Fmr PRC Amb to Ukraine on Russia’s Impending Defeat and International Relations

In his now-censored article Gao Yusheng, former PRC Ambassador to the Ukraine, explains why Russia is losing the war in Ukraine and the effect that may have on the international order. Gao Yusheng’s article appeared on the website of Phoenix News on the afternoon of May 10th and was taken down within hours.

Censored: “Sorry, this web page is gone with the wind…” Error message that comes up on the former URL of this article.

Ambassador Gao Yusheng, now retired, may not have much influence on PRC policy but may reflect the views of some other well-informed Chinese including some academics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), an important think tank for the Party and government. CASS invited him to speak at an internal event; possibly they knew his views when they invited him.

Gao Yusheng (October 1947-) is a retired diplomat of the People’s Republic of China. In 2001 – 2003, he served as Ambassador of the People’s Republic of China to Turkmenistan, in 2003 – 2005, he served as Ambassador of the People’s Republic of China to Uzbekistan, and in 2005 -2007, as Ambassador of the People’s Republic of China to Ukraine. His last post was Deputy Secretary General of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization [1].

Summary of Wikipedia article Gao Yusheng 高玉生

In 2019 the popular PRC magazine Renmin Huabao 人民画报 [China Pictorial] interviewed already-retired Gao Yusheng, who had been one of the PRC Foreign Ministry’s top Russia experts about his experience of the decline of the Soviet Union and his experiences as an ambassador in three of the newly independent countries of the former Soviet Union. I translated this for background in an appendix following Gao Yusheng’s recent article. At the top of the 2019 Renmin Huabao interview is a video inteview with Gao Yusheng with English subtitles. Watch it by clicking on the video at this URL .

A video interview with Gao Yusheng with English subitles is also available — click on the video at the top of the Chinese-language article: Gao Yusheng — China and the Soviet Union.

Sering ambassadors in all countries would need to clear with the governments they represent on public statements on an important matter.  Gao Yusheng however,  is retired.  He is probably a Party member and would be under Party discipline.  Some brave people do break the rules however if they get angry enough.  Gao sounds like a patriotic Chinese to me and perhaps even a loyal Party member.  Party General Secretary Xi wants that to mean everyone should in their views remain closely aligned with the Party Center with Xi at its core. From time to time, some Party members may think differently especially in this year of disasters — Xi’s nightmare come true in the year he is to get another term as Party leader.  What if a loyal Party member sees Xi tying China to a sinking ship? There might see serious collateral damage to China’s international relations. 

Gao’s comments address China’s interests and the debate going on in China beneath the surface: he gave his talk at a closed conference co-sponsored by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences:

1. I am sure the Chinese government is taking notes on all this as David Finkelstein wrote recently on War on the Rocks website   BEIJING’S UKRAINIAN BATTLE LAB    Why the Soviet Union collapsed is a important question for the Chinese Party; it certainly doesn’t want to tread in the dust 【步其后尘】bù qí hòu chén of the Soviet Party. Fear of erosion of the Party and state by corruption and fear of being overmatched by US militarty technology have been constants. Why is Russia losing would certainly be a question that a loyal Party member would want to ask too. 

2.  Certainly Russia wants to stop the war and hold on to its gains; some Chinese might gather from Chinese media reporting that stresses Russian perspectives, that Russia wants peace; those troublesome fascists in Ukraine just need to lay down their arms and listen to reason. I imagine many invaders such as the Japanese in China in World War II might have been willing to get a cease-fire or even a settlement if those pesky resisters of the Imperial forces would just stop fighting.  Japan did make a deal with puppet governments in Manchuria and Shanghai to make a sort of peace one might say.  The tone of the article doesn’t suggest wily Ukraine and the USA opposing peace — Gao states that Russia wants to hold on to its gains while Ukraine wants to keep fighting and repel the invader. Certainly people who have learned the Chinese national anthem (our country is in danger; may our flesh and blood become a new Great Wall) which like the Marseillaise (may the stinking blood of the invaders flow in our fields) and the US national anthem (pesky red coat invaders; or to look at it from another perspective ‘damn those wily Americans who refuse to surrender Baltimore and make peace with His Majesty’) which have a strong flavor of repelling the invader. 

3.  Gao Yusheng mentions re-armed Germany and Japan (though they are already armed; they would become more so) but also remarks that they would remain members of the western alliance arrangement — a comment perhaps aimed at tamping down paranoia about a revanchist Japan.

