Summary: Competition on the Pacific Ocean: Problems in Maritime Strategy for Modern China , an October 1998 book by Captain Wu Chunguang of the PLA Navy Political Work Research Institute argues that the greatest threat to China is not a military invasion but the rapid rise of China’s population, its dwindling resources, and the ongoing destruction of its environment. Wu insists that China’s oceanic territory, which is fully one-third as large as China’s land territory, will be vital to assuring China’s future. Wu examines in considerable detail China’s territorial disputes with the Philippines and Vietnam in the South China Sea and with India along its Tibetan frontier. He also comments on the military balance between the two Koreas and the dangers of a post reunification surge of Korean nationalism. Wu sees a bright future for relations between the United States and China especially since the two countries, neighbors separated by a vast ocean, can have no territorial dispute. This four hundred page book, part of the China Problems Series with a foreword by Liu Ji, retiring Vice President of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, was published in October 1998.
Competition on the Pacific Ocean: Problems in Maritime Strategy for Modern China
by Captain Wu Chunguang 太平洋上的较量：当代中国的海洋战略问题
by Wu Chunguang [吴纯光], Captain, PLA Navy. Published by Today‘s China Publishing House Jinri Zhongguo Chubanshe 今日中国出版社. First printing in October 1998 as part of the China Problems Series 中国问题报告 . Captain Wu is a researcher in the Political Work Research Institute of the PLA Navy. Wus book was apparently scheduled for publication in early 1997. The foreword is by Liu Ji, recently retired Vice President of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The first was 15,000 copies. Liu Jis preface is dated January 1997, the editors preface in March 1997, but the first printing was in October 1998.
China’s Ocean Lands and Saving Environment, Resources
Captain Wu in his analysis of China’s environmental, water and agricultural problems discusses problems but not solutions. Interestingly, Wu refers in his discussion of China’s environmental problems to some studies done by foreign environmentalists including the Worldwatch Institute. Many other Chinese experts, pointing to the same problems, are not as pessimistic as Wu appears to be on prospects for their solution. Some Chinese experts suggest that higher water prices to encourage conservation (in Beijing the price of water has doubled to 1 RMB per ton since late 1997 but is still one-fifth the 5 RMB per ton real price of water) and changing the property system would help solve these problems. Giving farmers actual ownership of the land (instead of the present long-term 30 year lease) would encourage better stewardship of the land and higher investment in agriculture that would in turn lead to higher productivity and less environmental deterioration. For more detailed information on these points see the reports on water and sustainable development in agriculture on the late 1990s U.S. Embassy Beijing web page now preserved on the Internet Archive.
A summary translation of Competition on the Pacific Ocean follows. Page numbers refer to the first edition published by Today’s China Publishing House.
Summary Translation of Competition on the Pacific Ocean: Problems in Maritime Strategy for Modern China by Captain Wu Chunguang
Few Chinese Realize the Size and Importance of China’s Maritime Territories
Few of China’s 1.2 billion people are aware that China has a maritime territory of 3 million square kilometers in addition to its land territory of 9.6 million square kilometers. Throughout history, sea power has played a prime role in the rise and fall of nations. From the 5th through 16th centuries, Chinese traders opened sea routes to India and even to the coast of Africa simultaneous to the famed Silk Road. The maritime competition of Italy, Spain, Portugal and England during the 15th 18th centuries makes this point very well. For 1500 years, philosophers have said, He who controls the sea, controls all. The importance of the maritime frontier became even more important as many countries, starting with the Continental Shelf Proclamation of President Truman, made claims to the continental shelf adjacent to their territories. Since the UN Law of the Sea Convention defines an island as an area not covered at high tide, Japan spent 30 billion yen to build up two islands 1200 kilometers south of Tokyo. Once the islands were saved from the tides, Japan could claim a vast maritime territory of 430,00 square kilometers extending 200 nautical miles around the islands. (p. 8)
Nations that Look to the Sea Grow Stronger
Chinese has a long maritime tradition. The little boats that Columbus sailed in to America in 1492 cannot compare with the Dragon Ships that carried the Ming explorer Zheng He to the shores of East Africa in 1405. China has a population of 1.2 billion people but only one-quarter the world average per capita arable land. As China exploits its land resources it must not forget its undersea territory of 300,000 square kilometers. Nations that confidently go to sea get stronger. Those that ignore or avoid the sea grow weaker. China has to support 22 percent of the worlds population on 7 percent of its arable land. [Note: The official figure for China’s arable land was revised upwards by 40 percent during 1998 in order to correct unreliable statistical data. China’s arable land now comes to about 10 percent of the world’s arable land. See the report “PRC Arable Land Jumps Forty Percent” for more information. End note.] China’s population in the middle of the 21st Century is expected to reach 1.6 billion people! China now produces 5 million tons of seafood products that is 60 percent of all the aquaculture production of China. China’s deep sea fishing fleet has grown very rapidly recently. China has many offshore oil and gas resources.
