions in a democratic manner, based on the “Notice on Further Optimizing the Prevention and Control Measures of the New Pneumonia Epidemic” issued by the State Council on November 11, 2022, and stop adding covid codes, stop arbitarily changing the rules overnight. We will not allow any “arbitrary made-up” regulations, no more tests and control measures that exceed the requirements of the Notice, and no more intimidating, simple and violent work methods that endanger the psychological health of students.

We note that the work and lives of the school’s logistics and security workers have been affected by the strict lockdown measures. The workers are not directly employed by the school, so the school has a strong legal basis for not being responsible for the placement, compensation, and benefits of the workers. However, we do not believe that this is the kind of social responsibility that is expected of a world-class university. Under sequestration, the rights of workers are less protected than those of staffed faculty and cared-for students. We believe that Tsinghua University should initiate a survey of workers’ living conditions or allow faculty and students to conduct their own surveys and allocate a certain amount of resources to housing workers. To prevent students and faculty from having contact with workers is against the fine tradition of the Chinese Communist Party and is highly inappropriate.

We believe that the students’ spontaneous walk to the entrance of the Ziyouyuan cafeteria today is out of their deep concern for their compatriots and their concern for the

We believe they went there out of a deep concern for our compatriots and a sense of responsibility for our school, society and country. We believe that loving our school and country is not the same as defending our school and country at all times. Contrary to “my school/country is always right,” true love of country and school is expressed as “on the contrary, since I truly love my country and love my school, that is expressed by “I share the happiness of my compatriots, and I share the pain of my compatriots therefore “I want my school/my country to do the right thing. If my school/country are going down the wrong road, then our of a genuine feeling of responsibility, I will want people to abandon their “lying flat” attitude and stand up. It is just because people have that sense of responsibility that the the people can fight for a better life.

We believe that although such a sense of responsibility may conflict with the short-term convenience of the administrators, as long as the administrators do not forget their original intention of serving the people and do not regard the people who truly love the university and the country as their enemy. This conflict can be decently resolved by the administrators’ improving their own standards and democratic demeanor. As alumni, we believe that our alma mater Tsinghua University will make the right choice at this critical moment.

End.

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|北京大学部分学生关于疫情防控问题的宣言(征求意见稿)

近日来,动态清零政策在执行过程中,暴露出越来越多的问题,甚至造成了许多骇 人听闻的悲剧。而民众自发的抗议与呼声,又一再被压制,得不到充分的回应,所 有良知尚存的中华儿女,面对此情此景,已再无置若罔闻的可能,北京大学作为中 国民主与科学的摇篮,在百余年的历史中,素来与中华民族的前途及命运同在。希 望针对目前的形势,带着对未来的期待,在无法召开相关主题的全校学生会议的条 件下,我们四十余名北大同学经讨论后决定,先发出自己的声音:

回望疫情初期,应该承认,党和政府执行的政策,一度挽救了数以百万计人民的生 命,维护了千万人民的健康,无数基层工作者为之付出了巨大的心血,甚至牺牲了 生命,这是我们要永远纪念的。然而,即便政策本身是正确的,如果得不到人民的 理解与支持,它也是难以持续推行的。防控政策为什么会越来越不得人心?为什么 口 中央三令五申之后,下列情形仍不断出现:患者或产妇因为不能提供核酸结果因而 得不到及时医救、居民与学生在不知情的状况下被强制转运与隔离、封门堵路使得 (回 意外发生时人们无处逃生甚至失去生命……

我们认为,上述种种情况不断重演的原因在于,如果不采取强制性的命令,将防疫 情况与官员的任免挂钩,就难以有人去认真执行。然而,一旦使用行政手段来推 行实际执行者不免会只顾完成上级要求,不顾人民实际诉求,层层加码,以保万 无一失,许许多多荒诞的闹剧与悲剧,就是因此而发生的,随着病毒对生命与健康 OM 的威胁在下降,政策的负面影响愈发突出,甚至超过了疫情本身对社会的伤害。同 时有关部门滥用舆论管控权力,只堵不疏,一删了之,使得群众无法表达对具体 执行的不满与批评,甚至在面对困境时无法及时呼救。今日各地此起彼伏的抗议与 示威,也是在此情形下必然会发生的结果。

因此,我们在此呼吁:

1、为避免公权力的滥用,应停止一切区域性封锁行为,保证各社区、乡村、单位、学校内全部人员能够自由出入、流动;

2、取消通行码、健康宝等监控公民个人行踪的技术手段,不再将疫情的扩散视作 某些个人或机构的责任,并将资源投入到疫苗、药品研发和医院建设等长效性工作 中;