Some have stated their views in opposition to the Russian invasion; most are keeping their heads down under Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping’s increasingly repressive regime. Five Chinese academics spoke out against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February — PRC Profs: Our Attitude Towards Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine . Xinhua journalist Lin Zhibo, writing in late February, provides a perspective friendly to the Party’s — Lin Zhibo: The Russia-Ukraine Conflict and China’s Position.

Chinese Central Televisions Joint News Broadcast that goes out on nearly all TV channels in China in the early evening has been reporting the Russian invasion as if through official Russian eyes since the start of the invasion. Google Translate can give you a good idea of the flavor of these broadcasts through a (click here) machine translation of the full transcript of each evening’s broadcast.

The Former PRC Ambassador to Ukraine Gao Yusheng: The Dynamics of the Russian-Ukrainian War and the Implications for the International Order

中国驻乌克兰前⼤使⾼⽟⽣:俄乌战争的⾛势和对国际秩序的影响

Former PRC Ambassador to Ukraine Gao Yusheng ⾼⽟⽣

The Impact of the Russian-Ukrainian War on the International Order

Recently, the Forum of Thirty on China’s International Finance and the Department of International Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences hosted an internal video seminar to discuss how the Russia-Ukraine crisis has changed the global financial landscape, its impact on China and how China should respond. Former Chinese Ambassador to Ukraine Mr. Gao Yuanchuan spoke at the seminar. The following is the text of his talk including edits he made after giving his talk.  

The Russo-Ukrainian War is the most important international event of the post-Cold War period. It marks the end of the post-Cold War period and creates in a new international order.

I. Russia’s position in the Russia-Ukraine war has became increasingly passive and unfavorable. Its coming defeat is already clear.

The main reasons why Russia is now heading towards defeat are:

  1. Russia has been declining ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union, a decline that is first of all a continuation of the pre-dissolution Soviet  Union. It is also related to the failures of the internal and external policies of the Russian ruling clique. This process has been exacerbated by Western economic sanctions which have damaged sectors of the Russian economy. The so-called revival or revitalization of Russia under Putin’s leadership is false; it simply does not exist. Russia’s decline is evident in its economic, military, technological, political, and social spheres, and has had a serious negative impact on the Russian military and its war effort.
  2. The failure of the Russian blitzkrieg and the failure to achieve a quick victory signaled the beginning of the Russian defeat. The Russian military’s economic and financial strength, which are not commensurate with its status as a so-called military superpower, could not support a high-tech war costing hundreds of millions of dollars a day. The Russian army’s poverty-driven defeat was evident everywhere on the battlefield. Every day that the war is delayed is a heavy burden for Russia.
  3. Russian military and economic advantages over Ukraine have been offset by the resilience of Ukraine and the huge, sustained and effective aid provided to Ukraine. The generational differences between Russia and the U.S. and other NATO countries in the areas of weapons and technology, military concepts, and modes of warfare make the advantages and disadvantages of both sides even more pronounced.
  4. Modern wars are necessarily hybrid wars, covering military, economic, political, diplomatic, public opinion, propaganda, intelligence, and information. Russia is not only in a passive position on the battlefield, but has lost in other areas. This means that it is only a matter of time before Russia is finally. It is only a matter of time before Russia is finally defeated.
  5. Russia can no longer decide when and how the war will end. Russia is trying to end the war as soon as possible so it can hold on to what it has gained. This has failed. In this sense, Russia has lost its strategic leadership and initiative.

II. The next phase of the war is likely to be more violent and  intense

The possibility of expansion and escalation cannot be ruled out. This is because: the objectives of the two sides are diametrically opposed. Ensuring its sovereignty over Crimea and eastern Ukraine is clearly the bottom line for the Russian side. Ukraine will not concede to Russia on the issue of sovereignty and territorial integrity and will be determined to recover eastern Ukraine and Crimea through war. The U.S., NATO and the EU have repeatedly affirmed their determination to defeat Putin.

U.S. Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs John Sully recently emphasized three goals for the U.S. to achieve in the Russia-Ukraine war.

  1. An independent and liberal Ukraine.
  2. A weakened and isolated Russia.
  3. A strong, united, and resolute West.

In order to achieve these goals, the United States and the NATO EU countries have not only significantly increased their assistance to Ukraine, but the United States also passed the first post-World War II Lend-Lease Act. The U.S. has internationalized and institutionalized its assistance to Ukraine through the 41st Defense Ministerial Conference. More importantly, the direct involvement of the U.S. and Britain in the war is deepening and expanding. All of this suggests that the war will be fought until Russia is defeated and punished.