International Competition for Resources Growing
As the population of the world continues to grow, the competition for resources is becoming more and more apparent. Population growth is especially rapid in the developing countries. Water is a critical constraint. Humanity’s fresh water use has grown 35 times over the past three centuries but fresh water comprises only two percent of the worlds water. The drying up of rivers and wetlands because too much water was taken for irrigation has already caused environmental disasters. Forty-three countries are water short. In the year 2000, 1.8 billion people will be able to use less that 50 liters of water daily and 500 million will not have adequate drinking water (p. 25). Disputes over water are likely to become more acute. Out of the worlds 200 river basins, 148 run through two counties and 52 are shared by between three and ten countries (p. 26).
The energy supply situation will continue to deteriorate. Energy imports will continue to grow. Economic chaos in the old USSR has reduced its capacity to produce oil so oil shortages are becoming a matter of growing concern. China now imports about 800,000 barrels of oil daily. If the rapid increases of today continue, by the year 2015 China will import 8 million barrels per day just as much as the United States is expected to import that year. [p. 26]
Resources From China’s Undersea Territories Will Be Crucial
China, owing to its 1.2 billion population, will face severe resource shortages as it continues its development. How can China continue to develop without destroying its environment? Resources from China’s undersea territory will be crucial. China’s arable land is decreasing and the land that remains is deteriorating in quality. Desertification, losses to erosion and flooding reduce China’s capacity to produce food. If China’s population continues to increase by 15 million per year then it fifty years China will be just like Japan it will need to import two-thirds of its food. But this will not be possible because the world food market could not supply such a vast amount of food.
The Threat Is Not Invasion But Environment and Resources
The greatest threat to China in the future is not a military invasion but the rapid increase of its population, the exhaustion of its resources, the damage to its ecological balance and environmental pollution. These problems all translate into enormous economic and political pressures. (p. 31) China’s water resources are unevenly distributed: 70 percent is south of the Huanghe (Yellow River) yet more than half of the arable land is in northern China. China’s farmers make do with 30 percent under their requirements and 80 million rural farmers have difficulty getting enough water to drink. A Worldwatch Institute report has called the drying up of the Huanghe River the clearest omen of the exhaustion of China’s water resources. (p. 32) The Yellow River ran dry for the first time in history in 1972 when its flow was interrupted for fifteen days. In 1997 the Yellow River stopped flowing for 266 days.
China Has Only One-Third of the World’s Average Per Capita Resources
China’s urban population has already reached 400 million people. Thirty-four Chinese cities have a population of one million or more and 397 others have a population between 500,000 and one million. Of 600 major cities throughout China, 300 have inadequate supplies of water and 110 suffer a serious water shortage. According to reports, Chinese cities are short 15 million tons of water each year. In many cities, running water only runs at night and water must be fetched over long distances. Water shortages cause an annual loss to industry of 200 billion RMB. As China’s population grows its resources measured on a per capita basis shrink Overcutting and inappropriate use has greatly reduced Chinese forest resources and damaged its grasslands. China has large mineral reserves but still only one-third the world average when calculated on a per capita basis.