3、对于未确诊以及无症状人员,实行自愿核酸检测,自愿隔离的政策;

4、放开舆论管控,允许对各地具体执行中的问题进行建议与批评:

5、如实公开感染数据,包括感染人数,致死率、长后遗症率,消除对疫情过渡恐

慌的情绪;倡导非重症患者自行居家隔离、服药治疗; 落实到校园之内,我们希望,全面停用差别对待学生与教职工的出入校审批制家 停止对无症状,无出入校记录人员的强制性核酸要求;取消青年研究中心监控各種 内舆论平台的权力。

或许有人会问,以上的呼声,是否等于完全销平?是否等于放任病毒肆虐?我们的 答复是,从公共卫生的角度,在短时间内于国内彻底阻断病毒的传播,本就是无法 完成的任务。现在的当务之急,是探索一条在保证基本社会秩序、保证基本的经济 与民生需求的基础上,尽量降低疫情危害性的暂时共存之路。而不是不惜一切代价 去追求一个不可实现的目标——毕竟这个代价本身,也是由人民在承受,当这样的 |承受已达到一个临界点,却依然得不到充分的解释与回应时,那么所有人都应该尽 力发出自己的声音。

而这,就是我们的声音了。


母校清华大学:

我们注意到了2022年11月27日下午华大学紫园食堂门解同学们的哀痛会 们向现场属于表达自己观点的同学们表示敬意。我们相信,再学们是出于身为中国人 任慈而站出来的。

我们注意到,现场的同学们手持白纸,而丰具体的口号。经在校同学解释,這問 为清华大学留于2022年10月16日以“确保学校教学科研安全健定、杜各类安全隐 作出瓶定,禁止校内打印店印刷未经被验的內容,而再学们以手白纸的方式表达对这 叔定的反对。我们认为,同学们的反对是完全合理的。健康的公共讨论必须以自由的表 为前提,而学校将自己的学生视为“安全隐患”,也是不适当的。手持白纸没有观点可能 祝人攻击既曲解立场,因此建议学弟学妹保护好自己

我们注意到,负责学生工作的老师也在现场。我们深知同学们表达观点所面临的 险,因此我们以校友的名义,希望学工老师可以代表学校作出明确的书面承诺,对于参 这一集会的同学不追究任何责任,在后续的教学研究工作中也不可以此为由制造障碍, 要保护参与集会的同学免受校外一切单位或机关的不合理对待,免受所谓填外勢力非 的指责。

我们注意到,在严格的封控措施之下,学校师生的日常生活受到了影响。作为 友,我们无权誉在校师生决定是否应该改进管理方式,也无权替在校师生决定该如何改 管理方式。作为校友,我们仅仅希望,学校能够以民主的方式作出相关决策,以国务 2022年11月11日发布的《关于进一步优化新冠肺炎疫情防控措施 科学精准做好防控工作 的通知》为准,杜绝加码,杜绝“拍脑门“朝令夕改”式的规定,杜绝超过《通知》要求的大 测和封控措施,杜绝包含恐吓意味的、简单粗暴的、危害同学心理健康的工作方式。

我们注意到,在严格的封控措施之下,学校内后勤与安保工人的工作和生活受到了 影响。工人们并不直接受雇于学校,因此学校有充足的法理依据不必对工人们的安置、椒 偿和福利问题负责。但我们认为,这不是一所世界一流大学所应有的社会责任感。在封持 措施之下,工人们的权利比起拥/有编制的教师和受到照顾的学生更难以得到保障。我们认 为,清华大学应当发起对工人生活情况的调查,或者允许师生自发调查,并分配一定的 源用以安置工人。阻止师生与工人接触,违背了中国共产党的优良传统,是极不适当的。

我们认为,同学们今天自发走到紫荆园食堂门口,正是出于对同胞的深深关切,对

学校、对社会、对国家的责任感。我们相信,爱校爱国不等于时时刻刻维护学校和国家的 一切做法。与“我的学校/国家做得一定对”相反,真正的爱国爱校,表现为“我要乐同胞之所 乐、痛同胞之所痛,以及“我要让我的学校/国家做正确的事。如果学校/国家走在不正确 的道路上,那么只有真正的责任感才会驱使人们放弃”躺平”而站起来。正是因为有这种责 任感,人民才会为更好的生活去奋斗。

我们相信,这样的责任感可能会与管理者短期的方便相冲突,但只要管理者不忘为 人民服务的初心,不将真正爱校爱国的群众视为敌人,这种冲突就一定可以通过管理者提 升自身水平,发扬民主风度而获得体面的解决。作为校友,我们相信母校清华大学在这一 关键时刻一定会作出正确的选择。 此致

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