III. The Russo-Ukrainian War and the New International Order

The Russo-Ukrainian War put an end to the Yalta system and the remnants of the Cold War, and the world began to move toward a new pattern and order of international relations. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia inherited the Soviet Union’s status as a permanent member of the UN Security Council and a military superpower; Russia continued and retained much of the legacy and influence of the former Soviet Union in domestic politics, economy, society, culture and ideology; and Russian foreign policy was a blend of the foreign policies of the former Soviet Union and of the Tsarist Empire.

(1) The central and overriding direction of the Putin regime’s foreign policy is to regard the former Soviet Union as its exclusive sphere of influence and to restore the empire through the mechanism of integration in all spheres of that area under Russian domination.

Russia has been focused and determined to achieve this goal.  Russia has never really recognized the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of other former Soviet states, and has frequently violated their territoriality and sovereignty. The Russian-Ukrainian war has changed this situation dramatically in terms of peace and security in the Eurasian region. After the independence of Ukraine, especially since 2000, the two factions in the country, which had been essentially equally divided between the East and the West leaning factions which were elected to power alternately. Following the annexation of Crimea and the occupation of parts of eastern Ukraine in 2014, anti-Russian sentiment in Ukraine rose and pro-Russian forces began to shrink. Most of the people in Ukraine, not only in the east but also in the south, supported the country’s entry into the EU and NATO.

After the outbreak of the war, the situation in Ukraine has fundamentally changed. The country is united in its resistance to Russia and its salvation. It can be said that Russia has completely lost Ukraine. At the same time, the former Soviet Union, with the exception of white Russia, including the members of the Collective Security Treaty and the Eurasian Economic Union, have refused to support Russia. Russia’s defeat would leave it with no hope of rebuilding its old empire.

In order to gain the international status and influence of the Tsarist Empire or the former Soviet Union, break the existing international order, change the geopolitical map of the Eurasian continent and the world. Russia is obsessed with regrouping the former Soviet states and restoring its alliance or empire. This is in contrast to the U.S. position. This is a fundamental confrontation and conflict with the US. This is the main conflict and sticking point in Russia’s relations with the US.

To a large extent, the conflict between the two sides on this issue is a continuation and remnant of the Cold War between the U.S. and the U.S.S.R., and has a certain ideological color. It also has a certain ideological color. Through this war, the confrontation and struggle between Russia and the U.S. in the context of the American Empire ended in a total defeat for Russia. It has ended ended the post-Cold War or the continuation of the Cold War.

(2) Possible points of the evolution of the international order after the Russo-Ukrainian war.

  1. Russia’s political, economic, military and diplomatic power will be significantly weakened and isolated. Russia will be significantly weakened, isolated and punished. Russia’s power will weaken even more. Russia may be expelled from some important international organizations and its international status will be significantly reduced. Russia’s international status will be significantly reduced.
  2. Ukraine would be removed from Russia’s orbit and sphere of influence (if Russia still has a sphere of influence) and become a member of the great European family. A member of the European family, i.e., a member of the European Union.
  3. Other former Soviet states may experience new and different degrees of de-Russianization. Some countries will move more actively to strengthen their ties with the West.
  4. Japan and Germany, while completely free from the constraints of the defeated countries of World War II and accelerating their armament development, will more actively strive for the status of political powers. Japan and Germany will be more active in seeking the status of political powers. However, they will not break away from the democratic camp, nor will they completely abandon the policy of peaceful development.

The U.S. and other countries will push hard for substantive reform of the UN and other important international organizations. If they are blocked, they may also start a new one. Both may exclude some countries, such as Russia, by drawing ideological lines of so-called independence.


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Listen to the rain at the end of summer and know the autumn [Beijing user]

What is this former ambassador’s attitude? Is Russia really that unbearable? Is it really a bad look? Is there really no reason for Russia’s resistance?

Is there really no reason for Russian resistance? This comment is probably from someone who is anti-China pro-Western. It is more radical than the Associated Press!

2022-05-10 17:21

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DeRode_Linghan [Jiangsu user]

Finally, I can see a realistic and truthful article.

Appendix: 2019 China Pictorial Interview with Retired Gao Yusheng, Chinese diplomat who specialized in the Soviet Union and the newly independent states of the former Soviet Union

Seventy  Years of New China Diplomacy:

Gao Yusheng: “Make more friends, fewer enemies”

September 30, 2019 Renmin Huabao [China Pictorial] in Chinese

  Diplomacy should “make more friends and fewer enemies”, do our own homework and be ready to respond to changes.

  On December 24, 1984, a green international train from East Germany left Beijing, passed through Ulaanbaatar, the capital of Mongolia, and finally arrived at Moscow, the capital of the Soviet Union, in five and a half days. 35-year-old Gao Yusheng was excited and full of anticipation as he watched the scenery outside the train windows change from the still-starry green of Beijing to the stern, icy snow of Moscow. He was on his way to report to the Chinese Embassy in the Soviet Union, where his 30-year career as a diplomat had begun.