Chinese mineral resources compared to world mineral resources on a per capita basis are quite low: 13 percent of the oil reserves, 34 percent of the iron, 24 percent of the copper, 14 percent of the aluminum, and 35 percent of the lead. Only coal reserves, at 99% of the world per capita average, are at a normal level. China will have great difficulty meeting its needs for mineral resources in the coming years.(pp. 34-35)
China’s Implementation of the Law of the Sea Convention
Chairman Mao Zedong said, “Imperialist invasions of China have mostly come from the sea. We must understand that in order to resist the invasions of foreign imperialists, we need to have a strong navy!” President Jiang Zemin signed the ratification document for the UN Law of the Sea Convention on May 15, 1996 signifying the growing importance of the oceans for the Chinese people. (p. 43) In 1993 the State Council approved the Temporary Regulations for the State Marine Areas 国家海域使用管理暂行性规定 that divides China’s oceanic territory into 960 sections, approved the use of 570,000 mu (38,000 hectares). These regulations resulted in the collection of 1.57 million RMB for the use of these state ocean territories. (p. 45) Since 1972, China has established 15 national and 46 local oceanic nature preserves. At the end of 1996, China had 2200 people working in the ocean management department 海洋管理部门 for national and local government using 160 ships. During the 1980s China developed its coast guard and sent its navy to patrol in the southern Pacific.
Maritime Trade: Beware U.S. Hegemonic Ambitions
With the coming of the industrial revolution, the sea became an even more important avenue for world trade. Control of the sea by the navies of Holland, Spain, and England played a large role in the economic rise and fall of those countries. During the first World War I the U.S. had already become the greatest military power but it did not bring its great potential into play in that war. After that war, the U.S. did not try to take a predominant role. The clever Americans realized that the Europeans hadn‘t finished destroying each other in murderous wars. Since the Europeans had not yet exhausted their power, they were not yet ready to comply with the American plans for its own world order. The so-called Free Trade championed by the United States has always served the interests of the developed countries and hurt the interests of the developing countries. America understand how economics served their hegemonic purposes so its set up the IMF, the World Bank and other institutions at the close of the Second World War [pp. 62 65]. The same behavior can be seen today in the U.S. insistence that China enter the WTO as a developed country. U.S. Secretary of Commerce Brown said, The U.S. not only want to get into the China market, it wants to win the China market. China cannot accept this. (p. 68)
China continues its economic opening to the world. President Jiang announced large reductions in Chinese tariffs at a conference in Osaka in November 1995. During the Fifteenth Congress of the Communist Party of China in Fall 1997, China announced a cut in its average tariff from 23 percent to 17 percent. [p. 68 69]
Why does China want to enter the WTO? In short because the WTO is a sort of economic United Nations with trade rules, rules for trade negotiations, and a mechanism for settling international trade disputes. The WTO has a great deal of authority in international trade matters.
Smuggling
Smuggling has a long history in China. Smuggling of gold, cultural artifacts and tobacco are major areas of smuggling into and out of China. Gold mining and trading has been a state monopoly since the founding of the PRC in 1949. Police regularly arrest gold smugglers.
Smuggling of Works of Art and Cultural Artifacts
Cultural artifacts are often smuggled out of China. Some cultural treasures are looted from tombs. Many museums, including the National Palace Museum in Beijing, have been robbed of cultural treasures since the early 1990s. The Singapore magazine Collector wrote recently, There has never been a time when such a rich variety of Chinese art objects has been available!
Cigarette Smuggling
Cigarette smuggling costs the Chinese State Treasury many billions of RMB each year. China has 255 million people addicted to cigarettes. State revenues from cigarette taxes rose from 9.76 billion RMB in 1982, to 27 billion RMB in 1990 to 34.69 billion RMB in 1992. Since 1987 the tobacco industry has brought more money into the State Treasury than any other industry coming to 8 percent of total PRC tax revenues. (p. 75) U.S. tobacco companies with Chinese joint venture partners in 1992 after China yielded to a U.S. threat of sanctions and opened up its market. Since then tobacco advertisements have seduced many young Chinese to a tobacco addiction. [pp. 77-79] In the year 2015, two million China Mainlanders will die from their tobacco addiction， three times the number of Americans who have died in all the wars of the 20th. Century. (p. 79)
Drugs
More drugs are sold in the U.S. than in any other country. One-fifth of the population is addicted to some kind of drug. Some drugs are smuggled from the Golden Triangle area of Southeast Asia, into China and then out through Hong Kong. The drugs are then shipped onwards to Europe and the United States. Drug sellers in the countries around China use transportation links in China to move their goods onwards。 This is a very serious challenge to the Chinese police.
CD Smuggling
The VCD （video compact disk) craze seems to be dying down now, but there has been no drop-off in CD smuggling. CD smuggling is getting much bigger. From January June 1998, Chinese customs confiscated 5.39 million CDs equal to the number confiscated during all of 1997. In July 1998, Customs authorities in Hainan investigated the Aoqiao Co. of Guangdong Province which had applied to import 20 tons of plastic waste. Customs discovered 1540 crates containing a total of 1.48 million CDs. Since the cost of producing a CD in Hong Kong and Macao is just 1.7 RMB and the price within China is 10 RMB, smugglers can earn a big profit. Chinese customs discovered that 90 percent of smuggled CD are pirate and 17 percent are pornographic. A nationwide sweep from December 1997 to March 1998 netted 6.52 million pirate CDs. [pp. 82-86]
The Asian Economic Crisis may well cost the world economy USD one trillion. The economic take-off of Japan and then the four small dragons greatly increased regional economic integration as well as U.S. economic interests in the region. The people of Asia lost USD300 million in purchasing power from the Asian economic crisis said the Malaysian Prime Minister. Now that the Cold War is over, the United States defines its interests in economic terms. Suffering from increased Asian competition, the U.S. took advantage of the Asian economic crisis. The Malaysian Prime Minister called those who take market liberalization as some kind of golden rule just a group of robbers serving the financial strategy of the United States. The only aim of the U.S. International Monetary Fund [sic, p. 105] is to protect U.S. economic interests.
Realignments
The economic weakening of the former USSR all had important economic effects on Western Europe, Japan, southern China and Southeast Asia. During the 1980s, Japan faced with increasing trade friction with the U.S. and Europe, traded increasingly with Asia. In 1992, Japanese imports from Asia exceeded imports from the United States for the first time. As the world moves toward multipolarity, Asia is becoming more prosperous as denser networks of bilateral and multilateral relations develop.
Yet Asian integration is slow for a number of reasons [pp. 160 120]:
The area is vast, containing half of humanity
Japan plays off the U.S. and Europe, but memories of World War II make Asian counties reluctant to develop closer ties with Japan. These Asian countries dont want America to control them either, but want America to counterbalance Japan. Asia is important to the United States, so it will not allow Japan to establish hegemony in the region.
Many problems limit cooperation. Inadequate communications and transportation networks. Great differences between the economic, monetary, legal and technical infrastructures of the various countries.
Differences between the interests of the developed and the developing countries in the region.
Asia lacks a collective security system. Europe has a regional European Security Council. Will this kind of multilateral security system spread to other regions?
During the Cold War the United States was the police force of the Pacific Ocean. With the end of the Cold War the U.S. began to pay increased attention to Asia. Although President Clinton took a hard line on China issues during the 1992 Presidential Election, his first visit abroad as President was not to Europe but to Asia. The Presidents advisors, mindful of China’s great economic potential, urged him to move towards engagement and away from isolation in his China policy. Clinton proposed increased regional economic cooperation founded upon APEC in opposition to the Malaysian proposal for an Asian Economic Forum. Clinton in the political realm urged increased Western-style democracy and human rights. [pp. 123 126]
With End of Cold War, The U.S. Searches for an Adversary
With the end of the Cold War, America had lost its adversary and so was in search of a new one. American Cold War analysts and munitions manufacturers faced a crisis with large cuts in U.S. military spending during the 1980s. The U.S. made detailed studies to help decide how its military should be organized and prepared for the next century. These were the Four Year Defense Study Report and the Joint Concept for the Year 2010 [Note: titles of the two reports are re-translated from the Chinese. End note]. [pp. 126 131]. Analysis of 1998 U.S. military budget on pp. 132 136.
Why Does the U.S. View Chinese Economic Development as a Threat?