  Normalization of Sino-Soviet relations

  Gao Yusheng experienced an important period of adjustment and development of China’s foreign policy in the 1980s, which he sees as a new period in the new Chinese diplomacy. “One very important feature of this ‘new’ is that we took the initiative to make diplomatic adjustments to create an extremely favorable external environment for reform and opening up and modernization.” Gao Yusheng said.

  In 1979, China-US relations entered a new phase with the formal establishment of diplomatic relations. At the same time, China gradually improved its relations with the Soviet Union in a planned and systematic manner.

  In 1982, Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev passed away. China sent Vice Premier and Foreign Minister Huang Hua to attend the funeral, the highest-ranking Chinese official to visit the Soviet Union since relations broke down in the 1960s, breaking the “ice” in relations between the two countries. The next Soviet leader, Andropov, died in 1984, and the next one, Chernenko, died a year later. China sent then-Vice Premier Wan Li and Li Peng to the funeral, and the exchanges between the two sides contributed to the normalization of Sino-Soviet relations.

  At the end of 1984, the Chinese side invited Alshipov, then the first vice chairman of the Soviet Council of Ministers, to visit China. Alshipov was an old friend of China, having worked in China in the 1950s as the general advisor to Soviet experts in China. His visit reminded many Chinese of the years of friendship between China and the Soviet Union and played a positive role in repairing Sino-Soviet relations.

  ”Through several diplomatic efforts, Sino-Soviet relations gradually improved, and cooperative relations between the two countries in various fields, as well as cooperation in United Nations affairs, were gradually launched.” Gao Yusheng said, “The warming of Sino-Soviet relations has not only improved our external environment, but also helped boost our relations with the United States and other Western countries.”

  ”I arrived in Moscow on Dec. 29, 1984. It was New Year’s Eve, and although Moscow had a festive atmosphere, what I felt strongly was the lack of supplies and inefficient waste. In a very large food store on Kalinin Street, there was a long line for meat from upstairs to downstairs, and it took half a day or even a whole day to buy meat. In another supermarket, the attendant behind the counter put the bulk of the oranges in plastic mesh bags, weighed and put on the price tag and then threw a bag of bags from the back to the front, many customers stretched out their hands, throwing a bag to grab a bag. The scene is still fresh in my mind and that of my colleagues.” During his years in the Soviet Union, Gao Yusheng truly felt that Soviet society at that time was not dynamic, the political system was fraught with ills and accumulated, the economy and the level of science and technology developed slowly, and the people’s standard of living was extremely disproportionate to their status as a superpower and the signature of developed socialism. “While I was unable to predict the approximate timing of the collapse of the Soviet Union, I was never optimistic about its future.”

  At that time, China was in the early stages of reform and opening up, and there were disagreements and debates about the path and direction of reform. Some thought it was better to learn from the Soviet Union and to study and learn from its experience in economic reform.

  Gao Yusheng recalls, “After I arrived at the embassy, I wrote many reports to the country, mostly focusing on the Soviet system, especially the shortcomings of the economic system and the insurmountable difficulties and perils of the Soviet economy, emphasizing that there was no way out of the Soviet model. At that time, I had a clear idea that I wanted to do something useful for the country and the nation so that China would avoid repeating the mistakes of the Soviet model.”

  Sino-Soviet relations in the new era were based on the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, emphasizing non-ideological, equal and mutually beneficial relations between the two countries and non-alignment. At the same time, Deng Xiaoping made the removal of three major obstacles, namely the Soviet withdrawal from the Sino-Soviet border, the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the Soviet prompting of the Vietnamese withdrawal from Cambodia, a condition for normalizing relations between the two countries. This was Deng’s way of looking at the strategic overall situation of Chinese diplomacy, grasping the progress of the normalization of Sino-Soviet relations and safeguarding the country’s immediate interests.

  ”The improvement of Sino-Soviet relations not only improved the external environment of the new China, but also helped further develop our relations with the United States and other Western countries, thus creating a new situation in the diplomatic work of the new China and creating a favorable environment and conditions for reform and opening up and socialist modernization.” Gao Yusheng said.

  The normalization of Sino-Soviet relations in the 1980s and China’s policies and practices in this process are a remarkable achievement not only in the history of Sino-Soviet relations but also in the history of Chinese diplomacy.

  Promoting Cooperation and Sticking to Principles

  From 2000 to 2007, Gao Yusheng served as China’s ambassador to Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Ukraine.

  ”The work in these countries was relatively smooth and enjoyable. While safeguarding national interests and implementing foreign policy and relevant instructions, I paid attention to respecting each other, giving due consideration to each other’s interests and needs, making more friends, and promoting cooperation between China and these three countries in many fields such as politics, humanities, economic and trade, security, energy and infrastructure,” Gao Yusheng said, “As a diplomat, especially an ambassador As a diplomat, especially an ambassador, you cannot work in a foreign country without making many friends in order to protect the interests of your country and accomplish the tasks assigned by your country. I have deep feelings about this.”

  China’s diplomacy is based on an all-round diplomatic layout in which “major powers are the key, the periphery is the priority, developing countries are the foundation, and multilateralism is an important stage. China attaches great importance to these countries in Central Asia, and its leaders visit them every year to maintain close ties. As China continues to develop and improve its international status, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Ukraine also attach great importance to the development of relations with China.

  In 2010, Gao Yusheng retired from his post as deputy secretary-general of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Secretariat. More than 20 years of diplomatic career have given Gao Yusheng a strong sense of professional pride and a profound sense of reflection. “Although we are living in different times than before, with challenges to the international order and the central role of the United Nations, and changes in the international status and relations of countries, I think diplomacy is still about ‘making more friends and fewer enemies’, doing our own homework and being ready to respond to changes. This is the most important.”

  Born in 1947, Gao Yusheng served as Third and Second Secretary at the Embassy of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics from 1984 to 1988. From 1992 to 1996, he was First Secretary and Counselor at the Embassy of the Russian Federation, and from 1996 to 2000, he was Counselor at the Department of Eurasia of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and from 2000 to 2007, he was Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of China to Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Ukraine, and from 2007 to 2010, he was Deputy Secretary General of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Secretariat.

  Text: Yin Xing



中国驻乌克兰前⼤使⾼⽟⽣:俄乌战争的⾛势和对国际秩序的影响


近⽇,中国国际⾦融30⼈论坛暨中国社科院国际研究学部主办了⼀次内部视频研讨会,集中讨论俄乌危机对全球⾦融格局带来哪些重⼤的变化?对于中国会产⽣什么影响?中国应该如何应对?中国驻乌克兰前⼤使⾼⽟⽣先⽣在研讨会上发⾔,以下是经他本⼈修改的发⾔内容。

俄乌战争是冷战后最重要的国际事件,它结束了后冷战时期,开启了新的国际秩序。
⼀、俄罗斯在这场战争中的态势⽇益被动和不利,已经显露败象。
俄⾛向失败的主要原因是:

第⼀,苏联解体后俄罗斯始终处于持续衰落的历史进程中,这种衰落⾸先是解体前的苏联衰落的继续,也与俄统治集团在内外政策上的失误有关。⻄⽅制裁⼜加剧加重了这个进程。所谓俄在普京领导下复兴或振兴是根本不存在的伪命题,俄的衰落表现在其经济、军事、科技、政治、社会等各个领域,对俄军及其战⼒也产⽣了严重的消极影响。

第⼆,俄闪电战的失败,未能速战速决预示着俄开始⾛向失败。与其所谓的军事超级⼤国地位极不相称的经济⼒和财⼒实在难以⽀撑⽇耗⼏亿美元的⾼科技战争。俄军因穷致败的窘况在战场上随处可⻅。战事每拖延⼀天对俄都是沉重的负担。

第三,俄在军事经济实⼒等⽅⾯对乌克兰的优势已经被乌的坚决顽强的抗击与⻄⽅国家对乌的巨⼤、持续和有效的援助所抵消。俄与美等北约国家在武器技术装备,军事理念和作战模式等领域的代差使双⽅的优劣之势更加突出。
第四,现代战争都必然是混合战争,涵盖了军事、经济、政治、外交、舆论、宣传、情报、信息等各领域。俄不仅在战场上处境被动,在其他领域都已经打输了。这就决定了俄最终被打败只是时间问题。

第五,这场战争何时结束,以什么⽅式结束已经由不得俄罗斯了。俄⼒图在确保主要既得成果的条件下尽快结束战争的愿望已经落空。从这个意义上来说,俄已失去了战略主导和主动权。

⼆、这场战争下⼀阶段的对抗⼒度和强度可能进⼀步提⾼。
不排除扩⼤和升级的可能性。这是因为:各⽅的⽬标截然相反,南辕北辙。确保克⾥⽶亚的归属和对乌东的占领显然是俄的底线。⽽乌克兰不会在主权和领⼟完整问题上向俄让步,决⼼通过战争收复乌东和克⾥⽶亚。美国、北约和欧盟⼀再申明打败普京的决⼼。