The U.S. Seventh Fleet, headquartered in Hawaii, is the largest fleet in the U.S. Navy with about two-thirds of its combat capability. We can only admire the foresight and brilliance of the U.S. Navy. But what we have trouble understanding is why do American strategists and scholars see the economic development of other countries as a threat, anticipate that these countries will become a future adversary and so come up with ways to contain these countries? Shouldn’t those countries and regions which the American strategists will nominate as adversaries or potential adversaries learn from the U.S. military we should be prepared to win to big wars in different areas at once and learn to feel threatened today? As the old Chinese saying goes, If people aren’t concerned about a faraway danger, they will certainly be plagued by a nearby one. Shouldn’t those countries and regions which have had the great good fortune to be nominated by a Superpower as an adversary or a potential adversary learn from the way that American strategists think? Shouldn’t these countries think about how they will confront powers trying to impose themselves militarily so as to defend their own interests? [p. 139]
Japan: Increasingly Independent of US and the Danger of Japanese Militarism
Japan’s ambition is to build an Asian economic system built around Japan and for Japan to become a great political power in the world. Although its relationship with the U.S. is the foundation of Japanese foreign policy, Japan resists U.S. attempts to extend a free trade zone to Asia. Japan is increasingly independent in its foreign policy and dares to say No to the United States from time to time. Japans Self-Defense Force goes beyond the needs of Japanese security. There are signs of increased Japanese militarism including people spreading the idea that China is a threat to Japan since the early 1990s. The Chinese people can never forget the crimes of Japanese militarists in China during the Second World War including the massacre of 300,000 people at Nanjing and the deaths of 35 million Chinese soldiers and civilians. [pp. 140 155]
Former USSR: In Danger of Fragmentation, U.S. Fears Russian Recovery
With the dissolution of the old Soviet Union, the problems of Russia and other countries of the former Soviet Union seem to have been forgotten by the world. The U.S. and the European countries provided large amounts of assistance money to Russia to promote the economic recovery of Russia. Yet the Americans and the Europeans in fact do not want the Russian economy to become strong. The U.S. still sees Russia as a potential adversary. Economic and political conditions are attached to the assistance. Moreover, promised assistance doesn’t arrive. In 1992 the U.S. and Europe promised Russia USD24 billion but only USD12 billion had arrived by the start of 1993. Russia combines the characteristics of both a developed and an undeveloped country. In some sense it belongs to Europe; in another sense it belongs to Asia. Within the Russian Federation there are 20 areas which have the potential to split off just like Chechen. Only the Russian people can solve the problems that confront Russia. [pp. 155 164]
The Asian Triangles of China, U.S., Russia, and Japan
East Asian politics can be conceived as a series of overlapping triangles: China-U.S.-Russia, China-U.S. Japan, and U.S. Russia – Japan
China U.S. Russia
Some Americans and especially right wing politicians in the U.S. talk about a Chinese threat to the United States. The U.S. Presidents Council of Economic Advisors estimate that if China’s economic growth holds steady at 8 percent, its GDP will exceed that of the United States in 2013. Liu Ji, Vice President of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, says that the United States is the country most prone to errors: it became a great power in the face of the Soviet adversary and now with that adversary gone, it has lost its way. [p. 171]
Why Were the U.S. and China Enemies for a Generation?
When the PRC was established in 1949, the top China scholars of the U.S. urged the State Department to recognize China. However the outbreak of the Korean War and McCarthyism made that impossible. When General McArthur’s spokesman said that the Yalu River was not the border with China and so not the limit of the U.S. advance and U.S. planes bombed targets in northeastern China, China fought the U.S. for three years. This American error inflamed the nationalist feelings of the Chinese people against America so that the entire nation came to see America as the enemy. The Korean War created animosity between the two countries that lasted a generation. [pp. 172-173]
China and the United States can be considered as neighbors separated by a great ocean. This distance means that there can be no territorial disputes between them is itself a good foundation for friendship. The two countries had a strong alliance against Japan during the Second World War. Since President Nixon’s visit to China in 1972, a strong foundation for Sino-American Friendship has been laid.