美总统国家安全事务助理沙利⽂不久前强调了美国在俄乌战争上要达到的三个⽬标:
第⼀,独⽴和⾃由的乌克兰;
第⼆,被削弱的和被孤⽴的俄罗斯;
第三,强⼤的、团结的和坚定的⻄⽅。

为了实现这些⽬标,美国和北约欧盟国家不仅显著加⼤了援乌⼒度,美国还在⼆战后⾸次通过了援乌租借法案。美国通过四⼗⼀国防⻓会议已使对乌克兰的援助国际化和机制化。更重要的是,美、英等国直接参与战争的程度在加深,范围在扩⼤。所有这些都表明,这场战争要打到俄罗斯战败并受到惩罚为⽌。

三、俄乌战争与新的国际秩序。
俄乌战争彻底终结了雅尔塔体系和冷战的残余,世界开始⾛向新的国际关系格局和秩序。苏联解体后俄罗斯继承了苏联的联合国安理会常任理事国和军事超级⼤国地位;俄在国内政治、经济、社会、⽂化和意识形态等⽅⾯继续和保留了⼤量前苏联的遗产和影响;俄对外政策是前苏联和沙皇帝国的混合体。

(⼀)普京政权对外政策的核⼼和⾸要⽅向就是把前苏联地区视为其独占势⼒范围,依托俄主宰的各领域⼀体化机制恢复帝国。为此俄⼝是⼼⾮,⻝⾔⽽肥,从未真正承认其他前苏联国家的独⽴,主权和领⼟完整,频繁侵犯它们的领⼟和主权。这是欧亚地区和平、安全俄乌战争极⼤地改变了这种状况。乌克兰独⽴后,特别是从2000年开始,乌国内主张向东和向⻄的两派原本⼤体上势均⼒敌,通过选举轮流执政。2014年俄兼并克⾥⽶亚和占领乌东后,乌国内反俄情绪上升,亲俄势⼒开始萎缩。⼤部分乌克兰⼈,不仅是⻄部的,也包括东部的,都⽀持国家加⼊欧盟和北约。

这次战争爆发后,乌克兰的情况已经发⽣了根本变化,乌国内不分党派,不分地区,不分阶层,团结⼀致,抗俄救国。可以说俄罗斯已经彻底失去了乌克兰。与此同时,前苏各国,除⽩俄罗斯外,包括集体安全条约和欧亚经济联盟成员国都拒绝挺俄。俄战败将使其彻底丧失重整旧⼭河,恢复帝国的可能。

为获得沙俄帝国或前苏联的国际地位后和影响⼒,打破现有的国际秩序,改变欧亚⼤陆和世界的地缘政治版图,俄对重新聚合前苏国家,恢复联盟或帝国抱有执着的追求。这与美国⻄⽅发⽣了根本的对⽴和冲突。这是俄与美⻄⽅关系的主要⽭盾和症结。

双⽅在这个问题上的⻆逐和⽃争在很⼤程度上是美苏冷战的继续和余⾳,也有⼀定的意识形态⾊彩。通过这场战争,俄与美国⻄⽅的这⼀对峙和争夺以俄彻底失败⽽告终。也就最终结束了后冷战或冷战的延续。

(⼆)俄乌战争后国际秩序演变的的⼏个可能的要点:

1、俄在政治、经济、军事、外交等⽅⾯会受到明显的削弱、孤⽴和惩罚。俄国⼒将更加衰弱。可能被逐出⼀些重要的国际组
织,国际地位显著降低。
2、乌克兰将脱离俄的轨道和势⼒范围(俄如果还有势⼒范围的话),成为欧洲⼤家庭的成员,即⻄⽅的的⼀员。
3、其他前苏国家可能出现新的不同程度的去俄化趋势,有些国家会更积极向⻄靠拢。
4、⽇本和德国在完全摆脱⼆战战败国的约束,加快发展军备的同时,会更积极地争取政治⼤国的地位。但不会脱离⻄⽅阵营,也不会完全背弃和平发展的⽅针。
5、美国和其他⻄⽅国家将⼤⼒推动联合国和其他重要国际组织的实质性改⾰,如改⾰受阻,也可能另起炉灶。两者都可能以所谓⺠主⾃由的意识形态划线,排斥俄等⼀些国家。

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听⻛看⾬夏末知秋 [北京⽹友]
这位前⼤使是什么⼼态?俄罗斯真的是那么不堪⼀击吗?真的是吃相难看吗?俄罗斯的抗争真的是没有
理由吗?这可能是⼀个反华亲⻄⽅者。观点⽐美联社还激进!
2022-05-10 17:21
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百炼成钢De罗德_灵菡 [江苏⽹友]
终于看到真真切切如实⽂章了



新中国外交70年|高玉生:“多交朋友,少树敌人”

2019-09-30    英文《中国画报》


  外交工作要“多交朋友,少树敌人”,做好我们自己的功课,随时准备应对变化。
  1984年12月24日,一辆产自东德的绿色国际列车从北京出发,途径蒙古首都乌兰巴托,最终到达目的地苏联首都莫斯科,耗时5天半。35岁的高玉生看着车窗外的景色由北京的尚有星崩儿绿色,变换成了莫斯科肃杀的冰天雪地,他的心情既兴奋又充满期待。他此行是前往中国驻苏联大使馆报道,他30多年的外交官生涯也由此开始。
  中苏关系正常化
  高玉生经历了上世纪80年代中国外交政策调整和发展的重要时期,他认为这是新中国外交的一个新的时期。“这个‘新’有一个很重要的特征,就是我们主动进行外交调整,为改革开放和和现代化建设创造了极为有利的外部环境。”高玉生说。
  1979年,中美正式建立外交关系,中美关系进入了一个新阶段。与此同时,中方逐渐有计划、有步骤地改善与苏联的关系。
  在中苏关系上,邓小平主导的三场“葬礼外交”至今为人称道。1982年,苏联领导人勃列日涅夫辞世。中国派副总理兼外交部长黄华出席葬礼,这是上世纪60年代中苏关系破裂以来访苏的最高级别中国官员,一举打破了两国交往的“坚冰”。继任的苏联领导人安德罗波夫1984年去世,下一任契尔年科一年后也去世。中国先后派时任国务院副总理的万里和李鹏参加葬礼,双方的交流推动了中苏关系的正常化。
  1984年底,中方邀请当时的苏联部长会议第一副主席阿尔希波夫访问中国。阿尔希波夫是中国的老朋友,上世纪50年代他曾在中国工作,担任中国苏联专家总顾问。他的到访让很多中国人回忆起中苏的友好岁月,对于修复中苏关系起到了积极作用。
  “通过几次外交努力,中苏关系逐步改善,两国在各领域的合作关系,以及在联合国事务中的合作都逐步启动。”高玉生说,“中苏关系回暖,不仅改善了我们的外部环境,也有助于推动我们与美国和其他西方国家的关系。”
  “我是1984年12月29日到达莫斯科的。当时正值新年前夕,莫斯科虽然也有节日气氛,但我让感受强烈的是物资匮乏和低效浪费。商店里买东西的队伍排得老长,在加里宁大街一个很大的食品商店,买肉的长队从楼上排到楼下,没有半天甚至一整天的时间是买不到肉的。在另一个超市,服务员在柜台后面把散装的橘子用塑料网袋分装,称重并贴上价签后一袋一袋从后面扔到前台,众多的顾客都伸着手,扔出一袋抢一袋。这情景令我和同事们至今记忆犹新。”在苏联工作的几年,高玉生真切地感受到当时的苏联社会没有活力,政治体制弊端丛生且积重难返,经济和科学技术水平发展缓慢,人民生活水平与其超级大国的地位和发达社会主义的招牌极不相称。“我虽然未能预测苏联解体的大致时间,但始终不看好苏联的前途。”
  当时,中国正处在改革开放初期,对于改革的道路和方向是有分歧和争论的。有人认为还是要学习苏联,研究和借鉴苏联经济改革的经验。
  高玉生回忆说:“到使馆工作后,我给国内写了很多报告,多是侧重讲苏联体制,特别是经济体制的弊病和苏联经济难以克服的困难与危局,强调苏联模式没有出路。当时我的想法很明确,自己要为国家和民族做些有益的事情,使中国避免重蹈苏联模式的覆辙。”
  新时期的中苏关系是以和平共处五项原则为基础,强调两国关系的非意识形态化、平等互利、不结盟。同时,邓小平把消除三大障碍,即苏联从中苏边境的撤军,苏联从阿富汗撤军,苏联促使越南从柬埔寨撤军作为实现两国关系正常化的条件。这是邓小平从中国外交的战略大局着眼,把握中苏关系正常化的进度,维护国家的切身利益。
  “中苏关系的改善,不仅改善了新中国的外部环境,也有助于进一步发展我们与美国及其他西方国家的关系,从而开创了新中国外交工作的新局面,为改革开放和社会主义现代化建设创造了有利的环境和条件”。高玉生说。
  上世纪80年代中苏关系正常化和中国在这一进程中的政策和做法不仅在中苏关系史上,在中国外交史上都是一件了不起的成绩。
  推动合作与坚持原则
  2000年至2007年,高玉生先后担任中国驻土库曼斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦和乌克兰大使。
  “在这几个国家的工作比较顺利也很愉快。我在维护国家利益,执行外交政策和有关指示的同时,注意尊重对方,适当考虑对方的利益和需要,多交朋友,推动了中国与这三个国家在政治、人文、经贸、安全、能源和基础设施等多领域的合作”高玉生说,“作为外交官,特别是大使,在异国他乡工作,要维护本国的利益,完成国内交办的任务,不多交朋友是不行的。我对此深有感触。”
  中国外交秉持“大国是关键,周边是首要,发展中国家是基础,多边是重要舞台”的全方位外交布局。中国非常重视中亚这几个国家,中国领导人每年都会出访这几个国家,以保持密切联系。而随着中国的不断发展和国际地位的提升,土库曼斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、乌克兰也非常重视发展同中国的关系。
  2010年,高玉生从上海合作组织秘书处副秘书长的岗位退休,20多年的外交生涯让高玉生有着强烈的职业自豪感和深刻的思考体悟。“尽管现在所处的时代与从前不同,国际秩序和联合国的核心作用都面临挑战,各国的国际地位和关系也在发生变化,但我觉得外交工作还是要‘多交朋友,少树敌人’,做好我们自己的功课,随时准备应对变化,这是最重要的。”
  高玉生:1947年出生。1984年至1988年,任驻苏维埃社会主义共和国联盟大使馆三秘、二秘。其后在外交部政策研究室工作。1992至1996年任驻俄罗斯联邦大使馆一秘、参赞。1996至2000年任外交部欧亚司参赞。2000至2007年,先后任中国驻土库曼斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦和乌克兰特命全权大使。2007年至2010年,任上海合作组织秘书处副秘书长。
  文:殷星