China’s growing prosperity is no threat to the United States. Is the prosperity of Europe or Japan a threat to the United States? If 10 percent of China’s population became prosperous enough to travel abroad, wouldn’t that be a stimulus to the economies of Europe and the United States? [pp. 169 181]
Russia sees the eastward expansion of NATO as a potential military threat. In February, 1997 Russia announced that if it were threatened by conventional weapons it could not exclude the first use of nuclear weapons in response. [p. 186]
U.S. support to the Philippines in the East Spratlys (p. 199) in January 1995 cast a shadow on U.S. China relations.
Russia-Japan
Russia -Japan relations have improved over the past several years. The Russian government has focused more attention upon East Asia and is particularly interested in strengthening its relatively weak ties with Japan. Russia, now in need of much foreign investment, want to encourage Japanese investment in Russia. Russia wants to improve relations with Japan lest the U.S. – Japan Security Treaty become aimed at Russia. Straightening relations with Japan is an important part of its strategy of weakening the U.S. political influence in the East Asian region. [p. 203].
Territorial Disputes Threaten Chinese Security
The South Spratleys
The Chinese claim to South Spratleys in the South China Sea goes back to maritime expeditions mounted by Emperor Wu of the Han in the second century BC as well as subsequent Chinese activities in this area during the Tang and Song dynasties one thousand years ago. In 1802 when the western powers surveyed these islands, they found only Chinese fishermen living there. The South Spratleys [Nansha Qundao] comprise 230 islands and an ocean area of 800,000 square kilometers. This amounts to one-third of China’s southern ocean territory. The United States has proclaimed that it takes no position in the Spratleys dispute. It long ignored the region but in recent years it has often come to implicitly supporting countries with a territorial dispute with China in order to play the role of a counterweight to China. [p. 218-224]
The Diaoyutai Dispute
These islands [Translator’s Note: Also known as Senkakus Islands. End note] and Taiwan are part of the same geological formation. The Chinese claim is based on the Continental Shelf Treaty that went into force in 1964 and Section 76 of the Law of the Sea Convention passed by the United Nations in 1982. Some Japanese experts believe that there are rich petroleum resources in the Okinawa/ Diaoyutai/Senkakus region. The United States occupied these islands after World War II but signed an agreement in 1971 with Japan to return the exercise of sovereignty over these islands along with Okinawa to Japan. [p. 224-229]
The China-India Border Dispute
In May 1998 India, heedless of international opinion, conducted five nuclear tests. The Indian Prime Minister in his letter to President Clinton about the nuclear tests defended India’s actions saying, India borders on an avowed nuclear power that attacked India militarily in 1962. The Indian Defense Minister said, China is the greatest threat to India. India long occupied 90,000 square kilometers of Chinese territory south of the McMahon line. After the Tibetan feudal leaders incited a rebellion in March 1959, India demanded that China accept this occupation of Chinese territory. In a 1962 conflict started by Indian attacks on Chinese forces, Chinese soldiers counterattacked and proclaimed a cease-fire on November 21, 1962. Indo-Chinese relations have since improved and discussions on the territorial dispute are underway. Yet the winner thus far is India, which still controls 90,000 square kilometers of Chinese territory. [p. 230 239]
Three Questions That Affect Security in the Asia Pacific Region
Powder Keg on the Korean Peninsula
The U.S. and the Soviet Union set up their client states the Republic of Korea (May 1948) and the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (September 1948) on the Korean Peninsula dividing the peninsula at the 38Th. parallel. In the atmosphere of the Cold War a civil war broke out between North and South Korea on June 25, 1950. The UN Security Council, in the absence of the USSR, branded North Korea as the aggressor. The U.S. proclaimed that its involvement in the war on June 27. On September 15, U.S. forces reached the Sino-Korean border. In October Chinese volunteers crossed the Yalu. During the Korean War, Chinese soldiers smashed the plot to extend the war beyond the Yalu River into China and to murder the newborn Peoples Republic of China. [p. 244]. As the Cold War faded during the 1980s, U.S. pressure on the two Koreas relaxed and the north and the south both proclaimed their determination to achieve Korean reunification. [pp. 244-245]
After Kim Il Sung died in July 1994, the DPRK internal situation became less stable. In February 1997, the General Secretary of the DPRK Workers Party Huang Jongyop took advantage of a trip to Beijing to request political asylum at the ROK Embassy. The International Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies announced that the DPRK is seriously short of food. Rations average just 100 grams per day per person. In 1997 the DPRK was 1.50 million tons short of grain and so only had enough to feed three-quarters of its 22 million people. The ROK and international society offered assistance, yet the DPRK response was not enthusiastic. The DPRK attached conditions to external assistance. Food shortages affect the livelihood of the people and can result in internal disorders and mass migrations, so neighboring countries are also seriously affected. [pp. 245 246]
The Korean problem is an historical problem that cannot be solved quickly.