About 高大伟 David Cowhig

After retirement translated, with wife Jessie, Liao Yiwu's 2019 "Bullets and Opium", and have been studying things 格物致知. Worked 25 years as a US State Department Foreign Service Officer including ten years at US Embassy Beijing and US Consulate General Chengdu and four years as a China Analyst in the Bureau of Intelligence and Research. Before State I translated Japanese and Chinese scientific and technical books and articles into English freelance for six years. Before that I taught English at Tunghai University in Taiwan for three years. And before that I worked two summers on Norwegian farms, milking cows and feeding chickens.
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19 Responses to Fmr PRC Amb to Ukraine on Russia’s Impending Defeat and International Relations

  1. J Noh says:

    Much of what Gao Y. says matches my own guesses based on open source info, made while sitting in an armchair in Western Europe some distance from any of the crucial actors. But I would seek to refine one sentence because some nuance is missing.

    > More importantly, the direct involvement of the U.S. and Britain in the war is deepening and expanding. All of this suggests that the war will be fought until Russia is defeated and punished.

    Firstly, I would suggest the Western outlook distinguishes between the Russian people and the present Russian government under Putin. The West prefers other leaders who represent stable reliable actors who like helping us to do lots of trade with their country. The West really likes trade, but is sometimes rubbish at cultural sensitivity. Its blundering should not be repeatedly misread through a lens of 1950s Stalinist paranoia as being malicious. The West has always wanted Russian people, and everyone else, to join the trade club properly. We favour democracy as the means to support stable longer-term governance reliably open to trade. So getting Russian forces out of Ukraine stabilises Ukraine, and then getting Putin to step down, or bringing more democracy to Russia favours Western goals in stablising Russia for more cooperation and trade. Any tendency for Western economic “hegemony” is no longer a purely American or UK or European matter because big finance is more mobile these days. Money moves where it wants to, and Putin has made Russia unattractive at present.
    The main Western goal is arguably not Russian defeat beyond pushing Russian forces out of Ukraine, it is more a strategic goal of restoring Russia’s openness to (uncorrupted) trade for the future in the belief that this will be beneficial for all parties. All remaining ideological qualms are really about finessing cooperation over international taxation regimes and aid programs to support favourable transnational redistribution. Most of that is about scientific formulas these days, not politics.
    So the West is digging in because the war in Ukraine exists now and is an uncomfortable tragedy, but really we want a change of mindset in Russia about the future.

    Liked by 2 people

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  8. Gunnar René Øie says:

    > Some countries will move more actively to strengthen their ties with the West.
    I think this is true, and I also think it’s possible that some of the Central Asian countries, or even some in the Caucasus region, might choose to deepen their relationship with China. Countries like Armenia and Georgia might be better served by a good relationship to both the west and China.

    Like

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