Korea: Hotbed of Emotional Nationalism
Korea industrialized very rapidly. It has the ambition to achieve an independent military strength that Japan and the United States must respect. Korea has an offensive-defense strategy that aims to retain the initiative to counterattack any aggressor in order to destroy their rear area supplies and reserves. Korea is an island country that is culturally, ethnically and linguistically highly homogeneous. The extremely emotional nationalism of the Koreans has grown apace with their economic development. Some Korean nationalists look back on the ancient history of the Korean people and hope to appropriate parts of Chinese territory for an expanded Korea. A September 6, 1998 issue of the Korea News [Hanguo Ribao in Chinese Mandarin pronunciation] called on Koreans to get back the ancient lands of their ancestors in China. The South Korean scholar Zheng Dajun [Chinese pronunciation. STC:6774 1129 0971] commented, The homogeneity of Korean society favors the rise of narrow nationalism [偏激民族主义]. Nationalism is the pride of a people in belonging to a nation. Korea is a pure national state and so has ideal conditions for producing nationalistic pride. In addition the uniqueness of the Korean language makes it even hard to restrain narrow nationalism. The Korean language is essentially used only in North and South Korea and most Koreans do not understand any other language. They never come in contact with foreign publications so that have no way of realizing the ignorance and irrationality of narrow Korean nationalism. The Koreans have a cultural theory that puts the national above all else that is founded on the homogeneity of Korean society and its isolation. The real test of Korean nationalism is still in the future. It is now constrained by enmity with North Korea. But after unification when Korea becomes a richer and more powerful country, it is hard to say what will happen. [pp. 249 250]
Taiwan
Although Taiwan is an internal Chinese problem, the intervention of hegemonists in Chinese affairs and the use of Taiwan as an element in a strategy of China’s opponents to contain China have made it a strategic problem. Economic relations between Taiwan and mainland China have developed considerably since November 1987. Taiwanese investment grew rapidly and some talked about the great importance of international Chinese economic networks. The United States during the 1950s and 1960s saw Taiwan as an unsinkable aircraft carrier in which to base its East Asian military operations. [pp. 250 261]
Indian Nuclear Tests
The May 1998 nuclear tests by India, which has refused to sign the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty casts a dark nuclear shadow over all of humanity. The American scientist Carl Sagan warned in the early 1980s that a nuclear war could threaten all humanity with a nuclear winter. As the number of nuclear countries increases, the number of limited wars that might go nuclear in an instant cannot fail to increase. Most worrisome is the number of countries in unstable regions that are trying to become nuclear powers. All the states trying to get nuclear weapons want to use them to impress or to attack enemies. But owing to the weight of international opinion, the efforts of these countries to get nuclear weapons are conducted in secret. [p. 262-273]
Comparing Naval Strength in the Pacific
Historical background [pp. 274 284]. The United States has 80,000 troops stationed in Japan and Korea. In Japan the U.S. has two important naval bases. The Russian Pacific Fleet has sent out patrols to show the flag and to monitor U.S. naval activity.
The Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force budget climbed from 34.3 billion yen in 1991 to 55.4 billion yen in 1996. Although Japan is capable of building medium and large aircraft carriers, it has thus far built only small ones. The Japanese force aims to ensure maritime security on sea lanes within one thousand nautical miles of Japanese shores.[pp. 291 295]
The ROK Navy has 60,000 sailors and 44 attack ships. The ROK plans to add 10 12 French-built T-209 conventional submarines to its fleet as well as ten ROK-built guided missile cruisers by the Year 2000. ROK Japan military cooperation has increased greatly since the early 1990s.[pp. 299 – 301]
The DPRK Navy is composed of ships designed and built in the late 1940s with the help of Soviet experts. Since the early 1970s the DPRK has built its own escort vessels and submarines. The DPRK Navy has 41,500 sailors and 40,000 reserves. In time of war its mission is to disrupt enemy maritime communication lines, land behind enemy lines for reconnaissance and sabotage, destroy coastal facilities, maintain a good order of battle along the coast and to protect naval bases. Although the south is economically stronger than the south, it is hard to tell which side is stronger at sea. Foreign military experts consider that the DPRK has a considerable lead in submarines that will make it fairly easy to destroy ROK commercial shipping. The ROK has the lead in ship-to-ship missiles. [p. 302]
Short overviews of the naval strength of Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines, and Malaysia. [pp. 302 – 307].
Why China’s Strength Cannot Be Contained
Napoleon once said that China is a sleeping giant. During the 1980s, the giant began to awaken. China is developing rapidly and will find its rightful place in Asia and the World. President Clinton in February 1997 noted that importance of U.S. China economic relations which comprise together 16 percent of all world trade. China is not the third great superpower. China is a developing country with the problems of a developing country. The UN World Development Report gives evidence for that. In the year 2020, Japan and the USA will have still have a per capita GDP 3.4 times that of China. Some play games with statistics to show that China is a hopelessly backward country, while others exaggerate its strength and play it up as a threat to the world. [pp. 308 318]
Some foreign experts try to use Chinese military spending figures to make China out to be a threat. Yet Chinese military spending declined one percent as a proportion of China’s GDP between 1979 and 1994. Chinese military spending is far, far behind that of China and the United States. If the military spending of China, the two Koreas and the ASEAN members were added together it could just barely match that of Japan alone. China needs a peaceful international environment in which to develop. China’s foreign policy promotes international peace. [p. 319 324]
The U.S. Has Many Strategic Responsibilities So China Containment Would Disrupt U.S. Global Strategy
Some people in America want to contain China. Some others realize that this is not in America’s interests. With the end of the Cold War, the U.S. emerged as the only Superpower, but its political and economic influence was weakening. Some American experts realized that the U.S. did not have the power to contain China. Although the U.S. is militarily far more powerful than China, any effort to contain China is constrained by its global strategy that pays considerable attention to Europe, Iraq, the DPRK and other countries. An effort to contain China would disrupt Americas global strategy. Moreover, any U.S. effort to contain China would not be supported by its allies. [pp. 324 329] The first Time magazine bureau chief in Beijing Richard Bernstein in the Spring 1997 issue of the semi-official U.S. journal Foreign Affairs published an article entitled “The Coming Conflict Between the United States and China”. [pp. 331 332]
There has been considerable debate within the U.S. government in recent year over whether U.S. policy with China should be a containment or an engagement policy. Although the prospects for improved U.S. China relations are excellent, we should be aware that there are still people in the U.S. government who see China as an enemy. Many U.S. congressman want to use human rights to interfere in China’s internal affairs. [pp. 333 342]
Chairman Mao: China Will Build A Strong Navy
U.S. naval strategists were inspired by Mahan’s theory of sea power as the key to world power. The history of Chinese naval power recounted on pages 346 365. Wu provides an account of the retaking of the West Spratleys from South Vietnam in 1974 and the protection of the Southern Spratleys from Vietnam in 1988. [pp. 364 370]. Chinese naval vessels visited the U.S., Mexico, Peru and Chile in February 1997 [p. 370 372]. Wu comments on the pride some Chinese living abroad felt to see a ship from their country in a U.S. port.
Two articles are reprinted the appendix: “China’s Aircraft Carrier Dream” [pp. 379 394 reprinted from Shidian July 1997 issue] and China’s Naval Assault Troops 中国海军陆战队 pp. 395 404], “Chinese Naval Exercises in the East China Sea, and Can the Win Two Limited Wars Simultaneously?.
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